It's a very interesting discussion with many valuable contributions: a great read. But regarding Cunego's possible doping program since 2004, we're in a land of pure speculation. Regardless of what one may think, it's impossible to achieve some certainty here, or even come to some plausible conclusions. As for me, I merely see various options, possibilities.
I would simply like to make some observations about the 2004 Giro, since I remember this great race very well, I have watched the crucial mountain stages many times.
I have to say, that those who believe that Cunego's success was mostly a result of a lucky set of coincidences are perhaps not getting the full picture.
Although I supported Simoni during that race, I have to say that Cunego was much stronger, especially in the final part.
In the stages to Bormio and Presolana he was never in a difficulty. Because of the tactics he couldn't directly go after Simoni, but whenever Cioni (who was very strong then) accelerated to bridge the gap, Cunego immediately sat on his wheel without any problem. Cunego was so strong, that he was riding standing on the pedals, with hands on the drops (Pantani style) all the time which is not an efficient position, and Cunego himself stopped using this technique in the later years.
On the other hand, it was Simoni who was clearly in trouble. On the stage to Bormio 2000, he attacked on the last climb, but got a very small gap, and whenever Cioni accelarated (taking Cunego with him), the gap was coming down in a matter of seconds. Simoni was almost purple from exertion, and his cadence was very low, as he clearly had trouble pushing the gear he was using. Cunego's win wasn't a tight sprint finish; it was more of a devastating finishing uphill attack to which Simoni had no response.
Next day, Simoni was with Garzelii, but on the last climb Garzelli was clearly the stronger man, setting the pace on the last section, with Simoni hanging for life. When Cioni with Cunego accelerated, the gap was coming down real fast.
Cunego was also stronger than Simoni before the Giro, during Giro del Trentino and Giro dell Appenino.
Simoni was clearly the weaker man, but he could've won the Giro, had it not been for his ITT fall. Cunego was horrible during ITT. If Simoni hadn't fell down, he could've taken the leader's jersey. In this situation Cunego would not be allowed to go in that monumental escape, and Saeco would've used a classical, conservative strategy.
Simoni may have deliberately put less effort in preparations for the Giro, in order to save his form for the Tour. To some extent it worked; while he was getting dropped on the first serious climbs in 2003, he was able to hold with the contenders at least until the final climb in 2004.
As for Cunego's mysterious drop of form, there are no obvious answers here. I doubt he had access in 2004, to anything better than the rest of the peleton was using, so he clearly was in great form (although he was doping). So why the drop of form? I'll suggest a certain hypothesis, it may be completely false, but i think it's interesting:
Cyclists usually reach full maturity in their late twenties, or even early thirties. That was the case with Simoni. It's important to realize that the male body is still developing until that point: the muscle mass is increasing and the bones are becoming more dense, and as the result the weight is increasing.
Although Cunego was a very young cyclist in 2004, he was already reknown for his relatively huge calf and thigh muscles. I have never seen a climber with such big muscles, he had the legs of a sprinter. And yet he was able to maintain a very low body weight, like the smallest climbers. How was it possible? He had to have an extremely slim and light upper body to balance the bulk of his leg muscles. As years passed, Cunego's upper body certainly developed: his bones and muscles. He had two options: to accept higher weight, or to reduce it. And you can't just reduce weight selectively on one part of the body. I believe, Cunego chose the second option. When I looked at Cunego's legs in recent years I realized that they are visibly thinner than before. However the process may have killed that extra edge that Cunego had over other cyclists. In pro cycling, even small differences such as these yield huge effects.
To put myself more clear: I believe that contrary to other riders, Cunego reached his perfect point, his perfect combination very early. The natural development of the body may have killed a climber in Cunego.
I am not so sure about Cunego's implicit suggestions about his rejection of doping as a cause of his weaker results. I would love to believe him, but it is also possible that this is an attempt to rationalize and make sense (also for himself) of his failure to meet the huge expectations put on his shoulder after the 2004 victory. It must be very painful to live, and to deal with such a thing.
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