The probability that MvdP will drop MTB altogether is 0%.
A 'reasonable' plan would be to make less switches between disciplines than last season, in order to give his back some respite.
There is no juicy Roubaix-Leuven combo to prepare his autumn road season for anyway, so nobody would protest if he only did MTB after the tour. There's certainly plenty of interesting options :
- July 29-31: Snowshoe, USA (XCO/XCC)
- August 5-7: Mont-Sainte-Anne, Canada (XCO/XCC)
- August 19 - MTB European Championships Munich (XCO)
- August 24–28: UCI MTB World Championships Les Gets, France (XCO/XCC)
- September 2-4: Val di Sole, Italy (XCO/XCC)
- September 17-18: UCI World Marathon MTB Val di Sole, Italy (XCO/XCC)
Although that first race is very quickly after his first full Tour, which he intends to finish come season.
If you look at his 'obvious' racing blocks:
Cyclocross
December 18 - January 30 (10-12 CX races)
Prepare for spring classics
February
Spring classics
March 5 - April 17 (Strade, San Remo, E3, Ronde, Amstel, Roubaix)
Prepare for Tour
June
Tour de France
1 - 24 July (he'll seek to finish it)
that leaves open all of May as way too empty for his liking. And hey, there are two MTB World Cups in May 2022. So knowing MvdP, he'll trust in doing a few extra back stretches after breakfast and go for two MTB racing blocks:
MTB block 1
May 5 - May 22
MTB block 2
August 5 - September 4 (or 17)