The Cycling Betting Thread

[Cramps]

Purito can put time into him on every MTF, and Piti's TT'ing isn't consistent enough to know for sure he's going to take 1'30' - 2'00 on the flat one. But I guess we shouldn't think of it like that anyway. A H2H it might be Purito's favour only 60-40, but relatively speaking he's highly favoured for the overall because the potential for him to be the best climber in the race whereas we can be quite confident that Valverde will be both outclimbed and out TT'ed by Contador and Froome. In a place only market he'd be a good bet.

True, Valverde isn't the best in any single category.

Although best overall MTF'er is kind of hard to judge I find. Valverde did knock Purito into 3rd at last year's climactic Vuelta stage, so not bad MTF.

 

[Cramps]

I don't think Froome is invincible and I certainly can't have him as a short favourite

Yes while we're on the topic...

He is fair favourite. Excellent TT of course. And he will always be remembered for that mountain stage last TdF where he clearly held back to help Wiggins. But, I wonder whether memories of that mountain stage are the kind of highly memorable but perhaps not so representative thing that can lead humans astray. In the 2012 Vuelta he was *completely* left behind in the mountains. Some steeper climbs this year in the Tour, perhaps more Vuelta like?

 

[taiwan]

Don't normally bet but thinking of putting something on the Tour GC. Excuse me if this is a stupid question, but do only a few bookmakers offer E/W bets on the Tour GC? Thought it would be simple.

 

[Leadbelly]

Think most have an ew option. Going by http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner only SportingBet and Bwin of the major bookies don't have an ew choice at the moment. Nearer the start of the race you'll get more markets on top 3,6 and 10 which may be more interesting for a flutter.

 

[taiwan]

Will look again. Sportingbet had the best odds on the guys I wanted but I couldn't find the option. Would like to place them immediately because the Dauphinee/TdS will change things. Ty for the response.

 

[Pulpstar]

The bets I have placed upthread are with Paddy Power, except the Porte bet which was Stan James.

 

[Iron Lungs]

Will look again. Sportingbet had the best odds on the guys I wanted but I couldn't find the option. Would like to place them immediately because the Dauphinee/TdS will change things. Ty for the response.

might be a case of doing the maths - if you think your pick will only take a podium spot then backing the place markets with Sporting Bet is probably cheaper for you. no point wasting the win selection portion of a bet if you can't see him winning.

DM me for more information on betting if you need to, I can put you on the right track.

 

[wirral]

usually the market is cancelled and you do get your money back in advance (before the bet is decided)

I don't know how ladbrokes behaved in this case though, but they propably offered him to either cancel the bet or keep it at reduced odds.

Actually Ladbrokes behaved rather badly.

They said nothing at all for 11 further stages and then when the bet came in, they just settled it @ 6/4 without any explanation.

It took a number of e-mails to force them to reply "the bet was struck at the wrong price".

So, no, they definitely did not offer to cancel the bet.

 

[Iron Lungs]

Yes while we're on the topic...

He is fair favourite. Excellent TT of course. And he will always be remembered for that mountain stage last TdF where he clearly held back to help Wiggins. But, I wonder whether memories of that mountain stage are the kind of highly memorable but perhaps not so representative thing that can lead humans astray. In the 2012 Vuelta he was *completely* left behind in the mountains. Some steeper climbs this year in the Tour, perhaps more Vuelta like?

no, I agree he's favourite but is he a short price favourite as bookmakers will have you believe ?

I was more confident of Froome performing in last year's Tour than I am in this years. Last year I nominated and backed him at 40/1 and without doubt I got my value on the bet. This year I have seen him climb and time trial easily but I have also seen him put to the sword by Nibali, Rodriguez and Sagan on a stage that should have been tailor made for him in Tirreno.

There are little bits I'm not wholly convinced about and for that reason I can't back at a very short price with big money. I think there's a triumvarite of Spanish riders who can go well and I'm not entirely certain Wiggins/Hesjedal/Evans can be discounted either.

 

[taiwan]

might be a case of doing the maths - if you think your pick will only take a podium spot then backing the place markets with Sporting Bet is probably cheaper for you. no point wasting the win selection portion of a bet if you can't see him winning.

DM me for more information on betting if you need to, I can put you on the right track.

You're right - I should be betting on the place markets. Apparently there's only Bwin offering a handful of riders to place though. It might work out better value to waste the win part and effectively take 1/2 x 1/4 of the odds to win rather than the unappealing place odds available atm.

 

[Iron Lungs]

any thoughts on the likely Garmin team for the Tour ? 16/1 with bookies for Team Classification and at least 3 can make top 15 and with others looking to get into stage breaks

As my provisional 9 man team I think I would have

Talansky
Martin
Hesjedal

supported by

Vansummern
Rasmussen - maybe because of TTT
Zabriskie - same reason
Navardauskas - just too good to leave out
Dennis - time to give the youngster his head
Farrar - sprints

 

[gizzajob]

Dauphine

What's everyone's thoughts on the Dauphine from a betting perspective?

Contador and Froome not suprsingly head the betting markets, but with Froome so short priced at around 10/11, and Contador not coming to win (http://www.rtve.es/alacarta/videos/...epara-dauphine-vistas-tour/1848509/?media=tve), then I think the "second-tier" GC men may shine.

I've had EW bets on Talansky at 28-1, and Van Den Broeck at 33-1. Talansky has something to prove here and VDB has a solid record in the event.

The weather over the next few days looks a bit grim, so those serious TDF contenders may not risk pushing too hard and getting ill.

For Stage 1 I have gone with EBH as the finish will suit.

Oddschecker link http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/dauphine-libere/winner

Thoughts?

 

[Ruudz0r]

any thoughts on the likely Garmin team for the Tour ? 16/1 with bookies for Team Classification and at least 3 can make top 15 and with others looking to get into stage breaks

As my provisional 9 man team I think I would have

Talansky
Martin
Hesjedal

supported by

Vansummern
Rasmussen - maybe because of TTT
Zabriskie - same reason
Navardauskas - just too good to leave out
Dennis - time to give the youngster his head
Farrar - sprints

I believe Danielson and Vande Velde will go. Instead of Navardauskas and Dennis I think. Im also not sure on Rasmussen maybe Hunter so Farrar has someone to help him although Rasmussen might be able to do that aswell, dont know about his positioning skills.

 

[Leadbelly]

What's everyone's thoughts on the Dauphine from a betting perspective?

Unfortunately for me PP are only paying out for the first two places on an ew bet on the GC - so I can't really see anything of interest.

On Slagter though at 34ew with PP for stage one.

 

[Leadbelly]

....and Bouhanni 151ew with PP in case they take the stage a bit easier.

 

[Leadbelly]

Looks like an interesting profile for tomorrow - lots of possible outcomes.

Westra at 151ew with PP for stage two.

 

[Ferminal]

Not bad given his California attack.

Coppel was 2nd behind Evans last year on a similar finish, but he has no form so not going to back him. Was hoping for high odds on some random GC riders like Porte or Konig. Will go Kwiatkowski @ 67 though.

 

[Leadbelly]

Those last 50km today maybe weren't as tough as I thought. Strange that Viviani made it to the end though, while Bouhanni couldn't hang on - maybe he's got a bug.

On Gallopin for tomorrow's stage at 67ew with PP. I can't see him winning, but I reckon there's a decent chance of a placing. The sprint field isn't the greatest and with people like Bouhanni, EBH, Hushovd, Gerrans and Matthews seemingly not at 100% then there could be another chance for Tony tomorrow. Couple of sharp turns in the last km too, so he could get lucky with positioning.

 

[Ferminal]

They rode the final climb very lamely. Viviani could easily get dropped today if someone lifts the pace. Problem with Gallopin is that his positioning has been very poor both days. It's downhill right to the line so you need to be in the first 5 at 1k to go to have a chance. Still going to back him as 67 is crazy odds.

May look at some break value later too.

 

[Leadbelly]

TT action (both bets with PP).

Barta 101ew
JVDB 501ew

I will eat my hat if JVDB gets a top 3, but he did have a nice Romandie TT and there are question marks over Martin, Talansky and Westra - so who knows.

 

[Cramps]

I'll go out on a limb here and predict disappointing TT for Contador in the Dauphine, in line with his Basque TT. Then immediate lengthening of his odds for TdF.

So I think now might be the time to lay odds against Contador for the TdF.

 

[Pulpstar]

I've just laid him at 4.5 on that shocker.

 

[Cramps]

I've just laid him at 4.5 on that shocker.

Sounds reasonable to me. I laid him at 3.45 just before he started his TT -- expecting a tour de basque like TT and figuring to cash out after. But I think I'll hold on a while...

 

[Pulpstar]

The betting market for the TdF looks like a 1 horse race if we discount Contador. I think perhaps Froome is a bit short given the unknowns but I'm not laying him.

 

[Cramps]

No foreseeable challengers to Froome, he has the team and temperament to stay out of trouble, and yet I just can't bring myself to bet on him. I probably shouldn't be so irrational.