The CQ "Career in Decline" game 2014

[DJ Sprtsch]

Great, from 22nd to 10th. Now, why did I pick Peraud...

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

June update (to 6th July)

It is increasingly rare to be able to add to a team's score, but some riders have increased their number of racedays (below 20 last time I updated) without earning many points, but some have done it:

(Name/points difference since end of May/Number of teams)
HORNER Chris 205 8
KANKOVSKY Alois 144 8
MIZOUROV Andrey 55 2
POPKOV Vitaliy 47 1
WANG Meiyin 40 1
PAREDES HERNANDEZ Jonathan Felipe 40 1
METLUSHENKO Yuri 33 6
LAMMERTINK Maurits 28 1
BLYTHE Adam 12 2

Getting good results this month, and letting down their performance in this game by doing so, we have:
COSTA Rui Alberto Faria -369 2
NIBALI Vincenzo -365 1
MOLLEMA Bauke -269 1
FRANK Mathias -220 1
MACHADO Tiago Jose Pinto -159 1
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel -135 4
DEBUSSCHERE Jens -133 1
CHAVANEL Sylvain -112 2
MARTENS Paul -109 2
POURSEYEDI GOLAKHOR Mirsamad -104 1

And yet the top two there remain among the best point losers of the season:
NIBALI Vincenzo 2173 1
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim 1916 1
HORNER Chris 1075 8
COSTA Rui Alberto Faria 895 2
CHAVANEL Sylvain 821 2
VAN AVERMAET Greg 806 1
SCARPONI Michele 784 1
MOLLEMA Bauke 678 1
WEENING Pieter 655 4
CANCELLARA Fabian 636 1
POZZATO Filippo 608 1
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 573 0
HUSHOVD Thor 563 2
CIOLEK Gerald 524 4
SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel 519 1


Team scores for June:
The top 11 teams in profit all include either Horner or Kankovski: the top 2 have both.
1 Fauniera 253
2 Ingsve 185
3 Josedin 62
4 Ruudz0r 59
5 Del 1962 43
6 Fus87 32
7 Geraint Too Fast 28
8 Bicing 10
9 Leadbelly 6
10 Search -56
11 Hilltop Finisher -78
12 Asdfgh101 -145
13 Italian Gigolo -174
13 Skidmark -209
15 Al Pacino -222
16 DJSprtsch -272
17 Florecita -309
18 Vladimir -309
19 Armchair -342
20 MC Mountain -350
21 Will 10 -418
22 Karaev -429
23 Mellow Velo -441
24 Afrank -549
25 18 Valve -625


Game standings
1 Italian Gigolo 3767
2 Geraint Too Fast 3565
3 Skidmark 3505
4 Fauniera 3395
5 Leadbelly 3376
6 Ingsve 3294
7 Hilltop Finisher 3274
8 Bicing 3222
9 Asdfgh101 3160
10 18 Valve 3096
11 Will 10 3006
12 DJSprtsch 2979
13 Ruudz0r 2978
13 Al Pacino 2970
15 Mellow Velo 2932
16 Florecita 2870
17 MC Mountain 2854
18 Josedin 2825
19 Search 2810
20 Fus87 2807
21 Vladimir 2595
22 Karaev 2334
23 Afrank 2064
24 Del 1962 2056
25 Armchair 1669


That lead is much smaller than previously, and if Nibali does as well as he currently looks like doing in the Tour, then the very closely grouped teams behind will come into play. Fauniera has risen 11 places, and Ingsve by 10, while 18 Valve fell from 2nd to 10th.

 

[del1962]

Nibali does not look such a good pick now

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

To CQ update of 3rd August:

A few riders still making points for themselves in this game in the last month:
WANG Meiyin 61 1 team
FERNANDEZ CRUZ Delio 60 1 team
MIZOUROV Andrey 33 2 teams
DELGADO ORTEGA Yeison Rogelio 5 1 team
HOUSE Kristian 2 1 team
SANTOS Vergilio Martins 2 1 team
KANO TOMOYA 1 1 team

But far more relevant are those who are gaining CQ points in July, and so losing points in the game. Nibali had been the lynchpin of ItalianGigolo's lead, but the Tour de France put paid to that.
July scores:
NIBALI Vincenzo -1400 1 team
PERAUD Jean-Christophe -592 1 team
MOLLEMA Bauke -300 1 team
ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar -268 1 team
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel -179 4 teams
KONONENKO Mykhaylo -175 1 team
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim -169 1 team
ROGINA Radoslav -153 2 teams
VAN AVERMAET Greg -144 1 team
RENSHAW Mark -120 3 teams
VOECKLER Thomas -103 2 teams
POLIVODA Oleksandr -100 1 team
REBELLIN Davide -95 9 teams
HORNER Chris -88 8 teams
FUGLSANG Jakob -87 2 teams
IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka -80 1 team
WEENING Pieter -80 4 teams
ZOIDL Riccardo -79 5 teams
GADRET John -77 3 teams
DUMOULIN Samuel -72 1 team
BENNATI Daniele -70 1 team
GONÇALVES Jose Isidro Maciel -68 2 teams
CANCELLARA Fabian -65 1 team
ZAUGG Oliver -65 1 team
Golcer Jure -56 1 team


Team scores this month:
1 Ruudz0r 3
2 Mellow Velo -64
3 Will 10 -94
4 Search -135
5 Armchair -181
6 Bicing -233
7 Fus87 -239
8 Geraint Too Fast -244
9 Al Pacino -247
10 Del 1962 -256
11 Ingsve -264
12 Leadbelly -283
13 Hilltop Finisher -285
13 18 Valve -291
15 Fauniera -304
16 MC Mountain -306
17 Josedin -311
18 Asdfgh101 -324
19 Vladimir -345
20 Skidmark -416
21 Florecita -484
22 Karaev -648
23 DJSprtsch -880
24 Afrank -917
25 Italian Gigolo -1613

Nibali remains one of the better picks for the game, but no longer the best:
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim 1747 1 team
HORNER Chris 987 8 teams
COSTA Rui Alberto Faria 895 2 teams
NIBALI Vincenzo 773 1 team
CHAVANEL Sylvain 772 2 teams
SCARPONI Michele 762 1 team
VAN AVERMAET Greg 662 1 team
POZZATO Filippo 608 1 team
WEENING Pieter 575 4 teams
CANCELLARA Fabian 571 1 team


Will Purito do enough in the Vuelta to avoid being the unintended champion?

Some riders have been disasterously successful compared to expectation:
PERAUD Jean-Christophe -648 1 team
EVANS Cadel -362 2 teams
ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar -190 1 team
POURSEYEDI GOLAKHOR Mirsamad -184 1 team
MACHADO Tiago Jose Pinto -159 1 team
POLIVODA Oleksandr -150 1 team
CANOLA Marco -131 1 team
VANDENBERGH Stijn -91 3 teams
FRANK Mathias -79 1 team
ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David -67 5 teams

And so our manager standings are:
1 Geraint Too Fast 3321
2 Leadbelly 3093
3 Fauniera 3091
4 Skidmark 3089
5 Ingsve 3030
6 Bicing 2989
7 Hilltop Finisher 2989
8 Ruudz0r 2981
9 Will 10 2912
10 Mellow Velo 2868
11 Asdfgh101 2836
12 18 Valve 2805
13 Al Pacino 2723
13 Search 2675
15 Fus87 2568
16 MC Mountain 2548
17 Josedin 2514
18 Florecita 2386
19 Vladimir 2250
20 Italian Gigolo 2154
21 DJSprtsch 2099
22 Del 1962 1800
23 Karaev 1686
24 Armchair 1488
25 Afrank 1147

ItalianGigolo's reign ends with Nibali's Tour success: The main root of Geraint's lead comes from Horner, Weening and Bookwalter.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Nibali does not look such a good pick now

Indeed not: Peter Weening is widely tipped for success in Poland which could make the status of our new leader fragile.

 

[murali]

i m trying to understand this game.

is this game really about spotting ppl who had that odd peak in career or a horrendously poor season then?

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

i m trying to understand this game.

is this game really about spotting ppl who had that odd peak in career or a horrendously poor season then?

The main game is about who will get more points than last year, regardless of the reason for this year being poorer: this game is about finding those who will get fewer points than last year, regardless of the reason.

Ageing, fluke results last year, change of role in the team, semi-retirement: those are the types of thinking behind most picks, I presume.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

To the end of August

Pesky riders getting results that their owners hoped they wouldn't:
CHAVANEL Sylvain 356
DANIELSON Tom 289
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 188
VAN AVERMAET Greg 171
LEUKEMANS Björn 158
VICHOT Arthur 151
BLYTHE Adam 140
FARRAR Tyler 111
REBELLIN Davide 101
TUFT Svein 95
EVANS Cadel 92
ELMIGER Martin 88
HORNER Chris 88
DEIGNAN Philip 86
FERNANDEZ CRUZ Delio 76
HOFLAND Moreno 73
HERRADA LOPEZ Jesus 60
VAN EMDEN Jos 55
PERAUD Jean-Christophe 53
TXURRUKA ANSOLA Amets 51


Points this month:
1 Fauniera -98
2 Asdfgh101 -101
3 Ruudz0r -120
4 Skidmark -123
5 Leadbelly -127
6 Ingsve -150
7 Italian Gigolo -194
8 DJSprtsch -199
9 Geraint Too Fast -215
10 Del 1962 -227
11 18 Valve -228
12 Search -232
13 Hilltop Finisher -233
13 Afrank -249
15 Bicing -266
16 Vladimir -270
17 Josedin -277
18 Karaev -285
19 MC Mountain -309
20 Al Pacino -310
21 Florecita -319
22 Armchair -469
23 Mellow Velo -511
24 Will 10 -551
25 Fus87 -641

New standings:
1 Geraint Too Fast 3106
2 Fauniera 2993
3 Leadbelly 2966
4 Skidmark 2966
5 Ingsve 2880
6 Ruudz0r 2861
7 Hilltop Finisher 2756
8 Asdfgh101 2735
9 Bicing 2723
10 18 Valve 2577
11 Search 2443
12 Al Pacino 2413
13 Will 10 2361
13 Mellow Velo 2357
15 MC Mountain 2239
16 Josedin 2237
17 Florecita 2067
18 Vladimir 1980
19 Italian Gigolo 1960
20 Fus87 1927
21 DJSprtsch 1900
22 Del 1962 1573
23 Karaev 1401
24 Armchair 1019
25 Afrank 898

Fauniera moves up to second place, having taken a rather crafty option of having about half his team made up of zero scorers last year who have now retired. Geraint retains the lead, and I can't see any immediate danger of his squad placing too high, but there is always the risk of one of these riders doing something crazy like being in a successful break.

A special commendation to Hilltop Finisher who has all of his team still in deficit to last season's score (although Cunego briefly threatened to spoil that next month in this high Vuelta stage finish last week).

Not sure that I'll bother repeating this one next year: a lot of work to check how many racing days obscure riders have had, and little feedback or evident enthusiasm from the participants, although it is interesting to watch.

If I were to repeat it, I'd want some sort of restriction of eligibility (must have scored some points to have an expectation of losing them: must be in some team to have an expectation of riding a fair number of days)

 

[fauniera]

Oh i am enthusiastic, even though i probably won't be able to catch Geraint Too Fast. Bookwalter and Metlushenko are really good picks, and Rovny did his best yesterday not to score any points, too. Maybe Blythe or Debuschere can help me out? There is danger on my side too of course. I'm a bit angry that i overlooked Hivert. That was kind of obvious, with the transfer to Belkin and all.

 

[skidmark]

I'm really excited about this game, it's pretty unique and was fun to pick a team. But yeah, not much action in the thread and it looks like a ton of work. If you run it next year I'll pick a team and follow it for sure, but understand if you don't.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

I think it's great fun too!

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

To the end of September (well, 5th October)

The main points you hoped your riders wouldn't get:

RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim -521 1 team
VAN AVERMAET Greg -474 1 team
WIGGINS Bradley -405 1 team
SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel -354 1 team
COSTA Rui Alberto Faria -299 2 teams
IMPEY Daryl -284 5 teams
NOCENTINI Rinaldo -161 3 teams
PONZI Simone -154 1 team
POZZATO Filippo -145 1 team
TXURRUKA ANSOLA Amets -143 4 teams
DEBUSSCHERE Jens -141 1 team
CANCELLARA Fabian -134 1 team
SICARD Romain -126 1 team
REBELLIN Davide -126 9 teams
BUTS Vitaliy -125 2 teams
MOLLEMA Bauke -124 1 team
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel -112 4 teams
CHAVANEL Sylvain -110 2 teams
ZAUGG Oliver -108 1 team
MACHADO Tiago Jose Pinto -102 1 team
HANSEN Adam -100 1 team

Unwanted points for teams:
Afrank 911 (incl Wiggins, Sicard, Nieve and Zaugg)
Asdfgh101 758 (incl Rodriguez, Buts)
18 Valve 705 (incl Costa, Txurruka, Nieve)
Al Pacino 682
Karaev 653
Will 10 614
Skidmark 607
Search 600
Bicing 584
Del 1962 518
Mellow Velo 490
DJSprtsch 482
Florecita 459
Ruudz0r 429
Armchair 409
Vladimir 388
Hilltop Finisher 384
Leadbelly 279
Geraint Too Fast 269
Josedin 234
Italian Gigolo 214
Fus87 190
Ingsve 179
Fauniera 178
MC Mountain 105

That disastrous month for Afrank leaves him in the odd position that his team, under the rules of the main CQ game, would now be in profit. Picking riders "bound to do less well than last year" has proved, for many of us, trickier than might have been expected.

At the top of the table, Geraint TooFast remains in the lead, but Fauniera has taken almost 100 points off his lead. How many more racing days do their riders have for those points to be avoided on? Ingsve rises two places to joint them in the podium positions, while MC Mountain and Josedin have the joint highest rise in position (6 places) and edge into the top 10.

1 Geraint Too Fast 2837
2 Fauniera 2815
3 Ingsve 2701
4 Leadbelly 2687
5 Ruudz0r 2432
6 Hilltop Finisher 2372
7 Skidmark 2359
8 Bicing 2139
9 MC Mountain 2134
10 Josedin 2003
11 Asdfgh101 1977
12 18 Valve 1872
13 Mellow Velo 1867
13 Search 1843
15 Will 10 1747
16 Italian Gigolo 1746
17 Fus87 1737
18 Al Pacino 1731
19 Florecita 1608
20 Vladimir 1592
21 DJSprtsch 1418
22 Del 1962 1055
23 Karaev 748
24 Armchair 610
25 Afrank -13

 

[fauniera]

Debusschere has been a very good boy lately. I hope he keeps it up at Putte-Kapellen.

 

[fauniera]

Everything was going so well and now Kankovsky ruins it for me. Stupid Chinese races.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

In case you were wondering, I haven't forgotten, but given that Kankovski is in 5 of the top 4 teams, I am waiting until the end of his season. I think that is the current Tour of Fuzhou, so I will post probably on Tuesday.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Before the final rankings, apologies to MC Mountain for false confidence of placing him in the top 10 previously, and to asdfgh101 for depriving him of the prestige of a top 10 place, due to error based on CQ having yet another spelling of Pouseyedi Goulawotsit's name. MCM: you should have been 18th with 1619 points.

The final reckoning
In the final instalment, mainly Asian races since Lombardy, two riders who had not reached 20 racing days competed with little or no success, and gave late positive points to their team:
METLUSHENKO Yuri 58 points 6 teams
SUZUKI YUZURU 1 point 1 team

On the other hand, there are those who garnered points in these late season outings, to the detriment of their teams in this game. The biggest scoring among them:

DEBUSSCHERE Jens -192 1 team
REBELLIN Davide -176 9 teams
KANKOVSKY Alois -172 8 teams
ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David -144 5 teams
COSTA Rui Alberto Faria -138 2 teams
WANG Meiyin -127 1 team
GONÇALVES Jose Isidro Maciel -98 2 teams
FARRAR Tyler -97 1 team
VOECKLER Thomas -84 2 teams
NOCENTINI Rinaldo -80 3 teams
CHAVANEL Sylvain -80 2 teams
HOFLAND Moreno -67 2 teams
VAN DER LIJKE Nick -55 1 team
SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel -40 1 team
GOLAS Michal -40 1 team


So the (just over a) monthly best scores are:
1 DJSprtsch -22
2 Asdfgh101 -30
3 Skidmark -56
4 MC Mountain -57
5 Del 1962 -88
6 Will 10 -130
7 Hilltop Finisher -139
8 Geraint Too Fast -179
9 Fauniera -182
10 Italian Gigolo -185


Although he only had a narrow lead, and the misfortune of having the most successful rider of the month in the game (Debusschere) as a squad member, the unsuccessful participation of Metlushenko in the Tour of Hainan was enough to preserve Geraint's lead, by a mere 25 points.

1 Geraint Too Fast 2658
2 Fauniera 2633
3 Ingsve 2404
4 Skidmark 2303
5 Hilltop Finisher 2233
6 Leadbelly 2229
7 Ruudz0r 2123
8 Bicing 1948
9 Asdfgh101 1947
10 Josedin 1817
11 18 Valve 1627
12 Will 10 1617
13 MC Mountain 1562
13 Italian Gigolo 1561
15 Mellow Velo 1472
16 Search 1430
17 DJSprtsch 1396
18 Al Pacino 1323
19 Florecita 1219
20 Fus87 1217
21 Vladimir 1197
22 Del 1962 967
23 Karaev 552
24 Armchair 364
25 Afrank -199

The podium is unchanged from last month, and has a large margin over the late surge by Skidmark.

Congratulations to Geraint: hard luck to his close challengers who tried the crafty tactic of filling the team with those who had no intention of racing this year.

I intend to give it another go next year, but the almost successful tactic will be disallowed next year: I envisage a requirement for a contract with a WT/Pro Conti team with no previous announcement of early-mid season retirement during 2015.

That can be up for discussion in the thread for next years game: for now thanks for having a go, congratulations to the winners, and thanks to Afrank for keeping me off the bottom of the table by doing what some teams, in some years, have failed to do in the main game: making a profit.

 

[fauniera]

Damn, that was close. I thought i had it, but i had forgotten to calculate Metlushenko's positive points. Congrats to Geraint Too Fast! And thanks a lot Armchair cyclist for all the work!

I intend to give it another go next year, but the almost successful tactic will be disallowed next year: I envisage a requirement for a contract with a WT/Pro Conti team with no previous announcement of early-mid season retirement during 2015.

Fine by me.

 

[del1962]

I envisage a requirement for a contract with a WT/Pro Conti team with no previous announcement of early-mid season retirement during 2015.

I think the contract for no team next year should only apply to riders under a certain points value, as Horner had no contract at the start of last year but seems a legitimate pick to me, I guess you have a statement to rule out the picking of a certain Australian (though I think anyone who picked him last year should be allowed to keep him in their team).

Also should being on a continental team next year also provide qualification.

 

[SemirS]

.