The Olympic Road Race 2016. Rio de Janeiro. 253km

[Anderis]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

Moreover it's not that unlikely a break can win this, since the race will be hard to control, and how many riders are there who will go into an early break and who are clearly better climbers than Cummings?

Considering the fact that everyone knows the race will be hard to control, I wouldn't be surprised if many of the strong teams will actually try to send climbers better than Cummings to an early break.

 

[May0maniac]

The Estonians could surprise people, both Rein and Tanel are really strong riders with big engines and they are flying under the radar right now, they could infiltrate the right breakaway/attack.

 

[carton]

Funny that the Dutch are more favored here than the tied-for-last-place Poles and Colombians combined, given how hilly the course is, and, particularly, that it finishes downhill. Gambler's fallacy? Eventually a dutchie is bound to rail a descent?

 

[Cannibal72]

Re:

Funny that the Dutch are more favored here than the tied-for-last-place Poles and Colombians combined, given how hilly the course is, and, particularly, that it finishes downhill. Gambler's fallacy? Eventually a dutchie is bound to rail a descent?

I imagine the remarkable strength of Poels all season motivated most of the Dutch voters. The issue with Poland and Colombia is, strangely enough, exactly the same; of the two riders who stand out as their potential leader, one had a good but not great Tour but is not especially well-suited to this course (Henao would prefer it to be punchier, Majka more mountainous) and another rider who could be perfect for this course but has shown tantalisingly little in the way of form (Kwiatkowski, Uran).

 

[Tonton]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

Alaphilippe, Valverde, Nibali in no particular order, but if I dare:
1. Nibali
2. Alaphilippe
3. Valverde

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

I imagine the remarkable strength of Poels all season motivated most of the Dutch voters. The issue with Poland and Colombia is, strangely enough, exactly the same; of the two riders who stand out as their potential leader, one had a good but not great Tour but is not especially well-suited to this course (Henao would prefer it to be punchier, Majka more mountainous) and another rider who could be perfect for this course but has shown tantalisingly little in the way of form (Kwiatkowski, Uran).

I kind-of get that. Poels has been great this season. But I just don't see him either dropping or outsprinting a fresh Martin, Alaphillipe or Valverde, particularly given the descent (though Poels can go downhills better than most of his countrymen).

In terms of possibilities, if the heat is brought early and often someone like Chaves could have the kick to go off or follow someone like Froome over the top and contest the sprint. Or if, on the other hand, it's a slow burn, the likes of Kwiato (who wasn't terrible in the early spring) can steal a regrouped bunch kick with a late attack. Poels is definitely a medal contender, but I can't see a clear scenario were he wins it outright except for the Liege scenario. But that's just so much less probable here given the firepower teams like Spain, Britain and Italy can counter a late break with. I actually think a Kruijswijk or Mollema win would be more likely, although a medal placing would be less likely.

In any case I find it admirable that the Dutch still keep their faith in the cycling gods and the descending chops of their riders.

 

[HelloDolly]

So who is the GB leader ? And surely best bet for the Dutch is Mollema ?

 

[Cannibal72]

Re: Re:

I imagine the remarkable strength of Poels all season motivated most of the Dutch voters. The issue with Poland and Colombia is, strangely enough, exactly the same; of the two riders who stand out as their potential leader, one had a good but not great Tour but is not especially well-suited to this course (Henao would prefer it to be punchier, Majka more mountainous) and another rider who could be perfect for this course but has shown tantalisingly little in the way of form (Kwiatkowski, Uran).

I kind-of get that. Poels has been great this season. But I just don't see him either dropping or outsprinting a fresh Martin, Alaphillipe or Valverde, particularly given the descent (though Poels can go downhills better than most of his countrymen).

In terms of possibilities, if the heat is brought early and often someone like Chaves could have the kick to go off or follow someone like Froome over the top and contest the sprint. Or if, on the other hand, it's a slow burn, the likes of Kwiato (who wasn't terrible in the early spring) can steal a regrouped bunch kick with a late attack. Poels is definitely a medal contender, but I can't see a clear scenario were he wins it outright except for the Liege scenario. But that's just so much less probable here given the firepower teams like Spain, Britain and Italy can counter a late break with. I actually think a Kruijswijk or Mollema win would be more likely, although a medal placing would be less likely.

In any case I find it admirable that the Dutch still keep their faith in the cycling gods and the descending chops of their riders.

I agree with you on Poels, because I can't really see a scenario where he soloes off the front and I think that's how this race will be won; if there's a sprint, it's hard to imagine that Valverde or Alaphilippe wouldn't still be there, especially with a technical descent for them. Poels should also be very heavily marked. Kwiat (who I'm a huge fan of) is my pick, aside from Nibali, for the win (mostly so he can keep his impressive record of having won the most prestigious races without ever getting a Monument). Chaves should definitely challenge.

 

[Jagartrott]

I think riders who are not used to riding classics have almost no chance here.
Froome won't be surrounded by a pack of black motors to guide him through the race. There will only be 5 riders max per team, and taking your own decisions will be very very important. I can actually see a decisive move happening already 100 km before the finish.

 

[Asero831]

Mollema looking good.
Dan Martin and Uran disappointing. Wonder how will Belgium approach this race.

Here are the names that are atleast 75% sure to be within 30 secs on the top of the final climb
Italy - Nibali
UK - Froome
Spain - Valverde, Rodriguez
Netherlands - Mollema, Poels
France - Bardet, Gallopin


50% sure to be within 30 secs on the top of the final climb
Italy - Aru
UK - Thomas or A. Yates
Netherlands - Kruijswijk
France - Alaphilippe,
Ireland - Martin, Roche
Colombia - Chavez, Pantano
Portugal - Costa
Australia - Porte

So there will be a stronger chase here and I do not think anyone can pull away in the descent like Mollema did today.

 

[HelloDolly]

Rememebr some riders will not have ridden San Seb flat out and will have kept soemthing for Rio

As for team GB ...I'd get behind Yates (which everyone is there )

 

[Asero831]

Re:

Rememebr some riders will not have ridden San Seb flat out and will have kept soemthing for Rio

As for team GB ...I'd get behind Yates (which everyone is there )

But I do not think a rider can gap other contenders by more than 30 seconds.
The final in today's race is around 2km climb with section of 25% yet more than a dozen are still within 30 seconds.

Rio route climbs are longer but the final 3kms are less steep. Not even double digit gradient.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

Rememebr some riders will not have ridden San Seb flat out and will have kept soemthing for Rio

As for team GB ...I'd get behind Yates (which everyone is there )

But I do not think a rider can gap other contenders by more than 30 seconds.
The final in today's race is around 2km climb with section of 25% yet more than a dozen are still within 30 seconds.

Rio route climbs are longer but the final 3kms are less steep. Not even double digit gradient.

we don't know how the race will be run yet...many will not wait for final climb

All I know that I would back a rider with some one day pedigree ...so not froome

 

[8472]

Re:

Mollema looking good.
Dan Martin and Uran disappointing. Wonder how will Belgium approach this race.

Here are the names that are atleast 75% sure to be within 30 secs on the top of the final climb
Italy - Nibali
UK - Froome
Spain - Valverde, Rodriguez
Netherlands - Mollema, Poels
France - Bardet, Gallopin


50% sure to be within 30 secs on the top of the final climb
Italy - Aru
UK - Thomas or A. Yates
Netherlands - Kruijswijk
France - Alaphilippe,
Ireland - Martin, Roche
Colombia - Chavez, Pantano
Portugal - Costa
Australia - Porte

So there will be a stronger chase here and I do not think anyone can pull away in the descent like Mollema did today.

Wasn't it Vuillermoz who replaced Pinot rather than Gallopin?

I'm sure Belgium will be going all in for the day's break because it's just a matter of time before they're dropped if they just follow wheels of the real climbers, a 50km+ solo from Wellens would be great.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Went in the course today. There will be some cobbles. They've covered about 1/3 of what it was, mainly a right-left turn that is wright after a sharp descent. It was covered to "protect" the paralympics... but they'll use it 4x... the TT it'll appear on the broadcast but i hope they show the peloton going through. It's incredibly beautiful!!
ps: paralympics will have problems at the end on the little hill after the cobbles. it's short but the last 300mts is very steep!!

 

[classicomano]

I wonder how #TeamDutchie will play this now as they have 2 clear Captains in Mollema and Poels, while Major Tom and his limp wrist will probably take a backseat and fetch bottles together with Lieutenant Steve. I just hope we'll see more unity than the inevitable abomination that is #TeamSpain.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Mollema looking good.
Dan Martin and Uran disappointing. Wonder how will Belgium approach this race.

Here are the names that are atleast 75% sure to be within 30 secs on the top of the final climb
Italy - Nibali
UK - Froome
Spain - Valverde, Rodriguez
Netherlands - Mollema, Poels
France - Bardet, Gallopin


50% sure to be within 30 secs on the top of the final climb
Italy - Aru
UK - Thomas or A. Yates
Netherlands - Kruijswijk
France - Alaphilippe,
Ireland - Martin, Roche
Colombia - Chavez, Pantano
Portugal - Costa
Australia - Porte

So there will be a stronger chase here and I do not think anyone can pull away in the descent like Mollema did today.

I don't think Froome is that likely to be close at the top. He has absolutely no results in one day races, and no accomplishments in hard races of this length. I think he'll be out of contention before they even hit the climb for the first time. Same for Porte and Kruijswijk. This is a race for the one day specialists.

 

[Asero831]

Froome had shown that he is explosive enough to tackle this kind of course
Also, one day race and WCRR can be raced extremely hard because they have 9 man teams. No country will want to burn more than two personnel in the first 100kms.

Thomas, Izaguirre and Kruijswijk job is to make the climbs hard with the hope that Martin, Roche, Alaphilippe, Rosa, Kwiatkowski, Majka, Wellens, GVA, Uran, Henao, Chavez, Albasini, Fuglsang, Porte will be out of contention going into the final climb.

But that's it, I do not see any other climbers that will help out Thomas, Izaguirre and Kruijwijk in setting a hard pace in early climbs.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

Also, one day race and WCRR can be raced extremely hard because they have 9 man teams. No country will want to burn more than two personnel in the first 100kms.

If three or four countries put strong men in the break, they will force others to ride faster.
The Belgian championships for instance were decided this year by a 200 km+ break with the likes of Wellens, Gilbert and GVA all present.

That's the difference with a GT stage: even some of the favourites may decide to go early. This race should be ridden hard - which suits the riders with classics experience.

 

[Rollthedice]

Purito vs. Bala will be fun to watch.

 

[wirral]

Froome in interviews is really only talking time trial. This is absolutely where his focus is. I would not be surprised if he DNF'ed the road race. He has very little chance in the road race and he is pretty much admitting this himself.

 

[slosada]

Re:

Froome had shown that he is explosive enough to tackle this kind of course
Also, one day race and WCRR can be raced extremely hard because they have 9 man teams. No country will want to burn more than two personnel in the first 100kms.

Thomas, Izaguirre and Kruijswijk job is to make the climbs hard with the hope that Martin, Roche, Alaphilippe, Rosa, Kwiatkowski, Majka, Wellens, GVA, Uran, Henao, Chavez, Albasini, Fuglsang, Porte will be out of contention going into the final climb.

But that's it, I do not see any other climbers that will help out Thomas, Izaguirre and Kruijwijk in setting a hard pace in early climbs.

In which planet would Thomas and Izaguirre drop Majka, Henao, Porte or Cháves in a climb?

 

[Bardamu]

Re:

I wonder how #TeamDutchie will play this now as they have 2 clear Captains in Mollema and Poels, while Major Tom and his limp wrist will probably take a backseat and fetch bottles together with Lieutenant Steve. I just hope we'll see more unity than the inevitable abomination that is #TeamSpain.

Hoping Tom will be in shape, he or Kruijswijk will be working for Mollema and Poels. Either by closing gaps or going in an early breakaway.

 

[Asero831]

Re: Re:

Froome had shown that he is explosive enough to tackle this kind of course
Also, one day race and WCRR can be raced extremely hard because they have 9 man teams. No country will want to burn more than two personnel in the first 100kms.

Thomas, Izaguirre and Kruijswijk job is to make the climbs hard with the hope that Martin, Roche, Alaphilippe, Rosa, Kwiatkowski, Majka, Wellens, GVA, Uran, Henao, Chavez, Albasini, Fuglsang, Porte will be out of contention going into the final climb.

But that's it, I do not see any other climbers that will help out Thomas, Izaguirre and Kruijwijk in setting a hard pace in early climbs.

In which planet would Thomas and Izaguirre drop Majka, Henao, Porte or Cháves in a climb?

We do not know the form of Majka, Porte and Henao after the Tour and Chaves will be peaking for the Vuelta.
It just takes a minute of extensive effort to make the race wide open. This is a one day race and explosiveness is a huge factor. For the same reason why I think France made a mistake dropping Gallopin.

 

[Asero831]

Re: Re:

I wonder how #TeamDutchie will play this now as they have 2 clear Captains in Mollema and Poels, while Major Tom and his limp wrist will probably take a backseat and fetch bottles together with Lieutenant Steve. I just hope we'll see more unity than the inevitable abomination that is #TeamSpain.

Hoping Tom will be in shape, he or Kruijswijk will be working for Mollema and Poels. Either by closing gaps or going in an early breakaway.

This will be tricky for Tom as he has his sights on the TT. So I do not expect him to be there in the final two climbs.

Stevie will have his moments but he is not yet on top form as evidenced by the showing yesterday. Question is who are the big names he will drop once my sets a high pace in the penultimate or final climb? The Dutch needs to eliminate fast men like Alaphilippe, Uran, Martin, Costa, Thomas, GVA, Albasini, etc to have a strong chance for a medal