The Olympic Road Race 2016. Rio de Janeiro. 253km

[Cannibal72]

Froome won't be remotely in contention. He will categorically not win.

An interesting dark horse is Poland. If Kwiatkowski turns up in his absolute top form, I reckon he can win this, but he's not been any good since Flanders. Majka could get into a dangerous break.

Any word on the cobbles?

 

[Brullnux]

Nibali continues the tradition started on Stage 13 of the Giro and outsprints Valverde

No clue though. I'd like Nibali to win as it would also be a sort of sign of respect to the Olympics: the rider who has prepared his whole season for this wins. If not Bardet, Wellens, A. Yates (for my CQ team) or just any winner in an exciting race with many attacks.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Froome won't be remotely in contention. He will categorically not win.

An interesting dark horse is Poland. If Kwiatkowski turns up in his absolute top form, I reckon he can win this, but he's not been any good since Flanders. Majka could get into a dangerous break.

Any word on the cobbles?

Never underestimate Froome. I don't think he can win as he doesn't have the classics nous but you never know. He is always surprising us. Kwiat will have to be in form out of nowhere because he was in bad climbing form in Poland.

Oh the cobbles? Gone

 

[Valv.Piti]

Balaverde is the clear cut favourite. Nibali the second most favoured rider with a bunch of outsiders!

I think (and hope!) that Valverde will win. Would do him well to get an Olympic gold after all the misses in the WC. But above all, in the wake of TdF, I hope for a good race. Columbia have 5 very evenly matched riders, neither are favourites, but all have an outside shot. Hoping they will light it up.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Balaverde is the clear cut favourite. Nibali the second most favoured rider with a bunch of outsiders!

I think (and hope!) that Valverde will win. Would do him well to get an Olympic gold after all the misses in the WC. But above all, in the wake of TdF, I hope for a good race. Columbia have 5 very evenly matched riders, neither are favourites, but all have an outside shot. Hoping they will light it up.

Why Nibali is a bigger favorite then the likes of Dan Martin, Purito, Alpahilippe, Costa.... ?

A lof of those riders above have won more monuments/big one day races. Especially guys like Martin, Purito and Alaphilippe are not outsiders. They are big candidates to win the race too.

Valverde is the favourite, but surely not the clear cut. I still think he will miss some freshness. I don't even think he's the clear leader in his own team, in terms of current power and shape.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Balaverde is the clear cut favourite. Nibali the second most favoured rider with a bunch of outsiders!

I think (and hope!) that Valverde will win. Would do him well to get an Olympic gold after all the misses in the WC. But above all, in the wake of TdF, I hope for a good race. Columbia have 5 very evenly matched riders, neither are favourites, but all have an outside shot. Hoping they will light it up.

Why Nibali is a bigger favorite then the likes of Dan Martin, Purito, Alpahilippe, Costa.... ?

A lof of those riders above have won more monuments/big one day races. Especially guys like Martin, Purito and Alaphilippe are not outsiders. They are big candidates to win the race too.

Valverde is the favourite, but surely not the clear cut. I still think he will miss some freshness. I don't even think he's the clear leader in his own team, in terms of current power and shape.

You don't want to mess with a peak Nibali who have prepared all year for this race. Its akin to Lombardia, he will be a beast.

And yes, Valverde is obviously number 1 in Spain. They even selected 3 Movi's to serve him. Purito has a free role. He might climb marginally better, who knows, but Valverde is a better descender and has way more power in a flat sprint.

 

[Cannibal72]

Re: Re:

Froome won't be remotely in contention. He will categorically not win.

An interesting dark horse is Poland. If Kwiatkowski turns up in his absolute top form, I reckon he can win this, but he's not been any good since Flanders. Majka could get into a dangerous break.

Any word on the cobbles?

Never underestimate Froome. I don't think he can win as he doesn't have the classics nous but you never know. He is always surprising us. Kwiat will have to be in form out of nowhere because he was in bad climbing form in Poland.

Oh the cobbles? Gone

Agreed on Kwiat, which is a shame, but if he's anything he's unpredictable.

Balaverde is the clear cut favourite. Nibali the second most favoured rider with a bunch of outsiders!

I think (and hope!) that Valverde will win. Would do him well to get an Olympic gold after all the misses in the WC. But above all, in the wake of TdF, I hope for a good race. Columbia have 5 very evenly matched riders, neither are favourites, but all have an outside shot. Hoping they will light it up.

Why Nibali is a bigger favorite then the likes of Dan Martin, Purito, Alpahilippe, Costa.... ?

A lof of those riders above have won more monuments/big one day races. Especially guys like Martin, Purito and Alaphilippe are not outsiders. They are big candidates to win the race too.

Valverde is the favourite, but surely not the clear cut. I still think he will miss some freshness. I don't even think he's the clear leader in his own team, in terms of current power and shape.

Dan Martin's only teammate is Nico Roche. Purito is 36, doesn't have a team working for him, and seems somewhat disadvantaged by the technical descent (compared to Nibali). Costa doesn't seem able to win at all. Alaphilippe has never won a monument and his primary characteristic is his uphill sprint, which isn't going to happen. It's really not that far-fetched to put Nibali above them as favourite.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Balaverde is the clear cut favourite. Nibali the second most favoured rider with a bunch of outsiders!

I think (and hope!) that Valverde will win. Would do him well to get an Olympic gold after all the misses in the WC. But above all, in the wake of TdF, I hope for a good race. Columbia have 5 very evenly matched riders, neither are favourites, but all have an outside shot. Hoping they will light it up.

Why Nibali is a bigger favorite then the likes of Dan Martin, Purito, Alpahilippe, Costa.... ?

A lof of those riders above have won more monuments/big one day races. Especially guys like Martin, Purito and Alaphilippe are not outsiders. They are big candidates to win the race too.

Valverde is the favourite, but surely not the clear cut. I still think he will miss some freshness. I don't even think he's the clear leader in his own team, in terms of current power and shape.

You don't want to mess with a peak Nibali who have prepared all year for this race. Its akin to Lombardia, he will be a beast.

And yes, Valverde is obviously number 1 in Spain. They even selected 3 Movi's to serve him. Purito has a free role. He might climb marginally better, who knows, but Valverde is a better descender and has way more power in a flat sprint.

Actually he wasn't that impressive in Lombardia. He only won it due to a incredible descent of the Civiglio. But he couldn't drop Chaves, Valverde and Moreno uphill. He even did lose quite some time on the latter one on the last climb. And of his two biggest competitors in terms of talent and power, Purito and Valverde, the first one was injured and the second one clearly wasn't on his best level anymore after a hard season.

He was good that race, but Tour 2015 level. He needs better legs to win in Río, that's for sure.

And of course Valverde is the team leader. But that's something different then being the big favorite. If a really strong Froome is able to ride an inferior pace on the climbs, it's way more important to have good climbing legs and the right amount of freshness, then a good sprint.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Froome won't be remotely in contention. He will categorically not win.

An interesting dark horse is Poland. If Kwiatkowski turns up in his absolute top form, I reckon he can win this, but he's not been any good since Flanders. Majka could get into a dangerous break.

Any word on the cobbles?

Never underestimate Froome. I don't think he can win as he doesn't have the classics nous but you never know. He is always surprising us. Kwiat will have to be in form out of nowhere because he was in bad climbing form in Poland.

Oh the cobbles? Gone

Agreed on Kwiat, which is a shame, but if he's anything he's unpredictable.

Balaverde is the clear cut favourite. Nibali the second most favoured rider with a bunch of outsiders!

I think (and hope!) that Valverde will win. Would do him well to get an Olympic gold after all the misses in the WC. But above all, in the wake of TdF, I hope for a good race. Columbia have 5 very evenly matched riders, neither are favourites, but all have an outside shot. Hoping they will light it up.

Why Nibali is a bigger favorite then the likes of Dan Martin, Purito, Alpahilippe, Costa.... ?

A lof of those riders above have won more monuments/big one day races. Especially guys like Martin, Purito and Alaphilippe are not outsiders. They are big candidates to win the race too.

Valverde is the favourite, but surely not the clear cut. I still think he will miss some freshness. I don't even think he's the clear leader in his own team, in terms of current power and shape.

Dan Martin's only teammate is Nico Roche. Purito is 36, doesn't have a team working for him, and seems somewhat disadvantaged by the technical descent (compared to Nibali). Costa doesn't seem able to win at all. Alaphilippe has never won a monument and his primary characteristic is his uphill sprint, which isn't going to happen. It's really not that far-fetched to put Nibali above them as favourite.

If Purito is able to improve his shape he showed in the Alps, Nibali will not drop him uphill (maybe it's the opposite). Then, Nibs can try in the descent, but a fully motivated Purito is a good descender too. And in the sprint, Purito is faster.

So the only reason Nibali can be scaled above Purito, is the lack of support for the latter. But other then that: not really.

I put Nibali and Purito on the same level. And why not Martin? Because the biggest countries only can rely on 5 riders, the amount of support will be less important imo.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Balaverde is the clear cut favourite. Nibali the second most favoured rider with a bunch of outsiders!

I think (and hope!) that Valverde will win. Would do him well to get an Olympic gold after all the misses in the WC. But above all, in the wake of TdF, I hope for a good race. Columbia have 5 very evenly matched riders, neither are favourites, but all have an outside shot. Hoping they will light it up.

Why Nibali is a bigger favorite then the likes of Dan Martin, Purito, Alpahilippe, Costa.... ?

A lof of those riders above have won more monuments/big one day races. Especially guys like Martin, Purito and Alaphilippe are not outsiders. They are big candidates to win the race too.

Valverde is the favourite, but surely not the clear cut. I still think he will miss some freshness. I don't even think he's the clear leader in his own team, in terms of current power and shape.

Purito has even less chance in this race than he does in the ardennes, which consist of a bunch of short and STEEP climbs. This is a long hard 5.7% grind repeated multiple times, suiting guys like Nibali Froome and Porte instead of Martin and Purito.

That said the descent isn't all that technical, and is similar to the descent from the Peyresourde in that it's a power descent. So the descent will also come down to who has the most left after the climbs, not who is the best descender as such

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Purito to go out with a big bang by beating Nibbles in a sprint a-deux. Alaphilippe to get the bronze.

That would probably make me happier than a dutch rider winning. I guess I really wish Purito a lot

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Balaverde is the clear cut favourite. Nibali the second most favoured rider with a bunch of outsiders!

I think (and hope!) that Valverde will win. Would do him well to get an Olympic gold after all the misses in the WC. But above all, in the wake of TdF, I hope for a good race. Columbia have 5 very evenly matched riders, neither are favourites, but all have an outside shot. Hoping they will light it up.

Why Nibali is a bigger favorite then the likes of Dan Martin, Purito, Alpahilippe, Costa.... ?

A lof of those riders above have won more monuments/big one day races. Especially guys like Martin, Purito and Alaphilippe are not outsiders. They are big candidates to win the race too.

Valverde is the favourite, but surely not the clear cut. I still think he will miss some freshness. I don't even think he's the clear leader in his own team, in terms of current power and shape.

Purito has even less chance in this race than he does in the ardennes, which consist of a bunch of short and STEEP climbs. This is a long hard 5.7% grind repeated multiple times, suiting guys like Nibali Froome and Porte instead of Martin and Purito.

You mean the guy who reached the Tour podium in 2013 by riding almost the whole climb of Semnoz (10 km at 8.5%) at a really hard pace, dropping Contador by more then 2 minutes.

You really don't believe that nonsense, do you?

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

You mean the guy who reached the Tour podium in 2013 by riding almost the whole climb of Semnoz (10 km at 8.5%) at a really hard pace, dropping Contador by more then 2 minutes.

You really don't believe that nonsense, do you?

We're in 2016 now

Purito can definitely handle long climbs as well but the short steep stuff is what suits him best, and this is not that.

 

[Arredondo]

Why people are always comparing Martin to Purito? Martin isn't, and never will be, a pure climber.

Purito in his prime reached the level of Froome and Quintana in the mountains. He can do short, steep climbs AND long, hard ones both really well.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

You mean the guy who reached the Tour podium in 2013 by riding almost the whole climb of Semnoz (10 km at 8.5%) at a really hard pace, dropping Contador by more then 2 minutes.

You really don't believe that nonsense, do you?

We're in 2016 now

Purito can definitely handle long climbs as well but the short steep stuff is what suits him best, and this is not that.

It's not a question of handle. If he's in shape, he can put pressure on them as well. A guy like Dan Martin normally is only able to follow on a climb like that. But Purito can attack. Just like Nibali, Valverde, Froome, Porte and Bardet can do.

And the climb does have some steep pitches. It's not a regular 5.7% climb.

 

[Miburo]

Re:

Why people are always comparing Martin to Purito? Martin isn't, and never will be, a pure climber.

Purito in his prime reached the level of Froome and Quintana in the mountains. He can do short, steep climbs AND long, hard ones both really well.

Let's chill a bit, purito was a full 2 days on their level, that's it.

Only 2 days, i mean you really gonna act like purito is such an amazing climber cause he was 2 days better than froome? That's reaching a lot.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Why people are always comparing Martin to Purito? Martin isn't, and never will be, a pure climber.

Purito in his prime reached the level of Froome and Quintana in the mountains. He can do short, steep climbs AND long, hard ones both really well.

Let's chill a bit, purito was a full 2 days on their level, that's it.

Only 2 days, i mean you really gonna act like purito is such an amazing climber cause he was 2 days better than froome? That's reaching a lot.

He was also the best climber in the Vuelta 2012 and probably also Giro 2012, wasn't he? That means, in his prime, he was better than Contador for 2 straight years. Thats pretty good climbing.

 

[Cannibal72]

Re: Re:

Froome won't be remotely in contention. He will categorically not win.

An interesting dark horse is Poland. If Kwiatkowski turns up in his absolute top form, I reckon he can win this, but he's not been any good since Flanders. Majka could get into a dangerous break.

Any word on the cobbles?

Never underestimate Froome. I don't think he can win as he doesn't have the classics nous but you never know. He is always surprising us. Kwiat will have to be in form out of nowhere because he was in bad climbing form in Poland.

Oh the cobbles? Gone

Agreed on Kwiat, which is a shame, but if he's anything he's unpredictable.

Balaverde is the clear cut favourite. Nibali the second most favoured rider with a bunch of outsiders!

I think (and hope!) that Valverde will win. Would do him well to get an Olympic gold after all the misses in the WC. But above all, in the wake of TdF, I hope for a good race. Columbia have 5 very evenly matched riders, neither are favourites, but all have an outside shot. Hoping they will light it up.

Why Nibali is a bigger favorite then the likes of Dan Martin, Purito, Alpahilippe, Costa.... ?

A lof of those riders above have won more monuments/big one day races. Especially guys like Martin, Purito and Alaphilippe are not outsiders. They are big candidates to win the race too.

Valverde is the favourite, but surely not the clear cut. I still think he will miss some freshness. I don't even think he's the clear leader in his own team, in terms of current power and shape.

Dan Martin's only teammate is Nico Roche. Purito is 36, doesn't have a team working for him, and seems somewhat disadvantaged by the technical descent (compared to Nibali). Costa doesn't seem able to win at all. Alaphilippe has never won a monument and his primary characteristic is his uphill sprint, which isn't going to happen. It's really not that far-fetched to put Nibali above them as favourite.

If Purito is able to improve his shape he showed in the Alps, Nibali will not drop him uphill (maybe it's the opposite). Then, Nibs can try in the descent, but a fully motivated Purito is a good descender too. And in the sprint, Purito is faster.

So the only reason Nibali can be scaled above Purito, is the lack of support for the latter. But other then that: not really.

I put Nibali and Purito on the same level. And why not Martin? Because the biggest countries only can rely on 5 riders, the amount of support will be less important imo.

Yeah, I basically agree with that. I still rank Nibali a bit above the other two, but I think you're right about the team support thing.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Why people are always comparing Martin to Purito? Martin isn't, and never will be, a pure climber.

Purito in his prime reached the level of Froome and Quintana in the mountains. He can do short, steep climbs AND long, hard ones both really well.

Let's chill a bit, purito was a full 2 days on their level, that's it.

Only 2 days, i mean you really gonna act like purito is such an amazing climber cause he was 2 days better than froome? That's reaching a lot.

He showed it in more races. From 2012-early 2014, he was one of the best climbers in the world for sure.

 

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

Why people are always comparing Martin to Purito? Martin isn't, and never will be, a pure climber.

Purito in his prime reached the level of Froome and Quintana in the mountains. He can do short, steep climbs AND long, hard ones both really well.

Let's chill a bit, purito was a full 2 days on their level, that's it.

Only 2 days, i mean you really gonna act like purito is such an amazing climber cause he was 2 days better than froome? That's reaching a lot.

He was also the best climber in the Vuelta 2012 and probably also Giro 2012, wasn't he? That means, in his prime, he was better than Contador for 2 straight years. Thats pretty good climbing.

In that field of the giro? Eh didn't hesjedal outclimb him sometimes? I'm prob wrong, not gonna rewatch that garbage.

And the vuelta of 2012, yea he was the climber, against a contador that just came back.

And in the tour of 2013 Contador was just bad, not his normal level (and in some MTF he was still better than purito, he just blew himself up trying to follow froome). Surely as a quintana fan you can understand that sometimes a rider doesn't reach his level for maybe no real reason.

 

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

Why people are always comparing Martin to Purito? Martin isn't, and never will be, a pure climber.

Purito in his prime reached the level of Froome and Quintana in the mountains. He can do short, steep climbs AND long, hard ones both really well.

Let's chill a bit, purito was a full 2 days on their level, that's it.

Only 2 days, i mean you really gonna act like purito is such an amazing climber cause he was 2 days better than froome? That's reaching a lot.

He showed it in more races. From 2012-early 2014, he was one of the best climbers in the world for sure.

I mean you're right but for the most of his life, he wasn't. I take that into consideration to assess his overall climbing ability

 

[Ramon Koran]

Re: Re:

Why people are always comparing Martin to Purito? Martin isn't, and never will be, a pure climber.

Purito in his prime reached the level of Froome and Quintana in the mountains. He can do short, steep climbs AND long, hard ones both really well.

Let's chill a bit, purito was a full 2 days on their level, that's it.

Only 2 days, i mean you really gonna act like purito is such an amazing climber cause he was 2 days better than froome? That's reaching a lot.

He was also the best climber in the Vuelta 2012 and probably also Giro 2012, wasn't he? That means, in his prime, he was better than Contador for 2 straight years. Thats pretty good climbing.

In that field of the giro? Eh didn't hesjedal outclimb him sometimes? I'm prob wrong, not gonna rewatch that garbage.

And the vuelta of 2012, yea he was the climber, against a contador that just came back.

And in the tour of 2013 Contador was just bad, not his normal level (and in some MTF he was still better than purito, he just blew himself up trying to follow froome). Surely as a quintana fan you can understand that sometimes a rider doesn't reach his level for maybe no real reason.

Doesn't change the fact that over that period he was a better climber than Contador no matter the reasons.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Balaverde is the clear cut favourite. Nibali the second most favoured rider with a bunch of outsiders!

I think (and hope!) that Valverde will win. Would do him well to get an Olympic gold after all the misses in the WC. But above all, in the wake of TdF, I hope for a good race. Columbia have 5 very evenly matched riders, neither are favourites, but all have an outside shot. Hoping they will light it up.

Why Nibali is a bigger favorite then the likes of Dan Martin, Purito, Alpahilippe, Costa.... ?

A lof of those riders above have won more monuments/big one day races. Especially guys like Martin, Purito and Alaphilippe are not outsiders. They are big candidates to win the race too.

Valverde is the favourite, but surely not the clear cut. I still think he will miss some freshness. I don't even think he's the clear leader in his own team, in terms of current power and shape.

Purito has even less chance in this race than he does in the ardennes, which consist of a bunch of short and STEEP climbs. This is a long hard 5.7% grind repeated multiple times, suiting guys like Nibali Froome and Porte instead of Martin and Purito.

That said the descent isn't all that technical, and is similar to the descent from the Peyresourde in that it's a power descent. So the descent will also come down to who has the most left after the climbs, not who is the best descender as such

This is from the recon did in the beginning of the year by Nibali and Aru : “The route is hard even for a climber. The final circuit is really difficult and the descent is technical,” “There are sections where the tarmac is very broken up. “The course is harder than I could have expected. There’s nowhere to recover on the second circuit, the climb is very stiff.”

 

[Cance > TheRest]

I hope Valverde wins the Olympic Road race. I also think it is not that unlikely to happen.
If it is to be decided from a select group, I see no one who can get over the climbs and still have a chance to beat him in a sprint. Even Alaphillipe usually comes up short against Valverde, although a flat sprint could maybe give him the edge.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Why people are always comparing Martin to Purito? Martin isn't, and never will be, a pure climber.

Purito in his prime reached the level of Froome and Quintana in the mountains. He can do short, steep climbs AND long, hard ones both really well.

Let's chill a bit, purito was a full 2 days on their level, that's it.

Only 2 days, i mean you really gonna act like purito is such an amazing climber cause he was 2 days better than froome? That's reaching a lot.

He showed it in more races. From 2012-early 2014, he was one of the best climbers in the world for sure.

I mean you're right but for the most of his life, he wasn't. I take that into consideration to assess his overall climbing ability

It also depends on the role he had during most of his career. In 2008-2011 , he was more inconsisent, but showed on some ocasions the level of some of the best climbers in the world in those years (Tourmalet 2010, Angliru 2008, Firenze 2009, Sestriere 2011).