Teams & Riders The "MVP" Mathieu Van der Poel Road Discussion Thread

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Jul 16, 2024
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Everyone's first priority has to be beating Pogacar. Trying to improve your chances in the event of Pogacar losing just ensures that Pogacar will win.
 
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Mar 20, 2022
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Agree, van Aert and Pedersen were both impressive today. Should both be in a good mental place going into PR. I really think van Aert will be dangerous in PR. He looked damn good in 2023 but had that unlucky puncture in the end.
Wout is the reason why I said MVP would have his worst season ever but he won MSR so I was wrong.
I knew he would follow Pog in MSR but I thought someone else would win.
In RVV, Pogacar was my bet and this time I was roght.
In PR, I think Wout will not let MVP go away so I expect someone else to win (I hope for Pogacar).
 
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Oct 15, 2017
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Everyone's first priority has to be beating Pogacar. Trying to improve your chances in the event of Pogacar losing just ensures that Pogacar will win.
But it decreases their own chance to win. Instead of racing with Pog, you are racing against everyone else or run the risk of being done by the numbers from a strong team.
 
Jun 17, 2024
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Chapeau to MvdP, but sorry if this was a surprise to anyone—you’re setting yourself up to be surprised. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, and it’s nothing to do with MvdP because he is beyond incredible in RVV and arguable one of the best ever and a true champion.

However, Pogacar, at the end of last year and even at MSR this year, how he redefined the race even. It should be a foregone conclusion to everyone what would happen, even in RVV. It’s nothing against MvdP because he is amazing. It is what it is.
 
Oct 15, 2017
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He didnt do too much work.

He would lose the race closing too many gaps and Visma/Trek would have used their numbers. Or he would be relying on them to close gaps to other riders. He would have less of a chance vs Van Aert or Pedersen in a sprint, rather than go with Pog and try hang on to win the sprint vs him. He didnt, so he lost.
 
Jul 16, 2024
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But it decreases their own chance to win. Instead of racing with Pog, you are racing against everyone else or run the risk of being done by the numbers from a strong team.
When riding against anyone other than Pogacar: Chances of Pogacar winning: 90% Chances of you winning in case Pogacar loses: 50%. So that's a 5% chance.

When riding against only Pogacar: Chances of Pogacar winning: 70% Chances of you winning if Pogacar loses: 33%. A 10% chance.

Those are obviously just numbers I pulled out of my asterisks, but they explain my point.
 
Oct 15, 2017
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When riding against anyone other than Pogacar: Chances of Pogacar winning: 90% Chances of you winning in case Pogacar loses: 50%. So that's a 5% chance.

When riding against only Pogacar: Chances of Pogacar winning: 70% Chances of you winning if Pogacar loses: 33%. A 10% chance.

Those are obviously just numbers I pulled out of my asterisks, but they explain my point.
Not making any sense at all.
 
Jul 16, 2024
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Not making any sense at all.
OK then, I'll make it simple for you. MvdP riding to beat WvA guaranteed a Pogacar victory. Only if he'd ridden to beat Pogacar at all costs, would he have had any chance of winning.
 
Oct 15, 2017
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MVDP has no other choice but to work and will do that, because he sees it as his best chance to win here.

If he doesnt go with Pog or just stop riding after every berg. The others come back and someone out of the Visma/Lidl guys... or riders from other teams will sneak away.

The others came back anyway here but if you get dropped every time... you will eventually not be able to come back.

MVDP chance was to ride and hope he could hold on in the end.

It is his best chance to win. Unless, he just tries to neutralize Pog to ride for someone else to win... other than himself or Pog.
 
Sep 1, 2023
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When riding against anyone other than Pogacar: Chances of Pogacar winning: 90% Chances of you winning in case Pogacar loses: 50%. So that's a 5% chance.

When riding against only Pogacar: Chances of Pogacar winning: 70% Chances of you winning if Pogacar loses: 33%. A 10% chance.

Those are obviously just numbers I pulled out of my asterisks, but they explain my point.
So everyone has a (5+10)15 % chance winning against Pogacar.
 
Oct 15, 2017
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OK then, I'll make it simple for you. MvdP riding to beat WvA guaranteed a Pogacar victory. Only if he'd ridden to beat Pogacar at all costs, would he have had any chance of winning.
He rode to increase is own chance to win, he hoped he could follow Pog which was his best chance to win. Like in 2022.
 
Jun 17, 2024
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I don’t get why it’s hard to call it like it is. MvdP tried to follow Pogacar one too many times and paid the price—he clearly got cooked, which, by the way, is no shame in doing.

He tried; there’s nothing else to it. It’s no disrespect—the guy is a beast and a true champion. But crying about the guy trying to follow and win the race, only for it to turn out that he paid for it, is unnecessary. It should be pure respect for trying—nothing else. Stop the excuses. A doesn’t need to mean B; this is why some of you get surprised in too many races where you shouldnt.