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Ok, just about won the lottery today. He for sure would have had a hard time at the flat section against the group. Now a pretty good lead.
Pricey_sky
Moderator
- Jul 12, 2012
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Yeah it was everyone for themselves at that stage. Unless he completely blew up on the final climb he would’ve won anyway.Valv.Piti said:
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There is no lottery. He worked hard on the Iseran and built a significant gap and lets not forget hat he had Simon Yates with him as well who was interested in the stage win so I think that these two could've stayed away. I think that maybe Thomas would've attacked late and closed some of the gap, but not catched Bernal anymore.ppanther92 said:
- May 3, 2015
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I can see him having significant less gap (20-30s) at the start of the last climb. Chances are good that he would have hold that or increased it again. But of course the situation is good for him. That said, he is the strongest climber in the race and maybe he will show himself again tomorrow to set the record straight.
- May 20, 2016
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There are no asterisks. I mean it is a sport done outside and weather is always going to have an impact on the race (be it a wind, rain, heat, cold, landslides etc).Valv.Piti said:
- Sep 2, 2011
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De Plus was cooked, he would have lost a ton of time to Bernal in the flat part. And I'm not sure anybody else would have dared to chase hard considering Thomas was on their wheel.
Think Carapaz in Courmayeur, similar situation, we know what happened.
Perhaps someone (Kruijswijk?) gains some time on the last climb, but not one minute. Unless he cracks badly.
100% agree.Valv.Piti said:
De Plus was cooked, he would have lost a ton of time to Bernal in the flat part. And I'm not sure anybody else would have dared to chase hard considering Thomas was on their wheel.
Think Carapaz in Courmayeur, similar situation, we know what happened.
Perhaps someone (Kruijswijk?) gains some time on the last climb, but not one minute. Unless he cracks badly.
- Aug 3, 2015
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My take on it:
Bernal and Simon reaches the bottom with 1.30 to the big group
Kruisjwijk and Thomas especially have something left in the tank, but Bernal is superhuman and holds that gap to the top. Buchmann looses 30 sec to those two and 2 minutes to Bernal.
Alaf gets very close to the group in the bottom, but doesnt and loses around 1-1.30 on the climb to Bernal, 3 minutes in total.
Bernal and Simon reaches the bottom with 1.30 to the big group
Kruisjwijk and Thomas especially have something left in the tank, but Bernal is superhuman and holds that gap to the top. Buchmann looses 30 sec to those two and 2 minutes to Bernal.
Alaf gets very close to the group in the bottom, but doesnt and loses around 1-1.30 on the climb to Bernal, 3 minutes in total.
- May 3, 2015
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Thinking Alaf will crack a bit without them having to do too much. Then you just have to worry about Kruiswijk, but I dont know, he doesnt really have that top level to challenge Thomas I feel. He is more of a follower. Just dont hope we have a Ventoux scenario from 2009 after this debacle, would feel so wrong after such a relatively good Tour.Red Rick said:
- Aug 28, 2012
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If he wants a shot at polka dots maybe, but if the right break goes I doubt he or Ineos will care.Valv.Piti said:
- Jun 10, 2010
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But the flat section wouldn't have been a problem. It wouldn't have been Bernal against the group, it would have been Bernal and Yates (if Bernal was smart and traded the stage win for Yates's cooperation) against De Plus, who was in the break. Thomas wouldn't pull to bring back his teammate (even though he'd love to
), and Kruijswijk wouldn't pull personally as long as Thomas was there, IMO.
All in all, I doubt the early finish made Bernal lose a lot of time, though, except relative to Alaphilippe. This feeling that no one in particular was robbed is part of what makes the whole affair not too bad or unfair.
I think he would have got a larger gap at the foot of the last climb, with Kruijswijk and above all Thomas possibly taking part of that time back on the climb itself as Bernal would have been more tired.Bonimenier said:
But the flat section wouldn't have been a problem. It wouldn't have been Bernal against the group, it would have been Bernal and Yates (if Bernal was smart and traded the stage win for Yates's cooperation) against De Plus, who was in the break. Thomas wouldn't pull to bring back his teammate (even though he'd love to
), and Kruijswijk wouldn't pull personally as long as Thomas was there, IMO.All in all, I doubt the early finish made Bernal lose a lot of time, though, except relative to Alaphilippe. This feeling that no one in particular was robbed is part of what makes the whole affair not too bad or unfair.
- Apr 10, 2019
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The big question is if Yates would have trusted him, he could have dropped him on the final climb after getting some help on the flat. In the end it's anyones guess.hrotha said:I think he would have got a larger gap at the foot of the last climb, with Kruijswijk and above all Thomas possibly taking part of that time back on the climb itself as Bernal would have been more tired.Bonimenier said:
But the flat section wouldn't have been a problem. It wouldn't have been Bernal against the group, it would have been Bernal and Yates (if Bernal was smart and traded the stage win for Yates's cooperation) against De Plus, who was in the break. Thomas wouldn't pull to bring back his teammate (even though he'd love to
All in all, I doubt the early finish made Bernal lose a lot of time, though, except relative to Alaphilippe. This feeling that no one in particular was robbed is part of what makes the whole affair not too bad or unfair.
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