The Cycling Betting Thread

[manafana]

i look at flanders in my betting blog

van avermaet is my main man from betting point of view would love a podium

 

[Leadbelly]

Close today, but no cigar.

Small change on Velits (81ew with PP) for the stage win tomorrow. Not sure how it will pan out, but a reduced group sprint seems likely - the smaller the group the better.

 

[manafana]

van avermaet was good enough for me one best match betting days in a while.

ratto for me tommorow or slagter and impey.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

The same rider to win both RVV and PR @ 7

Now I kinda like this bet I made earlier. Odds 7 on Cancellara to win Paris-Roubaix.. Yummie

 

[Leadbelly]

Small change on Velits (81ew with PP) for the stage win tomorrow. Not sure how it will pan out, but a reduced group sprint seems likely - the smaller the group the better.

The crash made it quite a small group - ew came good.

 

[TeoSheva]

now I've a couple of bet on Roelandts:

Winner @81 and on the podium @20 at Roubaix

Winner @51 and on the podium @12 at RVV

do you think that I have any chance?

I had my chance, and I won already something

 

[postmanhat]

Have a had little dabble on Kristoff e/w for the Scheldeprijs. Cav should win it, with Bos also looking strong. But Kristoff looks decent @20's as the best of the rest, and hopefully even better

 

[Leadbelly]

It seems to be the year of the Kristoff in betting terms - I've had three or four bets on him already this year. He hasn't won me anything mind, but starting to like him anyway.

Interest bet on Team Gadret for tomorrow's stage at Pais Vasco - 151ew with PP.

 

[manafana]

porte and sky outdone by quintana today glad had the saver on.

 

[Leadbelly]

PR

Eisel 151ew
Demare 251ew
Wynants 501ew
Saramotins (again) 501ew

and to give me a more realistic chance of winning something

Roelandts 51ew

All with Paddy Power.

 

[Leadbelly]

AGR

Each ways don't seem available on PP for this race. Not sure why.

EBH 67
Mollema 67
Bardet 401

Always easier to back riders you like.

 

[manafana]

Guys each way really are not value with size of the field 1/4 or 1/5 odds for 3 places isn't value.

I looked at amstel gold for today
nothing major handful of main bets.

 

[Leadbelly]

Can't betting be fun?

It doesn't always have to be about value (though I'd argue that an ew bet is no different from a straight winnner bet, just that there's two components that you have to seperately think about - and since I mainly back big prices, I find I get a lot more places than outright winners).

Although I like getting winners, and I try and kid myself that I know something about cycling, mainly my bets are interest bets - just some fun to try and make what can be a dull race into something a bit more exciting. No need to make everything so serious.

Bring on the race!

 

[MADRAZO]

Guys each way really are not value with size of the field 1/4 or 1/5 odds for 3 places isn't value.

I looked at amstel gold for today
nothing major handful of main bets.

The thing about ew terms -value is that riders are very different. For instance Matthew Goss in a TDF sprintstage can often be up to odds 30/1 in betfair to win and only odds 1/1 to podium, so already if he is just 12/1 with the bookies using ew terms, then you actually get a free bet for him winning and the same podium odds as betfair. So for this type of riders often there can be huge value in ew-terms. It seems though as bookies are starting to react to these situations by sometimes not using the ew terms or changing the 1-3 1/4. Likely the reason many have not used for Amstel is riders like Gerrans that is much more likely to top 3 (with Sagan in the race) than to win.

 

[MADRAZO]

For those lucky enough to be able to bet there. Paddypower 22/1 on Felline and 80/1 on Taborre for stage 1A in Trentino.

Both way too high !

 

[Ferminal]

4.50 and 11 now

Going a bit of Scarponi overall.

 

[MADRAZO]

4.50 and 11 now

Going a bit of Scarponi overall.

Funny enough Paddypower often dares release odds first, and respect to that, but then when bet365 releases they usually completely forget their own odds and adjust very much to bet365 odds instead. But I guess its better than waiting for them and copying then like many others. But one really has to try checking paddypower early in the market if one can bet there. Some seriously huge mistakes now and then in their winnergames.

 

[Leadbelly]

FW

Slagter 151ew

Each way available at PP this time.

 

[Leadbelly]

Early prices up for LBL on PP

Uran 101ew
Costa 151ew
Weening 251ew

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Kwiatkowski is 41. If I can get him at 41 on a site I've got access to, I'm definitely going for it.

 

[Ferminal]

Hmm, Niemiec @ 151 and Gautier @ 67. Expected a bit more value from Paddy given they have Viviani @ 11.

 

[Ferminal]

Early prices up for LBL on PP

Uran 101ew
Costa 151ew
Weening 251ew

Rolland @ 81
Iglinskiy @ 41

 

[iZnoGouD]

I don't know where to put my money

 

[The Hitch]

I don't know where to put my money

You can put it in my bank account.

 

[manafana]

I have gone for Gilbert, Kwia and Mollema bit more detail in the blog, biggest match bets are with ladbrokes.