The Monuments Men – Or who will win all 5 of them?

[Kwaremonster]

Genuinely curious, you don't think there is a decent chance LBL might be in for another route change relatively soon? The last three editions have been quite dreadful so I can see them reverting to a route trying to keep things together a bit longer.

It's also the riders that make the race. If somehow Evenepoel and Pogacar are of similar level, and have the classic battle that was always promised to us, it could suddenly be a great race. We can hope at least.

 

[Jan the Man]

It's also the riders that make the race. If somehow Evenepoel and Pogacar are of similar level, and have the classic battle that was always promised to us, it could suddenly be a great race. We can hope at least.

Great to see Remco win yesterday- encouraged that this may mean a duel at last. Pog surely cannot be as good in Liege as he has been so far (albeit he will obviously be the big favourite) and if he’s slightly off i can see a classic battle between the two at last.

 

[Roku]

The only one who has a realistic shot about it is Pogacar. He would have already done it if it wasn't for Van Der Poel. But he is going to have a hard time to win both, especially San Remo, which will be extremely hard unless VDP misses one edition.

As for the others - I can't see Van der Poel winning Lombardia. LBL is a tough ask, but could be in his reach. Anyways he would need a decimated field and, of course, no Pogacar or Evenepoel.

Evenepoel can definitely win Lombardia, could also win RVV if he improves his technique in cobbles (looked better in Brabantse Pijl than in his previous attempt), as well as Roubaix and San Remo, but I see to many "ifs" and unlikely scenarios to see it happeing.

Van Aert is definitely impossible. He has the best allround ability behind Pogacar and he has won San Remo, which is arguably the hardest to obtain, but the guy is unable to land big wins even when has been the best of the field... Now he is clearly behind Pogacar, Van Der Poel and not superior than Pedersen, so very little chances

Something like this:
Pogacar - 60%
Van der Poel - 10%
Evenepoel - 5%
Van Aert - 0.01%

 

[rghysens]

Great to see Remco win yesterday- encouraged that this may mean a duel at last. Pog surely cannot be as good in Liege as he has been so far (albeit he will obviously be the big favourite) and if he’s slightly off i can see a classic battle between the two at last.

Why not? Did you watch cycling last year?

 

[Jan the Man]

Why not? Did you watch cycling last year?

I think he can be - but it is not an inevitability - holding absolute top form for 7 weeks is difficult. If Pog is off a little and Remco hitting peak that makes it more competitive.

Obviously i still expect Pog to win and is the big favourite as per my post and he can also win when not absolutely at top of peak. However Remco can absolutely make it a very competitive race if the cards fall right.

 

[Filippo_3467]

I think Remco is the only one other then Pogi who has a real shot. He's a great one day racer and should be suitable for all terrains. Even the sprint is much better now. Without a complete route change at Lombardia I don't see MvdP even competing for it. He even doesn't ride LBL. Maybe he's not that interested in chasing the all monuments.

Remco on cobbles is a big if, but he has gotten a lot better over the years and Roubaix could suit him with his ability to ride his own tempo on the flat.

From the young guns that could be still in their prime when Pogi, MvdP and Remco decline or stop cycling all together I think Nys and Blackmore are the two interesting names that could have a chance to compete in all the monuments.

But of course a lot depends if Pogi will retire after 2030 when he has won everything you can win...I think it's quite a valid theory that the trend to people starting to compete with 20/21 for the big victories don't ride like the old generation til they are 36 or 37.

 

[Kwaremonster]

I expect MvdP has maybe 1 or 2 more years in him that he can be at this level. After that he might not be able to win MSR or decide who will win there. Then the chances for Pogi increase dramatically. Same goes for Paris Roubaix. Paris Roubaix is definately in his reach, they can learn from this attempt and that can only go better. All in all I give Pogacar the best chance, not least because he also seems really motivated to pull this off and does not crash a lot.

MvdP is not in this conversation for me, he was never even motivated to do this and has never shown that he can climb well enough to win Lombardia.

Evenepoel has the engine, but he also has shown little interest in all the monuments. Maybe he is also afraid of all the nervous racing in Flanders and Roubaix. Then again, as a Flemish rider you would expect him to try the Tour of Flanders once and if that goes well, who knows. I also think that he is a great grand tour rider, but really truely exceptional as a one day racer. The moment he shifts his attention more to the one day races he is automatically in the conversation for me. For now, he has only won one out of the five monuments.

 

[tobydawq]

The only one who has a realistic shot about it is Pogacar. He would have already done it if it wasn't for Van Der Poel. But he is going to have a hard time to win both, especially San Remo, which will be extremely hard unless VDP misses one edition.

As for the others - I can't see Van der Poel winning Lombardia. LBL is a tough ask, but could be in his reach. Anyways he would need a decimated field and, of course, no Pogacar or Evenepoel.

Evenepoel can definitely win Lombardia, could also win RVV if he improves his technique in cobbles (looked better in Brabantse Pijl than in his previous attempt), as well as Roubaix and San Remo, but I see to many "ifs" and unlikely scenarios to see it happeing.

Van Aert is definitely impossible. He has the best allround ability behind Pogacar and he has won San Remo, which is arguably the hardest to obtain, but the guy is unable to land big wins even when has been the best of the field... Now he is clearly behind Pogacar, Van Der Poel and not superior than Pedersen, so very little chances

Something like this:
Pogacar - 60%
Van der Poel - 10%
Evenepoel - 5%
Van Aert - 0.01%

Van der Poel has 10% chance of winning both LBL and Lombardia??

Regarding the discussion on page 1, I'm beginning to think that Kwiatkowski will not obtain the monument slam.

 

[Gigs_98]

Van der Poel has 10% chance of winning both LBL and Lombardia??

Regarding the discussion on page 1, I'm beginning to think that Kwiatkowski will not obtain the monument slam.

I love the Fabio Felline name drop on page 1. Guy was in great shape that spring (I remember him doing great things for my CQ team around that time) and disappeared into thin air like a month after this thread was created. I was genuinely shocked to find out he was still riding until last year. Just completely lost his level when he was supposedly just entering his prime.

 

[topcat]

I love the Fabio Felline name drop on page 1. Guy was in great shape that spring (I remember him doing great things for my CQ team around that time) and disappeared into thin air like a month after this thread was created. I was genuinely shocked to find out he was still riding until last year. Just completely lost his level when he was supposedly just entering his prime.

I especially like the line in the op: There is no need to compare any rider with Merckx.

 

[Rockestar_33]

I especially like the line in the op: There is no need to compare any rider with Merckx.

Only more dominant individual in world sport that I know of is Don Bradman