The CQ "Career in Decline" game 2014

[vladimir]

Hi
I thought I submitted my team before the 19th, but I am not listed in the first post. I have re-sent it now, and hope everything is ok...

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Very interesting submissions, especially in the ways people tried to use up places in the squad cheaply. I rejected some long retired riders, but some who scarcely rode in 2013 and have retired for 2014 were included, while others really deeply investigated the deepest ranks of obscurity to find riders that are not even household names in their own households, so that even if they might score higher this year than last, it will not be by more than a small handful of points.

There are some very high scorers in there as well, and some who have been tipped on the main game as riders who will make a profit this year.

213 riders chosen, of whom 148, identified below by an asterisk, are unique picks.


18-Valve
ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor*
BOOKWALTER Brent
BROWN Nathan*
COSTA Rui Alberto Faria*
DEIGNAN Philip
EARLE Nathan
FOMINYKH Daniil
GILBERT Jerôme*
HONDO Danilo
MARTINEZ Yannick
NIBALI Antonio*
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel
OCHOA Carlos Jose*
TXURRUKA ANSOLA Amets
VAN DER LIJKE Nick*

Afrank
ACEVEDO CALLE Janier Alexis
ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David
CUNEGO Damiano
DEIGNAN Philip
FUGLSANG Jakob
GADRET John
MILLAR David
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel
PETACCHI Alessandro*
RENSHAW Mark
SICARD Romain*
WIGGINS Bradley*
ZAUGG Oliver*
ZOIDL Riccardo
ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar*

Al Pacino
EISEL Bernhard
FARRAR Tyler*
FISCHER Murilo Antonio*
GADRET John
GARATE CEPA Juan Manuel*
GOLAS Michal*
LOSADA ALGUACIL Alberto*
MOURIS Jens*
MURAVYEV Dmitriy*
NOCENTINI Rinaldo
POPOVYCH Yaroslav
POZZATO Filippo*
REBELLIN Davide
SØRENSEN Nicki
SPILAK Simon

Armchair Cyclist
CHICCHI Francesco
CURVERS Roy*
EISEL Bernhard
ENGOULVENT Jimmy*
EVANS Cadel
FERRARI Roberto*
HANSEN Adam*
HINAULT Sébastien
HOUSE Kristian*
LARSSON Gustav Erik*
LEUKEMANS Björn*
REBELLIN Davide
SIJMENS Nico*
SPILAK Simon
ZANDIO ECHAIDE Xabier*

Asdfgh101
BILLE Gaëtan
BOUCHER David
BUTS Vitaliy
DELFOSSE Sébastien
GRETCHYN Sergiy
KOSTYUK Denys*
KROON Karsten*
PETROV Evgeni*
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim*
ROVNY Ivan
SCHILLINGER Andreas*
SULZBERGER Wesley*
URTASUN PEREZ Pablo
VAN HUMMEL Kenny
VAUGRENARD Benoît*

Bicing
BRAICO Alexandr*
BRAVO OIARBIDE Garikoitz*
CHICCHI Francesco
CHIPONGO Bright*
CIOLEK Gerald
FERRARI BARCELO Fabricio*
HOFLAND Moreno
HORNER Chris
LOVELOCK Jonathan*
MACHADO Tiago Jose Pinto*
NECHITA Andrei*
SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel*
TJALLINGII Maarten*
URTASUN PEREZ Pablo
VOECKLER Thomas

del1962
CANCELLARA Fabian*
CHO HO SUNG
DAY Ben*
EVANS CADEL
HORNER CHRIS
IMPEY Daryl
KANO TOMOYA*
LAMPIER Steven*
MARIN Matej*
REBIEWSKI Jaroslaw*
SUZUKI YUZURU*
VANDENBERGH Stijn
VICIOSO ARCOS Angel
VOECKLER THOMAS
WEBER Cleberson Almeida*

DJSprtsch
ACEVEDO CALLE Janier Alexis
BENNATI Daniele*
FEDRIGO Pierrick
MALAGUTI Alessandro
METLUSHENKO Yuri
MOUREY Francis*
MUCELLI Davide*
NOCENTINI Rinaldo
PAOLINI Luca
PERAUD Jean-Christophe*
POPKOV Vitaliy*
ROGINA Radoslav
TUFT Svein
VAN HUMMEL Kenny
WEGMANN Fabian*

Fauniera
CAPPELLE Andy *
CIOLEK Gerald
FOTHEN Markus *
FUGLSANG Jakob
FUKUSHIMA Shinichi*
GIORDANI Leonardo*
HORNER Chris
JOUFFROY Arnaud *
KANKOVSKY Alois
MARTINEZ Yannick
NOVAL GONZALEZ Benjamin*
SCHULZE Andre*
SLAGTER Tom-Jelte*
VAN LEIJEN Joost*
WEENING Pieter

Florecita
ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David
BOOKWALTER Brent
DEIGNAN Philip
EARLE Nathan
GAUDIN Damien*
IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka*
LANCASTER Brett
MAES Nikolas
MANCEBO PEREZ Francisco
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel
REBELLIN Davide
ROVNY Ivan
SØRENSEN Nicki
VICIOSO ARCOS Angel
ZOIDL Riccardo

Fus87
ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David
DANIELSON Tom*
DEIGNAN Philip
GADRET John
KANKOVSKY Alois
LAMMERTINK Maurits*
MEISEN Marcel *
OLSSON Michael
PETROV Danail Andonov
REBELLIN Davide
ROGERS Rico Dene
ROVNY Ivan
URTASUN PEREZ Pablo
VICHOT Arthur
ZABALLA GUTIERREZ Constantino*

Geraint Too Fast
BILLE Gaëtan
BLYTHE Adam
BOOKWALTER Brent
DEBUSSCHERE Jens*
DEIGNAN Philip
FOMINYKH Daniil
HORNER Chris
LOH Sea Keong*
METLUSHENKO Yuri
RODRIGUEZ Fred
ROGERS Rico Dene
ROVNY Ivan
VANDENBERGH Stijn
VICIOSO ARCOS Angel
WEENING Pieter

Hilltop Finisher
ARNDT Nikias*
CHICCHI Francesco
CUNEGO Damiano
EARLE Nathan
ENGER Sondre Holst*
GONÇALVES Jose Isidro Maciel
HORNER Chris
IRIZAR ARANBURU Markel*
MALAGUTI Alessandro
MARTINEZ Yannick
PONZI Simone*
ROGERS Rico Dene
VAN POPPEL Boy*
WAGNER Robert*
ZOIDL Riccardo

Ingsve
AMORISON Frédéric*
ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David
BUTS Vitaliy
CIOLEK Gerald
EICHLER Markus*
HORNER Chris
KANKOVSKY Alois
MANCEBO PEREZ Francisco
METLUSHENKO Yuri
NEPOMNYACHSHIY Yevgeni*
RASCH Gabriel
ROGINA Radoslav
SISKEVICIUS Evaldas*
VAN EMDEN Jos*
WETTERHALL Alexander*

Italian Gigolo
BONILLA BONILLA Jose Adrian*
BOUCHER David
CHO Ho Sung
FONTE Cesar Andre Lima*
FROLOV Igor*
GEIRSSON Hafsteinn Aegir*
GIL MARTINEZ Tomas Aurelio*
HORGAN Sam*
HORNER Chris
LANGLOIS Bruno*
LONGO BORGHINI Paolo*
NIBALI Vincenzo*
PINEAU Cédric*
PULIDO NARANJO Luis*
REBELLIN Davide

Josedin
Golcer Jure*
HINAULT Sébastien
Hondo Danilo
Horner Chris
KLÖDEN Andreas*
MANCEBO PEREZ Francisco
Mazzanti Luca*
Menchov Denis*
Millar David
Mizourov Andrey
Petrov Danail Andonov
Rebellin Davide
SINKEWITZ Patrik*
Tuft Svein
WEENING Pieter

Karaev
CANOLA Marco*
HONDO Danilo
IMPEY Daryl
JACQUES-MAYNES Ben*
JURCO Matej*
KEIZER Martijn*
LEBAS Thomas*
MIZOUROV Andrey
MOLLEMA Bauke*
PAOLINI Luca
POLIVODA Oleksandr*
REBELLIN Davide
RENSHAW Mark
SAPA Marcin*
VICHOT Arthur

Leadbelly
BILLE Gaëtan
BOOKWALTER Brent
DEHAES Kenny
DELFOSSE Sébastien
GEBREMARIAM GRMAY Tsgabu*
GESLIN Anthony*
GONÇALVES Jose Isidro Maciel
KANKOVSKY Alois
KOLOBNEV Alexandr*
MANCEBO PEREZ Francisco
PAREDES HERNANDEZ Jonathan Felipe*
REBELLIN Davide
RODRIGUEZ Fred
SEELDRAEYERS Kevin
VENTOSO ALBERDI Francisco Jose*

Ruudz0r
DAMUSEAU Thomas*
DUMOULIN Samuel*
EBSEN John Kronborg*
FERNANDEZ CRUZ Delio*
HOLLENSTEIN Reto*
HUSHOVD Thor
IMPEY Daryl
KANKOVSKY Alois
POZDNYAKOV Kirill*
ROGERS Rico Dene
SANTOS Vergilio Martins*
SPILAK Simon
TAKENOUCHI Yu*
VANTOMME Maxime*
WANG Meiyin*

Search
ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David
DEHAES Kenny
DELGADO ORTEGA Yeison Rogelio*
EDET Nicolas*
GRETCHYN Sergiy
HERRADA LOPEZ Jesus*
HOFLAND Moreno
IMPEY Daryl
KANKOVSKY Alois
MAES Nikolas
METLUSHENKO Yuri
ROVNY Ivan
TXURRUKA ANSOLA Amets
VELLA Jason*
ZOIDL Riccardo

Skidmark
ARROYO DURAN David*
BALLAN Alessandro*
FEDRIGO Pierrick
HOLOWESKO Mark*
LANCASTER Brett
METLUSHENKO Yuri
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel
NOCENTINI Rinaldo
PALOMARES VILLAPLANA Adrian*
RENSHAW Mark
ROGERS Rico Dene
SCARPONI Michele*
TXURRUKA ANSOLA Amets
VANDENBERGH Stijn
WEENING Pieter

Vladimir
DEHAES Kenny
FRANK Mathias*
HUSHOVD Thor
KANKOVSKY Alois
KONONENKO Mykhaylo*
KUCHYNSKI Aliaksandr*
MARANGONI Alan*
MARTENS Paul
MINARD Sébastien*
OLSSON Michael
REBELLIN Davide
REDA Francesco*
TXURRUKA ANSOLA Amets
VANSPEYBROECK Pieter*
ZINGLE Romain*

Will 10
BLYTHE Adam
BOOKWALTER Brent
CHAVANEL Sylvain*
DEIGNAN Philip
DEVOLDER Stijn*
DUQUE Leonardo Fabio*
EARLE Nathan
HINAULT Sébastien
IMPEY Daryl
MANCEBO PEREZ Francisco
MARTENS Paul
POPOVYCH Yaroslav
RASCH Gabriel
SEELDRAEYERS Kevin
TIMMER Albert*


The most popular picks are:
9: REBELLIN Davide
8: HORNER Chris
7: KANKOVSKY Alois
6: DEIGNAN Philip
5: ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David, BOOKWALTER Brent, IMPEY Daryl, MANCEBO PEREZ Francisco, METLUSHENKO Yuri, ROGERS Rico Dene, ROVNY Ivan
4: EARLE Nathan, NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel, TXURRUKA ANSOLA Amets, WEENING Pieter


Popularity
9 points for Rebellin, 1 for any of the myriad unique picks:

1) Florecita 58
2) Geraint Too Fast 55
3) Fus87 52
4) Search 48
5) Ingsve 45
5) Leadbelly 45
5) Josedin 45
8) Will 10 42
9) Skidmark 40
10) Hilltop Finisher 39
11) Afrank 38
11) 18-Valve 38
13) Vladimir 37
14) Fauniera 36
15) Karaev 34
16) Del 1962 33
17) Ruudz0r 32
17) Al Pacino 32
17) Italian Gigolo 32
20) Armchair Cyclist 31
21) Bicing 30
22) DJSprtsch 28
22) Asdfgh101 28

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

It makes a change to be be near the top of the popularity rankings for once (even though I haven't got Rebellin or Kankovsky).

 

[skidmark]

Wait, Markus Fothen still exists? And who the hell is 'Antonio Nibali'?

Interesting to see that some of the last/only (my 'short list' was less than twice as long as my actual team) cuts included a bunch of unique picks - Anton, Peraud, Mourey and Danielson (and I would have put Fukushima as my 'retired rider that isn't going to cost me many points' but I didn't have 11 left so I took Palomares instead).

Also interesting that Scarponi is a unique pick. I guess I'm betting on him declining a bit, but also being swamped by top-level talent at Astana. I look for him to turn dom for Aru in the Giro and maybe net a top 15, and then work for Nibs at the Tour, and there's half his season. But hey, I could be wrong.

Rebellin, on the other hand, I don't see dropping by more than 100 points, he's the most consistent rider of the last 20 years, like pre-last year Samu or Erik Zabel.

I had to round out my team with the born-in-1960 Mark Holowesko, who seems to show up and place in the Bahamas RR and TT races every year. Props to the oldest rider I could find in CQ.

 

[skidmark]

and my poor, poor Amets. I had to pick you, it was just the numbers, I swear! I'll still cheer for you.

Riders I considered (not very highly, but they were still on the 105-rider long list) for my main game team:

Van der Lijke
Cunego
Kolobnev
Blythe

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Two big gambles - I have Peraud and Acevedo. I can feel it in my left knee.
The hardest in this game I thought, was the points limit. Of course Horner for instance will drop a few hundred points, but I felt like cheating picking him.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Lol most popular team

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Wait, Markus Fothen still exists? And who the hell is 'Antonio Nibali'?

Vincenzo's kid brother might actually do okay points-wise, (as well as many of my other riders ) but Armchair made me replace RIIS Bjarne as his "rider" status is apparently in question, so I figured what the hell.

 

[ingsve]

So let's talk about what strategy people had when picking riders for this competition.

I started off deciding that Horner was probably going to find some sort of team and that there is no way he could get as many points as last year so an obvious pick if apart from the gamble of him not having a team yet.

After that I decided that my strategy was not going to really be to find riders that are actually in decline since that is a hard thing to determine. Instead I focused on riders that had most of their points in 2013 coming from a single race or during a single stage race. The idea is that overall these riders aren't as good as their points suggest so if they ride in 2014 like they did in 99% of races in 2013 then they are certain to be good picks. Then again they could very well have a better year so it's always a gamble.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Timing of Horner team submissions was very interesting. Early teams lacked him, then when Caja Rural and subsequently Lampre were reported as virtually fact (ah, he will get at least 20 race days) there was a time when every team sent in featured him; then as the continuing uncertainty clouded the waters, the last minute teams were mainly Hornerless.

 

[del1962]

Timing of Horner team submissions was very interesting. Early teams lacked him, then when Caja Rural and subsequently Lampre were reported as virtually fact (ah, he will get at least 20 race days) there was a time when every team sent in featured him; then as the continuing uncertainty clouded the waters, the last minute teams were mainly Hornerless.

I still think he will race somewhere, I am beginning to regret picking Cuddles though

 

[del1962]

Very interesting submissions, especially in the ways people tried to use up places in the squad cheaply. I rejected some long retired riders, but some who scarcely rode in 2013 and have retired for 2014 were included, while others really deeply investigated the deepest ranks of obscurity to find riders that are not even household names in their own households, so that even if they might score higher this year than last, it will not be by more than a small handful of points.

There are some very high scorers in there as well, and some who have been tipped on the main game as riders who will make a profit this year.

I made it a point that any rider cheap rider had a team for 2014, obvioulsy more expensiver riders would normally have to have a team, an exception was made for Horner

 

[skidmark]

Vincenzo's kid brother might actually do okay points-wise, (as well as many of my other riders ) but Armchair made me replace RIIS Bjarne as his "rider" status is apparently in question, so I figured what the hell.

Yeah, I wanted to put Coppi and Anquetil and Armstrong as my last 3 riders, but Armchair understandably said no.

 

[skidmark]

So let's talk about what strategy people had when picking riders for this competition.

I started off deciding that Horner was probably going to find some sort of team and that there is no way he could get as many points as last year so an obvious pick if apart from the gamble of him not having a team yet.

After that I decided that my strategy was not going to really be to find riders that are actually in decline since that is a hard thing to determine. Instead I focused on riders that had most of their points in 2013 coming from a single race or during a single stage race. The idea is that overall these riders aren't as good as their points suggest so if they ride in 2014 like they did in 99% of races in 2013 then they are certain to be good picks. Then again they could very well have a better year so it's always a gamble.

I took a hybrid strategy. Some were 'riders who are still okay but kind of on the downside' who were with teams that had emerging riders that would take over (or moved to teams with lots of good riders) like Fedrigo, Nocentini, Lancaster (Arroyo would count; he'll lose leadership chances by the fact that Lulu is there). Others were riders I thought were getting worse but maybe not, but moved to teams that were super stacked and their role was changing. Think Scarponi, Nieve there. And other riders, I picked because of the 'most points from one win' thing - definitely Txurruka and Metlushenko, I'd say Weening to an extent too.

Didn't pick Horner - if he doesn't get a team he's not getting race days, if he does get a team (and I'm leaning towards Lampre) he rides the Giro/Vuelta and probably picks up a handy amount of points. Of course if he signed for Christina Watches and rode like the tour of Slovenia, he'll just get nothing. But I thought it was more realistic he gets a top-level ride.

 

[the asian]

Was unfortunately too busy in the last few days and couldn't submit a team.

I thought Coquard and Yannick Martinez would be fairly popular but glancing at the teams, it seems they aren't .

Rebellin is the obvious choice and Rui Costa isn't a bad choice either, especially if the Rainbow jersey curse lives on.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

I wanted to pick Costa, but in the end I found him too expensive.

 

[Afrank]

Well...happy to see none of the guys I picked for my main team made it onto anybody's team for this game. I must have done something right!

Some pretty interesting picks, looks like others definitely took a more strategic approach then I did. Can't believe I forgot about the curse of the rainbow jersey.

I didn't even have Rui on my list.

I mostly looked for people that would have to be domestiques for others this year, guys that were at the twilight of their career, guys that got most points in lower level races and would be racing at a higher level this year, and a few riders that I don't like much (giving me a reason to cheer against them ).

 

[asdfgh101]

Missed Kankovsky (did a quick entry) who is my one regret.

But Jrod is a unique pick (surprisingy) and will be the key to success for me.

 

[Ruudz0r]

Off to a bad start with Impey in my team

 

[skidmark]

Off to a bad start with Impey in my team

What was your rationale with Impey? I can see how you might think the TDF jersey stint was worth a few points and the Pais Vasco win would probably go to someone like Matthews or Goss if they're in form this year, but I'm curious if there was more to it than that.

 

[LaFlorecita]

LOL Arredondo what a fail pick

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Two late teams added (Mellow Velo and MC Mountain), simple version of my spreadsheet here.

You'll notice one team listed but out of the ranking columns: Ben is still 10% over budget although I drew his attention to it ages ago.

Scores currently displayed are for popularity of selections.

 

[Ruudz0r]

What was your rationale with Impey? I can see how you might think the TDF jersey stint was worth a few points and the Pais Vasco win would probably go to someone like Matthews or Goss if they're in form this year, but I'm curious if there was more to it than that.

Well Gerrans is a better version of him (bit faster, bit better on the hills, bit more endurance, Only Impey is a bit better on the longer clibms, but also not good enough to score a lot). And there are quite a few fast man at Orica, so didnt think he would be riding to much for himself.

He got 5th in the Eneco last year which gained him a lot of poitns if you take that out + the yellow jersey that he got as a gift then it could be a lot of profit for this game.

But he was riding pretty damn awesome in TDU even though he was a domestic. But I like the guy so it's not the end of the world !

 

[ingsve]

Do we have a spreadsheet of sorts for this game and some way of tracking who's in the lead?

 

[del1962]

Do we have a spreadsheet of sorts for this game and some way of tracking who's in the lead?

I would have thought it would be quite difficult until most riders have ridden 20 days though