The Olympic Road Race 2016. Rio de Janeiro. 253km

[HelloDolly]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

I've thought long and hard about the Rio Road race.
It's possibly one of the most difficult races to predict, as the timing of the event is 1 week later than London and we know form can disappear in a week.

Here is how I ranked the possibilities of each of the favourites in my blog post which I wrote.

OSB Rider Ratings: (The more stars the better)

5 Star *****: Valverde, Alaphillipe, Martin

4 Star ****: Nibali, Bardet, Poels, Rodriguez, , Kwiatkowski

3 Star *** Froome, Chaves, Costa, Mollema

2 Star ** Wellens, Uran, Henao, Aru, Roche, Dumoulin, Impey, Yates

1 Star * Cummings, Clarke, Kiry, Pantano, Kruijswijk, Majka, Thomas


Team Ratings (I didn't cover every team only the major ones)

A*: Colombia, Netherlands, Spain.
A: France, Great Britain, Ireland, Italy, Poland.
B: Australia, Estonia, Portugal, South Africa.
C: Balarus, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Demark, Luxembourg, Solvenia.
D: Belgium, Norway, Switzerland.
E: Canada, Germany, United States.

Do you agree or disagree?

As you say it almost impossible to predict and control ....a break could go away and no one chase till its too late and race could be over...Many riders wil be hoping Spain or Brits or Italians not in the break

I woul not give Allaphillipe 5 stars because the climbs are too hard imo
I would not give Kwait 4 stars unless he has had a great improvement in form or he has been going easy till this race (could be posible) but then again his climbing has not been top this year ..maybe he will come good on the day but I don't see it
I would not put Chaves as the best Colombian...great climber alright and fast but will struggle in the non climbing sections without a minder imo...unless other Colombians riding for him ....I think Henao & Uran stronger
I don't think Dumoulin should ride this race ...he could have a fall and I don't see him wining ... He says he is in very good form but this is not a stage of the Vuelta

I'd put Yates and Uran ahead of Froome

 

[Valv.Piti]

Denmark ahead of Belgium? Belgium is much, much better than our sorry team.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I think the relevancy of the "classics" part of the course gets blown out of proportion. While I don't want to take away anything from those classics riders, the notion that they will easily distance themselves from the climbers on short steep "Belgian" climbs and a few cobbles baffles me a bit. The last time we did some cobbles in the TdF Vanmarcke & Cancellara couldn't distance themselves from Froome and the other GC contenders. And GC contenders don't forget how to climb when it's 1,5km at 10%. It's not like GvA is better at that then Froome. It's more the other way around. GvA can compete for 1,5km and can't for 5km. Froome never did Huy and finished 2nd when the tour went there...

GT contenders generally don't ride spring classics. And while I'm not saying they would win them if they would, I'm fairly confident they would, apart from PR, content. And it's not like they have to ride carrefour de l'arbre and the Paterberg 5 times in that 1st loop.

I'm sure riders will try. And some may succeed to get in a leading group But the notion that we'll have bunch of who's who of spring classic greats distancing themselves from struggling top GT riders on some short climbs and a few cobble stones sounds like a pipe dream to me...

I think you are spot on.

Some of these GT contenders that don't target the classics can actually win it here. I think some of them have the capabilities to do it if fully committed.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

Denmark ahead of Belgium? Belgium is much, much better than our sorry team.

Are you from Denmark ??...why have you got a picture of Quintana ??

Anyway Valgren best Danish rider not there ?? Suppose Fuglsang will do an attack at some point

 

[HelloDolly]

I think you are spot on.

Some of these GT contenders that don't target the classics can actually win it here. I think some of them have the capabilities to do it if fully committed.

Maybe but the GC rider who do taget the classics are even better suited ..they are used to riding in open, attacking, over all terraine races ..

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I think you are spot on.

Some of these GT contenders that don't target the classics can actually win it here. I think some of them have the capabilities to do it if fully committed.

Maybe but the GC rider who do taget the classics are even better suited ..they are used to riding in open, attacking, over all terraine races ..

Of course. Like Valverde.

 

[Felice Gimondi]

Re: Re:

Can anyone confirm that the road race has been shortened to 190km? According to a Norwegian cycling website the route in the first rounds is shortened to only 2 rounds instead of 4 as well as the start is moved closer.

What ?? No way could they shorten it uness there was an issue with the roads

It has to be along hard race

Agreed, I can't find a confirmation anywhere so I guess National coach Stig Kristiansen must be misinformed when he spoke to procycling.no.

 

[PhiLiz]

How butthurt will the forum be after Costa wins the whole thing?

 

[Oliwright]

Re:

How butthurt will the forum be after Costa wins the whole thing?

very

 

[Arredondo]

In what world Bardet is a bigger candidate then Mollema, Froome and Costa?

 

[Oliwright]

Re:

In what world Bardet is a bigger candidate then Mollema, Froome and Costa?

He can climb and descend better than him.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Denmark ahead of Belgium? Belgium is much, much better than our sorry team.

Are you from Denmark ??...why have you got a picture of Quintana ??

Anyway Valgren best Danish rider not there ?? Suppose Fuglsang will do an attack at some point

Yeah, I am able to support riders who not necessarily come from my country....

C.A Sørensen is selected instead of Valgren. Enough said.

 

[Cannibal72]

Re: Re:

How butthurt will the forum be after Costa wins the whole thing?

very

Mostly because he'll lose his impressive lead in the Most Top 10s Without A Win race.

 

[HelloDolly]

https://twitter.com/BaukeMollema/status/760956310921830401


So Bauke assessment of the course makes me hold on even firmer to Nibali, Martin & Bardet

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Re: Re:

Can anyone confirm that the road race has been shortened to 190km? According to a Norwegian cycling website the route in the first rounds is shortened to only 2 rounds instead of 4 as well as the start is moved closer.

What ?? No way could they shorten it uness there was an issue with the roads

It has to be along hard race

Agreed, I can't find a confirmation anywhere so I guess National coach Stig Kristiansen must be misinformed when he spoke to procycling.no.

This isnt true. At least this info doesnt exist with the organizers...
forecast still calls for a cloudy 25c day with not too much wind...

 

[Pantani_lives]

This is the profile according to http://www.cyclingstage.com/olympics-2016/route-road-race-rio-2016/ and http://velonews.competitor.com/2016/08/news/who-will-win-the-rio-olympics-road-races_416400.

According to this profile the top of the final climb is 17K before the finish and the total distance is 241K.

According to http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/2016-olympic-games/olympic-mens-road-race/ it's 256.4K.

According to the profile in this thread it's 253K.

Now which is it?

 

[doperhopper]

1. Select group comes to the last climb.
2. Washing machine Vroooom attack.
3. Even 30 seconds after the downhill can be enough for excellent TTer as the race behind will be completely mad (it's not only about the win, there are two more medals) and if the group of chasers contains Valverde, any escapee has guaranteed gold.

 

[TMP402]

Re:

This is the profile according to http://www.cyclingstage.com/olympics-2016/route-road-race-rio-2016/ and http://velonews.competitor.com/2016/08/news/who-will-win-the-rio-olympics-road-races_416400.

According to this profile the top of the final climb is 17K before the finish and the total distance is 241K.

According to http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/2016-olympic-games/olympic-mens-road-race/ it's 256.4K.

According to the profile in this thread it's 253K.

Now which is it?

Maybe 253/256 includes the neutral zone?

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Re: Re:

This is the profile according to http://www.cyclingstage.com/olympics-2016/route-road-race-rio-2016/ and http://velonews.competitor.com/2016/08/news/who-will-win-the-rio-olympics-road-races_416400.

According to this profile the top of the final climb is 17K before the finish and the total distance is 241K.

According to http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/2016-olympic-games/olympic-mens-road-race/ it's 256.4K.

According to the profile in this thread it's 253K.

Now which is it?

Maybe 253/256 includes the neutral zone?

correct is 241,5km.. first(untill last year) was 253 but uci shortened it in order no to go through tunnels near the end...

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Caruso+Nibali really cranking against the wind....
https://www.instagram.com/p/BIn0jEQD8FG/
would that be a rehearse??

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

correct is 241,5km.. first(untill last year) was 253 but uci shortened it in order no to go through tunnels near the end...

Thanks, I like it better like this. 17K after the climb is feasible for a strong soloist, but it also gives others the chance to come back. It will probably the best tactician among the better climbers.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Valverde might be the favourite, but I just can't see him winning. He may be the strongest, but how often does Valverde convert that into wins? I think he'd be more than happy with a medal that is silver or bronze.

If there are one or two escapees up the road over the top of the final climb, the chasing group still has a medal to fight for, and an olympic medal isn't like a podium in any other race, so a lot of chasers would probably be more than happy to save themselves for a sprint for bronze. Which is why this race will most likely be won uphill and not downhill.

 

[Cannibal72]

Re: Re:

I think the relevancy of the "classics" part of the course gets blown out of proportion. While I don't want to take away anything from those classics riders, the notion that they will easily distance themselves from the climbers on short steep "Belgian" climbs and a few cobbles baffles me a bit. The last time we did some cobbles in the TdF Vanmarcke & Cancellara couldn't distance themselves from Froome and the other GC contenders. And GC contenders don't forget how to climb when it's 1,5km at 10%. It's not like GvA is better at that then Froome. It's more the other way around. GvA can compete for 1,5km and can't for 5km. Froome never did Huy and finished 2nd when the tour went there...

GT contenders generally don't ride spring classics. And while I'm not saying they would win them if they would, I'm fairly confident they would, apart from PR, content. And it's not like they have to ride carrefour de l'arbre and the Paterberg 5 times in that 1st loop.

I'm sure riders will try. And some may succeed to get in a leading group But the notion that we'll have bunch of who's who of spring classic greats distancing themselves from struggling top GT riders on some short climbs and a few cobble stones sounds like a pipe dream to me...

I think you are spot on.

Some of these GT contenders that don't target the classics can actually win it here. I think some of them have the capabilities to do it if fully committed.

I don't completely agree with this. On the one hand, the cobbles are definitely not going to be as impactful as some people say. They're early in the race, they're hardly the Carrefour as you say, and cobbles not in Flanders always tend to have less relevance to the race than expected (didn't Lombardia include a cobbled climb a few years back?) GVA is not going to win this. But while the classics part of the course has been over-egged, the classics aspect hasn't. This is a one-day race. I'm pretty sure it will be won by a one-day racer, not by a GT racer who doesn't target the classics, because they have completely different capabilities. The winner here will need tactical experience of one-day races, and a lot of it. I very much doubt that this will be won by Froome or Porte, riders with zero experience of being at the sharp end of a one-day race; the top GT riders aren't going to be distanced on the cobbles, but they aren't going to claim the win either. On GT riders doing classics: some do. And, as a general rule, they're not very good at it. Riders who aren't specialists don't tend to win that much (e.g. Edvald Boasson Hagen, a rider who could be a key domestique on mountain stages and in the lead group of Roubaix, but hasn't actually won a great deal). Geraint Thomas is a perfect example in reverse; excellent classics rider, and on the evidence of the last 6 weeks or so, a pretty mediocre GT rider. Or Rui Costa.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Official profile, apparently.

 

[Asero831]

How long is the final descent?

30 second advantage may be hard to close if there are no teammates left in the chase