The Endgame: Showdown in the Alps

[Cobblestones]

Ok, I have compiled averages of estimates for the final ITT:

1) A. Contador
2) C. Evans: +20"
3) A. Schleck: +1'15"
4) S. Sanchez: +1'15"
5) I. Basso: +1'30"
6) F. Schleck: +2'00"
7) T. Voeckler: +2'15"
8) D. Cunego: +3'00"

Compare this with today's GC (end of stage 17):

1) T. Voeckler
2) C. Evans: +1'18"
3) F. Schleck: +1'22"
4) A. Schleck: +2'36"
5) S. Sanchez: +2'59"
6) A. Contador: +3'15"
7) D. Cunego: +3:34"
8) I. Basso: +3'49"

Now, combining the projected results of the ITT with the current GC gives the following picture:

C. Evans:
T. Voeckler: +0'37"
A. Contador: +1'37"
F. Schleck: +1'44"
A. Schleck: +2'13"
S. Sanchez: +2'36"
I. Basso: +3'41""
D. Cunego: +4'56"

So, what is the end game in the alps?

If TV wants to win this, he needs maybe 37" on Evans and he cannot concede more than 1' to AC. Is that possible?

Evans looking good as the virtual MJ, but can't lose too much time in the Alps. Will he hang on to his advantage?

AC is barely in front of the Schlecks. Will AC and AS cooperate to get rid of Evans? But cooperation with AC won't put AS on the top spot.

Is FS the Schleck to watch?

Finally, and this is mostly for the Hitch, if Voeckler, FS and Evans crack, Sammy Sanchez has a good shot at the podium. Will he get a lucky break, maybe a win in stage 19?

 

[il_pirata]

Whoever is in yellow obviously has an immediate boost for the TT.
I think Leopard can't go with Fraenk because on some TTs he can lose a shedload more then 2:00, but I don't think they themselves know what's happening and are maybe leaving it until tomorrow to choose. I wouldn't be surprised to see SamuSchleckAdor try to distance Evans by a big amount tomorrow

 

[Grayguard]

No matter what, I believe you'll see Contador attacking on both 18 & 19. Depending on who is able to follow him, he will choose to either cooperate or try to ditch him/them.

I *hope* others will show some guts and attack too, to make the race even more interesting. But I have no doubt Contador will at least try.

 

[Archibald]

<maths stuff>

AC is barely in front of the Schlecks. Will AC and AS cooperate to get rid of Evans? But cooperation with AC won't put AS on the top spot.

Is FS the Schleck to watch?

Finally, and this is mostly for the Hitch, if Voeckler, FS and Evans crack, Sammy Sanchez has a good shot at the podium. Will he get a lucky break, maybe a win in stage 19?

do you mean "cooperation with AS won't put AC on the top spot"?

stg 19 and 20 is where any Giro fatigue will show for AC, so it's balls out for 18 for him to get a big enough gap to hold on (if possible to drop all the others)

I really think CE can pull this one off, but l'Alpe isn't suited to him so he'll need to be switched on tactically and hope the likes of TV will unwittingly give him a hand in bridging back to attacks

If (and that's a big if) leopard are smart they'll go 100% behind FS. Can't see it though which will hold them back from one of the schlecks taking top spot.

nothing really new in all that i guess...

 

[The Hitch]

While it would be nice to see the Schlecks do somehting (namely push it up Angel), i feel we will have to rely on Contador.

He makes races interesting.

Cycling fans around the world are behind him.

 

[Cerberus]

Ok, I have compiled averages of estimates for the final ITT:

1) A. Contador
2) C. Evans: +20"
3) A. Schleck: +1'15"
4) S. Sanchez: +1'15"
5) I. Basso: +1'30"
6) F. Schleck: +2'00"
7) T. Voeckler: +2'15"
8) D. Cunego: +3'00"

Compare this with today's GC (end of stage 17):

1) T. Voeckler
2) C. Evans: +1'18"
3) F. Schleck: +1'22"
4) A. Schleck: +2'36"
5) S. Sanchez: +2'59"
6) A. Contador: +3'15"
7) D. Cunego: +3:34"
8) I. Basso: +3'49"

Now, combining the projected results of the ITT with the current GC gives the following picture:

C. Evans:
T. Voeckler: +0'37"
A. Contador: +1'37"
F. Schleck: +1'44"
A. Schleck: +2'13"
S. Sanchez: +2'36"
I. Basso: +3'41""
D. Cunego: +4'56"

So, what is the end game in the alps?

If TV wants to win this, he needs maybe 37" on Evans and he cannot concede more than 1' to AC. Is that possible?

Evans looking good as the virtual MJ, but can't lose too much time in the Alps. Will he hang on to his advantage?

AC is barely in front of the Schlecks. Will AC and AS cooperate to get rid of Evans? But cooperation with AC won't put AS on the top spot.

Is FS the Schleck to watch?

Finally, and this is mostly for the Hitch, if Voeckler, FS and Evans crack, Sammy Sanchez has a good shot at the podium. Will he get a lucky break, maybe a win in stage 19?

Can i ask where are you getting those numbers from that you're averaging out?

Whatever the answer though they're at best qualified guesses on a very uncertain event. Your questions seems to be based on treating them as fact. For examples TV doesn't need 37 seconds, he needs to try to hang on for dear life and lose loss time than you project in the TT. It's just not realistic for TV to try to take time on people like Evans, Contador and the Schlecks in the mountians, it's probably not even realistic for him to defends, but it's the best he has barring unforeseen events.

Also AS should, if the opportunity arise, cooperate with AC to drop Evans because it would put him in yellow, and while your project that he would lose more time than he has in the TT that projection is not a fact. On the other hand it is a near fact that AS cannot beat Evans without having an advantage on him going into the TT.

 

[Old&slow]

I don't see Contador being able to take anytime on Evans in the ITT. My bet is he will lose at least 30 seconds possibly over a minute.

I don't believe its because Evans is in better form this year but because Contador and Schleck for that matter are in so much worse form than previous years. When I look at yesterdays stage where Contador and Sanchez are going all out up and down the last climb and they are only able to put 2 minutes into Cavendish I think its because all the top riders are riding poorly. It is not a case of Evans, Basso and Voekler suddenly greatly improving but rather Contador and Schleck dropping to their level. If that is the case, Evans will likely put significant time into Contador and a very large amount of time into Andy in the ITT.

Contador may be getting better but I think he still appears to be very far off previous years form. Evan's will have to have one very bad day to lose this tour.

 

[Merckx index]

Ok, I have compiled averages of estimates for the final ITT:

...

So, what is the end game in the alps?

Thanks for doing this analysis, which gives us a way of framing the final stages. Of course, there is often great variability in ITTs--think Evans in 2008, when he needed about 1:30 on Sastre in a 55 km ITT, and only got about 30". Still, it's a good guide to what the players have to do.

If TV wants to win this, he needs maybe 37" on Evans and he cannot concede more than 1' to AC. Is that possible?

No way. Certainly I can't seem him gaining any time on Evans, and I would be very surprised if he doesn't lose some to him and Bert.

Evans looking good as the virtual MJ, but can't lose too much time in the Alps. Will he hang on to his advantage?

Not if Andy and Bert work together, as you suggest below. Evans' best hope might be the weather results in shortening of stage 18. Even if it doesn't, the Galibier is not all that steep, at least not till near the end, so it's possible the inevitable attacks might not come till near the end, where Bert or Andy can't gain that much. Particularly if Evans forms a grinder's alliance with Basso, keeping up the tempo up on Galibier.

AC is barely in front of the Schlecks. Will AC and AS cooperate to get rid of Evans? But cooperation with AC won't put AS on the top spot.

I was wondering the same thing. Seems to me that this makes sense for the Schlecks, because as your analysis indicates, Bert would probably leapfrog over Andy and maybe Frank in the ITT right now. So if Andy can put time on Evans (and TV if he's still in play), he shouldn't worry about making an alliance with Bert. Cooperation might be particularly effective on stage 18. Given that the Galibier might favor grinders like Evans and Basso, it might be in the interest of Bert and the Schlecks to attack on an earlier climb, working together in the descents. If the three of them get to the Galibier ahead of everyone else, they can duke it out there. Andy and Frank will have a 2:1 advantage, but I think Bert would be happy to find himself in that situation if Evans has been dropped.

Is FS the Schleck to watch?

Again a very interesting question. I think the Schlecks just have to alternate attacks, and assume that if one of the attacks sticks, that is the stronger brother and go from there.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I don't see Contador being able to take anytime on Evans in the ITT. My bet is he will lose at least 30 seconds possibly over a minute.

I don't believe its because Evans is in better form this year but because Contador and Schleck for that matter are in so much worse form than previous years. When I look at yesterdays stage where Contador and Sanchez are going all out up and down the last climb and they are only able to put 2 minutes into Cavendish I think its because all the top riders are riding poorly. It is not a case of Evans, Basso and Voekler suddenly greatly improving but rather Contador and Schleck dropping to their level. If that is the case, Evans will likely put significant time into Contador and a very large amount of time into Andy in the ITT.

Contador may be getting better but I think he still appears to be very far off previous years form. Evan's will have to have one very bad day to lose this tour.

Wiggins put a minute in to Evans on this very course.

No one is on enough crack to suggest Wiggins would beat Bertie by 90 seconds if he were still with us. Contador's form is pretty clearly on an upward trend, for anyone with eyes to see.

 

[Archibald]

Contador's form is pretty clearly on an upward trend, for anyone with eyes to see.

true that, but I think he'll reach a lower peak in terms of how high that form will go - he'll reach it on l'Alpe when the Giro effort will take it's toll. I doubt they'll drop him like they did on Luiz Ardin but he won't be able to drop them. I could be wrong though...

 

[Cobblestones]

Thanks for doing this analysis, which gives us a way of framing the final stages.

Just a few more comments since it has been brought up.

Yes, the ITT gaps are no more than a best? guess. I took the averages from this thread, hoping that sometimes, there's wisdom in masses. Certainly, I'm not asking you to take this numbers as facts, only as guides to be discussed.

To Archibald: no, if Contador performs in the ITT as projected, he'd be in front of both Schlecks (in Paris) even without gaining on them in the Alps.


Let me also answer my own questions:

1) Tommy Voeckler won't win. But I think he has a shot at the podium, and wouldn't that be a great result for him and French cycling!

2) Evans. I'm really undecided about this. A 'virtual lead' over AC by 1'37" could just be enough.

3) AC will end up ahead of both Schlecks, whether they cooperate or not.

4) Leopard/Trek should put their money on Frank. I believe he will be the higher finisher.

5) I don't see enough riders cracking for Sammy to podium. A stage 19 win, on the other hand... in particular if the gaps haven't narrowed down for him.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

Is it just me, or the contenders not take Sanchez seriously? I think he could easily find himself on the podium with the way he's been riding.

With the Schlecks being inferior Time trialists, it's very likely they get nipped off the podium on Saturday.

 

[red_flanders]

Tomorrow is the day. Look for Contador to tear the race apart, TV to lose up to 5 mins and Contador to hang on and consolidate on the Alpe. He'll close in the TT.

Evans may hang on and it may go to the end. No idea about the other spot on the podium, but I do think SS is a contendah.

 

[RdBiker]

Wiggins put a minute in to Evans on this very course.

No one is on enough crack to suggest Wiggins would beat Bertie by 90 seconds if he were still with us. Contador's form is pretty clearly on an upward trend, for anyone with eyes to see.

One successful attack on a 2C mountain doesn't mean his form is back to what we've used to seeing from him. It's probably better than on the first Pyrenees stage but you also have to take into account that most of the top GC candidates have tried to peak for the last week of the Tour. A.Schleck was horrible at TdS so if he hasn't totally fkd up his preparation he should be at his best in the days to come. The same can be said of Basso, Evans, etc.

 

[hfer07]

 

[Grayguard]

One successful attack on a 2C mountain doesn't mean his form is back to what we've used to seeing from him. It's probably better than on the first Pyrenees stage but you also have to take into account that most of the top GC candidates have tried to peak for the last week of the Tour. A.Schleck was horrible at TdS so if he hasn't totally fkd up his preparation he should be at his best in the days to come. The same can be said of Basso, Evans, etc.

You're right. But while we have seen some evidence that Contador's form is improving, the same cannot be said for the other GC contenders.

While I hope, we will see attacks from other riders than Conti on the next 2 stages, I am not gonna hold my breath.

 

[RdBiker]

Just a few more comments since it has been brought up.

Yes, the ITT gaps are no more than a best? guess. I took the averages from this thread, hoping that sometimes, there's wisdom in masses. Certainly, I'm not asking you to take this numbers as facts, only as guides to be discussed.

To Archibald: no, if Contador performs in the ITT as projected, he'd be in front of both Schlecks (in Paris) even without gaining on them in the Alps.


Let me also answer my own questions:

1) Tommy Voeckler won't win. But I think he has a shot at the podium, and wouldn't that be a great result for him and French cycling!

2) Evans. I'm really undecided about this. A 'virtual lead' over AC by 1'37" could just be enough.

3) AC will end up ahead of both Schlecks, whether they cooperate or not.

4) Leopard/Trek should put their money on Frank. I believe he will be the higher finisher.

5) I don't see enough riders cracking for Sammy to podium. A stage 19 win, on the other hand... in particular if the gaps haven't narrowed down for him.

There are so many variables that it's very hard to predict what will happen tomorrow.

1) Agree, except I don't think he'll podium. I'd guess a placing in the top-10, which would still be great for the French.

2) If Evans has the MJ going into the final time trial my guess is he doesn't need much time over Contador. However I'm still afraid he won't be able to keep up on 18 & 19 and lose at least a few minutes to AC/AS

3) My guess is that Contador can't drop Andy but Fränk will crack. I think Leopard have made their choice as who to support (this is based on just seeing Fränk pacing the favourites up the Pramartino though...)

4) If Andy really isn't on form then maybe but in that case I would throw away Leopard's podium hopes

5) Agree. I don't really think he has what it takes if Alberto/Andy are on form.

 

[RdBiker]

You're right. But while we have seen some evidence that Contador's form is improving, the same cannot be said for the other GC contenders.

While I hope, we will see attacks from other riders than Conti on the next 2 stages, I am not gonna hold my breath.

True. Actually when you look at the performances up until this point no one has really shown anything that can be used to estimate their final position in GC at least in my opinion.

Evans - We know he's good on punchy finishes and can climb with the top 5-10 riders. Especially if the climb is short he is one of the best but tomorrow's climbs are neither short nor should it be enough to be the fifth best climber.

Contador - Didn't impress in the Pyreness and his best performances have come on pretty short climbs and downhills.

A.Schleck - Horrendous TdS and a few subpar performances (Le Mur & yesterday) Neither of those stages however didn't favour him so... And we can't know if he was going full gas on the Pyrenees or if he was holding back.

Basso - He looks to be in good form on the climbs but it's still impossible to know if he'll have what it takes tomorrow and on friday - it would be the first time in five years if he did.

I think this is the most unpredictable (to me ) Tour in a long time but then perhaps some one can read this like an open book and on saturday say "I told you so"

 

[Antianti]

Hope to see fireworks, but I have no confidence in Leopard showing up. I'm afraid they'll play it passively and look for counter-attacking. The team can do what Saxo's can't - put on pressure before the climbs. Let's hope they do!

 

[Grayguard]

True. Actually when you look at the performances up until this point no one has really shown anything that can be used to estimate their final position in GC at least in my opinion.

Evans - We know he's good on punchy finishes and can climb with the top 5-10 riders. Especially if the climb is short he is one of the best but tomorrow's climbs are neither short nor should it be enough to be the fifth best climber.

Contador - Didn't impress in the Pyreness and his best performances have come on pretty short climbs and downhills.

A.Schleck - Horrendous TdS and a few subpar performances (Le Mur & yesterday) Neither of those stages however didn't favour him so... And we can't know if he was going full gas on the Pyrenees or if he was holding back.

Basso - He looks to be in good form on the climbs but it's still impossible to know if he'll have what it takes tomorrow and on friday - it would be the first time in five years if he did.

I think this is the most unpredictable (to me ) Tour in a long time but then perhaps some one can read this like an open book and on saturday say "I told you so"

I agree with you.

Somehow I am convinced Contador is ready for the next 2 stages though (I cannot say exactly why), I am less certain about the rest of the contenders...

The *one* thing i do know, is that I am really looking forward to the show tomorrow and friday.

 

[Escarabajo]

Just a few more comments since it has been brought up.

Yes, the ITT gaps are no more than a best? guess. I took the averages from this thread, hoping that sometimes, there's wisdom in masses. Certainly, I'm not asking you to take this numbers as facts, only as guides to be discussed.

To Archibald: no, if Contador performs in the ITT as projected, he'd be in front of both Schlecks (in Paris) even without gaining on them in the Alps.


Let me also answer my own questions:

1) Tommy Voeckler won't win. But I think he has a shot at the podium, and wouldn't that be a great result for him and French cycling!

2) Evans. I'm really undecided about this. A 'virtual lead' over AC by 1'37" could just be enough.

3) AC will end up ahead of both Schlecks, whether they cooperate or not.

4) Leopard/Trek should put their money on Frank. I believe he will be the higher finisher.

5) I don't see enough riders cracking for Sammy to podium. A stage 19 win, on the other hand... in particular if the gaps haven't narrowed down for him.

+1.

Sammy Sanchez has a shot at the podium if he form an alliance with AC. If they go together ala Hinault/Lemmond in 1986.

Andy Schleck can not win anymore.

My 2 cents.

 

[indurain666]

There are so many variables that it's very hard to predict what will happen tomorrow.


3) My guess is that Contador can't drop Andy .

Not a chance!!!

IMO, tmorrow strategies should be:

-Alberto: send a couple of teammates up the road on the Agnello, blow the race apart on the Izoard, get some help from teammates through the valley and hit the Galibier hard (more or less what Pantani did on a similar stage in 98) . If breakaway goes without teammates, use the team to get the breakaway guys within reach on Izoard so that he doesn't have to ride valley by himself if his attack succeeds.

-Evans: try to follow Alberto

-Voeckler: survive and pray for podium

-Schlecks: they already blew yellow options so andy should work for Frank and aim for podium..

-Sanchez: he has to attack hard too and make up time

 

[2wheels]

Cunego bridging to a break and winning by about a minute, ahead of SaxoBank-TepidSchleck-Samu alliance, with Evans/Basso/Voeckler losing at least another minute.

 

[jobiwan]

+1.

Sammy Sanchez has a shot at the podium if he form an alliance with AC. If they go together ala Hinault/Lemmond in 1986.

Andy Schleck can not win anymore.

My 2 cents.

I don't get why you are so confident in this.

Andy Schleck is still AHEAD of Alberto. He kept up just fine with Alberto today, and tomorrow we get back into Andy-land.

Alberto's form may be good, but it isn't '11-Giro good, and it definitely isn't '09-Tour good.

Last year, on a longer, flatter TT course, Alberto only gained 31 seconds on Andy, and Alberto knew all of Andy's time checks before he got there.

If Andy were to have the same margin he does now over Contador (39 seconds, what else? ) in the Time Trial, I think he could hold him off. He would have Alberto's times in front of him as a reference.

Contador needs to get rid of Evans just as much as Andy does. If they work together tomorrow, they may be able to eliminate him.

Then they could fight it out on their own on Friday.

If they can get rid of Evans and Andy gets into yellow, the gap Andy has over Contador could be enough at the moment. I could even see Andy gaining just a few more seconds in fact.

Don't count out Andy just yet.

My two cents

 

[Cobblestones]

Just to throw in a few more numbers:

Betfair odds (07/20 at 4:45 p.m. EDT)

C. Evans: 2.38
A. Contador: 2.56
A. Schleck: 8.8
F. Schleck: 29
S. Sanchez: 38
T. Voeckler: 60
I. Basso: 140
D. Cunego: 340