Teams & Riders The "MVP" Mathieu Van der Poel Road Discussion Thread

[senna6541]

Never actually bet on a bike race before (or any sport), but I think I saw on a site you could get MVDP at 9/1 at RVV? Can't be right? Had Wout at 3/1 and even Asgreen at 7/1. My guess is MVDP drops both their asses on the key climb. Wout can't get over the mental hurdle or explosiveness of MVDP and Asgreen is simply a level below - had is luck last year.

 

[senna6541]

Maybe....great rivalry

Just meant MVDP usually beats him - like he usually beats everyone.

 

[senna6541]

Or maybe its just what his body needed to recover.

Hard to say with a freak like MVDP. But what we do know for certain is that when he can hit is top level, he is basically unbeatable straight up in CX, MTB, races like SB, RVV, PR, etc. Wout fans don't want to face it, but he is a level below MVDP when both are on equal relative form. The data clearly shows that.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Never actually bet on a bike race before (or any sport), but I think I saw on a site you could get MVDP at 9/1 at RVV? Can't be right? Had Wout at 3/1 and even Asgreen at 7/1. My guess is MVDP drops both their asses on the key climb. Wout can't get over the mental hurdle or explosiveness of MVDP and Asgreen is simply a level below - had is luck last year.

That must have been a mistake which could cost the bookmark dearly.
Prices for the favourites seem to be 2/1 Van Aert 3/1 VdP 6/1 Asgreen - who, by the way, was not lucky last year.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

That must have been a mistake which could cost the bookmark dearly.
Prices for the favourites seem to be 2/1 Van Aert 3/1 VdP 6/1 Asgreen - who, by the way, was not lucky last year.

He was 9/1 a week ago before MSR but now his odds have dropped a lot. He was also an insane 33/1 to win MSR.

 

[Billie]

I have him at 50-1 to won both Ronde and Roubaix.

 

[senna6541]

I have him at 50-1 to won both Ronde and Roubaix.
[/QUOTE
Crazy. When did you get those odds? If he's truly healthy, and destroys everyone on Wednesday, he probably ends up starting as the favorite for both. If he can get to top form, he's almost impossible to beat in those races - minus mechs and bad luck, both those things are factored in everyone's odds.

 

[senna6541]

BTW, both Hincapie and Bruyneel took him as their favorite for RVV.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

50:1 to win both Flanders and Paris-Roubaix is not that crazy. That's approximately 6:1 to win each - which is certainly good but not crazy. I don't really like combining odds, though as it just increases variance and basically make you increase your bet size. For instance, in this scenario, if you bet $50 on him to win both Flanders and Paris-Roubaix at 50:1, you're basically risking $50 at 6:1 to win Flanders and then $350 at 6:1 to win Paris-Roubaix.

 

[senna6541]

Damn Hugo. Way over my head. The stock market is enough of a gamble for me right now (heavy in Growth with a fairly short timeline). Still, nothing would surprise me with MVDP.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

yet for all top 10 he only won 1 RVV from the monuments. So his winrate here is lower than you'd expect.

I think if he picks up 1 monument win he can be satisfied. Anything more is a suprise to me. These races are not easy to win and all the others, WVA, Asgreen etc are no pushover.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

This year, VDP is the number one favorite for Flanders. He'll be sunday at top level, he is much fresher than his rivals (Van Aert, Asgreen), has more explosivity. The only question is Pogacar. He will be good. But the lack of experience will play tricks on him. I don't think Pogacar will dare to attack from afar this time. And VDP loose on the Patersberg, I don't think so. And in a sprint with two or three, I don't think Pogacar will beat VDP. But all is possible, like last year.

 

[fox]

This year, VDP is the number one favorite for Flanders. He'll be sunday at top level, he is much fresher than his rivals (Van Aert, Asgreen), has more explosivity. The only question is Pogacar. He will be good. But the lack of experience will play tricks on him. I don't think Pogacar will dare to attack from afar this time. And VDP loose on the Patersberg, I don't think so. And in a sprint with two or three, I don't think Pogacar will beat VDP. But all is possible, like last year.

WVA is in much better shape than last year. If you see how he rode on the Pater in the E3 and the Kemmel in Gent Wevelgem, I don't really see him being dropped by MVDP. A sprint between the 2 of them is more likely, I believe.

And sprinting after a 270K tour of Flanders is not sprinting after a flat stage in the Tour de France. MVDP beat WVA 2 years ago and Asgreen beat MVDP last year. In both cases the "weaker" sprinter. So I wouldn't rule out Pogacar in a sprint either.

 

[OlavEH]

This year, VDP is the number one favorite for Flanders. He'll be sunday at top level, he is much fresher than his rivals (Van Aert, Asgreen), has more explosivity. The only question is Pogacar. He will be good. But the lack of experience will play tricks on him. I don't think Pogacar will dare to attack from afar this time. And VDP loose on the Patersberg, I don't think so. And in a sprint with two or three, I don't think Pogacar will beat VDP. But all is possible, like last year.

I really can't see how Pogacar will be a bigger threat to VdP than Van Aert.

 

[Axel Hangleck]

Tomorrow is his first race over the cobbles since his return from back issues; we're all assuming he'll be fine. However, we'll find out.

 

[RunningRouleur]

WVA vs. MVDP with both in peak form in Flanders will be an absolute treat. Let's hope the Dutchman can outfox or overpower Jumbo.

 

[fox]

Tomorrow is his first race over the cobbles since his return from back issues; we're all assuming he'll be fine. However, we'll find out.

Not a lot of cobbles tomorrow. No climbs worth to mention (Berg Ten houte and Nokere have cobbles but they are really easy)

Mariaborrestraat is nasty but far from finish. Varent is easy and Doorn and heerlegem are too short.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/van-der-poel-i-could-prepare-the-way-i-wanted-for-tour-of-flanders/

"I think it's maybe been one of my best preparations. I could prepare myself the way I wanted to and not start racing immediately after the cyclo-cross season,"

"I feel pretty good with the preparation I did. It still has to pay off, of course, but I felt good already during the races I've done, so that proves it was a good preparation. It was a bit shorter than I would have liked, but I think it's been really good."

I know in Dutch he also said he's doing his best numbers, similar to his best years, and he feels really good.
Good signs for things to come.

 

[senna6541]

WVA is in much better shape than last year. If you see how he rode on the Pater in the E3 and the Kemmel in Gent Wevelgem, I don't really see him being dropped by MVDP. A sprint between the 2 of them is more likely, I believe.

And sprinting after a 270K tour of Flanders is not sprinting after a flat stage in the Tour de France. MVDP beat WVA 2 years ago and Asgreen beat MVDP last year. In both cases the "weaker" sprinter. So I wouldn't rule out Pogacar in a sprint either.

MVDP has owned WVA in 2 up and bunch sprint finishes throughout their careers in CX and Road. Not even close.

 

[tobydawq]

MVDP has owned WVA in 2 up and bunch sprint finishes throughout their careers in CX and Road. Not even close.

It was quite close in De Ronde, though...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

It was quite close in De Ronde, though...

nah those few centimeters were really 15 bike lengths, you just misjudged the camera angle

 

[jmdirt]

BEAST!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

That was a tough final to control. A lot of flat and 2 Ineos being there.

RVV is a different race and automatically the strongest survive, which I think is better for him. Finales like this one today are difficult to win, but he made the right decisions in the end.

Also, apart from opening the race with 90+km to go he was kinda calm in most moves. Just reacting not doing everything himself.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

That was a tough final to control. A lot of flat and 2 Ineos being there.

RVV is a different race and automatically the strongest survive, which I think is better for him. Finales like this one today are difficult to win, but he made the right decisions in the end.

Also, apart from opening the race with 90+km to go he was kinda calm in most moves. Just reacting not doing everything himself.

He basically had nothing to control because all the slow guys kept chasing each other and closing all the gaps. Silver platter.

 

[tobydawq]

He basically had nothing to control because all the slow guys kept chasing each other and closing all the gaps. Silver platter.

Are you serious?