The Olympic Road Race 2016. Rio de Janeiro. 253km

[SeriousSam]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

I think Valverde is more likely to win than any other rider, but he is much more likely not to win than to win

 

[Anderis]

Re:

Why people are always comparing Martin to Purito? Martin isn't, and never will be, a pure climber.

Purito in his prime reached the level of Froome and Quintana in the mountains. He can do short, steep climbs AND long, hard ones both really well.

Martin has always been a good climber and underrated in high mountains IMO, just inconsistent, mainly due to health issues. He won 2 mountain GT stages (neither of them was from early break), finished top10 overall in GTs 2 times and 3rd time was denied to him by 3rd week illness. Surely Purito in his prime was better, but I can see some similarities between them.

Mind you, Purito only excelled in high mountains when he was already older than Martin currently is. Who knows, maybe Dan will show simillar progression in the near future?

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

You mean the guy who reached the Tour podium in 2013 by riding almost the whole climb of Semnoz (10 km at 8.5%) at a really hard pace, dropping Contador by more then 2 minutes.

You really don't believe that nonsense, do you?

We're in 2016 now

Purito can definitely handle long climbs as well but the short steep stuff is what suits him best, and this is not that.

It's not a question of handle. If he's in shape, he can put pressure on them as well. A guy like Dan Martin normally is only able to follow on a climb like that. But Purito can attack. Just like Nibali, Valverde, Froome, Porte and Bardet can do.

And the climb does have some steep pitches. It's not a regular 5.7% climb.

Aside from the fact you are getting worked up about this I want to point out Dan Mrtin can climb and attack as he showed in the Alps last week...Attacked more than Purito
If it was a MTF I would fancy Purito but that and the fact he is riding with (for?) Valverde makes me think twice about him winning

There is a descent and a flat finish ..we have seen Martin has a very fast finish and can win on this course but then there are other contenders who could do well

Its about being in the right move/on the right wheel

 

[rick james]

Re: Re:

You mean the guy who reached the Tour podium in 2013 by riding almost the whole climb of Semnoz (10 km at 8.5%) at a really hard pace, dropping Contador by more then 2 minutes.

You really don't believe that nonsense, do you?

We're in 2016 now

Purito can definitely handle long climbs as well but the short steep stuff is what suits him best, and this is not that.

Lies, its 2009

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

Why people are always comparing Martin to Purito? Martin isn't, and never will be, a pure climber.

Because their skillset is more similar to each other than to anyone else in the tier of riders that can win very big races. That doesn't mean they are identical - while both are mostly likely to win a race by going nuts at the flamme rouge, Purito is much better on very, very steep ramps, Martin is much more likely to attack from distance, etc etc. But for the most part, they are riders it makes sense to categorise together when looking at what kind of riders can win a race and how.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

I think Valverde is more likely to win than any other rider, but he is much more likely not to win than to win

Exactly, well spoken.
It's going to be really unpredictable race, it may go in many directions. Strong breakaway of classic specialists established on the first circuit can easily take it. Good climber with an early surprise attack can take it. Good descender too. Late attacker, strong finisher, you name it!

Oh and as long as Purito concerns, I think he'll be very strong and certainly he's among the strongest favorites right after Bala, together with Nibali, Martin, Froome... And about team support, why wouldn't he have one. That Movistar trio will work for Bala and him as long as they can, and then it's up to them. I'm expecting Purito to attack on the last climb and then who knows...

 

[Cookster15]

The course requires a strong team. Assuming he holds form Froome is the favourite for me. The Spanish and Italians always seem to have problems with team cohesion or poor tactics. If they can be cohesive they will prove me wrong but I have my doubts. The Brits have a strong team on paper and will work together. The Dutch and Aussies might be the dark horses. Really happy with the tough but balanced course that eliminates sprinters.

 

[May0maniac]

Pourseyedi and Mizbani to crush everyone else.

 

[Thepirateisgood]

A breakout group from the break will win this.
Who will possibly cooperate, or have a strong enough team with max 5 guys to reign in a strong break with most (big)teams so climbheavy and full of potential leaders?

The climb is not so crazy, designated favorites like Froome, Valverde, Martin - are they so good at such climbs?
Can't say I've seen that, but then that is not their normal hunting grounds.

Cummings type rider to take it from front group, GvA will kill this from a break if he's racing.
Anyone got link to final teams, if they are finalized at all?
Will T. Dumolain only do tempo, if anything at all?
Obvious choice for this route.

Otherwise Froome solo from 2nd last climb would be cool to. Or Mollema.

But my money is on Kanstantsin Siutsou. I would absolutely love that, if he's riding.

Edit: What temperatures are expected in Rio this time of year?

 

[TMP402]

Re:

What temperatures are expected in Rio this time of year?

25C. Froome weather.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

Anyone ever done the Olympic Double?

 

[happytramp]

Martin has won the two climbers monuments over 250km and is clearly on great climbing and sprinting form right now. I'd say it'll be him or Valverde.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

Martin has won the two climbers monuments over 250km and is clearly on great climbing and sprinting form right now. I'd say it'll be him or Valverde.

Well, I suppose having one team mate is one more than he had during the Tour.

Valverde is the clear favourite to me. Martin is one of about four second tier favourites.

 

[The Barb]

Such an open race ... Any move from 100km or even more from the finish could be the winning one and while there's an element of tactical nous involved in picking the right one, luck plays a huge part.

I like France's prospects with Bardet and Alaphilippe having finished the Tour strongly. Bardet probably needs to finish alone but if he can get a gap over the top of the final climb he will extend it on the descent and be hard to pull back. In a scenario like that Alaphilippe can do no work in the chase group, knowing that if it comes back together he will probably outsprint anyone likely to still be in contention (apart from Valverde).

But yeah, any one of dozens of riders could win this without it being a huge surprise.

Can't wait. We deserve a manic race after such a pedestrian Tour.

 

[SlickMongoose]

I honestly think Yates has a better chance than Froome.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

For all the talk of how tough the course is, I don't think it's quite long enough to thin teams out to where the leaders will be so fractured that we'll see a solo win from a distance, or a straggling of riders coming into the finish, but small groups at the end, maybe even a sprint of a half dozen riders or so at the line.

 

[Red Rick]

Does anyone have a profile of the Beijing course for reference?

 

[BigMac]

Re:

Does anyone have a profile of the Beijing course for reference?

I think.

 

[The Barb]

Re:

The axis on that Beijing profile makes it look harder than it actually was. Make no mistake, it was tough but I think this Rio is much tougher, even though the final few hundred metres at Beijing were an absolute uphill slog. Spain played things superbly that day.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

Anyone ever done the Olympic Double?

In 2000, Ullrich won the RR and was 9 seconds off winning the TT. In 08, Cancellara won the ITT and with Rebellin's 2nd place wiped from the record books, is now the Silver medallist in the RR. So two 1-2s in recent Olympic games, but no double... until now.

 

[Netserk]

No real flat parts in the last 150km made it tough. Not to forget the humidity and heat.

 

[Night Rider]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

I think Valverde is more likely to win than any other rider, but he is much more likely not to win than to win

I agree and I would also apply the same comment to Nibali who I would like to see win.

I think Porte is the most likely winner, might sound odd coming from me if you read the LRP thread but horses for courses.

Weak team support for LRP though excluding Rohan.

Profile

 

[sienna]

Re:

Purito to go out with a big bang by beating Nibbles in a sprint a-deux. Alaphilippe to get the bronze.

Rodriguez for me.

 

[deValtos]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

Wait, which profile is it ?

3 or 4 ascents ?

 

[Night Rider]

Re: Who will win Olympics Road Race 2016 Rio

Wait, which profile is it ?

3 or 4 ascents ?

I removed my profile until that's confirmed, don't want to cause confusion. The one I got was from CW site. It's been up for a few months.