Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[red_flanders]

Great stuff by Remco. He's one of the riders I feel most ambivalent about, but I'll need a third wheel to cheer for when Rog is retired.

Hopefully this Tour will put all the talk about him "not being a GT rider" behind us. The new question will be much more interesting: can he ever win the Tour? I'll go out on a limb and say he will finish his career with at least one victory.

Agree on him winning a Tour. I think it happens, things change. People get injured, change teams, have bad years. He's 24.

To the bolded, it seems like this is where the goalposts will be moved by those who don't like him. "Not a GT rider" and "Not good in the high mountains" will move to "Never gonna win the Tour". Well, I hope not, I'm wrong and most folks give him his due if he wraps this up.

2 more huge stages to go. I think he holds on, but hope he holds on well. I hope the race chills out a bit actually, and a break can win. The GC battle is essentially over. I hear Jonas making "It's not over" noises however. I mean good for him for keeping it going, but...not sure what else exactly he thinks is gonna happen differently at this point. The only stage where he gained hope was 11, and I think we can all recognize that Pogi bonked to some extent.

Would be nice to see someone from Bora able to win a big stage (Hindley?) and salvage the Tour for Bora.

 

[jmdirt]

keep fighting RE!

 

[Flurk1982]

What is the possibility that the TdF will add more ITT km's in the future?

 

[Peyroteo94]

What is the possibility that the TdF will add more ITT km's in the future?

I would love too. I miss a good old TT of 50 km in the first week.
We don't a long TT since Kyrienka beat Contador in the 2015 Giro (this one was in the second week)

 

[jmdirt]

Agree on him winning a Tour. I think it happens, things change. People get injured, change teams, have bad years. He's 24.

To the bolded, it seems like this is where the goalposts will be moved by those who don't like him. "Not a GT rider" and "Not good in the high mountains" will move to "Never gonna win the Tour". Well, I hope not, I'm wrong and most folks give him his due if he wraps this up.

2 more huge stages to go. I think he holds on, but hope he holds on well. I hope the race chills out a bit actually, and a break can win. The GC battle is essentially over. I hear Jonas making "It's not over" noises however. I mean good for him for keeping it going, but...not sure what else exactly he thinks is gonna happen differently at this point. The only stage where he gained hope was 11, and I think we can all recognize that Pogi bonked to some extent.

Would be nice to see someone from Bora able to win a big stage (Hindley?) and salvage the Tour for Bora.

Anyone who says or types that...

 

[red_flanders]

Anyone who says or types that...

Can't count how many times I've read this here in the last months.

 

[Izzyeviel]

What is the possibility that the TdF will add more ITT km's in the future?

a 60km TTT & a 50k solo TT if the ASO had any guts.

 

[red_flanders]

a 60km TTT & a 50k solo TT if the ASO had any guts.

The argument (and this is probably not news to you) for not having a long TTT is that it favors the big money teams too much. I'm OK with that. But I'd love to see a 35k hilly TT and a 55k flat TT.

Miss seeing bigger guys have a shot.

 

[houtdffan]

a 60km TTT & a 50k solo TT if the ASO had any guts.

and a second 65km ITT, plus a 7km prologue. Along with 2 mountain stages similar to today

You know, a balanced tour route

 

[Andre]

What is the possibility that the TdF will add more ITT km's in the future?

80 percent that they will

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

a 60km TTT & a 50k solo TT if the ASO had any guts.

I'm a fan of TTT's because it is an interesting discipline, but not for GC. Imho, they should have TTT's with boniseconds and disregard the actual timedifferences. I don't even think at this point a TTT would be in Evenepoel's favor. What i don't understand though, is why every stage podium gets boniseconds, but ITT podium don't. So if you are only able to outclimb a rival by 2 seconds, you should be rewarded for that, but if you are able to outpace a rival in a TT by 2 seconds, tough luck. Makes no sense.

At this point i don't really think more TT's would favor Evenepoel that much. It's clear that in order to be able to come close to Vingegaard and Pogacar uphill, he should lose a bit more weight, but then the advantage in the TT's would shrink as well. I'm sure he'd be able to take 60s or more out of the other two in a 50k flat TT even when skinny, but in the grand scheme of things, that's likely not going to be a deciding factor.

 

[houtdffan]

I'm a fan of TTT's because it is an interesting discipline, but not for GC. Imho, they should have TTT's with boniseconds and disregard the actual timedifferences. I don't even think at this point a TTT would be in Evenepoel's favor. What i don't understand though, is why every stage podium gets boniseconds, but ITT podium don't. So if you are only able to outclimb a rival by 2 seconds, you should be rewarded for that, but if you are able to outpace a rival in a TT by 2 seconds, tough luck. Makes no sense.

At this point i don't really think more TT's would favor Evenepoel that much. It's clear that in order to be able to come close to Vingegaard and Pogacar uphill, he should lose a bit more weight, but then the advantage in the TT's would shrink as well. I'm sure he'd be able to take 60s or more out of the other two in a 50k flat TT even when skinny, but in the grand scheme of things, that's likely not going to be a deciding factor.

the thing about 50-60km ITTs is, minutes not seconds are gained. The time differences really start to expand exponentially after 35-40km

We'd probably see Remco do an Indurain performance and dust the field by 2-3 minutes (then likely lost that in a real mountain stage to the other aliens)

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I'm a fan of TTT's because it is an interesting discipline, but not for GC. Imho, they should have TTT's with boniseconds and disregard the actual timedifferences. I don't even think at this point a TTT would be in Evenepoel's favor. What i don't understand though, is why every stage podium gets boniseconds, but ITT podium don't. So if you are only able to outclimb a rival by 2 seconds, you should be rewarded for that, but if you are able to outpace a rival in a TT by 2 seconds, tough luck. Makes no sense.

At this point i don't really think more TT's would favor Evenepoel that much. It's clear that in order to be able to come close to Vingegaard and Pogacar uphill, he should lose a bit more weight, but then the advantage in the TT's would shrink as well. I'm sure he'd be able to take 60s or more out of the other two in a 50k flat TT even when skinny, but in the grand scheme of things, that's likely not going to be a deciding factor.

I mean the obvious answer is bonus seconds, like the most aggressive rider award, are there to incentivize people to attack where they might otherwise role through as a group. It serves no such purpose in an ITT.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

the thing about 50-60km ITTs is, minutes not seconds are gained. The time differences really start to expand exponentially after 35-40km

We'd probably see Remco do an Indurain performance and dust the field by 2-3 minutes (then likely lost that in a real mountain stage to the other aliens)

I think that's optimistic. He gained 45s to Roglic in the '22 Vuelta over 31km. He gained 12s to Pogacar over 25km. Even if the latter TT would have been completely flat, that might increase the gap to 25-30s. There is no way he is going to expand that to 2-3 minutes over 50-60km imho. At least not at his optimal climbing weight.

I mean the obvious answer is bonus seconds, like the most aggressive rider award, are there to incentivize people to attack where they might otherwise role through as a group. It serves no such purpose in an ITT.

I understand that is where it originates from, but shouldn't stage victory be incentive enough? So how exactly does that change anything. People will sprint for victory, be it in the mountains or a flat stage. There are already many more mountainstages than TT's, so climbers are already at an advantage. Now the best mountain sprinter can gain roughly a minute just from boniseconds alone. For instance, Pog already has 52 and there is still a week to go. It's completely out of balance.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Interesting. I'll be honest, I think it would be nuts for him to worry about anything but finishing well in this race. There are huge stages ahead. Hold your podium, finish your goals for the Tour. Then think about the Olympics.

My strong sense, especially with injury in Basque Country, is that he's been aiming his peak for the last week, then hoping to ride that peak into the Olympics.

I should have clarified. He's going to ride defensively, try to win the ITT on stage 21. He just needs to keep things simple to hold on the podium and white jersey,

 

[houtdffan]

I think that's optimistic. He gained 45s to Roglic in the '22 Vuelta over 31km. He gained 12s to Pogacar over 25km. Even if the latter TT would have been completely flat, that might increase the gap to 25-30s. There is no way he is going to expand that to 2-3 minutes over 50-60km imho. At least not at his optimal climbing weight.

Those distances are below where the gaps start to expand exponentially. As we saw in the WTT last year, it's really beyond 35-40km where the gaps just balloon. One you lose it in an ITT, you lose buckets really quickly

 

[red_flanders]

I should have clarified. He's going to ride defensively, try to win the ITT on stage 21. He just needs to keep things simple to hold on the podium and white jersey,

Great, I think we see it the same way.

 

[Pantani_lives]

On Plateau de Beille Evenepoel rode the time I expected of Pogacar... And he lost by two minutes.

If Evenepoel had been born five to eight years earlier he could have won the Tour in 2016-2019. Now he's just facing insane opposition.

He's riding an intelligent Tour. The third place seems to be the best possible result. LeMond and Pantani finished third in their first Tour, so it would put him in good company.

 

[Berniece]

Pog beat Pantanis record up the Plateau de Beille by 3m44seconds after a hot and tough stage!I have not checked the wind on the climb, but it looked like it was side wind the last km’s and relatively quiet the first 12-13k. Anyone here that can confirm the conditions? This stage comes at the end of the second week after very hard racing the last couple of days. I know the bikes has gotten lighter, the teammates are stronger and the nutrition and recovery is more professional. Hate to say it, as i am a big cycling lover, but [[content deleted]]

You can start by taking into account that Pogacar had a train in front of him. Starting with Jorgensen and then Vingegaard. On top of that you have much better bikes and materials. And then the whole sport is more professional with nutritionists and better training methods.

 

[Bolder]

I would say he's performing at/near the high end of the expected range.

Agreed. I was pretty sure he was going to crack on today's stage, at least looking at it ahead of the race. He's managed his energy really, really well. He's definitely helped by not having any decent rivals at the moment.

(on a side note, I cannot believe how out of form so many riders are like S. Yates, hindley,Mas, Gall etc...)

 

[stekelegel]

Nobody is getting caught, no rumours about secret doping, so why the suspicions?
I think the most important factor here is a few generational talents spurring each other on. Remco's current level should have won him the tours of Bernal, Thomas, Wiggins, Sastre, Schleck, Nibali,... He would be close to challenging Froome and Contador. But Pogacar and Vingegard are just so good. The 2021 win of pogacar was so easy. The leap Vinge made in 2022 to beat a prime Pog. And then the ITT in 2023 of Vinge, just wow.
And how does the goat respond, by notching it up another level. Just like Nadal, Federer and Djok challenging each other.
Vinge launching Pogacar offcourse made him even faster. He just did the last 5,6 km?
Add the training, food, science, material,...

 

[peterfin]

You can start by taking into account that Pogacar had a train in front of him. Starting with Jorgensen and then Vingegaard. On top of that you have much better bikes and materials. And then the whole sport is more professional with nutritionists and better training methods.

You can also add that they are all generational talents and that Pog in particular had a season where it all seems to fit. His performance is such an outlier in w/kg vs duration that we should treat it like that: an outlier. We cannot expect that he does this often, maybe it happens never again.

 

[meat puppet]

Nobody is getting caught, no rumours about secret doping, so why the suspicions?
I think the most important factor here is a few generational talents spurring each other on. Remco's current level should have won him the tours of Bernal, Thomas, Wiggins, Sastre, Schleck, Nibali,... He would be close to challenging Froome and Contador. But Pogacar and Vingegard are just so good. The 2021 win of pogacar was so easy. The leap Vinge made in 2022 to beat a prime Pog. And then the ITT in 2023 of Vinge, just wow.
And how does the goat respond, by notching it up another level. Just like Nadal, Federer and Djok challenging each other.
Vinge launching Pogacar offcourse made him even faster. He just did the last 5,6 km?
Add the training, food, science, material,...

Man, evenepoel nuked pantani's historic record yesterday, so he was not close to challenging froome and contador. He blew them out of the water.

When that duo were household names, no one dared to think pantani's records would be eclipsed. At least on this forum.

 

[Wyndbrook]

Agreed. I was pretty sure he was going to crack on today's stage, at least looking at it ahead of the race. He's managed his energy really, really well. He's definitely helped by not having any decent rivals at the moment.

(on a side note, I cannot believe how out of form so many riders are like S. Yates, hindley,Mas, Gall etc...)

They're all totally demoralised.

 

[Berniece]

In an interview with HLN he said that he isn't planning to attack for the 2nd place of Vingegaard if that puts his 3rd place in danger. Get bigger balls Remco! Nonetheless if Pogacar or Vingegaard would have a bad day on the other hand, he will attack them and try something. He hopes for another stage victory but it will be difficult.

He also believes there is still some margin to grow the next few years. Changing training methods to aim purely for a GC, and he might be able to lose some more weight.

“Nog een ritzege zou mooi zijn”: Evenepoel zag zichzelf een van beste klimprestaties ooit leveren, maar blijft gefocust

Remco Evenepoel (24) heeft zich op de tweede rustdag van de Tour de France opmerkelijk ontspannen getoond. Na een herstelritje met zijn ploeg nam hij de tijd voor een interview met VTM NIEUWS-journalist Stijn Vlaeminck. De kopman van Soudal Quick-Step, momenteel derde in het algemeen klassement...

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