The Great Grand-Tour-Game 2012

[Froome19]

Great... now if only we could stop the game now.

Tbh though I dont think the makeup of the top 20 or so on GC will change all that much, but the riders within it will certainly move around a lot..

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I have edited the standings with "outs". TWO, THREE, etc...
I counted riders as outs who are already down by 3+ minutes. It seems those don´t have the legs/stamina, if they falter after just one MTF.
They can come back (breakaways), but it´s doubtful.

After all, Froome, Boomcie & Tuarts look very good now. Those with three outs too. The rest depend on stage wins, it seems.

 

[Froome19]

Key may hopefully be to not pick VDB, Menchov and Monfort all of whom have looked very unconvincing and whom were picked by at least 50% of people.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

To not pick VDB was great. You are one of just two.
Monfort was a 100% guy for me. He´s still in T-30 contention anyway...
Good that i left out Menchov, but i remember he came back late last year. So i won´t count him out yet (only 2.19 mins down).

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

In the end it might come down to this:

 

[jsem94]

Purito.... was he completely dead the last 30 metres or what? Had he only pedaled like three turns in the end he would've won.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Provisionals after 4:
19,5 boomcie (37,5) FOUR
17,5 Kazistuta (36,5) FOUR
16,5 Froome19 (38,0) THREE
--------------------------
16,0 Sylvester (39,5) FOUR
16,0 Duartista (38,5) FOUR
15,5 Eshnar (39,5) FIVE
15,5 gerundium (37,0) FOUR
15,5 Vitapen (36,0) FIVE
15,0 Mellow Velo (37,0) SIX
15,0 Tuarts (35,5) FOUR
14,5 jsem94 (39,5) FOUR
14,0 roundabout (39,5) FOUR
14,0 Hartog (35,0) SIX
13,5 FoxxyBrown1111 (39,5) THREE
13,0 Ferminal (37,0) SEVEN
12,0 Dekker_Tifosi (40,0) SEVEN

FOUR, FIVE, SIX, etc. = "outs" (riders down 5+ mins already)

 

[Ferminal]

You will not be laughing when Froome cracks in the final week and Cobo ends up 2nd.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Hope is the last thing to die.

I had the biggest fall today...

 

[jsem94]

Still very early....

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Already 7 down in GC... hard to keep up hope at the moment.
Giro bad..Tour very good. Vuelta bad. It's clear. I can only predict the most boring race of the year

 

[gerundium]

i'm still doing decently in the OUT count, nobody scored here on the stage prediction so no points lost there.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Already 7 down in GC... hard to keep up hope at the moment.
Giro bad..Tour very good. Vuelta bad. It's clear. I can only predict the most boring race of the year

Yes, you had the same problem at the TdF. But this time the Rabos can´t be blamed for it.

Guess you need your stage wins from now.

i'm still doing decently in the OUT count, nobody scored here on the stage prediction so no points lost there.

That gives me reason for my hope too. And it should be like that, since i declared my T-20 my best ever.

 

[gerundium]

got to commend you on the count btw, it's a decent idea that i think should correlate pretty well with final placings. a cool statistic to check to see if you are still in a close race on the intermediates. they are so volatile due to hitting riders on the right spot in GC.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

got to commend you on the count btw, it's a decent idea that i think should correlate pretty well with final placings. a cool statistic to check to see if you are still in a close race on the intermediates. they are so volatile due to hitting riders on the right spot in GC.

Yeah, but it´s no exact science since it´s difficult to draw a line where to call a rider an out. Plus, breakaways can bring riders back, crashes will happen and some riders will give up later, prefering to finish stages in the gruppetto (it happened to me with Taaramae at the TdF where he looked great, and boom... one day he gave up, from then on he finished "every" stage at 30+ mins).

Anyway, it´s a good compass. And i look good in this case.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Yes, the numbers don´t lie. Degenkolb again. Important point scored.

Congrats Kaz, marching on & tomorrow we´ll score with Rodriguez...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Why did I forget Degenkolb? Oh well. Can always get that coveted record-low score

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Yeah, it seems you wanna own the record book from top to bottom.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Vita & Me could make a big jump if Froome/AC make it to 1-2... I sure hope that will happen.

Provisionals after 6:
19,5 Kazistuta (36,5) FIVE
19,0 Froome19 (38,0) FIVE
19,0 boomcie (37,5) FIVE
------------------------------
18,5 Eshnar (39,5) SEVEN
18,0 Duartista (38,5) FIVE
17,5 Sylvester (39,5) FIVE
17,5 Vitapen (36,0) FIVE
17,5 Tuarts (35,5) FIVE
17,0 jsem94 (39,5) FIVE
16,5 FoxxyBrown1111 (39,5) FIVE
16,5 Hartog (35,0) SIX
16,0 Mellow Velo (37,0) SIX
15,5 gerundium (37,0) SIX
15,0 Ferminal (37,0) SEVEN
13,5 Dekker_Tifosi (40,0) EIGHT
12,0 roundabout (39,5) SEVEN

"outs" at 7+ mins

 

[Eshnar]

Vita & Me could make a big jump if Froome/AC make it to 1-2... I sure hope that will happen.

Provisionals after 6:
19,5 Kazistuta (36,5) FIVE
19,0 Froome19 (38,0) FIVE
19,0 boomcie (37,5) FIVE
------------------------------
18,5 Eshnar (39,5) SEVEN
18,0 Duartista (38,5) FIVE
17,5 Sylvester (39,5) FIVE
17,5 Vitapen (36,0) FIVE
17,5 Tuarts (35,5) FIVE
17,0 jsem94 (39,5) FIVE
16,5 FoxxyBrown1111 (39,5) FIVE
16,5 Hartog (35,0) SIX
16,0 Mellow Velo (37,0) SIX
15,5 gerundium (37,0) SIX
15,0 Ferminal (37,0) SEVEN
13,5 Dekker_Tifosi (40,0) EIGHT
12,0 roundabout (39,5) SEVEN

"outs" at 7+ mins

whoa! seven outs sure don't look good...

 

[jsem94]

Missed out on points today.. -.-

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Is it too late to retire>

First I forget Degenkolb... and overestimate Bouhanni and Swift
Then suddenly Valverde rides and I overlooked that...
And De Gendt and JvdB said they don't really have GC ambitions, also missed that.
Really out of the loop these days.

And ofcourse my gamble-colombian Quintana takes a domestique role for Valverde.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Missed out on points today.. -.-

Well, me too. I had the stats and picked Degenkolb only twice. What a blunder.

Is it too late to retire>

First I forget Degenkolb... and overestimate Bouhanni and Swift
Then suddenly Valverde rides and I overlooked that...
And De Gendt and JvdB said they don't really have GC ambitions, also missed that.
Really out of the loop these days.

And ofcourse my gamble-colombian Quintana takes a domestique role for Valverde.

That sums it up. For all that, it´s amazing that you are only 3 points away from the money.

Provisionals after Stage 7:
20,5 Kazistuta (36,5) FIVE
18,5 Duartista (38,5) FIVE
17,5 Eshnar (39,5) SEVEN
---------------------------------
17,5 FoxxyBrown1111 (39,5) SIX
17,0 boomcie (37,5) FIVE
17,0 Hartog (35,0) SEVEN
16,5 Sylvester (39,5) FIVE
16,5 Vitapen (36,0) SIX
16,0 jsem94 (39,5) SIX
16,0 Froome19 (38,0) FIVE
16,0 Tuarts (35,5) FIVE
15,0 Ferminal (37,0) SEVEN
14,5 Dekker_Tifosi (40,0) EIGHT
14,5 gerundium (37,0) SIX
13,5 Mellow Velo (37,0) SEVEN
12,0 roundabout (39,5) SEVEN

"outs" at 8+ mins

 

[aarnold517]

Wow, given that degenkolb has won three stages and marczynski and ten dam are currently ahead of anton and uran in the GC, i can only say i'm actually glad i didn't qualify for the vuelta because it would've been ugly

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Nice that you have a look. BTW, those guys up in the standings (Marczynski, Ten Dam, etc.) is the reason we all have at least 5 "outs". I think you would be doing pretty well...