Below Pogi and Vingegaard is Thunderdome!
But I would put Pogi above Vingegaard. He was at top level before the accident, so I would not lose confident in him because of that.
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Thanks!
But I would put Pogi above Vingegaard. He was at top level before the accident, so I would not lose confident in him because of that.
Lopez is there!!!!
Now we only need Quintana as well!
Quintana is at +175 on the punters site.
Nice list. And I think my odds would be roughly similar. But I'd put Pogacar around 40% ATM, though I would love for him to prove me wrong; I'd put a few points on Jorgenson; and I'd -perhaps foolishly given the bookie odds- list Evenepoel, Roglic, and a-fresh-off-a-MTB-WC Pidcock at a combined 1%. So maybe I'd bump up the Ineos GC boys to somewhere in the 15-25% range. And again, I'm not saying it's not a reach for Bernal podium. I was saying it was probably the Ineos GC goal at this point, and that, even if you want to go with your odds, a 1/8 shot is about twice as good as what most would the start of long-shot territory. But sure, FWIW, I would agree that just Bernal podiuming would probably land squarely in that range. Which is why I would think running a few horses would be the best bet for Ineos.
Here's the article about INEOS considering Bernal a domestique, BTW.
Would've send him to Switzerland rather. Less pressure, less spotlight, more favorable route.
Also to put 3 potential leaders into the same race just sounds weird.
A fun fact: Bernal is still in the list for best young rider! 
They're not in it to win it. Well, Bernal might be, in the sense that if he's close to actually winning anything, even a stage, he's always given it a proper go, but the odds of that are very slim. Surely they mostly want to see how they measure up against the best and use that knowledge to fine-tune their strategy for the Tour. If one of the trident can actually give Vingegaard some trouble then they might go for a podium in the more traditional Skineos fashion. On the other hand, if Egan or any of the other two are really far off the pace they might consider saving them for the Vuelta, particularly given the tough start to the Tour.
Also, I think the worst thing for Bernal right now might be podiuming Suisse. He'd have all the expectations on him but, no offense to Bardet, a post-giro Jay Vine or a still-recovering Ayuso, no real reality check as to his form going into the Tour.
Since when is Bernal such a mental weakling that you have to make elaborate plans to minimize the pressure? His problems are injuries, not mental. Podium on TdS wouldn't hurt him in the least, riding Dauphiné with whatever result either.
If he's going to TDF then Daupine gives time to rest and go to another training camp before the Tour. Whereas Suisse you can't do that, only 10 days break from racing.
If he's no doing le TDF and he targets la vuelta it shouldn't make too much difference, Daupine or le Suisse. The routes of both races are quite bad this year.
Aren’t Remco and Roglic doing Suisse? And there are two ITTs? Doesn’t sound any more winnable to me. I think Dauphine is the right choice as someone else mentioned to test the legs against other Tour contenders.
I don't think he needs a training camp dear friend. He is training in monaco. When he goes to colombia, he already does his training camps in altitude. He doesn't need a lot of time in altitude on teide or sierra nevada.
Well if it's not set in stone that Bernal actually goes to the Tour de France, but switches to the Vuelta a Espana if reality check shows he's not ready yet, then you're right of course!
Exactly. I think most fans over exaggerate things like building or losing confidence by winning/losing races. Yeah, pressure can be a factor when it’s constant, but these guys are pros, they’ve been racing bikes forever (well, except Roglic), intense competition is normative for them. And for Bernal, entering the Dauphine will be about getting better.
No, he isn't.A fun fact: Bernal is still in the list for best young rider!
That seems right. Was a bit surprised by the initial claim, he's 26 and the white jersey is generally for 25 and younger. But it varies wildly so while PCS is usually the best source, sometimes they get it wrong.
So neither Evenepoel nor Roglic is confirmed at Suisse AFAIK, and there's no way to know what form they'll be in even if they do go, but as you said the main idea would seem to be testing the legs against the Tour contenders and the bulk of them are going to Dauphine.
I guess my point was that as a bonus if he were to have 2019 legs and podiums the Dauphine then you're pretty confident he has a real shot at the Tour. Even if Vingegaard was off the boil for some reason you know you have fantastic legs if you can keep up with the likes of Mas, Carapaz and Hindley. With Suisse, it's more of a crapshoot, you might end up with extra expectations but no real insight into his form. But yeah, that's just a little frosting on the cake as to why go to the Dauphine instead of Suisse. I'm sure both Ineos and Bernal would love to see him podium Suisse in any case, it just makes more sense to send him to the Dauphine for a myriad of reasons.
Like that I also agree with IlMaestro, I think Ineos will do an Altitude camp with the Tour team, at least the mountain domestique and the GC guys. Again, in theory, Bernal is going, definitely to the Dauphine and likely the Tour if he even ends up going, as a nominal domestique with clearly a likely fairly free role, not as a bona fide leader. So it's probably also about having him do the same program as the rest of the guys.
Ok. Maybe Procyclingstats are wrong. I don't know:
Startlist for Critérium du Dauphiné 2023
Competing teams and riders for Critérium du Dauphiné 2023. Top competitors are Jonas Vingegaard, Ben O'Connor and Matteo Jorgenson.
www.procyclingstats.com
He‘s 26, I don‘t think it is possible.Ok. Maybe Procyclingstats are wrong. I don't know:
Startlist for Critérium du Dauphiné 2023
Competing teams and riders for Critérium du Dauphiné 2023. Top competitors are Jonas Vingegaard, Ben O'Connor and Matteo Jorgenson.
It doesn't vary at all. Subtract 25 from the current year, and you get the year where the oldest riders competing for the youth competition were born (1998 this year). At least for all major races. For some smaller races, it's 3 years younger.
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