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Teams & Riders The "MVP" Mathieu Van der Poel Road Discussion Thread

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Salvarani

Oct 15, 2017
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AmRacer said:
Visma and Trek would've attacked and Pogi & Mathieu must getting them back. So eventually Mads, Steuven or Wout could have slipped away.
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Mathieu would have to spend energy closing gaps or hope he gets away in a move like that.

So this isnt really a good option either. He would have to spend energy closing gaps and working no matter what.

His biggest chance to win is to ride with Pog, if he is in the race with him.

Like Ronde 2022 and MSR 2025. Or attack on his own and drop Pog, like Glasgow WC and his other win in MSR.
 
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Medvind

Jun 27, 2024
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Peyroteo94 said:
Exactly. He gambled and he lost. In MSR, he won even if he wasn't the strongest (just did a half pull once on Cipressa).
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As long as he is sharp he is a threat on courses where explosivity counts. MSR is just not hard enough to wear VDP down. Logically Pog will have a harder time to beat VDP in PR because of lack of climbs. Not saying it's impossible just harder.
 
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Peyroteo94

Peyroteo94

Mar 20, 2022
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Medvind said:
Agree, van Aert and Pedersen were both impressive today. Should both be in a good mental place going into PR. I really think van Aert will be dangerous in PR. He looked damn good in 2023 but had that unlucky puncture in the end.
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Wout is the reason why I said MVP would have his worst season ever but he won MSR so I was wrong.
I knew he would follow Pog in MSR but I thought someone else would win.
In RVV, Pogacar was my bet and this time I was roght.
In PR, I think Wout will not let MVP go away so I expect someone else to win (I hope for Pogacar).
 
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James M

James M

Jun 17, 2024
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Chapeau to MvdP, but sorry if this was a surprise to anyone—you’re setting yourself up to be surprised. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, and it’s nothing to do with MvdP because he is beyond incredible in RVV and arguable one of the best ever and a true champion.

However, Pogacar, at the end of last year and even at MSR this year, how he redefined the race even. It should be a foregone conclusion to everyone what would happen, even in RVV. It’s nothing against MvdP because he is amazing. It is what it is.
 
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Salvarani

Oct 15, 2017
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He didnt do too much work.

He would lose the race closing too many gaps and Visma/Trek would have used their numbers. Or he would be relying on them to close gaps to other riders. He would have less of a chance vs Van Aert or Pedersen in a sprint, rather than go with Pog and try hang on to win the sprint vs him. He didnt, so he lost.
 
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E_F_

E_F_

Jul 16, 2024
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Salvarani said:
But it decreases their own chance to win. Instead of racing with Pog, you are racing against everyone else or run the risk of being done by the numbers from a strong team.
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When riding against anyone other than Pogacar: Chances of Pogacar winning: 90% Chances of you winning in case Pogacar loses: 50%. So that's a 5% chance.

When riding against only Pogacar: Chances of Pogacar winning: 70% Chances of you winning if Pogacar loses: 33%. A 10% chance.

Those are obviously just numbers I pulled out of my asterisks, but they explain my point.
 
James M

James M

Jun 17, 2024
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Red Rick said:
Strongest rider won. And that doesn't need to guarantee a win if you're smart.
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True, but it was evident he was cooked when he half-cooperated with Pogacar after each attack—there’s no shame in that.

At the end of the day, we have to look at it with the complete picture. It’s an inhuman task he is up against—he didn’t bottle anything. Sure, he could be more cynical, indeed, but still, the task is inhuman. Let’s just call it what it is.
 
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Salvarani

Oct 15, 2017
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E_F_ said:
When riding against anyone other than Pogacar: Chances of Pogacar winning: 90% Chances of you winning in case Pogacar loses: 50%. So that's a 5% chance.

When riding against only Pogacar: Chances of Pogacar winning: 70% Chances of you winning if Pogacar loses: 33%. A 10% chance.

Those are obviously just numbers I pulled out of my asterisks, but they explain my point.
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Not making any sense at all.
 
James M

James M

Jun 17, 2024
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Red Rick said:
You're just basically making *** up right now
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Nah, I just don’t think he bottled anything. It’s almost impossible to do anything against this.

His only chance, like everyone else’s, was to never try to follow and let Pogacar go alone at the second Kwaremont, gambling that he cooks himself. Mano a mano, or even half mano a mano, it was never going to be close, but yeah.

No shame, a true champion I just dont think he bottled anything and its no shame in trying, and that doesnt equal ''bottling'' that requires your the strongest in the first place — which by your words he wasnt.
 
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Salvarani

Oct 15, 2017
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MVDP has no other choice but to work and will do that, because he sees it as his best chance to win here.

If he doesnt go with Pog or just stop riding after every berg. The others come back and someone out of the Visma/Lidl guys... or riders from other teams will sneak away.

The others came back anyway here but if you get dropped every time... you will eventually not be able to come back.

MVDP chance was to ride and hope he could hold on in the end.

It is his best chance to win. Unless, he just tries to neutralize Pog to ride for someone else to win... other than himself or Pog.
 
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A

AmRacer

Sep 1, 2023
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E_F_ said:
When riding against anyone other than Pogacar: Chances of Pogacar winning: 90% Chances of you winning in case Pogacar loses: 50%. So that's a 5% chance.

When riding against only Pogacar: Chances of Pogacar winning: 70% Chances of you winning if Pogacar loses: 33%. A 10% chance.

Those are obviously just numbers I pulled out of my asterisks, but they explain my point.
Click to expand...
So everyone has a (5+10)15 % chance winning against Pogacar.
 
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