His back issues were so serious that in 2023 he destroyed Pogacar in San Remo. He tried the same this year, Pogacar responded.
If we use San Remo as a reference, Pogacar improved more compared to Van Der Poel.
It's true, however, that his position before Kwaremont 2 was horrible and he spent energy chasing back after a mechanical.
I don't think the San Remo comparison is particularly useful at all.
In 2023 San Remo, MVDP didn't put his nose in the wind at all until he made one single attack near the top of Poggio (after Wout closed a tiny gap for him). The gap he got from that attack was not much larger than the gap he got this year, it was just nearer the top so he was able to drop onto the descent before Pogacar could close.
I'd argue his San Remo performance this year was more impressive, but not really telling of what will happen tomorrow.
The question for me is if he has really improved his 10-15 minute efforts, as has been mentioned in a few articles already, or whether he will be dropped again on Kwaremont. I don't see any reason the gap between Pogacar and MVDP on these climbs will be any bigger than in 2023, but it will need to be quite a bit smaller for Mathieu to win.