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Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

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Interesting. I'll be honest, I think it would be nuts for him to worry about anything but finishing well in this race. There are huge stages ahead. Hold your podium, finish your goals for the Tour. Then think about the Olympics.

My strong sense, especially with injury in Basque Country, is that he's been aiming his peak for the last week, then hoping to ride that peak into the Olympics.
I should have clarified. He's going to ride defensively, try to win the ITT on stage 21. He just needs to keep things simple to hold on the podium and white jersey,
 
I think that's optimistic. He gained 45s to Roglic in the '22 Vuelta over 31km. He gained 12s to Pogacar over 25km. Even if the latter TT would have been completely flat, that might increase the gap to 25-30s. There is no way he is going to expand that to 2-3 minutes over 50-60km imho. At least not at his optimal climbing weight.

Those distances are below where the gaps start to expand exponentially. As we saw in the WTT last year, it's really beyond 35-40km where the gaps just balloon. One you lose it in an ITT, you lose buckets really quickly
 
On Plateau de Beille Evenepoel rode the time I expected of Pogacar... And he lost by two minutes.

If Evenepoel had been born five to eight years earlier he could have won the Tour in 2016-2019. Now he's just facing insane opposition.

He's riding an intelligent Tour. The third place seems to be the best possible result. LeMond and Pantani finished third in their first Tour, so it would put him in good company.
 
Pog beat Pantanis record up the Plateau de Beille by 3m44seconds after a hot and tough stage!I have not checked the wind on the climb, but it looked like it was side wind the last km’s and relatively quiet the first 12-13k. Anyone here that can confirm the conditions? This stage comes at the end of the second week after very hard racing the last couple of days. I know the bikes has gotten lighter, the teammates are stronger and the nutrition and recovery is more professional. Hate to say it, as i am a big cycling lover, but [[content deleted]]
You can start by taking into account that Pogacar had a train in front of him. Starting with Jorgensen and then Vingegaard. On top of that you have much better bikes and materials. And then the whole sport is more professional with nutritionists and better training methods.
 
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I would say he's performing at/near the high end of the expected range.
Agreed. I was pretty sure he was going to crack on today's stage, at least looking at it ahead of the race. He's managed his energy really, really well. He's definitely helped by not having any decent rivals at the moment.

(on a side note, I cannot believe how out of form so many riders are like S. Yates, hindley,Mas, Gall etc...)
 
Nobody is getting caught, no rumours about secret doping, so why the suspicions?
I think the most important factor here is a few generational talents spurring each other on. Remco's current level should have won him the tours of Bernal, Thomas, Wiggins, Sastre, Schleck, Nibali,... He would be close to challenging Froome and Contador. But Pogacar and Vingegard are just so good. The 2021 win of pogacar was so easy. The leap Vinge made in 2022 to beat a prime Pog. And then the ITT in 2023 of Vinge, just wow.
And how does the goat respond, by notching it up another level. Just like Nadal, Federer and Djok challenging each other.
Vinge launching Pogacar offcourse made him even faster. He just did the last 5,6 km?
Add the training, food, science, material,...
 
You can start by taking into account that Pogacar had a train in front of him. Starting with Jorgensen and then Vingegaard. On top of that you have much better bikes and materials. And then the whole sport is more professional with nutritionists and better training methods.
You can also add that they are all generational talents and that Pog in particular had a season where it all seems to fit. His performance is such an outlier in w/kg vs duration that we should treat it like that: an outlier. We cannot expect that he does this often, maybe it happens never again.
 
Nobody is getting caught, no rumours about secret doping, so why the suspicions?
I think the most important factor here is a few generational talents spurring each other on. Remco's current level should have won him the tours of Bernal, Thomas, Wiggins, Sastre, Schleck, Nibali,... He would be close to challenging Froome and Contador. But Pogacar and Vingegard are just so good. The 2021 win of pogacar was so easy. The leap Vinge made in 2022 to beat a prime Pog. And then the ITT in 2023 of Vinge, just wow.
And how does the goat respond, by notching it up another level. Just like Nadal, Federer and Djok challenging each other.
Vinge launching Pogacar offcourse made him even faster. He just did the last 5,6 km?
Add the training, food, science, material,...
Man, evenepoel nuked pantani's historic record yesterday, so he was not close to challenging froome and contador. He blew them out of the water.

When that duo were household names, no one dared to think pantani's records would be eclipsed. At least on this forum.
 
Agreed. I was pretty sure he was going to crack on today's stage, at least looking at it ahead of the race. He's managed his energy really, really well. He's definitely helped by not having any decent rivals at the moment.

(on a side note, I cannot believe how out of form so many riders are like S. Yates, hindley,Mas, Gall etc...)
They're all totally demoralised.
 
In an interview with HLN he said that he isn't planning to attack for the 2nd place of Vingegaard if that puts his 3rd place in danger. Get bigger balls Remco! Nonetheless if Pogacar or Vingegaard would have a bad day on the other hand, he will attack them and try something. He hopes for another stage victory but it will be difficult.

He also believes there is still some margin to grow the next few years. Changing training methods to aim purely for a GC, and he might be able to lose some more weight.

 
In an interview with HLN he said that he isn't planning to attack for the 2nd place of Vingegaard if that puts his 3rd place in danger. Get bigger balls Remco! Nonetheless if Pogacar or Vingegaard would have a bad day on the other hand, he will attack them and try something. He hopes for another stage victory but it will be difficult.

He also believes there is still some margin to grow the next few years. Changing training methods to aim purely for a GC, and he might be able to lose some more weight.


Finally, Evenepoel also spoke about the climb times on Plateau de Beille. Pogacar pulverized the best time with no less than four minutes, but Vingegaard and Evenepoel also drove up considerably faster than Marco Pantani in 1998. “I think Pogacar has cut off a bit of a route somewhere,” jokes the young Belgian.

“I’ve never experienced anything like it yesterday. Certainly not after a stage of two hundred kilometers and 5,000 altitude meters. It was quite heavy, but I drove up the final climb. I think I was above six watts per kilometer. Tadej’s performance was really huge.”
“Probably this is the best forty-minute effort we’ve ever seen in cycling. If you see that he improves Pantani’s time by four minutes, you are from another planet. Yes, we're going fast! But I’m also proud to be faster than Pantani.”
 
I must admit, it seems i unwillingly "lied" (i misremembered and mixed up two things) about Evenepoel's weight in Valencia 2022. It wasn't 68kg like i mentioned a few times recently. But it was "only" 66.5kg. I think i mixed it up with his actual winter /off-season weight, with Valencia happening early February. I just started digging through the topic back to '22 and it was reported as 66.5kg at the time. So my humblest apologies for that.
 
Nobody is getting caught, no rumours about secret doping, so why the suspicions?
I think the most important factor here is a few generational talents spurring each other on. Remco's current level should have won him the tours of Bernal, Thomas, Wiggins, Sastre, Schleck, Nibali,... He would be close to challenging Froome and Contador. But Pogacar and Vingegard are just so good. The 2021 win of pogacar was so easy. The leap Vinge made in 2022 to beat a prime Pog. And then the ITT in 2023 of Vinge, just wow.
And how does the goat respond, by notching it up another level. Just like Nadal, Federer and Djok challenging each other.
Vinge launching Pogacar offcourse made him even faster. He just did the last 5,6 km?
Add the training, food, science, material,...

Why post this here?
 
Realistically, his best shot is Vingegaard suicide attacking Pogacar anyway.

I see very little room for ambitious moves, apart from like attacking solo between Bonette and Isola 2000 and hope Vingegaard and Pogacar won't work together.

Such a weird position to be in. Clearly in the best form of his life, but also not really in the race in that he's on his own little island in GC.
No reason to attack, he needs to use a little energy as possible to conserve his podium as the Olympic ITT is a bigger target.
 
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Realistically, his best shot is Vingegaard suicide attacking Pogacar anyway.

I see very little room for ambitious moves, apart from like attacking solo between Bonette and Isola 2000 and hope Vingegaard and Pogacar won't work together.

Such a weird position to be in. Clearly in the best form of his life, but also not really in the race in that he's on his own little island in GC.
Yeah, which is a very easy position to be in. Just let UAE and Visma do their thing, and once they attack ride your own pace which is too high for the rest
 
Realistically, his best shot is Vingegaard suicide attacking Pogacar anyway.

I see very little room for ambitious moves, apart from like attacking solo between Bonette and Isola 2000 and hope Vingegaard and Pogacar won't work together.

Such a weird position to be in. Clearly in the best form of his life, but also not really in the race in that he's on his own little island in GC.
I don't know. I think Vingegaard will try, but i'm afraid he will soon find out it's of little use. I can see a scenario where Vingegaard goes for it a couple of times, but stops as soon as he sees Pog isn't dropping. Maybe Evenepoel could come back when the tempo drops, and sneaks off himself on the other side of the road. Neither of the other two wanting to react, Vingegaard demoralized, Pog not needing to attack. Possibly one of them then tries to drop the other and bridge to Evenepoel eventually. With some luck (for Evenepoel) that isn't Vingegaard and they can then work together. Could happen.

Other than that, his options are limited, just as Vingegaard's are. But i give him a better shot at becoming 2nd, than Vingegaard getting 1st tbh. They could both try long range attacks with pawns in the breakaway. But both UAE (in Vingegaard's case) as Visma (in Evenepoel's case) are too strong for that to have a realistic shot at succeeding imho.
 
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I don't know. I think Vingegaard will try, but i'm afraid he will soon find out it's of little use. I can see a scenario where Vingegaard goes for it a couple of times, but stops as soon as he sees Pog isn't dropping. Maybe Evenepoel could come back when the tempo drops, and sneaks off himself on the other side of the road. Neither of the other two wanting to react, Vingegaard demoralized, Pog not needing to attack. Possibly one of them then tries to drop the other and bridge to Evenepoel eventually. With some luck (for Evenepoel) that isn't Vingegaard and they can then work together. Could happen.

Other than that, his options are limited, just as Vingegaard's are. But i give him a better shot at becoming 2nd, than Vingegaard getting 1st tbh. They could both try long range attacks with pawns in the breakaway. But both UAE (in Vingegaard's case) as Visma (in Evenepoel's case) are too strong for that to have a realistic shot at succeeding imho.
On stage 17, SOQ could send someone ahead, and Evenepoel could bridge on Col du Noyer. But the differences won't be big if Visma starts chasing, the effort will be hard, so he is probably going to save himself for the last 3 stages.

NoyerE.gif
 
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I don't know. I think Vingegaard will try, but i'm afraid he will soon find out it's of little use. I can see a scenario where Vingegaard goes for it a couple of times, but stops as soon as he sees Pog isn't dropping. Maybe Evenepoel could come back when the tempo drops, and sneaks off himself on the other side of the road. Neither of the other two wanting to react, Vingegaard demoralized, Pog not needing to attack. Possibly one of them then tries to drop the other and bridge to Evenepoel eventually. With some luck (for Evenepoel) that isn't Vingegaard and they can then work together. Could happen.

Other than that, his options are limited, just as Vingegaard's are. But i give him a better shot at becoming 2nd, than Vingegaard getting 1st tbh. They could both try long range attacks with pawns in the breakaway. But both UAE (in Vingegaard's case) as Visma (in Evenepoel's case) are too strong for that to have a realistic shot at succeeding imho.
That is plausible. I think he is handling having great form but being left behind every time very maturely in recognition that he is riding very well but the other two are all time great level.
 
Remco Evenepoel lost 2:51 min on a climb to Pogačar, but his performance still was the 23rd best of all-time as he pushed 6.53 ᵉW/Kg for 42:41, which for sea level normalised is 6.81 ᵉW/Kg. Evenepoel’s performance still is the third best in the 21st century. Pogačar’s Stage 14 effort on Pla d’Adet is the fourth best.

Ridiculous if you think about it. Third best performance of the 21st century. Third best performance of July 14th 2024.
 
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