The Chris Squared Thread

[sniper]

This happened once. If he started riding every race like that it would be really suspicious but why not give him the benefit of the doubt for now? Didnt you see how useless he/Garmin were in the grand tours this year?

benefit of the doubt that he's cleanER than others. sure. But a lot of dopers would ve loved to win that stage. Same for LBL.
Those are two huge victories.

And I dont think Hesjedal climbed as fast as Froome or Horner when he won his giro (not that that means he was clean, but at least he was less suspicious imo)

well yeah.
but in terms of how "likely" it is that he won clean, i'd say "unlikely".
there's no question he doped in the past, and hasn't come clean about that yet.

edit: I never would've guessed that I'm more skeptic than you

 

[roundabout]

he got sick in one and crashed out in the other

he also may not be a GT rider dope or not

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

This happened once. If he started riding every race like that it would be really suspicious but why not give him the benefit of the doubt for now? Didnt you see how useless he/Garmin were in the grand tours this year?

And I dont think Hesjedal climbed as fast as Froome or Horner when he won his giro (not that that means he was clean, but at least he was less suspicious imo)

So, according to Walsh logic, he doped for LBL and not for the Tour.

RE - Hesjedal, he had a pretty nice time on Pampeago, off course a big tailwind. Double Pampeago that was of course.

 

[thehog]

I may have missed this somewhere in the thread or maybe I'm missing some piece of information, but can someone explain how having the srm data for other riders could lead you to revise Horner's weight?

In Milan earlier this year I saw a prototype of Di2 with ANT+.

Imagine the possibilities with this dataset.

Soon to correlate optimum gearing with power, candace and heart rate.

Will probably complete the picture for DSs to control riders but its going to make climbing only get faster.

Wiggins will refuse to use it but I'm sure Froome will.

If the UCI allow disc breaks, Di2 with ANT+ we're not far off programming an entire race course prior to a stage.

The one JV proposal I like is radio TV - allowing this data printed up on the screens from rider data.

Cyclijg coverage lacks statistics badly. It needs it. The scenery is not enough for 4 hours.

See baseball and cricket.

 

[D-Queued]

In Milan earlier this year I saw a prototype of Di2 with ANT+.

Imagine the possibilities with this dataset.

Soon to correlate optimum gearing with power, candace and heart rate.

Will probably complete the picture for DSs to control riders but its going to make climbing only get faster.

Wiggins will refuse to use it but I'm sure Froome will.

If the UCI allow disc breaks, Di2 with ANT+ we're not far off programming an entire race course prior to a stage.

The one JV proposal I like is radio TV - allowing this data printed up on the screens from rider data.

Cyclijg coverage lacks statistics badly. It needs it. The scenery is not enough for 4 hours.

See baseball and cricket.

What does Candace have to do with this plot?

She isn't involved, is she?

Dave.

 

[thehog]

What does Candace have to do with this plot?

She isn't involved, is she?

Dave.

$50 for a private dance.

Hands by your sides.

 

[sittingbison]

I asked Vetoo how he came to his calculation, this is what he sent me...

I may have missed this somewhere in the thread or maybe I'm missing some piece of information, but can someone explain how having the srm data for other riders could lead you to revise Horner's weight?

I tooo have a question on this issue Race Radio. And as you know I have been carrying on at length about Wiggins weight for a year, and recently Froome and Horner. I'm certainly not an expert on power determination, and do enjoy the various discussions.

Vetooo normalises Pinots SRM (-1.43%). I presume when he says:

my estimation of Pinots power output is 378.9 W

the estimation is determined mathematically using Pinots weight of 65kg?. So he has a comparison of measured power (from SRM) and estimated power (using weight). Or am I completely off track and he is actually somehow determining a "w/o descent" factor?

VeTooo then normalises Horners data using Pinots factor. I admit I am very confused at this point, as its positive 1.43% when I presumed it would be negative 1.43% - it is unclear to me from the tweet if the 375.6W is SRM or estimated (sorry for being a nincompoop).

My estimation of Horner's power output (w/o descent): 375.6 W | 375.6 x 1.0143 = 380.97 W

Anyway all this normalisation is a bit beside my point, as VeTooo then uses a weight of 61kg to establish 6.25W/kg for Horner:

380.97 W / 61 kg = 6.25 W/kg

What I cannot understand is where VeTooo got the weight of 61kg for Horner given his published weight is 65kg and his wiki weight is 63.5kg. It is unclear to me from the figures above just where 61kg came from, and other than using Pinots published weight to come up with an estimated power figure to be used against the measured power figure how it can be used to determine Horners actual weight.

And other posters please don't jump in with ridicule or baiting. I am genuinely interested in the answer and seeing just where I am mistaken.

 

[thehog]

I tooo have a question on this issue Race Radio. And as you know I have been carrying on at length about Wiggins weight for a year, and recently Froome and Horner. I'm certainly not an expert on power determination, and do enjoy the various discussions.

Vetooo normalises Pinots SRM (-1.43%). I presume when he says:
the estimation is determined mathematically using Pinots weight of 65kg?. So he has a comparison of measured power (from SRM) and estimated power (using weight). Or am I completely off track and he is actually somehow determining a "w/o descent" factor?

VeTooo then normalises Horners data using Pinots factor. I admit I am very confused at this point, as its positive 1.43% when I presumed it would be negative 1.43% - it is unclear to me from the tweet if the 375.6W is SRM or estimated (sorry for being a nincompoop).


Anyway all this normalisation is a bit beside my point, as VeTooo then uses a weight of 61kg to establish 6.25W/kg for Horner:


What I cannot understand is where VeTooo got the weight of 61kg for Horner given his published weight is 65kg and his wiki weight is 63.5kg. It is unclear to me from the figures above just where 61kg came from, and other than using Pinots published weight to come up with an estimated power figure to be used against the measured power figure how it can be used to determine Horners actual weight.

And other posters please don't jump in with ridicule or baiting. I am genuinely interested in the answer and seeing just where I am mistaken.

Without decent is truncating the final section of the stage which levels out and actually drops off. That just keeps the climbing power levels and time sane - ie a heavier rider can decend faster in the final section etc.

Veetoo hasn't actually released this information. It's just an estimated power range based on 61kg weight for Horner on a private conversation between RR & V2.

61kg is an estimation from looking at other riders weights from known SRM files and stating that Horner is lighter than he says he is.

Which is fine. But if you are comparing Horner to Froome and leaving Froome at 71kg then it doesn't make sense. You'd have to at least apply the estimated reduction in weight to Froome also.

That's where the equation becomes unstuck.

In addition VeeToo stated "full drafting" for Horner because he rode behind Nibali and JRod for almost the entire climb.

That matters.

There are a lot of variables. Estimation is fine. But if you use it for comparative purposes well it doesn't work very well.

You could take any rider reduce their weight, compare it another and say they are faster.

They are not.

 

[Race Radio]

Without decent is truncating the final section of the stage which levels out and actually drops off. That just keeps the climbing power levels and time sane - ie a heavier rider can decend faster in the final section etc.

Veetoo hasn't actually released this information. It's just an estimated power range based on 61kg weight for Horner on a private conversation between RR & V2.

61kg is an estimation from looking at other riders weights from known SRM files and stating that Horner is lighter than he says he is.

Which is fine. But if you are comparing Horner to Froome and leaving Froome at 71kg then it doesn't make sense. You'd have to at least apply the estimated reduction in weight to Froome also.

That's where the equation becomes unstuck.

In addition VeeToo stated "full drafting" for Horner because he rode behind Nibali and JRod for almost the entire climb.

That matters.

There are a lot of variables. Estimation is fine. But if you use it for comparative purposes well it doesn't work very well.

You could take any rider reduce their weight, compare it another and say they are faster.

They are not.

Yup, that is it.....why do you pretend like it has not been explained? The measurements are also based on multiple other riders weights and SRM but they have not allowed their information to be released publicly

I have also pointed out multiple times that we do not know Froome's weight or have his SRM files and how this makes it more challenging to estimate his numbers. Because of this I have added climbing times on the same climbs, VAM, and W/kg calculations. These measurements were used extensively to compare Froome with Armstrong......but they are ridiculed as junk science when used to compare Froome with Horner.....humm, selective?

 

[thehog]

Sorry just saw the "don't jump in".

Delete if you feel appropriate.

 

[thehog]

Yup, that is it.....why do you pretend like it has not been explained? The measurements are also based on multiple other riders weights and SRM but they have not allowed their information to be released publicly

I have also pointed out multiple times that we do not know Froome's weight or have his SRM files and how this makes it more challenging to estimate his numbers. Because of this I have added climbing times on the same climbs, VAM, and W/kg calculations. These measurements were used extensively to compare Froome with Armstrong......but they are ridiculed as junk science when used to compare Froome with Horner.....humm, selective?

Just trying to help explain. Not trying to upset you. We're all being selective in our analysis. Yourself included.

Horner's weight is still an estimation. It's not "real" or "actual" as you stated.

Just to be clear on that.

I actually agree with you. But it's still just estimation. It's not exacting evidence.

Thanks for the clarifications.

This is why I come back to Prati Di Tivo in March.

Froome v Horner for a very good comparative study - as they were actually racing each other.

Generally that's the best analysis that can be done.

 

[sittingbison]

Yup, that is it.....why do you pretend like it has not been explained? The measurements are also based on multiple other riders weights and SRM but they have not allowed their information to be released publicly...

I still cannot see how Horners weight of 61kg is determined by the multiple weights and SRM of other riders.

Why has VeTooo used 61kg and not 65kg?

380.97/65 = 5.86W/kg

380.97/63.5 = 6.00W/kg

380.97/61 = 6.25W/kg

 

[Race Radio]

Just trying to help explain. Not trying to upset you. We're all being selective in our analysis. Yourself included.

Horner's weight is still an estimation. It's not "real" or "actual" as you stated.

Just to be clear on that.

I actually agree with you. But it's still just estimation. It's not exacting evidence.

Thanks for the clarifications.

This is why I come back to Prati Di Tivo in March.

Froome v Horner for a very good comparative study - as they were actually racing each other.

Generally that's the best analysis that can be done.

Why is it that everyone on this board jumped to compare Armstrong and Froome climbing times, VAM and W/kg calculations but comparing Froome and Horner using these methods is claimed to be junk?

Regarding the drafting, affect of drafting isn't significant on very steep climbs, like Angliru. There was little, if any wind (note the fog) and Horner also went to the front multiple times.

 

[thehog]

Why is it that everyone on this board jumped to compare Armstrong and Froome climbing times, VAM and W/kg calculations but comparing Froome and Horner using these methods is claimed to be junk?

You're acting too sensitively.

The reason junk comes up is because you reduced Horner's weight but not Froome's.

You're not comparing the data one on one.

People compare the climbing times of Froome v Armstrong because both were trying to win the Tour. Same position, same climb, same context - time v time.

No reductions. No shortening or one climb for one rider etc. just time vs. time.

Why people are saying things like junk is because you changed Horner's weight, kept Froome's the same and then said very confidently - "Based on the evidence of Horner's real weight" and VAM - "Horner wins".

I don't think anyone is denying the science. Not at all. What is being questioned is the method.

And the method of reducing Horner's weight on visual alone and not actual science is troubling.

If we applied the same reduction is Froome's weight well, yeah, he's at 6.2 as well.

It's the method used. Not the science nor the comparison.

Now I know you're going to say Horner climbed Angurlia faster than Froome. And yes he did. But the roles were so different. It's clear from watching the race that Froome at that point wasn't trying to win the race - he lead wiggins the whole way. It hits 23% at the end when Horner attacked. The first 10km is around 7.5% - drafting matters.

You've been in bike racing enough to know about gearing, drafting and being a dom. It's matters and it matters significantly. Pivotal in fact.

 

[Race Radio]

People compare the climbing times of Froome v Armstrong because both were trying to win the Tour. Same position, same climb, same context - time v time.

No reductions. No shortening or one climb for one rider etc. just time vs. time.

Funny how you ignore the Pena Cabarga. Horner and Froome, both going full gas to win the stage and put time on rivals. Horner was 30 seconds faster. Certainly Wiggins slowed Froome down......but he was 1:40 down on a 40 minute climb. I doubt he slowed him by 1:40

As I have said over and over, I calculated Horner weight accurately because we have the data points to do so. We do not have the same for Froome, and this is a problem....as I have written over and over.

 

[thehog]

Funny how you ignore the Pena Cabarga. Horner and Froome, both going full gas to win the stage and put time on rivals. Horner was 30 seconds faster. Certainly Wiggins slowed Froome down......but he was 1:40 down on a 40 minute climb. I doubt he slowed him by 1:40

As I have said over and over, I calculated Horner weight accurately because we have the data points to do so. We do not have the same for Froome, and this is a problem....as I have written over and over.

I've not ignored anything. Horner is *** as is Froome.

Froome in 2011 Vuelta was green. The guy had never won a race in his life. He was 26 minutes of Sagan on a flat Tour of Poland 3 weeks earlier. Literally no one had even heard of him.

If Froome 2011 was climbing like Horner in 2013 I think we should all just walk away from the sport full stop!

Horner love him or hate him has had 20 years in the sport. He has experience. Froome 2011 was better known for hanging onto motorcycles and riding sideways up hills - and that's not even me joking. That's what he was at the time - completely green, by his own admission.

Context is important.

How you can compare Froome 2011 when the guy was more familiar with the grupetto than how to climb mountains like Chris-Armstrong-Bruyneel-Horner in 2013 is crazy talk.

Sure good fun. But Froome 2012/13 is clearly a more realistic comparison.

But it's ok to do. No stopping you comparing them. But the results don't mean a lot.

Drafting is important just as important as your "tailwind" on Ventoux.

Drafting is the sport. Any guy who steps on a race bike for the first time learns that cycling in behind another rider saves energy.

That's basic stuff.

Re: Horner's weight. It's a guess. That's it. You can only guess by looking at him and judging by the weights you know for other riders - assuming they are telling the truth. It's not accurate in the slightest.

 

[Ferminal]

Nope, Grappe said Froome hasn't improved since 2011, we should accept without condition this loose description, right?

 

[thehog]

I still cannot see how Horners weight of 61kg is determined by the multiple weights and SRM of other riders.

Why has VeTooo used 61kg and not 65kg?

380.97/65 = 5.86W/kg

380.97/63.5 = 6.00W/kg

380.97/61 = 6.25W/kg

Froome states he's 71kg.

Apply the same 4kg drop and I'm fairly sure the Dawg is at 6.2+.

 

[thehog]

As I have said over and over, I calculated Horner weight accurately because we have the data points to do so. We do not have the same for Froome, and this is a problem....as I have written over and over.

Just rereading this.

Why don't you have datapoints for Froome?

Why can't you apply the same method behind Honer's reduction in weight to Froome?

Froome publishes his weight.

Do you really think he's 69/71kg per the Sky page. At the Tour?

Whatever method you used for Horner you can apply to Froome, no?

If you're comparing both riders then, yes.

 

[Race Radio]

Nope, Grappe said Froome hasn't improved since 2011, we should accept without condition this loose description, right?

While I question many of Grappe's conclusions it should be pretty easy for him to compare numbers so this has some validity. I do not see huge difference in Froome's climbing from late 2011 to 2013.....His TT ability made a pretty dramatic change. He also fixed that pacing issues that made him questionable on longer climbs

 

[thehog]

Nope, Grappe said Froome hasn't improved since 2011, we should accept without condition this loose description, right?

We should. His weight is the same. Not changed.

 

[Race Radio]

Why can't you apply the same method behind Honer's reduction in weight to Froome?

Pretty simple. We don't have accurate weight and SRM files from other riders for the Tour. There was much discussion and calculation of Froome numbers during the Tour but little to go on. Since then there has been a strong effort to get SRM files and weights from riders. Many would not give any info until after the Vuelta.

I think the dam has burst. I expect more and more riders will share their info in the future.

 

[thehog]

Pretty simple. We don't have accurate weight and SRM files from other riders for the Tour. There was much discussion and calculation of Froome numbers during the Tour but little to go on. Since then there has been a strong effort to get SRM files and weights from riders. Many would not give any info until after the Vuelta.

I think the dam has burst. I expect more and more riders will share their info in the future.

So why do the comparison with a reduced weight for Horner?

If the data is so 'loose', why even be bothered in the comparison as the results will clearly be invalid.

I know you said someone asked you. But you've been very persistent on this point and with much confidence.

Sounds to me on a 'reduced weighted Horner' your not in a position to make the comparison with Froome through lack of data on Froome.

Which is why I kept coming back to Prati or leaving the weights as stated.

There's no reliable evidence to suggest Horner was faster than Froome Vuelta v Tour.

It's simply not there.

Unless you modify Horner.

 

[Race Radio]

So why do the comparison with a reduced weight for Horner?

If the data is so 'loose', why even be bothered in the comparison as the results will clearly be invalid.

I know you said someone asked you. But you've been very persistent on this point and with much confidence.

Sounds to me on a 'reduced weighted Horner' your not in a position to make the comparison with Froome through lack of data on Froome.

Which is why I kept coming back to Prati or leaving the weights as stated.

There's no reliable evidence to suggest Horner was faster than Froome Vuelta v Tour.

It's simply not there.

Unless you modify Horner.

Based on your new position there is no reliable evidence that Froome is anywhere close to Armstrong.

 

[thehog]

Based on your new position there is no reliable evidence that Froome is anywhere close to Armstrong.

Maybe I'll reduce Armstrong weight to make him faster than Froome?

Whether you like it not Froome rode faster than Armstrong.

No modifications or manipulating of the data.

Fact.