The Olympic Road Race 2016. Rio de Janeiro. 253km

[Rollthedice]

Re:

How long is the final descent?

30 second advantage may be hard to close if there are no teammates left in the chase

6 Km technical and fast.

 

[Asero831]

Re: Re:

How long is the final descent?

30 second advantage may be hard to close if there are no teammates left in the chase

6 Km technical and fast.

so 6km descent and 17km flat?

So that's around 25 minutes of TT.

 

[Keram]

Re:

Official profile, apparently.

I start to think that course would be better in reverse mode. This is hard for any classic specialist besides of Valverde likes. I think even Gilbert in his 2011 god mode would struggle to win this. GVA or Stybar or Vakoc have no chance. Even for Alaphillipe could be too much. But it should be a fun race with 5 men teams. Early breakaway can win this.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Valverde might be the favourite, but I just can't see him winning. He may be the strongest, but how often does Valverde convert that into wins? I think he'd be more than happy with a medal that is silver or bronze.

What do you mean? Here are the top 10 favorites according to the bookmakers ranked from most to fewest wins in the last 5 seasons (I excluded Alaphilippe because of his young age and included Mollema instead as he's the 11th biggest favorite):

1. Valverde: 37 wins
2. Froome: 35 wins
3. Nibali: 27 wins
4. Rodriguez: 22 wins
5. Costa: 14 wins
6. Poels: 10 wins
7. Martin: 8 wins
8. Mollema: 6 wins
8. Uran: 6 wins
10. Bardet: 5 wins

 

[Valv.Piti]

I think the assumption that Valverde can't win due to him messing up sometimes in the finales is due to just how many finales he finds himself in. If you aren't the strongest by a countrymile (like he was in L-B-L 2015). you will lose those at a decently high ratio. He's often the marked man, the Sagan-syndrome - at least until recently - to a lesser extent.

My favourite is Valverde and I obviously hope he wins, but I think Nibali will pull it off. Perfect prep and perfect route.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Valverde is probably most likely to podium, but I'd say Nibali is favourite to win if he's in form, which he should be

 

[SafeBet]

Nibali needs to solo in order to win. Not easy, but a late attack on the flat from a group of 3-4 riders could prove to be the decisive move.

I'd still pick Bala or Rui Costa over him.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Nibali needs to solo in order to win. Not easy, but a late attack on the flat from a group of 3-4 riders could prove to be the decisive move.

I'd still pick Bala or Rui Costa over him.

Attack on the last lap last part of Canoa, over 10%, blow the remaining group apart, 10 sec advantage then fast 1k descent another 5 sec, then climb Vista keep the gap or increase a few sec, then 6K mad descent, put another 10 sec in a disorganized chase group and start the flat part with 25-30 sec advantage. Should be enough for Nibali over a small group containing Valverde and looking at each other until it's too late.

 

[spiritualride]

10 second gap at the end of the descent should be enough, no? I really don't see the select group chasing down a lone attacker here.

Valverde will miss the winning move... He won't be able to rely on others to chase down attacks.

 

[Asero831]

Re:

10 second gap at the end of the descent should be enough, no? I really don't see the select group chasing down a lone attacker here.

Valverde will miss the winning move... He won't be able to rely on others to chase down attacks.

If there are not teammates left, 30 seconds should be enough but someone from this combination will trigger the chase

Thomas-Yates
Purito-Bala
Poels- Mollema
Uran-Henao

Porte and also help the chase if Froomey is still there. And we are not sure if Bardet will still have teammates.

 

[Googolplex]

Re: Re:

so 6km descent and 17km flat?

So that's around 25 minutes of TT.

12,2 km flat.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Re: Re:

How long is the final descent?

30 second advantage may be hard to close if there are no teammates left in the chase

6 Km technical and fast.

so 6km descent and 17km flat?

So that's around 25 minutes of TT.

descent takes about 4min... the final 12km is very fast with only 2 90o turns...

 

[yaco]

Australia further embarrasses themselves in the selection of the 4th rider for the RR - Believe it or not, but they chose a competitor in the Mountain Bike race.

 

[Billie]

Are there team radios?

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Are there team radios?

When Vino won there where no radios, don't think it's different now.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Valverde might be the favourite, but I just can't see him winning. He may be the strongest, but how often does Valverde convert that into wins? I think he'd be more than happy with a medal that is silver or bronze.

If there are one or two escapees up the road over the top of the final climb, the chasing group still has a medal to fight for, and an olympic medal isn't like a podium in any other race, so a lot of chasers would probably be more than happy to save themselves for a sprint for bronze. Which is why this race will most likely be won uphill and not downhill.

This. I'm 99% sure Valverde won't win by doing a solo after an attack on the final climb or descent. And then it will be the old situation again, nobody wants to pull because Valverde is in the group and Valverde won't follow attacks because he has a horrible racing instinct. Valverde is at his best when pure strength counts (like FW or the final ascent in LBL) but he has won hardly any classics by doing a solo.

 

[Arredondo]

Perfect situation for Purito. His biggest rival and jammer is in the same team, and will be heavily marked.

If he's part of a perfect breakaway in the final, Nibali and Costa will be there too. He can beat both of them in the sprint. Not easy, but he can do it.

But most likely no Spaniard will win it. Or a clear favorite. Because this is going to be a crazy race

 

[Fernandez]

Valverde wont win for the same reason he uses to doesnt win: he is a bad tactician/agressiveless that always wait for the sprint and nobody wants to arrive with him at the sprint. Everybody will be watching at him. The only way for him is to have a team mate to pull the reduced group until the sprint and I dont known if Purito will/could do that job. Well, we have also the possibility of having Purito at the front in the last kms and Valverde could suck wheels. But then, we are in the same situación than Firenze 3 years ago, and we know how this ended happening.

 

[Billie]

Which riders will be mercenaries? Always interesting

Wouldn't surprise me if Kiryienka does the pacemaking in the peloton for the first 150 kms. Also think the Kazakh and Ukrain riders from Astana will be helping out Aru/Nibali though that most likely will be in some attack.

 

[Fernandez]

Well, there is maybe something we didnt count yet for the spanish team: Izaguirre. I think the man is in great form as we saw in TdF, and if he is there at the end with the ultimate group, then the thing for Spain could go very nice.

 

[MacBAir]

Re:

Perfect situation for Purito. His biggest rival and jammer is in the same team, and will be heavily marked.

If he's part of a perfect breakaway in the final, Nibali and Costa will be there too. He can beat both of them in the sprint. Not easy, but he can do it.

But most likely no Spaniard will win it. Or a clear favorite. Because this is going to be a crazy race

A guy like Purito beating a crafty guy like Rui on a 1 Vs 1 sprint? No, ***, way. Never. Ever.

 

[BigMac]

Re:

Perfect situation for Purito. His biggest rival and jammer is in the same team, and will be heavily marked.

If he's part of a perfect breakaway in the final, Nibali and Costa will be there too. He can beat both of them in the sprint. Not easy, but he can do it.

But most likely no Spaniard will win it. Or a clear favorite. Because this is going to be a crazy race

Purito has the better chance if he attacks on the flat instead of waiting for the sprint. Costa won't chase because, well... and Nibali won't fall for it again after Firenze.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Valverde might be the favourite, but I just can't see him winning. He may be the strongest, but how often does Valverde convert that into wins? I think he'd be more than happy with a medal that is silver or bronze.

If there are one or two escapees up the road over the top of the final climb, the chasing group still has a medal to fight for, and an olympic medal isn't like a podium in any other race, so a lot of chasers would probably be more than happy to save themselves for a sprint for bronze. Which is why this race will most likely be won uphill and not downhill.

This. I'm 99% sure Valverde won't win by doing a solo after an attack on the final climb or descent. And then it will be the old situation again, nobody wants to pull because Valverde is in the group and Valverde won't follow attacks because he has a horrible racing instinct. Valverde is at his best when pure strength counts (like FW or the final ascent in LBL) but he has won hardly any classics by doing a solo.

Horrible racing instinct, isnt that a little tough? Its not easy being the marked man, especially not when you aren't feeling super, like San Sebastian this year. Just ask Sagan, he has also has been accused for horrible racing instinct, but I think its harder than it seems sitting in those finales, especially when you are perceived to be 'the man to beat'.

 

[saganboss]

Re: Re:

Valverde might be the favourite, but I just can't see him winning. He may be the strongest, but how often does Valverde convert that into wins? I think he'd be more than happy with a medal that is silver or bronze.

If there are one or two escapees up the road over the top of the final climb, the chasing group still has a medal to fight for, and an olympic medal isn't like a podium in any other race, so a lot of chasers would probably be more than happy to save themselves for a sprint for bronze. Which is why this race will most likely be won uphill and not downhill.

This. I'm 99% sure Valverde won't win by doing a solo after an attack on the final climb or descent. And then it will be the old situation again, nobody wants to pull because Valverde is in the group and Valverde won't follow attacks because he has a horrible racing instinct. Valverde is at his best when pure strength counts (like FW or the final ascent in LBL) but he has won hardly any classics by doing a solo.

Horrible racing instinct, isnt that a little tough? Its not easy being the marked man, especially not when you aren't feeling super, like San Sebastian this year. Just ask Sagan, he has also has been accused for horrible racing instinct, but I think its harder than it seems sitting in those finales, especially when you are perceived to be 'the man to beat'.

well, the most of the times valverde's only instinct is to follow wheels, so when someone attacks and he's not close it's usually done for him because nobody will work with him, a bit like matthews at the last 2 worlds. hoping that all the races come to a sprint isn't such a brilliant racing instinct to be honest
at least sagan sometimes attacks even though he could sit on the peloton

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Valverde might be the favourite, but I just can't see him winning. He may be the strongest, but how often does Valverde convert that into wins? I think he'd be more than happy with a medal that is silver or bronze.

If there are one or two escapees up the road over the top of the final climb, the chasing group still has a medal to fight for, and an olympic medal isn't like a podium in any other race, so a lot of chasers would probably be more than happy to save themselves for a sprint for bronze. Which is why this race will most likely be won uphill and not downhill.

This. I'm 99% sure Valverde won't win by doing a solo after an attack on the final climb or descent. And then it will be the old situation again, nobody wants to pull because Valverde is in the group and Valverde won't follow attacks because he has a horrible racing instinct. Valverde is at his best when pure strength counts (like FW or the final ascent in LBL) but he has won hardly any classics by doing a solo.

Horrible racing instinct, isnt that a little tough? Its not easy being the marked man, especially not when you aren't feeling super, like San Sebastian this year. Just ask Sagan, he has also has been accused for horrible racing instinct, but I think its harder than it seems sitting in those finales, especially when you are perceived to be 'the man to beat'.

The word horrible was probably a bit harsh but he definitely doesn't have a good instinct. And actually the same counts for Sagan. For example in the E3 he pulled Kwiat to the finish because he thought he would easily beat him in a sprint and lost. In races like Strade Bianche he also worked a lot in the break and was totally done when they started the final climb. Even in races he won like the WC I wouldn't really call his tactics clever.