Where on earth have you read that I stated Pog can just win without prep?
I felt it was implied by: "I think Remco has learned that to be at his very best,
he can take no short cuts in his preparation. He is no Pog or Sagan. 100% focus on the big goals." By this you clearly imply that Pogacar cán be at his very best when he takes shortcuts in his prep towards big goals.
Evenepoel is coming from a long and full out racing period and a short rest period and would have to face Ganna at the ECC. This can't be compared with Pogacar going well prepared yet not at his very best, to the Giro for instance in order to beat tier 2 GC riders. We've seen Pogacar undercooked at San Sebastian '19, couldn't follow and dropped out. In the ECC RR 2021 Pogi was also dropped and couldn't follow Evenepoel&co, and two weeks later he was nowhere at the WCC, just to resurface at Lombardia and beat Masnada in a sprint. In '22 he got dropped by the peloton at San Sebastian after the TDF.
Evenepoel has also won races overweight and undertrained. But in order to win a big goal against top tier opponents, Pog also can't take shortcuts in his prep. Pog does have an easier time though staying close to his ideal weight and has the skillset to more easily win certain races. But even in top shape, Evenepoel does not have that same skilsset. He does have another though.
I think it's a very special case with Pogacar, because he can win munuments and GTs. Technically a 9 minute advantage at the Tour doesn't mean much in a single-day, monument length race, as you say. But I believe in Pog's case, who can win on just about all terrains and in every kind of race, it does show with such form he's gonna be arduous to beat in just about any race he targets after the Tour, because he's no Froome or Vingegaard and actually has a huge proclivity for one day races. Of course, so too does Evenepoel, but when I think of a climber's friendly parcours like the next Worlds or Lombardia, then my mind thinks back to that 9 minute gap at the Tour, most of which was gained on the climbs, and so have to consider Pogacar a level above. Last year he came out of the Tour pretty wrecked, while this year he seemed to float on air in the Nice TT. I thus expect a top Tadej right through his late season objectives.
Pogacar couldn't drop Van Aert (and about a dozen others, including Mollema, McNulty...) at the OG 2020/2021 on a climb that was tailormade for him. A 250+ race can't be compared to a 150+ stage in a stage race. Van Aert also beats Van der Poel on a Flanders-like circuit 9 times out of 10 when such a stage falls in the middle of a GT. But during spring he can't handle Van der Poel.
If he get's a gap, it's done.
It's a 1.9k climb at 6.2% on a 27km loop. How much time can he take on the climb (assuming Evenepoel is in peak shape), that it would be "done" for someone like Evenepoel not able to close it on the remainder of the loop? EDIT: The entire loop has about 3km of climbing, averaging ~6.5%. If Pogacar is certain to get a gap at those climbs, he might be better off waiting for the last lap, since it gives his opponents less time to orchestrate a chase. He doesn't need a long solo in a 250+k race, it only plays into the hands of someone like Evenepoel imho. Again, assuming both are at peak form.