Against normal opposition, he would, but Van Aert can potentially go top 10 on every stage of the race. But it's true that with the level Philipsen demonstrated this fall, he shouldn't be discounted.
I guess my antipathy against choosing him also stems from the fact that a battle between Mathieu and Wout for the green jersey would probably be one of the things I would like to see the most in cycling.
And I don't think it hurts a rider to go for green. Sagan wasn't exactly Mr Anonymous in his first many Tour participations, so now I wonder how he would have done if he hadn't "had his wings clipped" from going for green.
You're comparing Sagan, who is basically a phenomenon when it comes to positioning in sprints, to Van der Poel, who is arguably poor at it?
Philipsen, as a sprinter, is much closer to Sagan than Van der Poel is. Not the absolute fastest, but great positioning making him an outsider for any sprint, and a surefire bet on a top 5 finish.
On top of that, which other sprinter was in Sagan's team back then that could have won green?
Of course it's pompous. That doesn't necessarily mean it wouldn't make sense.
But I would much rather see a versatile guy like Van der Poel go for it. But I too think they will most likely try with Philipsen and then realise that he doesn't stand a chance.
Which would be worse than trying with Van der Poel and then realize he doesn't stand a chance?
I think the chance he loses too many points in the pure mass sprints, is equally big as Philipsen not being able to follow on the harder stages. Again, Philipsen is making a lot of progress year after year. He's 23. He was already as fast or faster than Van der Poel as a pure sprinter, next year he will probably be even faster.
And if it makes sense, it isn't pompous. Then it simply makes sense.
Philipsen has been finishing very high in the "most top 10's without a win" competition before he started winning. There is a high probability he will rack up a lot more points in sprints than Van der Poel. Look at last year's TDF results. He never won a stage, but 6(!) podiums in sprint stages. That's 4 more than Van Aert and 1 more than Cavendish.