Let's not forget that after he broke his collarbone last year he was ready to throw in the towel. It took Bruyneel to convince him not to. Now move to this year, based on the tone of his media statements regarding the Tour and Contador, the obvious bulge that he appears be trying to hind behind a tabletop, his arms, folded legs and his bent over over positon, I would say that at his age he's finding that it's not as easy to whip himself into shape like it was back in his glamour years.
I recall my late 30's was when my metabolism slowed down and all the wonderful culinary delights that I used to enjoying consuming without a worry of gaining much weight were all of a sudden sticking to me and leaving areas of fat where before there never wasn't any. Armstrong has too many plates spinning at the same time to devote the necessary time to reach the level of fitness it would take to be where he wants to be and look the way he likely wants to look.
That last photo was quite shocking to me. The first one I suspected that there was a little bulge around his waist and his legs seemed much thicker than they were at the Tour but I attributed it partially to the maybe abdominal breathing (?) and and the shadows on his legs. The last photo just can't be argued. He looks like me in my club kit and that's not good!