The "Dark Horse" case? (Contador,Armstrong,Cadel,Sastre aside)

[byu123]

What is the realistic case for a "Dark Horse" GC winner in this years Tour?

Assume none of the top names routinely mentioned as likely GC winners (Contador, Armstrong, Cadel, Sastre) have serious crash or stupidly "bonk." Who in the Pelaton could simply emerge, suprise everyone, and ride away from all of the top GC guys to a 1st place win?

Can this case even seriously be made about anyone else?

(1st two names that come to mind are A. Schelk and Menchov . . . .)

Interested in the take of the competitive cyclists on this one especially.

 

[Epicycle]

I wouldn't call Andy Schleck a dark horse. He is a solid favorite. Menchov has won 3 GTs so even if the Giro should have taken something out of him I wouldn't put him in the dark horse category.

Moreau, Luis Leon Sanchez, Rogers, Kirchen, Gesink, Bruseghin, Anton, Dessel, Nibali, Kreuziger, even Pereiro. Those would be likely true dark horse candidates. This year will be a very tough year for something unexpected to happen because there are so many strong teams with true leaders who want to control the race,

 

[ambrose]

I think there are many riders with realistic chances. Andy schleck is the first, i have no doubt he'll be top three. So long as he looks after himself, he'll be fine. He can climb, and there isn't much TT this year so he won't loose to much here. His only problem is being alowed to get away to get enough time so survuve the TT.
Menchov also, but i think he may have spent all his bikkies to early this year, form probably would have slumped since Giro, but if not then watch out.
Kreuziger will also be up there, but he may not have the ability to win a GT yet.
Either Mick rogers or kim kirchen will be a cahnce for a high up finish, but probably not the win while the team suports cav.

 

[byu123]

I think there are many riders with realistic chances. Andy schleck is the first, i have no doubt he'll be top three. So long as he looks after himself, he'll be fine. He can climb, and there isn't much TT this year so he won't loose to much here. His only problem is being alowed to get away to get enough time so survuve the TT.
Menchov also, but i think he may have spent all his bikkies to early this year, form probably would have slumped since Giro, but if not then watch out.
Kreuziger will also be up there, but he may not have the ability to win a GT yet.
Either Mick rogers or kim kirchen will be a cahnce for a high up finish, but probably not the win while the team suports cav.

A. Schleck also comes to my mind, but then I think of him so out climbing Contador to the point that it overcomes whateve deficit he digs in the TT and it doesn't pencil out, unless he just goes even beyond the peformance of last year. Contador and A. Schleck trying to attack and drop each other on a steep slope. That is a match up I'm looking forward to.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Andy schleck is the first, i have no doubt he'll be top three.

No doubt A Schleck will be in the top 3? That means you have no doubt he will beat at least all but two of:

Contador
Evans
Armstrong
Sastre
Menchov
Leipheimer
F. Schleck
Van de Velde
Kirchen
the rest of the peloton

No doubt???

 

[ambrose]

No doubt A Schleck will be in the top 3? That means you have no doubt he will beat at least all but two of:

Contador
Evans
Armstrong
Sastre
Menchov
Leipheimer
F. Schleck
Van de Velde
Kirchen
the rest of the peloton

No doubt???

ok, fair enough. came across alittle strong. how about suprised if he wasn't?

 

[lone_cowboy]

I think Mick Rogers is a definate chance to surprise everyone and place quite high up. Columbia have a very good team and after back up Cavendish in the first week sprints i wouldnt be surprised to see them turn there attentions to Rogers when it heats up.

 

[Mellow Velo]

I'm never quite sure what defines a "dark horse".
To me, if Andy Schleck is classed as one, we might as well just hand the podium to Astana.
If the young LBL winner has made any significant progress, since last year, he must be in with a shot.

Having said that, I can never commit to a real outsider, such as Kirchen. I still see him as a classics/week stager contender, same as DeVolder.

IF, he is considered to fall into the dark horse catagory, my pick is Roman Kreuziger.
His climbing style reminds me of an in form Basso and he can turn in a time trial to rival the best. He doesn't seem shy of attacking, either.
The real question mark is over his team. Nibali will be very competitive, but, with aspirations of his own (my other dark horse) and Pellizzoti may have left his legs on the Giro podium.

 

[Sophistic]

A 2nd vote for Roman Kreuziger, a talented rider without any major weakness.
Liquigas doesn't have the strongest team but with Nibali, Pelizotti and Vandborg they shouldn't lose too much time in the TTT.

 

[subzro]

Yeah I agree with the above on Michael Rogers, I picked him in the lower half of my top 10 but he could easily do top 5 or better.

 

[Bala Verde]

A real dark horse could be Vandevelde. He was good last year finishing 5th (4th without Kohl), but this season we haven't seen him besides his unfortunate accident in the Giro that caused him to drop out.

I agree with Mellow, that I don't see Kirchen to crack the top 5 (and hence have a chance at a win), because he is too much of a one week/classics specialist. He'll be losing too much time in the mountains...

Menchov showed last year that there is room for improvemt, after a three week stage race in the Giro, although his intentions were different then. I doubt it will play a significant role for him or Sastre, as they are such experienced riders, who know their bodies and abilities well. If anything, Menchov has gotten stronger mentally after the Giro; he seems to exude confidence.

The other dark horse, to me, is Armstrong, because I just don't think he has shown strong enough form in the Giro to make him competitive for a top 3 spot. Given his past however, he remains in the loop, but, as a dark horse/outsider.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think Mick Rogers is a definate chance to surprise everyone and place quite high up. Columbia have a very good team and after back up Cavendish in the first week sprints i wouldnt be surprised to see them turn there attentions to Rogers when it heats up.

They may have the strong team but Columbia have a strong team but have 2main problems to go for high gc:
1. Mick rogers and kirchen can climb and tt well but can they keep up with the big boys in the mountains? I don't think so.
2. Columbia will be stuffed as they will have to be going full gas for the whole of the tour if they are going to put full support in rogers and cavendish. They don't seem to have the firepower in the mountains. According to Ride Media Australia, Rogers has the same strength in the gc as Astana. Surprising?

 

[Pietro]

What is the realistic case for a "Dark Horse" GC winner in this years Tour?

Assume none of the top names routinely mentioned as likely GC winners (Contador, Armstrong, Cadel, Sastre) have serious crash or stupidly "bonk." Who in the Pelaton could simply emerge, suprise everyone, and ride away from all of the top GC guys to a 1st place win?

Can this case even seriously be made about anyone else?

(1st two names that come to mind are A. Schelk and Menchov . . . .)

Interested in the take of the competitive cyclists on this one especially.

PelOton please....

 

[Angliru]

With this Tours terrain and considering Menchov may be stretched a bit thin with his Giro winning efforts, I'd go with Gesink. He can climb with the best, he showed in the 2008 Vuelta, his grand tour initiation, that he can maintain his effort over 3 weeks, and like Kreuziger he's not afraid of pushing the pace when he's in elite climber company. He's confident without being cocky. I really like both Kreuziger and Gesink for the future. Both show a great deal of class.

 

[richwagmn]

I wouldn't call Andy Schleck a dark horse. He is a solid favorite. Menchov has won 3 GTs so even if the Giro should have taken something out of him I wouldn't put him in the dark horse category.

Moreau, Luis Leon Sanchez, Rogers, Kirchen, Gesink, Bruseghin, Anton, Dessel, Nibali, Kreuziger, even Pereiro. Those would be likely true dark horse candidates. This year will be a very tough year for something unexpected to happen because there are so many strong teams with true leaders who want to control the race,

I sure like Andy and think he's one of the climbers in the tour. He seems to get crushed in the TTs though. I sure hope he can improve. Otherwise, he'll be just be super domestique in the GTs.

 

[Archibald]

Rogers for me - did well in the Giro and has been a virtual yellow jersey before...

 

[Zoncolan]

Igor Anton-great climbing talent, possible polka dot.
Vladimir Karpets-strong all-rounder.

 

[Outsprinted]

I sure like Andy and think he's one of the climbers in the tour. He seems to get crushed in the TTs though. I sure hope he can improve. Otherwise, he'll be just be super domestique in the GTs.

About that... The Schlecklet actually did a good TT in Tour de Suisse where he placed 15th, I don't know but that might be a sign of improvement in the TT.