The 9 minutes were gained on long climbs and partly also on long technical decents. I think that is much less the case at the worlds and Lombardia. Remco's biggest gains vs the competition comes after attacking or even just riding very hard on a hill or false flat and going in TT mode after a 200 km race. So even a Tadey in peak form will have a hard time against Remco in similar form.
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I think it is fair to say that Pogacar is the most explosive rider on intermediate to longer climbs.
Only on shorter, steep sprints Van Der Poel matches him.
In one day races I feel their conditioning will be about equal, unlike in those GT mountain rides.
This makes the Pogacar case simple: make sure no decent rider gets to much of an advantage until the penultimate climb (or maybe even the round before) and then lay down the hammer. And he is so good he can do it 2,3 times. If he get's a gap, it's done. Or if there is a small group, he can beat most of them in the sprint, and 50/50 with WVA and Matthieu.
Remco is no slouch on these type of hills, his famous LBL and San Sebastian wins also came from attacks on the climbs. But his case vs Pogacar will be to follow and probably attack on the rest of the parcour hoping to get a surprise gap.
But to be honest, I think it will need a team effort to beat the 2024 Pog.
Only on shorter, steep sprints Van Der Poel matches him.
In one day races I feel their conditioning will be about equal, unlike in those GT mountain rides.
This makes the Pogacar case simple: make sure no decent rider gets to much of an advantage until the penultimate climb (or maybe even the round before) and then lay down the hammer. And he is so good he can do it 2,3 times. If he get's a gap, it's done. Or if there is a small group, he can beat most of them in the sprint, and 50/50 with WVA and Matthieu.
Remco is no slouch on these type of hills, his famous LBL and San Sebastian wins also came from attacks on the climbs. But his case vs Pogacar will be to follow and probably attack on the rest of the parcour hoping to get a surprise gap.
But to be honest, I think it will need a team effort to beat the 2024 Pog.
I felt it was implied by: "I think Remco has learned that to be at his very best, he can take no short cuts in his preparation. He is no Pog or Sagan. 100% focus on the big goals." By this you clearly imply that Pogacar cán be at his very best when he takes shortcuts in his prep towards big goals.
Evenepoel is coming from a long and full out racing period and a short rest period and would have to face Ganna at the ECC. This can't be compared with Pogacar going well prepared yet not at his very best, to the Giro for instance in order to beat tier 2 GC riders. We've seen Pogacar undercooked at San Sebastian '19, couldn't follow and dropped out. In the ECC RR 2021 Pogi was also dropped and couldn't follow Evenepoel&co, and two weeks later he was nowhere at the WCC, just to resurface at Lombardia and beat Masnada in a sprint. In '22 he got dropped by the peloton at San Sebastian after the TDF.
Evenepoel has also won races overweight and undertrained. But in order to win a big goal against top tier opponents, Pog also can't take shortcuts in his prep. Pog does have an easier time though staying close to his ideal weight and has the skillset to more easily win certain races. But even in top shape, Evenepoel does not have that same skilsset. He does have another though.
Pogacar couldn't drop Van Aert (and about a dozen others, including Mollema, McNulty...) at the OG 2020/2021 on a climb that was tailormade for him. A 250+ race can't be compared to a 150+ stage in a stage race. Van Aert also beats Van der Poel on a Flanders-like circuit 9 times out of 10 when such a stage falls in the middle of a GT. But during spring he can't handle Van der Poel.
It's a 1.9k climb at 6.2% on a 27km loop. How much time can he take on the climb (assuming Evenepoel is in peak shape), that it would be "done" for someone like Evenepoel not able to close it on the remainder of the loop? EDIT: The entire loop has about 3km of climbing, averaging ~6.5%. If Pogacar is certain to get a gap at those climbs, he might be better off waiting for the last lap, since it gives his opponents less time to orchestrate a chase. He doesn't need a long solo in a 250+k race, it only plays into the hands of someone like Evenepoel imho. Again, assuming both are at peak form.
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But still, doesn't bode well in case of preparation.
Ganna is tired. You can't rest and then build up properly in 4 weeks time. So I definitely count him out.
Tarling crashed, we don't know what he has, but enough not to go through with racing. So he needs to recover and then build back up. Him I could still see compete, but still the preparation of anyone able to compete at Evenepoel's best level might not be at their best either. Question still remains if Evenepoel will be at his best.
Maybe the biggest opposition will come from WVA if he gets that super compensation from the Vuelta.
of course Remco will win the ITT
It is to set up the battle of Remco vs Pog
Triple Crown vs Undisputed world road racing championship
It is to set up the battle of Remco vs Pog
Triple Crown vs Undisputed world road racing championship
Remco to Red Bull?
Behind paywall but says decision might come as early as this week.
dnlbenson.substack.com
Behind paywall but says decision might come as early as this week.
Remco Evenepoel transfer still in the works, Tom Pidcock likely to stay at Ineos
Sources indicate that the Belgian rider has been given a deadline by Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe as the team continues to court the double Olympic champion
dnlbenson.substack.com
Interesting that it sounds like it's on Remco's side to decide on where he wants to be rather than whether this is a contract problem. I mean obviously that's going to be part of the calculus in any deal with a rider of his stature, but usually the sticking point is getting out of the current contract.Remco to Red Bull?
Behind paywall but says decision might come as early as this week.
Remco Evenepoel transfer still in the works, Tom Pidcock likely to stay at Ineos
Sources indicate that the Belgian rider has been given a deadline by Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe as the team continues to court the double Olympic champion
I can see where it would be a tough decision. Soudal isn't going to be the place to max out his salary. And while they've done a nice job with the GC team, it's probably not ever going to be UAE or Visma. On the other hand, has BRB shown that they are getting the most out of the talent on hand? The last word hasn't been written on that topic, but so far it's not overly impressive.
I don't think pog or remco escape each other on this parcours. There might be a gap on a hill but it would be closed afterwards. Assuming they don't mark each other out, it would come to a sprint, and I'm open minded about who would take it, given that we've seen some turns of speed from Remco in recent times.
I see what you mean, but just like Soudal will never be like UAE, neither will Bora I believe.
Not a fan of the transferRemco to Red Bull?
Behind paywall but says decision might come as early as this week.
Remco Evenepoel transfer still in the works, Tom Pidcock likely to stay at Ineos
Sources indicate that the Belgian rider has been given a deadline by Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe as the team continues to court the double Olympic champion
The team has announced 3 incoming transfers if i remember correctly. Eenkhoorn, Schachmann and Hayter. We also know of 3 outgoing transfers, Hirt, Masnada and Alaphilippe.
Maybe i'm reading too much into this, but doesn't it seems like the team might be moving away from the "GT/GC" idea? While Masnada and Hirt have turned out to be utterly useless the past years, they were originally brought onboard to transfer the team into a GC team. Alaphilippe leaving couldn't be helped, but he also had his place in a GC team. The only one of the 3 incoming transfers that might possibly have value as part of a GC team that can target a podium at the Tour, is Schachmann, and he isn't exactly the rider you would specifically bring onboard for that reason. I have a hard time imagining Eenkhoorn as a new Van Hooydonk for instance.
So i have to wonder, has a decision been made already?
Maybe i'm reading too much into this, but doesn't it seems like the team might be moving away from the "GT/GC" idea? While Masnada and Hirt have turned out to be utterly useless the past years, they were originally brought onboard to transfer the team into a GC team. Alaphilippe leaving couldn't be helped, but he also had his place in a GC team. The only one of the 3 incoming transfers that might possibly have value as part of a GC team that can target a podium at the Tour, is Schachmann, and he isn't exactly the rider you would specifically bring onboard for that reason. I have a hard time imagining Eenkhoorn as a new Van Hooydonk for instance.
So i have to wonder, has a decision been made already?
Bora/RB may have the money to accomplish the stacked roster that UAE has. There are only so many serious, front line winners to buy. Visma is going to start seeing some aging and if could get down to who can pay and deliver on promises to the riders and sponsors.
What would a Tour team even look like? Primoz would be 2nd string again, I wonder if he's happy with that.
Valentin Paret-Peintre has been signed for 2025 too IIRC
I would be disappointed if he leaves at this point.
A support core team consisting of Landa, Van Wilder, Vervaeke, Cattaneo (very happy that he seems to have found a good level again!), Paret-Peintre and Schachmann (if he can find his old level again) should give enough options to field a strong GC team.
There's also Vansevenant and maybe Lecerf if he continues to develop into a strong climber.
A support core team consisting of Landa, Van Wilder, Vervaeke, Cattaneo (very happy that he seems to have found a good level again!), Paret-Peintre and Schachmann (if he can find his old level again) should give enough options to field a strong GC team.
There's also Vansevenant and maybe Lecerf if he continues to develop into a strong climber.
If i'm Remco i'm doing out my contract with Soudal. And then choose amongst the contract offers. The way i see it, The riders of a GC team are only a part of the whole setup. If Soudal GC setup is good in every other area (nutrition, training, staff, TT optimisation, gear, ... ), then there is no need to leave.
Honestly i don't feel you need supersubs the way they have on Visma and UAE to win a GC. What matters is riders that can keep you safe and on your bike in the flat stages. Help you do okay in TTT. Lead you down a descend.
Beyond that they just need to be good enough to drop you off before a final mountain. The rest is legs and mental fortitude. Sure, it helps when you can send someone ahead, so you can attack on the penultimate mountain and have someone drag you on the flat in between mountains. But you only need that on rare occasions. Plus there are plenty of riders capable of that.
Honestly i don't feel you need supersubs the way they have on Visma and UAE to win a GC. What matters is riders that can keep you safe and on your bike in the flat stages. Help you do okay in TTT. Lead you down a descend.
Beyond that they just need to be good enough to drop you off before a final mountain. The rest is legs and mental fortitude. Sure, it helps when you can send someone ahead, so you can attack on the penultimate mountain and have someone drag you on the flat in between mountains. But you only need that on rare occasions. Plus there are plenty of riders capable of that.
I think that is mostly true. having 3 Adam Yates is super cool, but they can't push the pedals for Pogi or Jonas. But obvisouly it's nice to have a few decent climbers to fetch you water etc and one Super Landa or Kuss if you need to make one big hit on one crucial stage.
If Remco is the strongest rider, then UAE can only use their super doms offensively, but it's suuuuper difficult for Almeida to gain the 6 mins on a long range attack he needs to be a real headache for Remco. Movistar will reel him in, looking at the teams GC.
The good teams like to have one top 3 leader, then a second who can ride top 10 at least (Yates, Almeida, Vlasov for roglic now, what Vinge was for roglic, Landa), and a second super dom / top 15 rider a la Kuss. In 2023 Visma was blessed with several riders performing above expectation, in 2024 it's UAE.
But just like Remco had in the tour with just Landa around, this leaves you very exposed when something happens. Remember Sierra Nevada 2022 were Remco quickly lost all teammates? Give him Landa there and I think Mas gains no more then 15 secs.
This year it was UAE and Visma doing all the work, but there will be stages were lacking teammates will cost you.... And only 1 superdom can leave you very exposed.
I think Remco benefits most of all from having a super train: dictating a medium-hard pace, to prevent attacks or limit time differences, or riding hard in the valley in case of longe range attacks. Even if he is on par with Pog and VIng, winning will be by being almost equal in the mountains and make a gap in the ITT.
Having teammates around you always inspires confidence. If anythings happens to me....
Remco knows this to, and with big 3 (soon to be big 4 with red bull?) have double the budget of SQS, for me it is inevitable he leaves after 2026 if nothing changes....
But just like Remco had in the tour with just Landa around, this leaves you very exposed when something happens. Remember Sierra Nevada 2022 were Remco quickly lost all teammates? Give him Landa there and I think Mas gains no more then 15 secs.
This year it was UAE and Visma doing all the work, but there will be stages were lacking teammates will cost you.... And only 1 superdom can leave you very exposed.
I think Remco benefits most of all from having a super train: dictating a medium-hard pace, to prevent attacks or limit time differences, or riding hard in the valley in case of longe range attacks. Even if he is on par with Pog and VIng, winning will be by being almost equal in the mountains and make a gap in the ITT.
Having teammates around you always inspires confidence. If anythings happens to me....
Remco knows this to, and with big 3 (soon to be big 4 with red bull?) have double the budget of SQS, for me it is inevitable he leaves after 2026 if nothing changes....
Yeah and their setup will probably also reflect the extra budget, so more than likely a RB can offer him better rouleur doms, better climbing doms and better setup.
I strongly believe Lecerf will improve very quickly
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