The Olympic Road Race 2016. Rio de Janeiro. 253km

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Valverde might be the favourite, but I just can't see him winning. He may be the strongest, but how often does Valverde convert that into wins? I think he'd be more than happy with a medal that is silver or bronze.

If there are one or two escapees up the road over the top of the final climb, the chasing group still has a medal to fight for, and an olympic medal isn't like a podium in any other race, so a lot of chasers would probably be more than happy to save themselves for a sprint for bronze. Which is why this race will most likely be won uphill and not downhill.

This. I'm 99% sure Valverde won't win by doing a solo after an attack on the final climb or descent. And then it will be the old situation again, nobody wants to pull because Valverde is in the group and Valverde won't follow attacks because he has a horrible racing instinct. Valverde is at his best when pure strength counts (like FW or the final ascent in LBL) but he has won hardly any classics by doing a solo.

Horrible racing instinct, isnt that a little tough? Its not easy being the marked man, especially not when you aren't feeling super, like San Sebastian this year. Just ask Sagan, he has also has been accused for horrible racing instinct, but I think its harder than it seems sitting in those finales, especially when you are perceived to be 'the man to beat'.

well, the most of the times valverde's only instinct is to follow wheels, so when someone attacks and he's not close it's usually done for him because nobody will work with him, a bit like matthews at the last 2 worlds. hoping that all the races come to a sprint isn't such a brilliant racing instinct to be honest
at least sagan sometimes attacks even though he could sit on the peloton

Well his instict was ok in San Sebastian 2014 when he escaped on the decent, or in Liege 2015 when he measured his effort brilliantly. So when rider has the legs, his instincts are usually ok.

This year however, in San Sebastian he wasn't that strong so it looked like he messed up. He maybe did, but I'm closer to believe that he wasn't that strong.

In Lombardia 2014 for example, he followed Gilbert's attack uphill, Samu's attack downhill, and didn't follow Martin. Maybe he did it on purpose, but maybe he couldn't follow. The problem is when he's in the group at the end of the race, like then, literally nobody wants to react to any move, they all are looking at him. You can see that perfectly in that Lombardia. Gilbert for example is very fast rider, Valverde is faster but he could have a decent chance. Martin went past Gilbert, he saw him in time to react, but no he's letting him go and he watch Valverde. Valverde already responded couple of times so he lets too. This was maybe a gamble, a bad one. But then again, the man knows himself, you saw that in Liege 2015, he knew what he can do, he knew exactly how far can he let Moreno. Maybe he knew he has only one punch in his legs and if he responds to Martin, he's finished. We don't know...

Bottom line is, he proved when he's got the legs, his instincts are usually ok. When he doesn't, well...then he doesn't.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

Why people are always comparing Martin to Purito? Martin isn't, and never will be, a pure climber.

Purito in his prime reached the level of Froome and Quintana in the mountains. He can do short, steep climbs AND long, hard ones both really well.

Let's chill a bit, purito was a full 2 days on their level, that's it.

Only 2 days, i mean you really gonna act like purito is such an amazing climber cause he was 2 days better than froome? That's reaching a lot.

He was also the best climber in the Vuelta 2012 and probably also Giro 2012, wasn't he? That means, in his prime, he was better than Contador for 2 straight years. Thats pretty good climbing.

In that field of the giro? Eh didn't hesjedal outclimb him sometimes? I'm prob wrong, not gonna rewatch that garbage.

And the vuelta of 2012, yea he was the climber, against a contador that just came back.

And in the tour of 2013 Contador was just bad, not his normal level (and in some MTF he was still better than purito, he just blew himself up trying to follow froome). Surely as a quintana fan you can understand that sometimes a rider doesn't reach his level for maybe no real reason.

So when Purito was the climber in 2012 and Purito couldn't wn it... was Giro 2012 really such garbage? Let's put one and one together, shall we..

 

[saganboss]

Re: Re:

Valverde might be the favourite, but I just can't see him winning. He may be the strongest, but how often does Valverde convert that into wins? I think he'd be more than happy with a medal that is silver or bronze.

If there are one or two escapees up the road over the top of the final climb, the chasing group still has a medal to fight for, and an olympic medal isn't like a podium in any other race, so a lot of chasers would probably be more than happy to save themselves for a sprint for bronze. Which is why this race will most likely be won uphill and not downhill.

This. I'm 99% sure Valverde won't win by doing a solo after an attack on the final climb or descent. And then it will be the old situation again, nobody wants to pull because Valverde is in the group and Valverde won't follow attacks because he has a horrible racing instinct. Valverde is at his best when pure strength counts (like FW or the final ascent in LBL) but he has won hardly any classics by doing a solo.

Horrible racing instinct, isnt that a little tough? Its not easy being the marked man, especially not when you aren't feeling super, like San Sebastian this year. Just ask Sagan, he has also has been accused for horrible racing instinct, but I think its harder than it seems sitting in those finales, especially when you are perceived to be 'the man to beat'.

well, the most of the times valverde's only instinct is to follow wheels, so when someone attacks and he's not close it's usually done for him because nobody will work with him, a bit like matthews at the last 2 worlds. hoping that all the races come to a sprint isn't such a brilliant racing instinct to be honest
at least sagan sometimes attacks even though he could sit on the peloton

Well his instict was ok in San Sebastian 2014 when he escaped on the decent, or in Liege 2015 when he measured his effort brilliantly. So when rider has the legs, his instincts are usually ok.

This year however, in San Sebastian he wasn't that strong so it looked like he messed up. He maybe did, but I'm closer to believe that he wasn't that strong.

In Lombardia 2014 for example, he followed Gilbert's attack uphill, Samu's attack downhill, and didn't follow Martin. Maybe he did it on purpose, but maybe he couldn't follow. The problem is when he's in the group at the end of the race, like then, literally nobody wants to react to any move, they all are looking at him. You can see that perfectly in that Lombardia. Gilbert for example is very fast rider, Valverde is faster but he could have a decent chance. Martin went past Gilbert, he saw him in time to react, but no he's letting him go and he watch Valverde. Valverde already responded couple of times so he lets too. This was maybe a gamble, a bad one. But then again, the man knows himself, you saw that in Liege 2015, he knew what he can do, he knew exactly how far can he let Moreno. Maybe he knew he has only one punch in his legs and if he responds to Martin, he's finished. We don't know...

Bottom line is, he proved when he's got the legs, his instincts are usually ok. When he doesn't, well...then he doesn't.

well that's the thing , for me it's like if he can not win then a second place is enough for him , yeah in some races he's probably tired but i always have the feeling he's not committing as much as he should on a chase .

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Perfect situation for Purito. His biggest rival and jammer is in the same team, and will be heavily marked.

If he's part of a perfect breakaway in the final, Nibali and Costa will be there too. He can beat both of them in the sprint. Not easy, but he can do it.

But most likely no Spaniard will win it. Or a clear favorite. Because this is going to be a crazy race

A guy like Purito beating a crafty guy like Rui on a 1 Vs 1 sprint? No, ****, way. Never. Ever.

Liege 2015 proves you wrong. And don't come with that 1 vs 1 nonsense

The only time they did a 1 vs 1 sprint, was in Firenze. And Costa had to sprint against a Purito who was already dead after he was caught. And Costa started the sprint in the perfect position. And even then, Purito almost came past Rui for the win. Ok, almost

 

[Arredondo]

Valverde is no Nibali. He is (too) happy with a podium. That's why he didn't won as much as he could/should, if you look at pure talent.

A cyclist with the capacities/talent of Valverde and the mindset of a Contador or Nibali, would have won 25% more races then Bala has now.

 

[nTn]

Re: Re:

Perfect situation for Purito. His biggest rival and jammer is in the same team, and will be heavily marked.

If he's part of a perfect breakaway in the final, Nibali and Costa will be there too. He can beat both of them in the sprint. Not easy, but he can do it.

But most likely no Spaniard will win it. Or a clear favorite. Because this is going to be a crazy race

A guy like Purito beating a crafty guy like Rui on a 1 Vs 1 sprint? No, ****, way. Never. Ever.

Liege 2015 proves you wrong. And don't come with that 1 vs 1 nonsense

The only time they did a 1 vs 1 sprint, was in Firenze. And Costa had to sprint against a Purito who was already dead after he was caught. And Costa started the sprint in the perfect position. And even then, Purito almost came past Rui for the win. Ok, almost

Cmon Costa caught Rodriguez alone in the final kilometre. They were both dead. Rui is way better sprinter than Rodriguez.

 

[BigMac]

Re: Re:

Perfect situation for Purito. His biggest rival and jammer is in the same team, and will be heavily marked.

If he's part of a perfect breakaway in the final, Nibali and Costa will be there too. He can beat both of them in the sprint. Not easy, but he can do it.

But most likely no Spaniard will win it. Or a clear favorite. Because this is going to be a crazy race

A guy like Purito beating a crafty guy like Rui on a 1 Vs 1 sprint? No, ****, way. Never. Ever.

Liege 2015 proves you wrong. And don't come with that 1 vs 1 nonsense

The only time they did a 1 vs 1 sprint, was in Firenze. And Costa had to sprint against a Purito who was already dead after he was caught. And Costa started the sprint in the perfect position. And even then, Purito almost came past Rui for the win. Ok, almost

This is worth noting. Purito would have won the sprint if the finish was 20/30 meters farther away.

 

[Vladivar]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

Steve Cummings to attack on second last climb. GB sit on as everyone else panics to bring him back then when he is Stannard nails it into the bottom of the last climb, Yates and G crack the peloton and 2ks from the top Froome attacks and descends like he did from the Perysoude to win easily

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Perfect situation for Purito. His biggest rival and jammer is in the same team, and will be heavily marked.

If he's part of a perfect breakaway in the final, Nibali and Costa will be there too. He can beat both of them in the sprint. Not easy, but he can do it.

But most likely no Spaniard will win it. Or a clear favorite. Because this is going to be a crazy race

A guy like Purito beating a crafty guy like Rui on a 1 Vs 1 sprint? No, ****, way. Never. Ever.

Liege 2015 proves you wrong. And don't come with that 1 vs 1 nonsense

The only time they did a 1 vs 1 sprint, was in Firenze. And Costa had to sprint against a Purito who was already dead after he was caught. And Costa started the sprint in the perfect position. And even then, Purito almost came past Rui for the win. Ok, almost

Cmon Costa caught Rodriguez alone in the final kilometre. They were both dead. Rui is way better sprinter than Rodriguez

Haven't seen that in Liege last year

 

[nTn]

Re: Re:

Perfect situation for Purito. His biggest rival and jammer is in the same team, and will be heavily marked.

If he's part of a perfect breakaway in the final, Nibali and Costa will be there too. He can beat both of them in the sprint. Not easy, but he can do it.

But most likely no Spaniard will win it. Or a clear favorite. Because this is going to be a crazy race

A guy like Purito beating a crafty guy like Rui on a 1 Vs 1 sprint? No, ****, way. Never. Ever.

Liege 2015 proves you wrong. And don't come with that 1 vs 1 nonsense

The only time they did a 1 vs 1 sprint, was in Firenze. And Costa had to sprint against a Purito who was already dead after he was caught. And Costa started the sprint in the perfect position. And even then, Purito almost came past Rui for the win. Ok, almost

Cmon Costa caught Rodriguez alone in the final kilometre. They were both dead. Rui is way better sprinter than Rodriguez

Haven't seen that in Liege last year

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=139158
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=163658

 

[Fernandez]

Re:

Valverde is no Nibali. He is (too) happy with a podium. That's why he didn't won as much as he could/should, if you look at pure talent.

A cyclist with the capacities/talent of Valverde and the mindset of a Contador or Nibali, would have won 25% more races then Bala has now.

More than 25%. Like Purito said during TdF, Valverde could have won the triple he has if he had riden cleverly/bravely.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Valverde is no Nibali. He is (too) happy with a podium. That's why he didn't won as much as he could/should, if you look at pure talent.

A cyclist with the capacities/talent of Valverde and the mindset of a Contador or Nibali, would have won 25% more races then Bala has now.

More than 25%. Like Purito said during TdF, Valverde could have won the triple he has if he had riden cleverly/bravely.

So he could have won about 250 professional races? There is a lot of nonsense talked about Valverde, like he is some kind of supreme being-cyclist who could chase down attacks all day and still win a sprint, or solo clear for 20km whenever he feels like it.

The reality is that he does these ings regularly in minor races and non-world tour events. He is a naturally aggressive rider. But it is just impossible in big world tour events - particularly classics and monuments. No rider could close every gap and still win a sprint or fend off attacks against fellow world class riders. Even the huge cobbled classic specialists are very rarely able to do that - let alone a 62kg climber.

The reason he doesn't win as many big races as his talent perhaps deserves is because he's always the favourite and always very heavily marked. No-one wants to take him to the line, no one wants to work with him in a group - if Valverde takes a pull, the other rides will just sit on then counter attack him, not work with him. The one hilly race where strength and talent matters more than tactics (FW) he has absolutely dominated.

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

Valverde is no Nibali. He is (too) happy with a podium. That's why he didn't won as much as he could/should, if you look at pure talent.

A cyclist with the capacities/talent of Valverde and the mindset of a Contador or Nibali, would have won 25% more races then Bala has now.

More than 25%. Like Purito said during TdF, Valverde could have won the triple he has if he had riden cleverly/bravely.

So he could have won about 250 professional races? There is a lot of nonsense talked about Valverde, like he is some kind of supreme being-cyclist who could chase down attacks all day and still win a sprint, or solo clear for 20km whenever he feels like it.

The reality is that he does these ings regularly in minor races and non-world tour events. He is a naturally aggressive rider. But it is just impossible in big world tour events - particularly classics and monuments. No rider could close every gap and still win a sprint or fend off attacks against fellow world class riders. Even the huge cobbled classic specialists are very rarely able to do that - let alone a 62kg climber.

The reason he doesn't win as many big races as his talent perhaps deserves is because he's always the favourite and always very heavily marked. No-one wants to take him to the line, no one wants to work with him in a group - if Valverde takes a pull, the other rides will just sit on then counter attack him, not work with him. The one hilly race where strength and talent matters more than tactics (FW) he has absolutely dominated.

This just about covers it. A rider that is competing for the win from January to October in virtually every race he enters is not going to be given much latitude by his opponents. His rivals know if he shows up at the start of any race that they have be aware of him. That is his blessing and his curse.

 

[saganboss]

Re: Re:

Valverde is no Nibali. He is (too) happy with a podium. That's why he didn't won as much as he could/should, if you look at pure talent.

A cyclist with the capacities/talent of Valverde and the mindset of a Contador or Nibali, would have won 25% more races then Bala has now.

More than 25%. Like Purito said during TdF, Valverde could have won the triple he has if he had riden cleverly/bravely.

So he could have won about 250 professional races? There is a lot of nonsense talked about Valverde, like he is some kind of supreme being-cyclist who could chase down attacks all day and still win a sprint, or solo clear for 20km whenever he feels like it.

The reality is that he does these ings regularly in minor races and non-world tour events. He is a naturally aggressive rider. But it is just impossible in big world tour events - particularly classics and monuments. No rider could close every gap and still win a sprint or fend off attacks against fellow world class riders. Even the huge cobbled classic specialists are very rarely able to do that - let alone a 62kg climber.

The reason he doesn't win as many big races as his talent perhaps deserves is because he's always the favourite and always very heavily marked. No-one wants to take him to the line, no one wants to work with him in a group - if Valverde takes a pull, the other rides will just sit on then counter attack him, not work with him. The one hilly race where strength and talent matters more than tactics (FW) he has absolutely dominated.

i agree with you that he is heavily marked. but you can't say he deserved to win more. the only way he would deserve more is when he does most of the work and someone benefits from that. I hardly think that happens, most of the times he is just beaten by somebody who attacks

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Valverde is no Nibali. He is (too) happy with a podium. That's why he didn't won as much as he could/should, if you look at pure talent.

A cyclist with the capacities/talent of Valverde and the mindset of a Contador or Nibali, would have won 25% more races then Bala has now.

I think he would win less, cause he won this way pretty much (he's behind Cav, Greipel and Boonen only). But maybe his wins would have been bigger and more spectacular. Maybe...

 

[Fernandez]

How many times a year do you see Valverde winning in an all or nothing attack. No sorry, I like Valverde, but he trust too much in his sprint and barely rides agressively.

 

[TMP402]

Not Froome apparently https://twitter.com/DanMartin86/status/761304516268523520

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Not Froome apparently https://twitter.com/DanMartin86/status/761304516268523520

Apart from the fact that he has zero credentials in one day races, if he doesn't abandon he'll take it easy, the TT is where the gold is. From team GB I think Yates will hang on well.

 

[Cannibal72]

Re: Re:

Valverde might be the favourite, but I just can't see him winning. He may be the strongest, but how often does Valverde convert that into wins? I think he'd be more than happy with a medal that is silver or bronze.

If there are one or two escapees up the road over the top of the final climb, the chasing group still has a medal to fight for, and an olympic medal isn't like a podium in any other race, so a lot of chasers would probably be more than happy to save themselves for a sprint for bronze. Which is why this race will most likely be won uphill and not downhill.

This. I'm 99% sure Valverde won't win by doing a solo after an attack on the final climb or descent. And then it will be the old situation again, nobody wants to pull because Valverde is in the group and Valverde won't follow attacks because he has a horrible racing instinct. Valverde is at his best when pure strength counts (like FW or the final ascent in LBL) but he has won hardly any classics by doing a solo.

Horrible racing instinct, isnt that a little tough? Its not easy being the marked man, especially not when you aren't feeling super, like San Sebastian this year. Just ask Sagan, he has also has been accused for horrible racing instinct, but I think its harder than it seems sitting in those finales, especially when you are perceived to be 'the man to beat'.

The word horrible was probably a bit harsh but he definitely doesn't have a good instinct. And actually the same counts for Sagan. For example in the E3 he pulled Kwiat to the finish because he thought he would easily beat him in a sprint and lost. In races like Strade Bianche he also worked a lot in the break and was totally done when they started the final climb. Even in races he won like the WC I wouldn't really call his tactics clever.

It strikes me that neither Sagan nor Valverde have matured from their junior days when they beat everyone just by being so much stronger physically. Valverde's and Sagan's poor racing instincts are also quite different in one way (though you're right about them); Bala's usually too conservative (he's the reverse Gerrans; where negative racing plays to Gerrans' strengths and helps him win, it actually harms Bala's chances in a lot of races), Sagan usually overextends himself. He's learning though; he was tactically excellent in G-W, for instance.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

Not Froome apparently https://twitter.com/DanMartin86/status/761304516268523520

Apart from the fact that he has zero credentials in one day races, if he doesn't abandon he'll take it easy, the TT is where the gold is. From team GB I think Yates will hang on well.

I think Froome would really like Thomas to win as a reward for his work. He has won at the Commonwealth Games, and the combination of climbing with a flat finish is good for him. His outsider/helper status might be a tactical advantage: who will react if he attacks?

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Not Froome apparently https://twitter.com/DanMartin86/status/761304516268523520

Apart from the fact that he has zero credentials in one day races, if he doesn't abandon he'll take it easy, the TT is where the gold is. From team GB I think Yates will hang on well.

I think Froome would really like Thomas to win as a reward for his work. He has won at the Commonwealth Games, and the combination of climbing with a flat finish is good for him. His outsider/helper status might be a tactical advantage: who will react if he attacks?

On the other hand, Thomas already has two Olympic Gold medals and three World Championship golds. Froome only has an Olympic Bronze. I bet Froome wants that Gold medal to surpass Wiggins.

 

[Asero831]

Re:

Well, there is maybe something we didnt count yet for the spanish team: Izaguirre. I think the man is in great form as we saw in TdF, and if he is there at the end with the ultimate group, then the thing for Spain could go very nice.

Not sure if we will still be there at the final climb as he will focus on the TT

 

[IndianCyclist]

Froome has one of the best chances. His TDF wins in 2013 & 2015 are all based on 1st mountain stage attack. Similar to one day race. However due to less teammates, tactically he has a big problem

 

[This Charming Man]

Re: Re:

Not Froome apparently https://twitter.com/DanMartin86/status/761304516268523520

Apart from the fact that he has zero credentials in one day races, if he doesn't abandon he'll take it easy, the TT is where the gold is. From team GB I think Yates will hang on well.

I think Froome would really like Thomas to win as a reward for his work. He has won at the Commonwealth Games, and the combination of climbing with a flat finish is good for him. His outsider/helper status might be a tactical advantage: who will react if he attacks?

Mr. Thomas would be a deserving winner.

 

[dacooley]

ufff, the profile looks bloody hard with all these climbs. I'd bet for jrod anyway. I don't think preparing for olympic games by riding both grand tour as nibali and valverde did was a correct decision. relatively fresh riders should take advantage of that.