Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[stekelegel]

All other riders / countries know they somehow need to get rid of Evenepoel and Pogacar. Waiting for your jump or sprint is not an option for Alaphilippe, Carapas, Yates, Hirschi… I expect attacks from the start from strong outsiders early, trying to get the Slovenians / Belgians to spend domestiques from the start and a chaotic race.
Both might counter this by sending their own outsiders like Van aert to the front themselves causing even more chaos.
Or Pogacar might end up in front with Evenpoel in the lead, and Van Aert behind. does Remco ride and take second for sure, but only a small chance for gold. Or does he think that he already has the worlds and Olympics in the pocket, and get Pogacar to take most of the lead alone?
Or Pogacar gets alone in the lead to early with still a lot of domestiques around to grind him down….
Spain should have some decent riders on that course, Hirschi an the other Swiss riders, the Danes, Italians, French, Carapaz, Yates, Jorgensen…
more possibilities then Lombardia, which I expect to be a simple slugfest between the best 4-5.’’’’

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Or Pogacar might end up in front with Evenpoel in the lead, and Van Aert behind. does Remco ride and take second for sure, but only a small chance for gold. Or does he think that he already has the worlds and Olympics in the pocket, and get Pogacar to take most of the lead alone?
Or Pogacar gets alone in the lead to early with still a lot of domestiques around to grind him down….

If Evenepoel should find himself in the front with Pogacar, the tactics "should" be quite straight forward. Unfortunately, he won't follow the scenarios below, because he wants to go mano a mano even if it means his chances shrink significantly. He wants to beat Pog by being stronger not by being smarter, i fear.

If Van Aert is still in contention, he has the option to play that card (especially in case Van Aert is within a small chasing group instead of a full blown peloton). But I would always bait Pogacar into committing to the break first and then consider leaving him dangling, so that Pog needs to make a choice. Either defend the gap and drag Evenepoel along, or call it quits and see his efforts go to waste.

If Van Aert is no longer in contention, Evenepoel should always commit fully initially, but once the gap is big enough, he should let Pog do most of the work. But again, he won't do that because he'll want to prove he is his equal. Then he still has a chance in case their attack was from far out, and they set a high pace on the flat sections. That should still favor Evenepoel (as opposed to a slower pace), but whether it's enough to wear Pogacar down, is a different matter.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If Evenepoel goes 1v1 to the line with Pogacar he should not find himself in a dark alley with Van Aert for the forseeable future.

Why? You assume Van Aert would otherwise still be in contention?

 

[KoopaCycling]

I should look up the parcours. cause if it has a proper mountain, van aert won't be of note, unless that mountain is in the middle of the race.

I think evenepoel vs pogacar could prove interesting. Pogacar seems to have the slight advantage. Better climber, better sprint (but after 250 km who knows?), and can ride a good TT. But i think that Evenepoel has the slight advantage on false flat/flat. If pogacar fails to immediately close the gap, and it becomes a prolonged chase. I think remco has a solid chance of staying ahead in a 1vs1.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I should look up the parcours. cause if it has a proper mountain, van aert won't be of note, unless that mountain is in the middle of the race.

I think evenepoel vs pogacar could prove interesting. Pogacar seems to have the slight advantage. Better climber, better sprint (but after 250 km who knows?), and can ride a good TT. But i think that Evenepoel has the slight advantage on false flat/flat. If pogacar fails to immediately close the gap, and it becomes a prolonged chase. I think remco has a solid chance of staying ahead in a 1vs1.

I think Van Aert will do a lot better than a lot of "climbers" though. It's a 274k course. Remember the 2020/1 Olympic Road Race.

Here's the profile

 

[stekelegel]

The 2020/21 Van Aert would have been a serious contender here. He probably still is a one of the better riders, but I fear that with both Evenpoel and Pogacar competing, the pace uphill might just be to high to keep the gaps reasonable.
Carapaz will be fancying the climbs, Hirschi,... probably just a bit to much for Wout.
I also think that Evenpoel will work inititally with Pog to create a gap, and then figure out how to beat him. But they also seem to like each other, so I dont think with 10km or more to go, Evenpoel will allready start playing the team game and let POG do all the work.
Probably better for Evenpoel to contest the finale with a small group vs just Pog.

 

[Berniece]

Evenepoel might not ride EC TT, apparently he's not really in form at the moment, and doesn't want to fail there. Wonder why he's riding Britain then.

https://www.hln.be/wielrennen/evenepoel-toch-onzeker-voor-ek-tijdrit-vier-topsprinters-in-selectie-ek-wegrit~a98e5787/

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Wonder why he's riding Britain then.

To get into a bit of form before WC?

 

[Berniece]

To get into a bit of form before WC?

Sure, but EC is also after Britain

 

[Berflamand]

Sure, but EC is also after Britain

A stage race can be used to ride himself into form and I think it wouldn't move the needle whether or not he wins the race, neither in confidence level nor in terms of overall quality of his season.

The EC ITT however is a very specific effort for which he would be the big favorite. If he rides that slightly subpar and fails to win or even make the podium that could damage his confidence and preparation for the WC.

Having said that, obviously I do hope he does ride it and wins both the EC ITT and the Tour of Britain.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Sure, but EC is also after Britain

It comes much sooner, so if his form isn't where it needs to be in Britain, there is no time to get it right before ECC since that is only a few days later. That doesn't mean there isn't enough time before the WCC, which is 2 weeks later.

 

[Berniece]

It comes much sooner, so if his form isn't where it needs to be in Britain, there is no time to get it right before ECC since that is only a few days later. That doesn't mean there isn't enough time before the WCC, which is 2 weeks later.

It's not like the opposition is so crazy at EC TT. If you can't make podium there, I can't see him win 2 weeks later.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It's not like the opposition is so crazy at EC TT. If you can't make podium there, I can't see him win 2 weeks later.

He'd likely podium in that case, but maybe he doesn't want to lose to Ganna, i don't know.

 

[Berflamand]

It's official, he's not riding the ECC TT.

 

[Berniece]

He must be really bad at the moment to withdraw this race (specially in Belgium). I don't know if he is gonna be in top shape for the Worlds. Just 3 and half weeks.

He only had a break for a single week, would find it weird if he lost all his momentum, unless the season is just too long for him

 

[stekelegel]

The Ec was probably on the radar because it's in Belgium. Winning at home is fun, but the bigger picture is obviously the worlds. I think Remco has learned that to be at his very best, he can take no short cuts in his preparation. He is no Pog or Sagan. 100% focus on the big goals.

 

[veganrob]

I heard he gained 10kg.

 

[Didinho]

I guess he wants a better preparation with less travel and more training. He knows his body, hope to see him in shape for the Worlds, it will be needed against Pogi.

 

[Berniece]

I completely agree with you but if he is (by his own words) way off his best shape, I don't know if he will be ready for the Worlds.

I agree, but there might be a different reason for it that we don't know. Or why he thinks he can still get ready for WC RR and not for the EC TT. There are 17 days between EC TT and WC RR.

 

[red_flanders]

I completely agree with you but if he is (by his own words) way off his best shape, I don't know if he will be ready for the Worlds.

Is this a quote from him or just speculation? Just curious if he's actually said he's way off his best shape. Thx.

 

[stekelegel]

if he is still riding the tour of GB we will see pretty quickly how much belly fat he has managed to gain in a month…..

 

[Berniece]

Is this a quote from him or just speculation? Just curious if he's actually said he's way off his best shape. Thx.

From Vanthourenhout, who said Remco finds WC to be more important

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The Ec was probably on the radar because it's in Belgium. Winning at home is fun, but the bigger picture is obviously the worlds. I think Remco has learned that to be at his very best, he can take no short cuts in his preparation. He is no Pog or Sagan. 100% focus on the big goals.

Pog can ride all year long without rest after a peak of form? I guess that's why he showed up at the Olympics. Or why he got dropped in San Sebastian last year, by a peloton of roughly 150 riders. Because he doesn't need downtime and just decides when he wants to win.

I think it's quite normal he (Evenepoel) needs some extra time now. It's been a race against the clock in order to get ready for the TDF, after he was behind schedule due to his crash. So his prep towards the Tour was already pressing, then there was the Tour itself and then he won the OG double only 1-2 weeks later.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Is this a quote from him or just speculation? Just curious if he's actually said he's way off his best shape. Thx.

Vantourenhout said: "It's been a lot already for Remco. The Tour and the Olympics both have been impressing experiences. He more than likely wouldn't be ready in time for the Euros, so it's smarter to look ahead and target other goals."

He didn't say anything about being way off form, too fat, or mentally exhausted in case you were wondering, lol. In a different Sporza article though, Vantourenhout was also quoted (but this was not on camera) saying "After a busy summer, the recovery is taking a bit longer than anticipated. Late September the WCC takes place, which is another important goal for him. So we decided to change the schedule. If he comes (to the ECC ITT) it's with the intention of winning. If that doesn't seem feasible, you have to dare to make some changes.

 

[Extinction]

What "logic" are you referring to? There is no "logic" these are facts.

Pog wasn't at the olympics, but he was in 21 other 250+km races of which he didn't win 16. So there is no reason to assume Pog would simply have won the Olympics in case he showed up. Evenepoel still didn't win all his 250+km races, so there is no reason to claim he will definitely win the Worlds. All this does show, is that Evenepoel's chances increase the longer the race goes.

I'm going on the fact that he's won two Lieges and is coming off the best form (already sensationally high) of his career, in his own worlds. He also beat Remco by over 9 minutes at the Tour, which isn't a knock on Evenepoel, who rode beyond expectations, but the sobering reality. I thus, as I inferred, would not have put the Olympics RR beyond Pogacar. Indeed it would have been a helluva battle. But I can't see Remco dropping the Slovenian the way he did the Frenchman on that slight rise to solo on to victory. Remco had great form coming out of the Tour, so there is no reason to think Pogacar would not have either, unless fatigue quickly set in after the famous double, but I doubt it. I think the logic therefore is that if Pogacar is in fine form, he can crush it in + 250 km races too. And I say this as someone who prefers Remco by a longshot. It's thus a shame we haven't seen the two yet go head to head at Liege. But I seriously could not discount Tadej for the win. 9 minutes at the Tour, anyway you look at it, is a huge difference in performance level.