The Olympic Road Race 2016. Rio de Janeiro. 253km

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

I think the descend won't determine the winner unless such rider is alone going to the finish line. I think it will be a reduced bunch sprint and that's why The odds are in favor of Valverde. There are also Uran, Costa and Martin.

I am rooting for Pantano if he can climb well with the rest but I am not sure that he will be able to do that.

The race will be too hectic to see a reduced bunch sprint, I believe.

No more than five riders together for the win. It's my call.

 

[vedrafjord]

I think it's good there's a bit of a flat run-in after the last climb, because if it finished at the bottom of the descent, lots of guys would be happy to wait til 1km to the top and then gun the descent. This way, a lot of teams have an incentive to make the race really hard much earlier and make sure the bigger guys are out of contention.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

I think it's good there's a bit of a flat run-in after the last climb, because if it finished at the bottom of the descent, lots of guys would be happy to wait til 1km to the top and then gun the descent. This way, a lot of teams have an incentive to make the race really hard much earlier and make sure the bigger guys are out of contention.

I don't really see this as most riders will not ruin their chances as they all want a medal

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

There are cobbled sections (Big rocks) in Rio road race with climbs...

1. Beglium is hottest favour.
2. Colombia - Uran is my pick also.
Then, there are
Great British - Geraint Thomas
Slovakia - Sagan

Sagan rides the MTB race.
Wasn't the route changed and there aren't any cobbles in the race anymore?

Only one corner was totally paved, on the rest of the cobbles there's only a really narrow paved section so that the riders will be able to avoid the cobbles in the ITT, even if the riders will avoid the cobbles the field will be forced to ride in a small line and we'll have a decent fight for positions before the cobbled section.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

And now for my 3rd elimination process

So that leaves for today the following gold medal candidates as-
Valverde, Purito, Nibali, Yates, Poels, Mollema, Badet, Henao, Rui Costa, D Martin

There are some possible scenarios - (all very scientific btw :lol: )

1) Which riders imo can make a difference acroos the whole final climb = Poels ,Nibali, Purito, Bardet
Of these which 3 can hold on best on down hill = Nibali , Bardet, Poels

2) Which riders can make a distance by sprinting at top of last the climb = Mollema Purito, Dan Martin, Poels, Bardet, Henao,Yates,Valverde

Of these which 3 can hold on best on down hill= Martin, Bardet ,Yates

3) which riders can make differnce on the down hill = Valverde , Nibali, Bardet

4) If a bunch of the above come to the finale together which riders can win a sprint = Valverde Dan Martin, Rui Costa

5) Which riders are best placed to make a break stick on second last climb = ,Nibali, Yates, Purito, Bardet, Martin,Mollema

So from the above the mentions per rider areas follows =
Mollema = 2
Poels = 3
Yates = 3
Costa = 1
Henao = 1
Bardet = 5
Martin = 5
Valverde = 3
Purito = 3
Nibali = 4


So qed my final 3 contenders for gold are
Nibali, Bardet & Martin

(don't blame me blame the science :geek: )

nice,it looks fun
Basically the best all-around has more chance
maybe to further implement that model one should insert the order in which long climb/descent/steep climb and sprint follows.
So those value would change during the race

I would still give a chance to Mollema in case he can hold his own with the best until the final centimeter

Of course if you look at it another way it could be Mollema ...and we all know how good Poels is and of course Uran has been training for an age and can descend and has pedigree

I guess I was doing my Sir Dave Brailsford apprach to controlling for variables in cycling ... one thing we don't know is how riders will be on the day, reaction to altitude, etc ...

But I am sticking to my 3 of Nibali, Bardet & Martin

 

[Jungle Cycle]

I think every 5/4 member team will put someone in a break way before the last climb, plus whoever is left of the long attack.. hoping for this someone include Nibali, Poels, Henao/Pantano, Alla, Izagirre, Thomas and why not Kleber "Bozó" Ramos, while the others leave everything to the last climb...
hoping medals go for an underdog; Roche, Wellens, Sepulveda, Kangert, Fuglsang..!?..
2 already went down in the technical descent today; Joon-yong(Korea) and either Kiryienka or Sivtsov..

 

[This Charming Man]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

A Spaniard or Italian, who rides for an Eastern bloc team, or an Eastern bloc rider.This is where the true talent lies

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I think it's good there's a bit of a flat run-in after the last climb, because if it finished at the bottom of the descent, lots of guys would be happy to wait til 1km to the top and then gun the descent. This way, a lot of teams have an incentive to make the race really hard much earlier and make sure the bigger guys are out of contention.

I think it could also be a very hard race but for different reasons. The bigger guys will be looking to create splits and put time into the climbers on the first 'classics style' part of the course. There are enough high quality classics specialists leading their teams to create some serious damage early in the race.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re: Re:

Only one corner was totally paved, on the rest of the cobbles there's only a really narrow paved section so that the riders will be able to avoid the cobbles in the ITT, even if the riders will avoid the cobbles the field will be forced to ride in a small line and we'll have a decent fight for positions before the cobbled section.

The paved section will be fenced off in the RR - will only be available for the TT.
This 'run in' with cobbles and short climbs is something that is apparently forgotten altogether here, with people mostly focusing on the long climbs later on. This race will be ridden hard be some teams from the beginning (e.g. Belgium) as they need to do that to have a shot.

Edit: great minds think alike DFA

 

[Ricco']

Re:

Anyone knows why Jungels wasn't considered? Much stronger than Fränk this year.

He didn't want to go, since he feeled that he didn't have the adequate preparation without doing the Tour and he thought going to Rio could disrupt his objectives for the later part of the year.

 

[Cannibal72]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

By the way, Colombia have withdrawn Uran and Henao from the TT to focus on the road race.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

I think it's good there's a bit of a flat run-in after the last climb, because if it finished at the bottom of the descent, lots of guys would be happy to wait til 1km to the top and then gun the descent. This way, a lot of teams have an incentive to make the race really hard much earlier and make sure the bigger guys are out of contention.

I think it could also be a very hard race but for different reasons. The bigger guys will be looking to create splits and put time into the climbers on the first 'classics style' part of the course. There are enough high quality classics specialists leading their teams to create some serious damage early in the race.

I really hope this happens ...of course it will knock my picks out of the park...well Bardet anyway but it will open the race up...and get rid of some climbers early on
I suppose Thomas, Stannard could do this put I expect they will be riding with/for Froome so won't leave him ...even though Thomas has abetter chance imo . I can see how Belguim & Swizerland & Germany can do this ...
Not sure who the Colombians would put in the beak ? Pantano /MAL I supose
British would put Cummings I suppose
The Spanish Izagirre /Ervitti ?
The Italian de Marchi
The Germans Geschke
Portugal Olivera
Swiss Albisini

I wonde what the possibility of the break staying away...especially if full of strong riders and no one to chase

 

[mavmav]

I think the relevancy of the "classics" part of the course gets blown out of proportion. While I don't want to take away anything from those classics riders, the notion that they will easily distance themselves from the climbers on short steep "Belgian" climbs and a few cobbles baffles me a bit. The last time we did some cobbles in the TdF Vanmarcke & Cancellara couldn't distance themselves from Froome and the other GC contenders. And GC contenders don't forget how to climb when it's 1,5km at 10%. It's not like GvA is better at that then Froome. It's more the other way around. GvA can compete for 1,5km and can't for 5km. Froome never did Huy and finished 2nd when the tour went there...

GT contenders generally don't ride spring classics. And while I'm not saying they would win them if they would, I'm fairly confident they would, apart from PR, content. And it's not like they have to ride carrefour de l'arbre and the Paterberg 5 times in that 1st loop.

I'm sure riders will try. And some may succeed to get in a leading group But the notion that we'll have bunch of who's who of spring classic greats distancing themselves from struggling top GT riders on some short climbs and a few cobble stones sounds like a pipe dream to me...

 

[Valv.Piti]

It may be a pipe dream, but I could realistically happen due to 5-man teams. Then again, you have Spain with 3 domestiques which only goal is to wheel the in before the final climbs. It definitely will be hard, but if many teams are in from the beginning, I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

GVA not better than Froome on cobbled climbs...
Thanks for putting a smile on my face.

 

[Tych23]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

I think there will be a bigger break with members of the stronger teams so they won't be chased hard enough giving us a surprise winner.

 

[rick james]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

By the way, Colombia have withdrawn Uran and Henao from the TT to focus on the road race.

are they allowed to do that?

 

[mavmav]

Re: Re:

GVA not better than Froome on cobbled climbs...
Thanks for putting a smile on my face.

Where did a I say that? Oh... wait... I didn't...

But if there's a Paterberg somewhere on this course please show me. I'd love to see it...

 

[Jonhard]

Given Froome’s seated climbing in the Tour MTT, he might even thrive on a cobbled climb. Who knows, we don’t see power climbers and mountain climbers compete very often.

I have no idea who’s going to win btw.

 

[eric_vv]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

By the way, Colombia have withdrawn Uran and Henao from the TT to focus on the road race.

are they allowed to do that?

You can always give back starting places.
More importantly, what's the point? The roadrace is first, why skip the TT 4 days later?

 

[toolittle]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

Cobbled stones are in last part of the race. It is quite different from the stones in the open kilometers.

If coast wind blow up, the race will be in the favour of powerhouse.

Hate that. The route looks too many hills for Fabian Cancellara. His way to end PR is too bad. I hope he could say goodbye in perfect way.

 

[Oliwright]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

I've thought long and hard about the Rio Road race.
It's possibly one of the most difficult races to predict, as the timing of the event is 1 week later than London and we know form can disappear in a week.

Here is how I ranked the possibilities of each of the favourites in my blog post which I wrote.

OSB Rider Ratings: (The more stars the better)

5 Star *****: Valverde, Alaphillipe, Martin

4 Star ****: Nibali, Bardet, Poels, Rodriguez, , Kwiatkowski

3 Star *** Froome, Chaves, Costa, Mollema

2 Star ** Wellens, Uran, Henao, Aru, Roche, Dumoulin, Impey, Yates

1 Star * Cummings, Clarke, Kiry, Pantano, Kruijswijk, Majka, Thomas


Team Ratings (I didn't cover every team only the major ones)

A*: Colombia, Netherlands, Spain.
A: France, Great Britain, Ireland, Italy, Poland.
B: Australia, Estonia, Portugal, South Africa.
C: Balarus, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Demark, Luxembourg, Solvenia.
D: Belgium, Norway, Switzerland.
E: Canada, Germany, United States.

Do you agree or disagree?

 

[Felice Gimondi]

Can anyone confirm that the road race has been shortened to 190km? According to a Norwegian cycling website the route in the first rounds is shortened to only 2 rounds instead of 4 as well as the start is moved closer.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

Can anyone confirm that the road race has been shortened to 190km? According to a Norwegian cycling website the route in the first rounds is shortened to only 2 rounds instead of 4 as well as the start is moved closer.

*heart attack*

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

Can anyone confirm that the road race has been shortened to 190km? According to a Norwegian cycling website the route in the first rounds is shortened to only 2 rounds instead of 4 as well as the start is moved closer.

What ?? No way could they shorten it uness there was an issue with the roads

It has to be along hard race