The Endgame: Showdown in the Alps

[Libertine Seguros]

Yet more of Hitch's least favourite thing going on here: underestimating Samuel Sánchez.

The guy is a better ITT rider than Andy Schleck.

He put 25 seconds into Schleck in Pauillac last year, and that was with an injury and the best ITT Schleck's ever raced. He put 2 minutes into him in País Vasco, and while Schleck isn't really giving his all there he is at least coming into some kind of form for the Ardennes.

At the 2009 Vuelta he lost 5" to Evans in the prologue, but put 15" into him in Valencia, and 4 more in Toledo. He put 40 seconds into Evans in Zalla in País Vasco 2009; I was suspicious that his was not a major race for Evans, but he finished exactly 40 seconds behind Samuel on GC - and both were on the podium.

Admittedly, however, he was over a minute shy of Evans in the Olympic ITT, but that was after the RR victory and Samu has vastly improved his ITT since then too.

 

[royalpig180]

My two cents-

Evans will not win the tour. He will suffer big time in the next two stages for several reasons. First of all, as others have noted, the highest of the high mountains are not and will never be his best terrain. He will get gapped off on both the Galibier and the Alpe. He may not finish several minutes behind or anything like that, but I'd bet that he'll lose at least 2 minutes in total to both Contador and whichever of the two Schlecks decides to be a team leader over the next two stages. Contador will not lose time to Evans in the ITT if he's in yellow and therefore starting last.

Voeckler has no chance to win the Tour. He's been at his limit on the climbs the last two days (and managed to lose time to Evans/Contador) and the same was true at Plateau de Beille. With the true favorites only now reaching top form and the hardest stages yet to come, he'll lose minutes (~5ish total). Top 10 is very possible and that would still be a great result for him and his team. The one way he could possibly (not a big possibility mind you) win the Tour would be if both Schlecks and Contador have bad days over the next two days. In this scenario, he could maybe hang on the back of their group as Evans is deposited out the back. He now needs to pick up time on Evans before the ITT while giving up little, if any time to Contador.

Time is running out/has already run out for the Schlecks. That magical advantage they gained over Contador in the first week of the tour is evaporating day by day. Andy doesn't seem to be on top form, or at least is doing a damn fine job of hiding it if he is. Frank is more consistent, but he doesn't usually have the kick to stay with Contador or his brother when they're really feeling strong. At this point, Contador could probably pass up both of them on the GC with a strong ITT performance (one that we all know he is certainly capable of producing on a course like this). For either of them to win, they need to do something they've never done perfectly before--attacking in turn. Having two climbers on the same team who are at a level to compete for the TdF podium is a major asset that they've largely failed to capitalize on. We need to see perfect teamwork from them over the next two days. They can work with Contador to drop Evans, Basso et. al, but then there's the small matter of dispatching the reigning TdF champion. They can do this if they are able to attack in succession repeatedly. They've shown hints of this so far in this year's tour, but need to go full gas sooner than they have before.

Sanchez is the easiest to overlook, but I think that his best bet is to look for a stage win and the mountains classification. He won't be able to stay with Schlecks/Contador all the way to the top the next two days, and doesn't have it in the ITT to stay with Contador or put major time into the Schlecks. He's very average in that department. HOWEVER, a podium place is possible for him if his alliance with Contador from the past few days continues.

Stage predictions:
18: Sanchez to win with Contador finishing in the same time, Schlecks 20-30 seconds back, Evans a minute back, Voeckler way, way back (2+ minutes).

19: F. Schleck to win the stage, but no major time differences among him, his brother, Contador, and Sanchez. Evans could be up there as well, but they'll all be exhausted from the previous day.

20: Martin to win the ITT. Cancellara will be tired from working for the Schlecks in the mountains and the course is hard enough to suit Martin rather than Cancellara. Martin having already ridden (and won) the ITT in the Dauphine is also a clear advantage.

As for the GC picture, Evans will be best of the contenders, with Contador hardly losing any time. Sanchez will only lose 45 seconds to a minute on them, while A. Schleck will lose maybe a minute and a half. F. Schleck's looking at more like 2-2.5 mins lost. Voeckler will be already out of the picture, but should hang on for top 10.

 

[red_flanders]

Evans will not win the tour.
...

Stage predictions:
18: Sanchez to win with Contador finishing in the same time, Schlecks 20-30 seconds back, Evans a minute back, Voeckler way, way back (2+ minutes).

19: F. Schleck to win the stage, but no major time differences among him, his brother, Contador, and Sanchez. Evans could be up there as well, but they'll all be exhausted from the previous day.

20: Martin to win the ITT. Cancellara will be tired from working for the Schlecks in the mountains and the course is hard enough to suit Martin rather than Cancellara. Martin having already ridden (and won) the ITT in the Dauphine is also a clear advantage.

As for the GC picture, Evans will be best of the contenders, with Contador hardly losing any time. Sanchez will only lose 45 seconds to a minute on them, while A. Schleck will lose maybe a minute and a half. F. Schleck's looking at more like 2-2.5 mins lost. Voeckler will be already out of the picture, but should hang on for top 10.

Good post, enjoyed reading it. One question though. Won't Evans win if your specific stage predictions bear out?

 

[royalpig180]

Good post, enjoyed reading it. One question though. Won't Evans win if your specific stage predictions bear out?

I think it will be very close between him and Contador. It all depends on just how much time Evans loses over the next two stages. Basically, whichever one of the two is in yellow at the start of the ITT will win the Tour. Its hard to predict who will do better in this particular ITT because evans was off form and out of contention at the 2009 Tour ITT, the most recent, relatively comparable one. In general though, I expect Evans to be slightly better going off his ITT's from the early season, though only marginally.

Contador will win, because Evans will lose enough time over the next two days. Could be close though.

EDIT: And yes, you're right. If my specific time gaps play out, Evans would win. Maybe it's just my hoping he loses more time that led me to the above prediction .

 

[the vagabond]

I don't see Evans losing much time in either of the next two stages. Contador is not strong enough to just fly away from everybody, and even if he does get away with Sanchez and one of the Schlecks Evans is always going to have 2 or 3 strong riders (Basso, Cunego, Uran, Schleck 2, Voeckler) to use to limit his losses. I would surprised to see him lose much time at all tomorrow unless somebody is able to get away on the Izoard and perhaps bridge up to a break on the descent. If he gets to the Galibier in good shape I don't think he will crack.

 

[royalpig180]

I don't see Evans losing much time in either of the next two stages. Contador is not strong enough to just fly away from everybody, and even if he does get away with Sanchez and one of the Schlecks Evans is always going to have 2 or 3 strong riders (Basso, Cunego, Uran, Schleck 2, Voeckler) to use to limit his losses. I would surprised to see him lose much time at all tomorrow unless somebody is able to get away on the Izoard and perhaps bridge up to a break on the descent. If he gets to the Galibier in good shape I don't think he will crack.

Part of my concern for Evans is that he may have peaked too soon. He was in really good form in the first week, fighting it out for stage wins (and taking one). The other contenders are peaking right now, and it's hard to say when Evan's will start to come off his peak.

We also seem to fundamentally disagree on just how strong a climber Evans is. I just don't see the evidence that he's on the same level as Contador, the Schlecks, and Sanchez. His best chance to win a GT will come when one of the organizers decides to emphasize TTing more than they have in the past couple years.

 

[Berzin]

All these observations mean nothing if none of the Tour contenders are willing to go into the red.

This is what Evans and both Schlecks have avoided up until now.

This is why, regardless of who podiums, I hope none of these three wins the race. They've consolidated leads that were acquired through crashes and not bold bike riding, and all they've done up to this point is either follow wheels (Schlecks) or attack when there was absolutely nothing to lose (Evans).

Evans has been extremely unimpressive due to this very tactic, and I hope he gets blown out of the water the next two days, him and his stupid cleft chin.

 

[Apollonius]

The brothers Schleck know to win they have to attack tomorrow - No use waiting for Bertie to attack and suck his wheel because the current leads they do have will be eaten up by Cadel and Conti in the ITT. Everybody is expecting Contador to go first but he's in for a shock.
I'm still holding out for a Cadel win, he's the best place and it's his to lose.

 

[No_Balls]

Somehow i can see an early attack by Samu (Col d´Izoard) tomorrow. Him or Navarro/Sanchez.

The spanish inqusition wont cruise tomorrow thats for sure.

 

[red_flanders]

The brothers Schleck know to win they have to attack tomorrow - No use waiting for Bertie to attack and suck his wheel because the current leads they do have will be eaten up by Cadel and Conti in the ITT. Everybody is expecting Contador to go first but he's in for a shock.
I'm still holding out for a Cadel win, he's the best place and it's his to lose.

I don't think what you point out is lost on Contador.

He's going to use them like a couple of rented mules.

 

[red_flanders]

All these observations mean nothing if none of the Tour contenders are willing to go into the red.

This is what Evans and both Schlecks have avoided up until now.

This is why, regardless of who podiums, I hope none of these three wins the race. They've consolidated leads that were acquired through crashes and not bold bike riding, and all they've done up to this point is either follow wheels (Schlecks) or attack when there was absolutely nothing to lose (Evans).

Evans has been extremely unimpressive due to this very tactic, and I hope he gets blown out of the water the next two days, him and his stupid cleft chin.

Great points.

 

[Apollonius]

I don't think what you point out is lost on Contador.

He's going to use them like a couple of rented mules.

I think he'll try - it's a gamble though isn't it? I'll imagine he'll let The Schlecks attack and let Cadel chase them down, then bridge right up to them and attack for himself at some point but he's gambling on his own legs being good enough and the Schlecks not being good enough. We'll see tomorrow

 

[delbified]

All these observations mean nothing if none of the Tour contenders are willing to go into the red.

This is what Evans and both Schlecks have avoided up until now.

what a load of codswallup. evans has been super aggressive, consistently attacking and counter-attacking.

he has a time advantage of his major rivals - he is not going to put himself into the red just to make the race more interesting for cynical observers like you. to do so would be suicidal - it's up to the others to catch him.

so far, evans has shown that he can mark any attack on him and even counter punch. he need do no more than that.

also, my gut is that evans will put time into Dertie, in the ITT. in previous races, evans fell apart mentally - losing sleep and nervous energy. physiologically, he is the man in ITTs and if (if) he keeps it together this year, Dertie can forget about taking time back off him there and the schleck sisters will suffer their worst nightmare.

 

[Merckx index]

Just to throw in a few more numbers:

Betfair odds (07/20 at 4:45 p.m. EDT)

C. Evans: 2.38
A. Contador: 2.56
A. Schleck: 8.8
F. Schleck: 29
S. Sanchez: 38
T. Voeckler: 60
I. Basso: 140
D. Cunego: 340

I’d take TV at those odds. Don’t expect him to win, but I’d waste $10 to have a long shot at winning $600. I think Basso would be an even better play, though. Who's to say he won't ride away from everyone on the long climbs tomorrow and Friday? Again, a little money could go a very long way.

Compare this with today's GC (end of stage 17):

1) T. Voeckler
2) C. Evans: +1'18"
3) F. Schleck: +1'22"
4) A. Schleck: +2'36"
5) S. Sanchez: +2'59"
6) A. Contador: +3'15"
7) D. Cunego: +3:34"
8) I. Basso: +3'49"

Now assume there was no crash in Stage 1:

1) T. Voeckler
2) C. Evans: +1'18"
3) F. Schleck: +1'22"
4) S. Sanchez: +1'45"
5) A. Contador: +2'01"
6) A. Schleck: +2'36"
7) D. Cunego: +3’34"
8) I. Basso: +3'49"

Bert would have a shot at winning even without taking time on Stages 18/19. With minimal gains there he would be firmly in control. Samu would be a strong podium favorite. Both Schlecks likely off the podium.

And also no TTT:

1) T. Voeckler
2) S. Sanchez 1:13
3) C. Evans: 2:04
4) F. Schleck: 2:08
5) A. Contador: 2:23
6) D. Cunego: 3:10
7) A. Schleck: 3:32
8) I. Basso: 3:42

Samu would now be a major contenders for yellow, along with Evans, though Bert would be favored.

To be fair, I don’t think Samu would have been allowed to escape on those two earlier mountain stages if he hadn’t been so far behind. But the time he picked up on those two escapes did not entirely compensate for all he lost in the TTT, let alone the crash. Since stage 2, I don’t think anyone has been better.

 

[42x16ss]

As much as I'd like to see Evans hang on, I still think it's AC's Tour to win.

Why?

I have a gut feeling that Bjarne Riis is finally going to tell Navarro, Sorenson and Porte to get their a$$es off the bench and into the game. This might be about to get ugly.

 

[Berzin]

What a load of codswallup. Evans has been super aggressive, consistently attacking and counter-attacking.

Super-aggressive? When? I obviously missed this, as he only attacks with 500 or so meters to go and has done so maybe three times. It certainly gives one the impression that he's aggressive, but like I said he does so when he's near the line, when it's nice and safe.

He has a time advantage of his major rivals-he is not going to put himself into the red just to make the race more interesting for cynical observers like you. to do so would be suicidal - it's up to the others to catch him.

He will rue the day he began to race like an accountant, because with the next two days there is no telling how much time he'll lose if and when someone has the balls to go for it.

He, and you also, are counting on everything being status quo until the time trial, where he will be (according to you) the prohibitive favorite. This scenario won't play itself out if Contador takes 2-3 minutes out of him on the next two days and loses no time on Saturday. Contador is easily his match against the clock.

So far, Evans has shown that he can mark any attack on him and even counter punch. he need do no more than that.

You cannot be serious. Evans countered bullshyte attacks with equally bullshyte counter-attacks. If those were real attacks, Voeckler would have gotten shelled out the back and you know it.

Also, my gut is that Evans will put time into Dertie, in the ITT. in previous races, Evans fell apart mentally-losing sleep and nervous energy. Physiologically, he is the man in ITTs and if (if) he keeps it together this year, Dertie can forget about taking time back off him there and the schleck sisters will suffer their worst nightmare.

Nice fanboy spin, but your prognostications will come to naught if Contador is feeling like his old self and goes for it. All Evans can do, all he has ever done, is try to follow wheels and ride tempo in the mountains.

I hope he loses 25 minutes tomorrow so that there will be none of this Cadel Evans Tour Champion talk. He doesn't deserve to win.

 

[fujitourer]

I hope he loses 25 minutes tomorrow so that there will be none of this Cadel Evans Tour Champion talk. He doesn't deserve to win.

If his overall finishing time is lower than every other rider in the race, he deserves to win.

 

[delbified]

He, and you also, are counting on everything being status quo until the time trial, where he will be (according to you) the prohibitive favorite. This scenario won't play itself out if Contador takes 2-3 minutes out of him on the next two days

you're missing the fundamental point that "putting himself into the red" is the most likely reason he would lose 2-3 minutes to condator over the next two days. it's just naive to argue that riders should throw caution to the wind in a 3 week GT - they need to conserve energy. even contador has been measured in his attacks - and he needs to make time.

 

[dbrmuz]

Just caught David Millar on ITV.He seems to think Basso will "turn the screws" on everyone else on the Galibier and kick on for the win-or podium at least.

Aye,right!

 

[the vagabond]

If his overall finishing time is lower than every other rider in the race, he deserves to win.

Exactamundo. If Evans does win, there won't be a rider that begrudges him the win, because they know he will have done what it took to get the win. It's only outsiders such as some of the people on this board that think that only certain types of riders deserve to win. If Evans loses, fine, then the Hitches and Berzins of the world can get on with their caterwalling, but until then, just get a grip already.

 

[pitchnduel]

Still wide open

Andy Schleck can not win anymore.

I can't agree with this absolute. I think he probably won't win, but to say he CAN'T win, I'd have to believe: 1) He can't possibly put 2 minutes into Evans; and 2) He can't possibly put 20 seconds into Alberto. I just don't know what I've seen that would convince me that BOTH of those statements are absolutely true.

For the purpose of this analysis, I'm predicting that Alberto and Evans are basically a wash in the ITT, and both should get about a minute on Andy in the ITT.

So, I think Andy CAN win, but he won't. I think Cadel will. Due to current GC positions and (perceived) relative strengths in the ITT, Cadel's strategy can really boil down to: 1) Mark Voeckler and concede no time; and 2) Concede no more than roughly 1 minute to Frank or 2 minutes to Andy, Alberto, or Samu. That seems doable for him. Obviously, starting the ITT in yellow would be a big advantage for Cadel. But, what he really needs to do is insure he starts after Alberto.

Alberto has to put AT LEAST 1:30 into Cadel over the next two days to have a realistic chance. Also, I think Frank's position presents a difficult problem for Alberto. It's not inconceivable that Frank could simply suck Alberto's wheel for the next two stages and end up higher than him in GC when all is said and done. I know Frank's a terrible time trialer, but he has nearly two minutes on Alberto right now. Frank could hang on in the ITT. Alberto's wheel is going to be the natural position for Frank anyway. Frank's current GC position plays well for Leopard's strategy.

Now, if Cadel cracks (entirely possible) and Andy can put as little as 20 seconds into Alberto (also entirely possible), then Andy can win. Also, if Samu joins Andy in putting 20 seconds or so into Alberto following an Evans crack, then he COULD win as well.

I rate them in the following order of likelihood at this point: Evans, Frank, Alberto, Andy, Samu.

 

[richwagmn]

Just caught David Millar on ITV.He seems to think Basso will "turn the screws" on everyone else on the Galibier and kick on for the win-or podium at least.

Aye,right!

Basso would make a good super domestique for Contador. Nothing more. AC can let him win the Vuelta or Giro.

 

[Bennyl]

So from what I'm reading, alot of people are backing Contador, as he is running into form.

Even though he's crashed 4 times and had to put in considerable effort this tour trying to recover time and attack when he wouldn't have normally.

His attacks have been on a couple of category 2s and some downhills of which he hasn't managed to drop Cadel or Sammy and on either day, or Voeckler, the Schlecks and Basso yesterday. In fact, after all the attacks his actual gain over Cadel was nil - a 3 second loss in fact.

Add to that that he rode the Giro as well and many thought he'd be too tired to survive the full 3 weeks of the tour, but after crashes and a couple of vain attempts to gain time on some cat2 climbs... yeah I can see why he's going to ride away from the peleton.

Ok, he does look good and his form may be on the improve, but none of his attacks have really gapped anyone except for one day with a couple of cocky and lazy schlecks, voeckler who is out of his league and basso who does not respond quickly to attacks. It should be interesting and if Contador has ridden himself into top form - he is an animal.

 

[movingtarget]

Super-aggressive? When? I obviously missed this, as he only attacks with 500 or so meters to go and has done so maybe three times. It certainly gives one the impression that he's aggressive, but like I said he does so when he's near the line, when it's nice and safe.



He will rue the day he began to race like an accountant, because with the next two days there is no telling how much time he'll lose if and when someone has the balls to go for it.

He, and you also, are counting on everything being status quo until the time trial, where he will be (according to you) the prohibitive favorite. This scenario won't play itself out if Contador takes 2-3 minutes out of him on the next two days and loses no time on Saturday. Contador is easily his match against the clock.




You cannot be serious. Evans countered bullshyte attacks with equally bullshyte counter-attacks. If those were real attacks, Voeckler would have gotten shelled out the back and you know it.




Nice fanboy spin, but your prognostications will come to naught if Contador is feeling like his old self and goes for it. All Evans can do, all he has ever done, is try to follow wheels and ride tempo in the mountains.

I hope he loses 25 minutes tomorrow so that there will be none of this Cadel Evans Tour Champion talk. He doesn't deserve to win.

Evans has been riding in the style that works for him. He was smart enough to let Frank Schleck and Sanchez go up the road and take some time back when he could afford to. Now he can't do that or lose only small amounts of time. It's not his fault if other riders stop attacking him and they will have plenty of chances over the next two days. Two days ago he worked with Contador to put a gap into the Schlecks, that was not defensive riding. If Evans is good enough and smart enough over the next two days, he will win. I agree with you that Andy Schleck cannot win. The minute he lost at Gap was crucial. He will need to do something super special today as will Basso if they want a chance to win the TDF and Contador and Evans will have to have bad days. I would be surprised if that happened. Sanchez has been looking solid and will obviously be out to work with Contador again if possible.

 

[TimChristy]

I’d take TV at those odds. Don’t expect him to win, but I’d waste $10 to have a long shot at winning $600. I think Basso would be an even better play, though. Who's to say he won't ride away from everyone on the long climbs tomorrow and Friday? Again, a little money could go a very long way.



Now assume there was no crash in Stage 1:

1) T. Voeckler
2) C. Evans: +1'18"
3) F. Schleck: +1'22"
4) S. Sanchez: +1'45"
5) A. Contador: +2'01"
6) A. Schleck: +2'36"
7) D. Cunego: +3’34"
8) I. Basso: +3'49"

Bert would have a shot at winning even without taking time on Stages 18/19. With minimal gains there he would be firmly in control. Samu would be a strong podium favorite. Both Schlecks likely off the podium.

And also no TTT:

1) T. Voeckler
2) S. Sanchez 1:13
3) C. Evans: 2:04
4) F. Schleck: 2:08
5) A. Contador: 2:23
6) D. Cunego: 3:10
7) A. Schleck: 3:32
8) I. Basso: 3:42

Samu would now be a major contenders for yellow, along with Evans, though Bert would be favored.

To be fair, I don’t think Samu would have been allowed to escape on those two earlier mountain stages if he hadn’t been so far behind. But the time he picked up on those two escapes did not entirely compensate for all he lost in the TTT, let alone the crash. Since stage 2, I don’t think anyone has been better.

In all serious, is there an online gambling website that I can bet on the stage winner? I'll take those 140 to 1 Basso odds on a stage like this in a heartbeat.