The Olympic Road Race 2016. Rio de Janeiro. 253km

[Lance Armstrong]

Re: Re:

They have to climb it 3 times, followed by Vista Chinesa (4 km; 5,7 %) IMO, this is tougher than Lombardia.

lol - it's nowhere near as tough as last year's Lombardia. The Muro di Sormano basically meant that only about five riders max had a chance of winning it. This Olympic race is way more open.

We'll see. I think the combination of length, small teams, temperature and humidity will make it super-selective. I can't see more than 5 riders with the chance of winning.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

They have to climb it 3 times, followed by Vista Chinesa (4 km; 5,7 %) IMO, this is tougher than Lombardia.

lol - it's nowhere near as tough as last year's Lombardia. The Muro di Sormano basically meant that only about five riders max had a chance of winning it. This Olympic race is way more open.

Is open because there are no 8man teams, that has nothing to do with the toughness of the race.

Not really. It's open because the course offers opportunities for all different kinds of riders to win. It's not so tough that only a world class climber can win - as Lombardia was last year.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

They have to climb it 3 times, followed by Vista Chinesa (4 km; 5,7 %) IMO, this is tougher than Lombardia.

lol - it's nowhere near as tough as last year's Lombardia. The Muro di Sormano basically meant that only about five riders max had a chance of winning it. This Olympic race is way more open.

We'll see. I think the combination of length, small teams, temperature and humidity will make it super-selective. I can't see more than 5 riders with the chance of winning.

Which five riders do you think have a chance? The bookies have the top five favourites as Valverde, Nibali, Froome, Alaphilippe and Martin. But I think there are loads more with a chance: Mollema, Purito, Rui Costa, GVA, the Colombians, Bardet, Kreuziger, Poels etc... Also, if the top teams all send someone into the breakaway early on in the race then that might well stay away with no-one willing to chase them; and you could have secondary riders like Thomas, Izagirre, and Gilbert battling for the win.

 

[Red Rick]

It's super tough, but not so selective you can just pick the best of the climbers and assume they'll be the ones to win

 

[May0maniac]

There are many strong underdogs who could get away (the Estonians, the Iranians, Kleber Ramos, Yonathan Monsalve and many more), it will be really hard to control the race.

 

[8472]

Since this became official race thread, added some more race info on first page.

 

[HelloDolly]

Nicolas Roche has said

""It's a really tough course," said Roche yesterday. "Definitely the hardest Olympic course I've seen and probably the hardest one day race out there.""

 

[Gigs_98]

What is relevant is one day racing experience. Froome has done nothing in any significant one day race in his career - let alone one of monument distance and packed full of world class riders on top form. The constant accelerations, changes in speed and fight for position in the first 160km will break him - especially so with such small teams. Riders like Valverde, Alaphilippe, Purito and Martin will be fresher coming to the longer climb, because they can handle the anaerboic efforts much more easily. Which is why they are the best one day racers in the world and Froome is not.

The factor of experience is overrated. Froome will probably do exactly what every other favorite will probably do, sit in the peloton for a few hours and then go all out on the last climb hoping that every break has been caught. Ofc you could argue that this race might be very chaotic and this tactic probably won't work (which might be right) but the other one day racers don't really have experience for such a race too because races like todays don't exist anywhere else. And I doubt the long distance and the hills will be a problem for him. Guys like Schleck were able to win LBL when they targeted it and I think that Schleck is by far more one-dimensional than Froome. For me Froome is definitely one of the biggest favorites.

 

[roundabout]

What is relevant is one day racing experience. Froome has done nothing in any significant one day race in his career - let alone one of monument distance and packed full of world class riders on top form. The constant accelerations, changes in speed and fight for position in the first 160km will break him - especially so with such small teams. Riders like Valverde, Alaphilippe, Purito and Martin will be fresher coming to the longer climb, because they can handle the anaerboic efforts much more easily. Which is why they are the best one day racers in the world and Froome is not.

The factor of experience is overrated. Froome will probably do exactly what every other favorite will probably do, sit in the peloton for a few hours and then go all out on the last climb hoping that every break has been caught. Ofc you could argue that this race might be very chaotic and this tactic probably won't work (which might be right) but the other one day racers don't really have experience for such a race too because races like todays don't exist anywhere else. And I doubt the long distance and the hills will be a problem for him. Guys like Schleck were able to win LBL when they targeted it and I think that Schleck is by far more one-dimensional than Froome. For me Froome is definitely one of the biggest favorites.

Bad example. Schleck won in a race with 8 rider teams on the course familiar to everyone and he had an incredibly strong team to disrupt the chase after the last major obstacle.

He also finished 4th in Liege, Lombardy and Olympics before, despite being "by far more one-dimensional" than Chris "3rd place in the Giro dell Appennino" Froome.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Ullrich has won Olympic gold, LeMond and Olano have won world titles, so GT specialists can win a one-day race on a hilly course.

The best way to make it an open race would be if the strong countries sent someone in the breakaway. E.g. Cummings, Izaguirre, De Marchi, Vuillermoz, Dumoulin, Pauwels, Pantano... As soon as some of these are in a break it becomes an interesting race. You can't afford to give those minutes.

 

[Valv.Piti]

While Schleck was one-dimensional in terms of only being able to climb in GT's, he was an incredible one day racer for some reason.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Ullrich has won Olympic gold, LeMond and Olano have won world titles, so GT specialists can win a one-day race on a hilly course.

The best way to make it an open race would be if the strong countries sent someone in the breakaway. E.g. Cummings, Izaguirre, De Marchi, Vuillermoz, Dumoulin, Pauwels, Pantano... As soon as some of these are in a break it becomes an interesting race. You can't afford to give those minutes.

Ullrich, LeMond and (to a lesser extent) Olano were all much more than GT specialists. Ullrich and LeMond were superb one day racers. I think LeMond podiumed in MSR, Lombardia and finished high in PR, as well as winning the worlds. Ullrich also won and placed high in loads of big one day races - despite being woefully out of shape for most of them. Froome has done absolutely nothing in any half-decent one day race.

It's the anaerobic nature of the race that will kill him. You don't get that in GTs because everyone is too tired after the first couple of days to do so many hard efforts in one day. I think he'll be out of contention by the time they reach the climb for the final time.

 

[deValtos]

Eurosport now showing this?

 

[Billie]

Re:

While Schleck was one-dimensional in terms of only being able to climb in GT's, he was an incredible one day racer for some reason.

Indeed. The Schlecks was great classics men. Andy even had good results in Strade Bianche despite 'only caring about two races' (a notion that is completely wrong)

Andy Schleck classics resume:
8th Strade Bianche
9th Amstel Gold Race
2nd Fleche Wallone
1st Liege-Bastogne-Liege (also finished 3th, 4th and 5th)
4th Olympics RR
4th Lombardia

Not bad for someone whose career hardly lasted longer than 5 years

Frank Schleck classics resume:
1st Amstel Gold Race
6th Fleche Wallone
2nd Liege-Bastogne-Liege (also finished 3rd and 3rd)
4th World Championships
3rd Lombardia
2nd Zuri Metzgete


If anyone is one-dimensional it is Froome who only has results in stage races.

 

[deValtos]

Re: Re:

Ullrich has won Olympic gold, LeMond and Olano have won world titles, so GT specialists can win a one-day race on a hilly course.

The best way to make it an open race would be if the strong countries sent someone in the breakaway. E.g. Cummings, Izaguirre, De Marchi, Vuillermoz, Dumoulin, Pauwels, Pantano... As soon as some of these are in a break it becomes an interesting race. You can't afford to give those minutes.

Ullrich, LeMond and (to a lesser extent) Olano were all much more than GT specialists. Ullrich and LeMond were superb one day racers. I think LeMond podiumed in MSR, Lombardia and finished high in PR, as well as winning the worlds. Ullrich also won and placed high in loads of big one day races - despite being woefully out of shape for most of them. Froome has done absolutely nothing in any half-decent one day race.

It's the anaerobic nature of the race that will kill him. You don't get that in GTs because everyone is too tired after the first couple of days to do so many hard efforts in one day. I think he'll be out of contention by the time they reach the climb for the final time.

Yea but you've got to remember Froome didn't show much before winning a GT, or riding away on a descent, or across cobbles, or away on the flat. Kid will be fine.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Ullrich has won Olympic gold, LeMond and Olano have won world titles, so GT specialists can win a one-day race on a hilly course.

The best way to make it an open race would be if the strong countries sent someone in the breakaway. E.g. Cummings, Izaguirre, De Marchi, Vuillermoz, Dumoulin, Pauwels, Pantano... As soon as some of these are in a break it becomes an interesting race. You can't afford to give those minutes.

Ullrich, LeMond and (to a lesser extent) Olano were all much more than GT specialists. Ullrich and LeMond were superb one day racers. I think LeMond podiumed in MSR, Lombardia and finished high in PR, as well as winning the worlds. Ullrich also won and placed high in loads of big one day races - despite being woefully out of shape for most of them. Froome has done absolutely nothing in any half-decent one day race.

It's the anaerobic nature of the race that will kill him. You don't get that in GTs because everyone is too tired after the first couple of days to do so many hard efforts in one day. I think he'll be out of contention by the time they reach the climb for the final time.

Yea but you've got to remember Froome didn't show much before winning a GT, or riding away on a descent, or across cobbles, or away on the flat. Kid will be fine.

Not sure most of that is really true. He was 2nd twice before winning his first GT. He didn't do anything special across cobbles - just stayed upright on a section where even Quintana wasn't dropped. The descending was pretty impressive, but he basically caught everyone by surprise and had a bigger gear than the rest on a non-technical descent. And riding away on the flat he did once, in a break that was driven by two of the best classics specialists and a monster TTist, gaining him six seconds over 10km.

I just don't see how he wins this. In a chaotic, hard race with loads of changes in pace, he'll get dropped before the final climb. In an easy paced race, he won't be able to drop and stay away from faster finishers on the final climb.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Wasn't there a topic about streams somewhere?
Am I missing it or was it taken down?

 

[deValtos]

Re: Re:

Ullrich has won Olympic gold, LeMond and Olano have won world titles, so GT specialists can win a one-day race on a hilly course.

The best way to make it an open race would be if the strong countries sent someone in the breakaway. E.g. Cummings, Izaguirre, De Marchi, Vuillermoz, Dumoulin, Pauwels, Pantano... As soon as some of these are in a break it becomes an interesting race. You can't afford to give those minutes.

Ullrich, LeMond and (to a lesser extent) Olano were all much more than GT specialists. Ullrich and LeMond were superb one day racers. I think LeMond podiumed in MSR, Lombardia and finished high in PR, as well as winning the worlds. Ullrich also won and placed high in loads of big one day races - despite being woefully out of shape for most of them. Froome has done absolutely nothing in any half-decent one day race.

It's the anaerobic nature of the race that will kill him. You don't get that in GTs because everyone is too tired after the first couple of days to do so many hard efforts in one day. I think he'll be out of contention by the time they reach the climb for the final time.

Yea but you've got to remember Froome didn't show much before winning a GT, or riding away on a descent, or across cobbles, or away on the flat. Kid will be fine.

Not sure most of that is really true. He was 2nd twice before winning his first GT. He didn't do anything special across cobbles - just stayed upright on a section where even Quintana wasn't dropped. The descending was pretty impressive, but he basically caught everyone by surprise and had a bigger gear than the rest on a non-technical descent. And riding away on the flat he did once, in a break that was driven by two of the best classics specialists and a monster TTist, gaining him six seconds over 10km.

I just don't see how he wins this. In a chaotic, hard race with loads of changes in pace, he'll get dropped before the final climb. In an easy paced race, he won't be able to drop and stay away from faster finishers on the final climb.

Well technically a lot of what you said is right. I just wouldn't underestimate Froome.

The main key difference between this and nearly every other one day race Froome has done is that he's actually targeted this one. When he targets a race he's usually pretty good.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Dumoulin is going to start but almost immediately quit the race.

Dutch team basically has no helpers now. Hm.

 

[70kmph]

Its starting

http://cricfree.sx/update/bbc1.php

 

[carolina]

some more streams: https://www.procyclinglive.com/livestream/#

 

[GP Blanco]

Cummings already at the back of the peloton.

 

[thequestionmark]

German ZDF: http://rio.zdf.de/live/2486/

 

[Gigs_98]

I think I can't watch this race. The Austrian commentator is the most stupid person on this planet. He already explained that there aren't many riders who can win because famous riders like Sagan and Cavendish aren't participating.

Edit: Now he has already called GVA, Van Avermeit and Wout Poels, Pout Woels. I'm not joking.

 

[Red Rick]

I think I can't watch this race. The Austrian commentator is the most stupid person on this planet. He already explained that there aren't many riders who can win because famous riders like Sagan and Cavendish aren't participating.

Edit: Now he has already called GVA, Van Avermeit and Wout Poels, Pout Woels. I'm not joking.

There's only one man remaining to be mentioned

The man
The myth
The legend

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Mauke Bollema