The Endgame: Showdown in the Alps

[Archibald]

20: Martin to win the ITT. Cancellara will be tired from working for the Schlecks in the mountains and the course is hard enough to suit Martin rather than Cancellara. Martin having already ridden (and won) the ITT in the Dauphine is also a clear advantage.

but days blowing in the HTC train for Cav may have taken it's toll on Martin. It will be an interesting dual between the two of them for sure.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

but days blowing in the HTC train for Cav may have taken it's toll on Martin. It will be an interesting dual between the two of them for sure.

Martin worked for Cav last year too, and finished just 17 secs behind Fabian on a flatter, but similar length course. I can't pick a winner this time.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

EBH will of course win the TT, to ensure that Norway wins 25% of all individual stages.

 

[patterson_hood]

Very sensible post. I personally would prefer Contador to win, both because I'm a Saxo fan and because I don't want the Tour to be determined by a crash. The fact is however that Evans did not push Contador off the bike, and he'd be an idiot not to take advantage of the fact that he does have 2 minutes on Contador. In retrospect it's possible it would have been smart for Evans to attack Contador while he was weak, but hindsight is 20/20. Particularly when I'm projecting a might-have-been since we can never know what would have happened then.

I'm not really a fan of anyone in particular, I just like to see good racing, so that probably rules out the Schlecks... It would be a shame if it was determined by a crash but then we never know how Evans would have rode the last few stages if Contador wasn't so far behind him. I like the way Evans is riding purely because it is so sensible, he knows that going on a silly attack and blowing half-way up a climb will lose him the tour. People would remember the attack for a year or two but they'll remeber the winner for ever.

 

[Special_oz_ed]

Get over the crashes...please.

Patterson,

It would be a shame if it was determined by a crash but then we never know how Evans would have rode the last few stages if Contador wasn't so far behind him.

Crashes happen in the Tour. Unfortunately it's part of the race. If a rider is in a bad position, or is unlucky enough to be caught up in a crash, that's racing.

I'm getting a bit tired of the references to crashes. Evans has had his share of crashes in the past. He's had his share of a half-hearted DS and poorly chosen and developed team, less investment, bad racing schedule etc. That's racing as well. This year we're seeing the benefit of a better team, a better racing schedule, and hence, better preparation.

Excluding doping, the only thing that has determined the outcome of the race so far this year is racing bikes in race conditions (oh, and a couple of media vehicles!).

 

[greenedge]

Could Thor go well in the ITT? I reckon he could. He's on great form. However he might want to sheperd Farrar to a stage win on the Champs- Elysses

 

[patterson_hood]

Patterson,



Crashes happen in the Tour. Unfortunately it's part of the race. If a rider is in a bad position, or is unlucky enough to be caught up in a crash, that's racing.

I'm getting a bit tired of the references to crashes. Evans has had his share of crashes in the past. He's had his share of a half-hearted DS and poorly chosen and developed team, less investment, bad racing schedule etc. That's racing as well. This year we're seeing the benefit of a better team, a better racing schedule, and hence, better preparation.

Excluding doping, the only thing that has determined the outcome of the race so far this year is racing bikes in race conditions (oh, and a couple of media vehicles!).

I'm all for Evans winning the race, he's probably the one I like most of the GC guys, he's in the strongest position and looks much better than previous years, but at the end of the day the crash on the first stage has had a massive impact so far and it'll always be discussed.

I'm not saying Evans couldn't win without it, so far he's shown he can stick with the Schlecks and Contador in the hills and hasn't had to attack to gain time so I think even without the crash he'd be looking good for yellow in Paris.

 

[Special_oz_ed]

Wiggo?

Patterson,

I'm all for Evans winning the race, he's probably the one I like most of the GC guys, he's in the strongest position and looks much better than previous years, but at the end of the day the crash on the first stage has had a massive impact so far and it'll always be discussed.

Fair enough. If we're talking crashes, I think Wiggans' crash has made a massive difference to the shape of the race. Wiggo had his 2009 form (and possibly better) and was a real contender, I think. But again, like AC, it's a case of not being in the right place in the peloton, or plain bad luck.

 

[Cerberus]

Patterson,



Fair enough. If we're talking crashes, I think Wiggans' crash has made a massive difference to the shape of the race. Wiggo had his 2009 form (and possibly better) and was a real contender, I think. But again, like AC, it's a case of not being in the right place in the peloton, or plain bad luck.

Sure with Contador crashing and Andy apparently not being in top shape it's possible that Wiggins could have been a contender. Not sure how his crash invalidates the effect of Contadors though.

 

[jobiwan]

would you be happy if andy won by less than 1:42 over a second placed contador? just wondering what an ASFC member would think about that?

A win is a win, but I'd prefer at least a margin bigger than the time Contador lost in the 2nd crash on Stage 1. That was about 30-40 seconds, if I recall.

 

[Cerberus]

A win is a win, but I'd prefer at least a margin bigger than the time Contador lost in the 2nd crash on Stage 1. That was about 30-40 seconds, if I recall.

1.20 actually. The gap was around 30 seconds, but there was another crash in the peleton which slower down the Contador group further.

 

[Escarabajo]

Bob Roll is a former cyclist and one of the 1st Americans to ever race in the tdf. But sadly, he seems to have suffered some sort of awful head injury or a terrible and quickly deepening form of dementia as a result of oxygen deprivation incurred by having his head up Lance Armstrong;s @$$ for about 12 years. It's a terrible situation, really and he now survives on handouts from 3rd rate cable outlets and boy scouts. We really would be happier if he would just stay locked in the closet but instead versus insists for some weird reason to show him nightly making comments about the stage that just happened as if he is living in alternate universe.

In short, he is attempting to eclipse slavery as our national shame. He has a long way to go to even be close, but wow, he really is trying.

LOL.

Now I know. Thanks.

(actually I already knew but I didn't know he was that sick)

 

[patterson_hood]

Patterson,



Fair enough. If we're talking crashes, I think Wiggans' crash has made a massive difference to the shape of the race. Wiggo had his 2009 form (and possibly better) and was a real contender, I think. But again, like AC, it's a case of not being in the right place in the peloton, or plain bad luck.

I think Wiggins could have stayed with the other GC contenders as well as Evans has so far. Not sure how'd he'd have done today/tomorrow but yeah, I think he was a real contender.

 

[Apollonius]

I don't think what you point out is lost on Contador.

He's going to use them like a couple of rented mules.

Really?

Haha, told you it was a very risky gamble.

 

[Cobblestones]

Ok, the numbers need a serious updating...

Sadly, neither Contador nor Sanchez seem to have the legs today to hang on. Makes it more understandable why they didn't chase seriously on the flats between the Izoard and the Galibier. Cadel might have realized that a little bit too late and his chase should have started earlier. Major props to Voeckler as well who's way out of his league here and is hanging on to the MJ by a very small margin.

Of course the day belonged to A. Schleck who really showed guts today.


Anyway, here it comes:

New GC:

1) A. Voeckler
2) A. Schleck: +0'15"
3) F. Schleck: +1'08"
4) C. Evans: +1'12"

With the projected time gains of the ITT:

1) C. Evans
2) A. Schleck: +0'55"
3) F. Schleck: +1'40"
4) T. Voeckler: +1'55"

We get the 'virtual standing'

1) A. Schleck
2) C. Evans: +0'02" !!!
3) T. Voeckler: +0'43"
4) F. Schleck: +1'36"

Genius!

 

[Kwibus]

So who will win the TdF?

-Voeckler
-Andy Schleck
-Frank Schleck
-Cadel Evans

I have no idea honestly. Yellow jersey gives wings. I like Voeckler, but I hope he doesn't win it all.

 

[Apollonius]

The brothers Schleck know to win they have to attack tomorrow - No use waiting for Bertie to attack and suck his wheel because the current leads they do have will be eaten up by Cadel and Conti in the ITT. Everybody is expecting Contador to go first but he's in for a shock.
I'm still holding out for a Cadel win, he's the best place and it's his to lose.

Told you so.

 

[Kwibus]

Told you so.

I'm really proud of you. really

 

[Cobblestones]

Odds on betfair 07/21 at 3:10 p.m. EDT

A. Schleck : 2.4
C. Evans: 2.4
F. Schleck: 10.5
T. Voeckler: 22
A. Contador: 32
I. Basso: 230
S. Sanchez: 500
D. Cunego: 640

 

[Ramira]

Odds on betfair 07/21 at 3:10 p.m. EDT

A. Schleck : 2.4
C. Evans: 2.4
F. Schleck: 10.5
T. Voeckler: 22
A. Contador: 32
I. Basso: 230
S. Sanchez: 500
D. Cunego: 640

William Hill and Bet365 both have Andy as favourites, only by a fraction though:

William Hill and Bet365 odds:
A. Schleck : 2.15 and 21/20
C. Evans: 2.40 and 13/10
F. Schleck: 8.00 and 15/2
T. Voeckler: 19.00 and 18/1
A. Contador: 34.00 and 22/1
I. Basso: 81.00 and 200/1
S. Sanchez: 201.00 and 250/1
D. Cunego: X and 500/1

 

[Zoncolan]

Odds on betfair 07/21 at 3:10 p.m. EDT

A. Schleck : 2.4
C. Evans: 2.4
F. Schleck: 10.5
T. Voeckler: 22
A. Contador: 32
I. Basso: 230
S. Sanchez: 500
D. Cunego: 640

Seems almost right. I would put Andy slightly ahead of Cadel now. Even if Frank wins the stage tomorrow (which I think he will), he needs at least 1'30" over Cuddles going into the TT IMHO. This is going to be between Andy and Cadel, Frank is out of it. How much of a lead does Andy need going into the TT? I'd say something like 30" to 1 minute. Cadel needs to take time from him tomorrow. Can he? I doubt it.
Seems to me he lost another Tour he should have won. Shame.

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

Coming in second again will crush Evans' confidence.

We can still hope that somehow he pulls off the win. Anything is better than a Schleck win.