The Olympic Road Race 2016. Rio de Janeiro. 253km

[TMP402]

Re:

Tsgabu Grmay is the other flag bearer among the road cyclist

Adrien Niyonshuti too.

 

[luckyboy]

Standing around for hours in the stadium while Bach blathers on might not be best prep for tomorrow eh

Most of the road guys skipped this didn't they? Well, the favourites I assume

 

[TMP402]

At this point Cummings is probably among the most hyped winners-from-a-breakaway of any race ever, right? Ergo he probably won't be in the break. Or if he is, the other teams are knowingly taking a big gamble.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

hope this will be the "official" thread as i'll be on the course, on the steep km165 and will rely here for the latest news of the race, broadcasting here is ridiculous and will need this forum...

 

[WildspokeJoe]

The usual suspects but i think a sleeper pulls it out in the end Poels

 

[McLovin]

Re: Re:

The mods might want to sticky one of the several Olympic threads we have. Anyway, here's some video of the pavé section: https://www.instagram.com/p/BItSIkFgRPV/

horrible technique by tcetcov

Air China lost his bike so he is now on a spare bike.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

The mods might want to sticky one of the several Olympic threads we have. Anyway, here's some video of the pavé section: https://www.instagram.com/p/BItSIkFgRPV/

Cancellara would struggle to drop Chaves on those cobbles

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

I'm pretty excited about this race. As has been mentioned (and as is obvious), the small teams combined with the tough course make it a pretty broad spectrum of possible outcomes. Here are some of my thoughts:

Outcome 1 - Favourites until the end

If this is the case and the break has no bearing on the final, then it'll be a small group to fight it out, maybe less than 10 riders. This is the case where Valverde is the big favourite, unless Alaphillipe is also in the group. Riders with the ability to be up there would be the big guns - Valv, Nibali, Froome, Rodriguez kind of guys. But I think the chances of this straightforward outcome are pretty low, like between 10-20%, because there just isn't enough common cause to control things that tightly.

Outcome 2 - Late, strong break

This is, I think, the most likely scenario, like 50-70% chance. That would be someone like Costa or Kwiatkowski or Van Avermaet attacking, and some strong guys but secondary favourites from the major countries following (Rodriguez, Aru, Barguil). This could be where someone from a smaller country could capitalize, like the above mentioned riders, or Dan Martin, who has a decent finish. This attack would have a better chance of sticking if it went on the second last climb, or on the descent before the last climb. The bigger the group at the base of the last climb, the more likely it is that the best climbers are just gonna win the war of attrition. In other words, they probably won't let them away after the last climb has started, and the first attack will bring a response from the strongest riders, and then it's on from there. But if a solid attack happens before the favourites think it's time to spend energy, and if it coalesces into a strong enough break, it'll be pretty much impossible to pull back. Caveat: the climb is hard and long enough that the break doesn't have to be pulled back - if, say, Spain chases and keeps it to 30 seconds, I could see a few favourites bridging across.

Outcome 3 - Early break makes it/mixes with late break

This is the Olympics, so there aren't many weak riders, and depending on the makeup of the early break, it could go all the way. If some strong riders that aren't mountain goats (GVA again, or Wellens, or guys like Izaguirre, Cummings, Rosa, Mike Woods, Navardauskas, and on and on) get in there, they could be given some leash, and if the favourites' teams have riders up there (which, after seeing what happened in London, I would probably want as a favourite), it could go all the way, or be joined by late bridgers, or the favourites. There's probably an equal chance of this as scenario 1, or maybe even more.

That's the thing - I just don't know! So much will be determined by who ends up in the early break, and then secondarily, when the first real attack of the finale goes. This will be a tactical and unpredictable race, and I love it!

Who do you guys see going for the early break?

Barguil will likely do team duties since he's quite sick.

 

[PremierAndrew]

30ºC for the road race, going to suit Dawg if the race ends up being won by one of the favourites

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

30ºC for the road race, going to suit Dawg if the race ends up being won by one of the favourites

A couple less when they arrive, but yes. And bala.

 

[Flamin]

Thought the race is 241,5kms...

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The mods might want to sticky one of the several Olympic threads we have. Anyway, here's some video of the pavé section: https://www.instagram.com/p/BItSIkFgRPV/

Hardly Carrefour de l'Arbre. Looks more like that tourist thingy just before the velodrome in Roubaix...

Like I said before. The notion that the classics riders will distance themselves form GT riders on the first loop because of the profile is a pipe dream...

The cobbles are only part of it. There is also the Grumari climb which has a section at 15% near the top. There are loads of opportunities for riders to get away in the first half of the race. And there is a serious lack of workers in the peloton who could pull them back on the flatter section.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

What time does this start?

 

[elfed68]

So, the BBC are hyping Chris Froome as a potential winner, and have just shown his interview on the morning show.
Given his pedigree in one day races, is he really the leader for Team GB or is he taking the pressure off Geraint Thomas who has more history in these types of races?

 

[movingtarget]

So, the BBC are hyping Chris Froome as a potential winner, and have just shown his interview on the morning show.
Given his pedigree in one day races, is he really the leader for Team GB or is he taking the pressure off Geraint Thomas who has more history in these types of races?

You have to hype the Tour winner on this course ? Records in one day races don't always mean a lot when it comes to races like the Olympics or the Worlds.

 

[elfed68]

So, the BBC are hyping Chris Froome as a potential winner, and have just shown his interview on the morning show.
Given his pedigree in one day races, is he really the leader for Team GB or is he taking the pressure off Geraint Thomas who has more history in these types of races?

You have to hype the Tour winner on this course ? Records in one day races don't always mean a lot when it comes to races like the Olympics or the Worlds.

True, Cadel Evans last tour winner who also won the WC race, who was the last TdF winner to also win Olympic RR?

Anyway, one thing is certain, Valverde will be second.

 

[Flamin]

Re:

What time does this start?

14h30 CEST.

 

[roundabout]

So, the BBC are hyping Chris Froome as a potential winner, and have just shown his interview on the morning show.
Given his pedigree in one day races, is he really the leader for Team GB or is he taking the pressure off Geraint Thomas who has more history in these types of races?

You have to hype the Tour winner on this course ? Records in one day races don't always mean a lot when it comes to races like the Olympics or the Worlds.

True, Cadel Evans last tour winner who also won the WC race, who was the last TdF winner to also win Olympic RR?

Both had better records in 1-day races than Froome at the time of their wins

 

[Lance Armstrong]

So, the BBC are hyping Chris Froome as a potential winner, and have just shown his interview on the morning show.
Given his pedigree in one day races, is he really the leader for Team GB or is he taking the pressure off Geraint Thomas who has more history in these types of races?

You have to hype the Tour winner on this course ? Records in one day races don't always mean a lot when it comes to races like the Olympics or the Worlds.

True, Cadel Evans last tour winner who also won the WC race, who was the last TdF winner to also win Olympic RR?

Both had better records in 1-day races than Froome at the time of their wins

Canoas climb is 4km at 9.6%. There is no 1-day race with climb like this so previous records are not too relevant.

 

[Netserk]

 

[DFA123]

So, the BBC are hyping Chris Froome as a potential winner, and have just shown his interview on the morning show.
Given his pedigree in one day races, is he really the leader for Team GB or is he taking the pressure off Geraint Thomas who has more history in these types of races?

You have to hype the Tour winner on this course ? Records in one day races don't always mean a lot when it comes to races like the Olympics or the Worlds.

True, Cadel Evans last tour winner who also won the WC race, who was the last TdF winner to also win Olympic RR?

Both had better records in 1-day races than Froome at the time of their wins

Canoas climb is 4km at 9.6%. There is no 1-day race with climb like this so previous records are not too relevant.

What is relevant is one day racing experience. Froome has done nothing in any significant one day race in his career - let alone one of monument distance and packed full of world class riders on top form. The constant accelerations, changes in speed and fight for position in the first 160km will break him - especially so with such small teams. Riders like Valverde, Alaphilippe, Purito and Martin will be fresher coming to the longer climb, because they can handle the anaerboic efforts much more easily. Which is why they are the best one day racers in the world and Froome is not.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

Re:

They have to climb it 3 times, followed by Vista Chinesa (4 km; 5,7 %) IMO, this is tougher than Lombardia.

 

[Netserk]

Shifting of goalposts: noted.

Speaking of tougher overall parcourse, how many more vertical meters do you think the Rio route has than the Lombardia one?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

They have to climb it 3 times, followed by Vista Chinesa (4 km; 5,7 %) IMO, this is tougher than Lombardia.

lol - it's nowhere near as tough as last year's Lombardia. The Muro di Sormano basically meant that only about five riders max had a chance of winning it. This Olympic race is way more open.

 

[Samamba]

Re: Re:

They have to climb it 3 times, followed by Vista Chinesa (4 km; 5,7 %) IMO, this is tougher than Lombardia.

lol - it's nowhere near as tough as last year's Lombardia. The Muro di Sormano basically meant that only about five riders max had a chance of winning it. This Olympic race is way more open.

Is open because there are no 8man teams, that has nothing to do with the toughness of the race.