The Endgame: Showdown in the Alps

[Escarabajo]

I don't get why you are so confident in this.

Andy Schleck is still AHEAD of Alberto. He kept up just fine with Alberto today, and tomorrow we get back into Andy-land.

...

Don't count out Andy just yet.

My two cents

Sorry Jobiwan, but I have nothing against Andy.

Fact is that he has not shown any kind of good form during the year and he has been below form (at least compared to last year) during the Tour de France. In order for him to beat Contador he needs to be in really top form. He has a chance at the podium if he works with Contador. But I think Frank has shown better form. Maybe he should be a nice brother and work for Frank.

Even Contador below form last year beat top form Andy.

Now, I could be wrong, so don't worry, it would not be the first time.

 

[ggusta]

Sorry Jobiwan, but I have nothing against Andy.

Fact is that he has not shown any kind of good form during the year and he has been below form (at least compared to last year) during the Tour de France. In order for him to beat Contador he needs to be in really top form. He has a chance at the podium if he works with Contador. But I think Frank has shown better form. Maybe he should be a nice brother and work for Frank.

Even Contador below form last year beat top form Andy.

Now, I could be wrong, so don't worry, it would not be the first time.

But that's not what Bob Roll just said!

 

[jobiwan]

Sorry Jobiwan, but I have nothing against Andy.

Fact is that he has not shown any kind of good form during the year and he has been below form (at least compared to last year) during the Tour de France. In order for him to beat Contador he needs to be in really top form. He has a chance at the podium if he works with Contador. But I think Frank has shown better form. Maybe he should be a nice brother and work for Frank.

Even Contador below form last year beat top form Andy.

Now, I could be wrong, so don't worry, it would not be the first time.

Oh no problems!
I just don't think Andy is toast as the majority seems to think he is.

Contador to me is still a bit of a question mark, but it's obvious he's very strong.

It's true that Andy hasn't shown super-amazing form, but to me he's still the better option of the 2 Schlecks. He can time trial much better than Frank, and to me he has looked the better climber so far. On Luz Ardiden, Frank was just the lucky one they didn't chase. IMO, they should work for Andy, as he looked pretty good today.

I'm pretty much setting myself up for just another Andy 2nd place, but I think with a great showing tomorrow, he still has a shot for the win.

Unfortunately I have a gut feeling you probably will be right, but of course I hope not!

 

[Escarabajo]

But that's not what Bob Roll just said!

Who's Bob Roll????

How many options there are out there that two people can agree on???

 

[jobiwan]

Who's Bob Roll????

You don't want to know

 

[ggusta]

Who's Bob Roll????

How many options there are out there that two people can agree on???

Bob Roll is a former cyclist and one of the 1st Americans to ever race in the tdf. But sadly, he seems to have suffered some sort of awful head injury or a terrible and quickly deepening form of dementia as a result of oxygen deprivation incurred by having his head up Lance Armstrong;s @$$ for about 12 years. It's a terrible situation, really and he now survives on handouts from 3rd rate cable outlets and boy scouts. We really would be happier if he would just stay locked in the closet but instead versus insists for some weird reason to show him nightly making comments about the stage that just happened as if he is living in alternate universe.

In short, he is attempting to eclipse slavery as our national shame. He has a long way to go to even be close, but wow, he really is trying.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

Ok, I have compiled averages of estimates for the final ITT:

1) A. Contador
2) C. Evans: +20"
3) A. Schleck: +1'15"
4) S. Sanchez: +1'15"
5) I. Basso: +1'30"
6) F. Schleck: +2'00"
7) T. Voeckler: +2'15"
8) D. Cunego: +3'00"

Compare this with today's GC (end of stage 17):

1) T. Voeckler
2) C. Evans: +1'18"
3) F. Schleck: +1'22"
4) A. Schleck: +2'36"
5) S. Sanchez: +2'59"
6) A. Contador: +3'15"
7) D. Cunego: +3:34"
8) I. Basso: +3'49"

Now, combining the projected results of the ITT with the current GC gives the following picture:

C. Evans:
T. Voeckler: +0'37"
A. Contador: +1'37"
F. Schleck: +1'44"
A. Schleck: +2'13"
S. Sanchez: +2'36"
I. Basso: +3'41""
D. Cunego: +4'56"

So, what is the end game in the alps?

If TV wants to win this, he needs maybe 37" on Evans and he cannot concede more than 1' to AC. Is that possible?

Evans looking good as the virtual MJ, but can't lose too much time in the Alps. Will he hang on to his advantage?

AC is barely in front of the Schlecks. Will AC and AS cooperate to get rid of Evans? But cooperation with AC won't put AS on the top spot.

Is FS the Schleck to watch?

Finally, and this is mostly for the Hitch, if Voeckler, FS and Evans crack, Sammy Sanchez has a good shot at the podium. Will he get a lucky break, maybe a win in stage 19?

amazing post, bro! i was mostly astonished by how much i agreed with your assesment of the final tt differences, given all the factors.

what i would really like to know is how differently the team directors evaluate their chances. i would love to be fly on the wall at the leopard team meetings. i bet they are all thinking pretty much the same thing.

 

[2wheels]

So. . . if a break goes up the road tomorrow and Cunego jumps at the base of Izoard to bridge to it, who's going to chase him? I'd bet that Saxo, BMC and Leopard would all just look at each other and play chicken hoping each other will do the work-- which is why I think he might take the stage tomorrow. It may also be a hard day for the gruppetto-- wonder if Cav will 'hang on'!

 

[spanky wanderlust]

Oh no problems!
I just don't think Andy is toast as the majority seems to think he is.

Contador to me is still a bit of a question mark, but it's obvious he's very strong.

It's true that Andy hasn't shown super-amazing form, but to me he's still the better option of the 2 Schlecks. He can time trial much better than Frank, and to me he has looked the better climber so far. On Luz Ardiden, Frank was just the lucky one they didn't chase. IMO, they should work for Andy, as he looked pretty good today.

I'm pretty much setting myself up for just another Andy 2nd place, but I think with a great showing tomorrow, he still has a shot for the win.

Unfortunately I have a gut feeling you probably will be right, but of course I hope not!

would you be happy if andy won by less than 1:42 over a second placed contador? just wondering what an ASFC member would think about that?

 

[AussieGoddess]

Current

1) T. Voeckler
2) C. Evans: +1'18"
3) F. Schleck: +1'22"
4) A. Schleck: +2'36"
5) S. Sanchez: +2'59"
6) A. Contador: +3'15"
7) D. Cunego: +3:34"
8) I. Basso: +3'49"

my predictions

1) TV - I dont think he can hang on in the mountains. Will lose 4 mins+ over the next 2 stages, but I would think he should finish in the top 10

2) CE - I think he will lose a little in the mountains - maybe a minute or a little more. I agree with others who have said it is between Cadel and Alberto .... whoever is in yellow on Saturday will win

3) FS - no chance. Will sacrifice himself for Andy - and will bomb in the ITT and finish way down.

4) AS - will gain some time on CE in the mountains (but I dont think he will drop AC).... but from where he is he needs to gain in excess of 3 minutes on Cadel and about 30 seconds on AC to be in contention. I just dont see it. AS to finish 4th

5) SS - the other true contender. I think Samu is doing pretty well, and will gain time in the mountains (and will win Polka Dots). But I think he wont gain enough time to match it with CE and AC in the ITT, but IMO he is a way better TT'er than the Schlecks so will make up any shortfall to them (if there is one by then) to finish on the podium

6) AC - as above - between him and CE. If he can gain time in the next 2 stages he will win.

Its a strange one for me. I hope Cadel wins (Aussie Aussie Aussie ) but I also picked Alberto from the start and never lost faith in that. I never used to be a fan ... but he won me over in the Giro, and his animation in this tour makes me like him even more.

So I would be happy with either Cadel or Alberto.

 

[Special_oz_ed]

It will be close

2) CE - I think he will lose a little in the mountains - maybe a minute or a little more. I agree with others who have said it is between Cadel and Alberto .... whoever is in yellow on Saturday will win

3) FS - no chance. Will sacrifice himself for Andy - and will bomb in the ITT and finish way down.

4) AS - will gain some time on CE in the mountains (but I dont think he will drop AC).... but from where he is he needs to gain in excess of 3 minutes on Cadel and about 30 seconds on AC to be in contention. I just dont see it. AS to finish 4th

5) SS - the other true contender. I think Samu is doing pretty well, and will gain time in the mountains (and will win Polka Dots). But I think he wont gain enough time to match it with CE and AC in the ITT, but IMO he is a way better TT'er than the Schlecks so will make up any shortfall to them (if there is one by then) to finish on the podium

6) AC - as above - between him and CE. If he can gain time in the next 2 stages he will win.

Its a strange one for me. I hope Cadel wins (Aussie Aussie Aussie ).

I reckon in each of the next two stages Contador has the potential to take 40s off Cadel through sheer acceleration up the climbs, even with Cadel on current form (see stages 14, 15, 16 in 2007). That would still leave Cadel about 1'20"-1'30" in front of AC before ITT. That would be very hard for AC to make up in ITT.

If Cadel cracks on either climb, then the potential is that he could lose a few minutes. However, neither Contador nor Evans looks like cracking, but you never know.

Schlecks - Frank looks to be in marginally better form. I reckon they've both got a greater chance of cracking. I don't think either will be outstanding tonight. They *might* be able to go with AC, but it doesn't look likely. In the ITT, they'll be smashed by Cadel and AC.

Samu - he's looking good.

More than the climbs themselves, I think the altitude will be the factor.

I think the Top 3 in Paris will be Cadel, AC, Samu in any order. I'm hoping it will be Cadel - 1, then either of the other two.

 

[Special_oz_ed]

That's the Tour!

Berzin,

A bit sanctimonious don't you think?

All these observations mean nothing if none of the Tour contenders are willing to go into the red.

This is what Evans and both Schlecks have avoided up until now.

This is why, regardless of who podiums, I hope none of these three wins the race. They've consolidated leads that were acquired through crashes and not bold bike riding, and all they've done up to this point is either follow wheels (Schlecks) or attack when there was absolutely nothing to lose (Evans).

Evans has been extremely unimpressive due to this very tactic, and I hope he gets blown out of the water the next two days, him and his stupid cleft chin.

That's the Tour! People crash; other people's teams are stronger; people get caught in cross-winds; some fracture elbows and still ride! Tough luck. That's the way it goes.

If Cadel wins, he deserves it, regardless of the tactics. If he wins, his tactics are vindicated.

 

[The Reverend]

Interesting discussion! A couple of observations to offer

1. Evans is not riding the same way this year as he has in previous years (for whatever reason). He is spending more time on his ****, higher cadences and generating more rapid accelerations more easily than previous years. Far less 'grinding' out accelerations and steep sections. Also, he has not looked stressed by the efforts of others as he has in other years. I suspect he may ride 18 and 19 quite differently to previous years - we will see!

2. Contador is clearly coming into form as others have said. Will it be enough and will it last (post-Giro) for two stages in the Alps? He has been doing much more standing up and grinding than I haver seen before - interesting. I odn't see him taking significant time of Evans or AS. FS might get shelled by him, I think.

3. The Schlecks - up to now they have bottled it at the times they needed to be courageous. They may go tonight or tomorrow but I don't think it will be enough.

Nobody else is in the frame IMO.

Bring it on!!

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

I think that the route is crap. The first week was a waste, and we only saw a little power climbing at the end of a couple of stages. In the second week no one did anything in the Pyrenees. So we have reached the Alps without anyone showing their cards. Anything can happen today.

 

[Special_oz_ed]

I've found Tour 2011 more interesting

Damiano

I think that the route is crap.

I've actually found this year more interesting than 2009, 2010 precisely because I didn't know who was going to win the Tour by the end of the first week! Last year the battle between Schleck and AC in the mountains was a bit of fun, but the rest wasn't very interesting, because everyone knew AC would smash AS in the TT.

And Voeckler has been a super-star!

This year I really think the route has had something for everyone, and it's kept the suspense (and the BIG mountains) until the end.

 

[patterson_hood]

I think that the route is crap. The first week was a waste, and we only saw a little power climbing at the end of a couple of stages. In the second week no one did anything in the Pyrenees. So we have reached the Alps without anyone showing their cards. Anything can happen today.

To me that's what makes it so exciting, it's very unpredictable and I think todays riding will be brilliant.

It seems to be playing into the hands of Evans, with both Schlecks marking Contador and Contador marking the Schlecks he's not having to put in the effort at the moment, he can just sit there and try and not lose time. I think if he makes it to the foot of the Galibier with them it's really his tour to lose.

I'd like to see someone attack just before the top of the Agnel and blow any tactics out of the window, but I don't think it'll happen.

 

[delbified]

1. Evans is not riding the same way this year as he has in previous years (for whatever reason). He is spending more time on his ****, higher cadences and generating more rapid accelerations more easily than previous years. Far less 'grinding' out accelerations and steep sections. Also, he has not looked stressed by the efforts of others as he has in other years. I suspect he may ride 18 and 19 quite differently to previous years - we will see!

this is the point that many people seem to be missing. cadel has virtually admitted that he cracked mentally in previous years. we tend to analyse the contenders in terms of their physical prowess, like on a sunday ride with your mates, but these guys inhabit a different world where pressure and stress has a much higher impact.

where people have said that cadel can't climb with contador and others, the truth is more likely he's cracked when the pressure has been on. touch wood - he doesn't look like cracking this year. he has the ability and some of the haters may well be disappointed and have to revert to the silly "he didn't win in the style i think he should have" line.

 

[patterson_hood]

this is the point that many people seem to be missing. cadel has virtually admitted that he cracked mentally in previous years. we tend to analyse the contenders in terms of their physical prowess, like on a sunday ride with your mates, but these guys inhabit a different world where pressure and stress has a much higher impact.

where people have said that cadel can't climb with contador and others, the truth is more likely he's cracked when the pressure has been on. touch wood - he doesn't look like cracking this year. he has the ability and some of the haters may well be disappointed and have to revert to the silly "he didn't win in the style i think he should have" line.

I agree with this, he looks very strong this year.

And why would Cadel attack, he has a lead on Contador and if he can take any of that into the final time trial he'll be in an even stronger position. It's professional sport and he'll follow the best tactics he can to win. At the moment they are allow Frandy and Contador to cover the breaks and flow them or team up to bring a break back. He's riding an extremely smart race and I think people should have a lot of respect for him for that.

 

[greenedge]

Yeah i do not think anyone will get away on the Izoard and Contador is still riding into good form. The stage 15 attack looked as if he was still struggling. I also think Contador has not rode Alpe D Huez much has he??? Other than in 05 and did he ride it at Paris Nice/ Dauphinie one year. Or was that Ventoux???

HELLLLLLLLLLLP.

And also Cadel has won a stage Berzin. He has used his team to ride on the front unlike SBS and Euskatel. He has worked hard to gain time before the mountains. That therefore gives him the right to follow wheels as he is the best placed GC contender.

 

[Cerberus]

I agree with this, he looks very strong this year.

And why would Cadel attack, he has a lead on Contador and if he can take any of that into the final time trial he'll be in an even stronger position. It's professional sport and he'll follow the best tactics he can to win. At the moment they are allow Frandy and Contador to cover the breaks and flow them or team up to bring a break back. He's riding an extremely smart race and I think people should have a lot of respect for him for that.

Very sensible post. I personally would prefer Contador to win, both because I'm a Saxo fan and because I don't want the Tour to be determined by a crash. The fact is however that Evans did not push Contador off the bike, and he'd be an idiot not to take advantage of the fact that he does have 2 minutes on Contador. In retrospect it's possible it would have been smart for Evans to attack Contador while he was weak, but hindsight is 20/20. Particularly when I'm projecting a might-have-been since we can never know what would have happened then.

 

[Paco_P]

Like nearly everyone else, I don't much like the Schlecks' style, but I think that AS should not be forgotten on the big hills. At some point he has to attack if he wants to beat Evans, and there's no evidence so far that he can't keep up with or best Contador, Evans, and Sanchez. He's off the lead by a minute or two coming into stages that end going up, where he is most comfortable. Evans perhaps has the disadvantage of being along - the Schlecks come as a pair - and now Contador and Sanchez seem to be working together too - but Contador is almost two minutes behind AS. All AS has to do is beat Evans and keep up with Contador. I don't see any reason to think he can't do the second.

 

[Antianti]

Like nearly everyone else, I don't much like the Schlecks' style, but I think that AS should not be forgotten on the big hills. At some point he has to attack if he wants to beat Evans, and there's no evidence so far that he can't keep up with or best Contador, Evans, and Sanchez. He's off the lead by a minute or two coming into stages that end going up, where he is most comfortable. Evans perhaps has the disadvantage of being along - the Schlecks come as a pair - and now Contador and Sanchez seem to be working together too - but Contador is almost two minutes behind AS. All AS has to do is beat Evans and keep up with Contador. I don't see any reason to think he can't do the second.

Well, if by two minutes you mean 39 seconds..

 

[AussieGoddess]

Like nearly everyone else, I don't much like the Schlecks' style, but I think that AS should not be forgotten on the big hills. At some point he has to attack if he wants to beat Evans, and there's no evidence so far that he can't keep up with or best Contador, Evans, and Sanchez. He's off the lead by a minute or two coming into stages that end going up, where he is most comfortable. Evans perhaps has the disadvantage of being along - the Schlecks come as a pair - and now Contador and Sanchez seem to be working together too - but Contador is almost two minutes behind AS. All AS has to do is beat Evans and keep up with Contador. I don't see any reason to think he can't do the second.

umm - Contador is only 39 seconds behind AS .... and that isnt going to be enough in the TT. AS needs to take time on Contador (and the others) in the mountains if he is to win

 

[Swabian Lass]

Agreed. AS needs significant time on Contador and Evans going into the time trial if he's to stand a chance. And don't forget SS. He may not be up with the likes of Contador in TTs, but he's way good enough to cause grief for AS.

 

[Spaniard]

Like nearly everyone else, I don't much like the Schlecks' style, but I think that AS should not be forgotten on the big hills. At some point he has to attack if he wants to beat Evans, and there's no evidence so far that he can't keep up with or best Contador, Evans, and Sanchez. He's off the lead by a minute or two coming into stages that end going up, where he is most comfortable. Evans perhaps has the disadvantage of being along - the Schlecks come as a pair - and now Contador and Sanchez seem to be working together too - but Contador is almost two minutes behind AS. All AS has to do is beat Evans and keep up with Contador. I don't see any reason to think he can't do the second.

Are you watching the race? AS has just 39 seconds over Contador, not enough, Frank has 1:53 over Contador and he sucks more than Andy in TT.