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Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

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Is this a quote from him or just speculation? Just curious if he's actually said he's way off his best shape. Thx.
Vantourenhout said: "It's been a lot already for Remco. The Tour and the Olympics both have been impressing experiences. He more than likely wouldn't be ready in time for the Euros, so it's smarter to look ahead and target other goals."

He didn't say anything about being way off form, too fat, or mentally exhausted in case you were wondering, lol. In a different Sporza article though, Vantourenhout was also quoted (but this was not on camera) saying "After a busy summer, the recovery is taking a bit longer than anticipated. Late September the WCC takes place, which is another important goal for him. So we decided to change the schedule. If he comes (to the ECC ITT) it's with the intention of winning. If that doesn't seem feasible, you have to dare to make some changes.
 
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What "logic" are you referring to? There is no "logic" these are facts.

Pog wasn't at the olympics, but he was in 21 other 250+km races of which he didn't win 16. So there is no reason to assume Pog would simply have won the Olympics in case he showed up. Evenepoel still didn't win all his 250+km races, so there is no reason to claim he will definitely win the Worlds. All this does show, is that Evenepoel's chances increase the longer the race goes.
I'm going on the fact that he's won two Lieges and is coming off the best form (already sensationally high) of his career, in his own worlds. He also beat Remco by over 9 minutes at the Tour, which isn't a knock on Evenepoel, who rode beyond expectations, but the sobering reality. I thus, as I inferred, would not have put the Olympics RR beyond Pogacar. Indeed it would have been a helluva battle. But I can't see Remco dropping the Slovenian the way he did the Frenchman on that slight rise to solo on to victory. Remco had great form coming out of the Tour, so there is no reason to think Pogacar would not have either, unless fatigue quickly set in after the famous double, but I doubt it. I think the logic therefore is that if Pogacar is in fine form, he can crush it in + 250 km races too. And I say this as someone who prefers Remco by a longshot. It's thus a shame we haven't seen the two yet go head to head at Liege. But I seriously could not discount Tadej for the win. 9 minutes at the Tour, anyway you look at it, is a huge difference in performance level.
 
Vantourenhout said: "It's been a lot already for Remco. The Tour and the Olympics both have been impressing experiences. He more than likely wouldn't be ready in time for the Euros, so it's smarter to look ahead and target other goals."

He didn't say anything about being way off form, too fat, or mentally exhausted in case you were wondering, lol. In a different Sporza article though, Vantourenhout was also quoted (but this was not on camera) saying "After a busy summer, the recovery is taking a bit longer than anticipated. Late September the WCC takes place, which is another important goal for him. So we decided to change the schedule. If he comes (to the ECC ITT) it's with the intention of winning. If that doesn't seem feasible, you have to dare to make some changes.
Thanks for the recap, appreciate it.
 
I'm going on the fact that he's won two Lieges and is coming off the best form (already sensationally high) of his career, in his own worlds. He also beat Remco by over 9 minutes at the Tour, which isn't a knock on Evenepoel, who rode beyond expectations, but the sobering reality. I thus, as I inferred, would not have put the Olympics RR beyond Pogacar. Indeed it would have been a helluva battle. But I can't see Remco dropping the Slovenian the way he did the Frenchman on that slight rise to solo on to victory. Remco had great form coming out of the Tour, so there is no reason to think Pogacar would not have either, unless fatigue quickly set in after the famous double, but I doubt it. I think the logic therefore is that if Pogacar is in fine form, he can crush it in + 250 km races too. And I say this as someone who prefers Remco by a longshot. It's thus a shame we haven't seen the two yet go head to head at Liege. But I seriously could not discount Tadej for the win. 9 minutes at the Tour, anyway you look at it, is a huge difference in performance level.
9 minutes at the Tour is meaningless in a 275k one-day race. Last year, at the WCC 2 weeks after the Tour, he also didn't win the WCC. Two years ago, a week after the Tour, he got dropped by the entire peloton in Donostia. And again, Pog has raced 21 one-day races over 250k, and won 5. That means he didn't win 16. Yet people insist on acting as if he would have won every race he didn't start. Specifically in Paris, which was a course without a lot of hard climbs, i don't see how he would have made the difference if he couldn't do it in Glasgow.

PS: No he wouldn't have been dropped on the slight rise like Madouas. He also wouldn't have been allowed in that break like Madouas to begin with. He more than likely would have followed Van der Poel's attack with Van Aert. If due to his presence that break made it to the finish, he'd still lose the sprint. If that break got caught like it did now, chances are the scenario stays the same the moment Evenepoel attacks.
 
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Pog can ride all year long without rest after a peak of form? I guess that's why he showed up at the Olympics. Or why he got dropped in San Sebastian last year, by a peloton of roughly 150 riders. Because he doesn't need downtime and just decides when he wants to win.

I think it's quite normal he (Evenepoel) needs some extra time now. It's been a race against the clock in order to get ready for the TDF, after he was behind schedule due to his crash. So his prep towards the Tour was already pressing, then there was the Tour itself and then he won the OG double only 1-2 weeks later.
Where on earth have you read that I stated Pog can just win without prep? I only said that for me Pogacar requires less effort and time to reach top level. I think he can allready compete and win while still being below his best.
And yes even he decided to skip Paris and focus on worlds and mentionned fatigue.

I only wrote that Evenepoel has learned that he can not do that and now takes the time needed because the past months for sure have taken a tol on his body and mind.

Pog in Paris would not have taken Remco back once he got a decent lead. Maybe with an elite group but they still would have required the flat to come close. At the worlds the race will be harder and I would back the 2024 Pog more to close a gap under a minute. But I dont think he will let Remco out of his sights.
 
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9 minutes at the Tour is meaningless in a 275k one-day race. Last year, at the WCC 2 weeks after the Tour, he also didn't win the WCC. Two years ago, a week after the Tour, he got dropped by the entire peloton in Donostia. And again, Pog has raced 21 one-day races over 250k, and won 5. That means he didn't win 16. Yet people insist on acting as if he would have won every race he didn't start. Specifically in Paris, which was a course without a lot of hard climbs, i don't see how he would have made the difference if he couldn't do it in Glasgow.

PS: No he wouldn't have been dropped on the slight rise like Madouas. He also wouldn't have been allowed in that break like Madouas to begin with. He more than likely would have followed Van der Poel's attack with Van Aert. If due to his presence that break made it to the finish, he'd still lose the sprint. If that break got caught like it did now, chances are the scenario stays the same the moment Evenepoel attacks.
I think it's a very special case with Pogacar, because he can win munuments and GTs. Technically a 9 minute advantage at the Tour doesn't mean much in a single-day, monument length race, as you say. But I believe in Pog's case, who can win on just about all terrains and in every kind of race, it does show with such form he's gonna be arduous to beat in just about any race he targets after the Tour, because he's no Froome or Vingegaard and actually has a huge proclivity for one day races. Of course, so too does Evenepoel, but when I think of a climber's friendly parcours like the next Worlds or Lombardia, then my mind thinks back to that 9 minute gap at the Tour, most of which was gained on the climbs, and so have to consider Pogacar a level above. Last year he came out of the Tour pretty wrecked, while this year he seemed to float on air in the Nice TT. I thus expect a top Tadej right through his late season objectives.
 
I think it's a very special case with Pogacar, because he can win munuments and GTs. Technically a 9 minute advantage at the Tour doesn't mean much in a single-day, monument length race, as you say. But I believe in Pog's case, who can win on just about all terrains and in every kind of race, it does show with such form he's gonna be arduous to beat in just about any race he targets after the Tour, because he's no Froome or Vingegaard and actually has a huge proclivity for one day races. Of course, so too does Evenepoel, but when I think of a climber's friendly parcours like the next Worlds or Lombardia, then my mind thinks back to that 9 minute gap at the Tour, most of which was gained on the climbs, and so have to consider Pogacar a level above. Last year he came out of the Tour pretty wrecked, while this year he seemed to float on air in the Nice TT. I thus expect a top Tadej right through his late season objectives.
The 9 minutes were gained on long climbs and partly also on long technical decents. I think that is much less the case at the worlds and Lombardia. Remco's biggest gains vs the competition comes after attacking or even just riding very hard on a hill or false flat and going in TT mode after a 200 km race. So even a Tadey in peak form will have a hard time against Remco in similar form.
 
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I think it is fair to say that Pogacar is the most explosive rider on intermediate to longer climbs.
Only on shorter, steep sprints Van Der Poel matches him.
In one day races I feel their conditioning will be about equal, unlike in those GT mountain rides.
This makes the Pogacar case simple: make sure no decent rider gets to much of an advantage until the penultimate climb (or maybe even the round before) and then lay down the hammer. And he is so good he can do it 2,3 times. If he get's a gap, it's done. Or if there is a small group, he can beat most of them in the sprint, and 50/50 with WVA and Matthieu.
Remco is no slouch on these type of hills, his famous LBL and San Sebastian wins also came from attacks on the climbs. But his case vs Pogacar will be to follow and probably attack on the rest of the parcour hoping to get a surprise gap.
But to be honest, I think it will need a team effort to beat the 2024 Pog.
 
Where on earth have you read that I stated Pog can just win without prep?
I felt it was implied by: "I think Remco has learned that to be at his very best, he can take no short cuts in his preparation. He is no Pog or Sagan. 100% focus on the big goals." By this you clearly imply that Pogacar cán be at his very best when he takes shortcuts in his prep towards big goals.

Evenepoel is coming from a long and full out racing period and a short rest period and would have to face Ganna at the ECC. This can't be compared with Pogacar going well prepared yet not at his very best, to the Giro for instance in order to beat tier 2 GC riders. We've seen Pogacar undercooked at San Sebastian '19, couldn't follow and dropped out. In the ECC RR 2021 Pogi was also dropped and couldn't follow Evenepoel&co, and two weeks later he was nowhere at the WCC, just to resurface at Lombardia and beat Masnada in a sprint. In '22 he got dropped by the peloton at San Sebastian after the TDF.

Evenepoel has also won races overweight and undertrained. But in order to win a big goal against top tier opponents, Pog also can't take shortcuts in his prep. Pog does have an easier time though staying close to his ideal weight and has the skillset to more easily win certain races. But even in top shape, Evenepoel does not have that same skilsset. He does have another though.

I think it's a very special case with Pogacar, because he can win munuments and GTs. Technically a 9 minute advantage at the Tour doesn't mean much in a single-day, monument length race, as you say. But I believe in Pog's case, who can win on just about all terrains and in every kind of race, it does show with such form he's gonna be arduous to beat in just about any race he targets after the Tour, because he's no Froome or Vingegaard and actually has a huge proclivity for one day races. Of course, so too does Evenepoel, but when I think of a climber's friendly parcours like the next Worlds or Lombardia, then my mind thinks back to that 9 minute gap at the Tour, most of which was gained on the climbs, and so have to consider Pogacar a level above. Last year he came out of the Tour pretty wrecked, while this year he seemed to float on air in the Nice TT. I thus expect a top Tadej right through his late season objectives.
Pogacar couldn't drop Van Aert (and about a dozen others, including Mollema, McNulty...) at the OG 2020/2021 on a climb that was tailormade for him. A 250+ race can't be compared to a 150+ stage in a stage race. Van Aert also beats Van der Poel on a Flanders-like circuit 9 times out of 10 when such a stage falls in the middle of a GT. But during spring he can't handle Van der Poel.

If he get's a gap, it's done.
It's a 1.9k climb at 6.2% on a 27km loop. How much time can he take on the climb (assuming Evenepoel is in peak shape), that it would be "done" for someone like Evenepoel not able to close it on the remainder of the loop? EDIT: The entire loop has about 3km of climbing, averaging ~6.5%. If Pogacar is certain to get a gap at those climbs, he might be better off waiting for the last lap, since it gives his opponents less time to orchestrate a chase. He doesn't need a long solo in a 250+k race, it only plays into the hands of someone like Evenepoel imho. Again, assuming both are at peak form.
 
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Still a month away.
But still, doesn't bode well in case of preparation.

Ganna is tired. You can't rest and then build up properly in 4 weeks time. So I definitely count him out.

Tarling crashed, we don't know what he has, but enough not to go through with racing. So he needs to recover and then build back up. Him I could still see compete, but still the preparation of anyone able to compete at Evenepoel's best level might not be at their best either. Question still remains if Evenepoel will be at his best.

Maybe the biggest opposition will come from WVA if he gets that super compensation from the Vuelta.
 
Remco to Red Bull?

Behind paywall but says decision might come as early as this week.

Interesting that it sounds like it's on Remco's side to decide on where he wants to be rather than whether this is a contract problem. I mean obviously that's going to be part of the calculus in any deal with a rider of his stature, but usually the sticking point is getting out of the current contract.

I can see where it would be a tough decision. Soudal isn't going to be the place to max out his salary. And while they've done a nice job with the GC team, it's probably not ever going to be UAE or Visma. On the other hand, has BRB shown that they are getting the most out of the talent on hand? The last word hasn't been written on that topic, but so far it's not overly impressive.
 
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But his case vs Pogacar will be to follow and probably attack on the rest of the parcour hoping to get a surprise gap.
But to be honest, I think it will need a team effort to beat the 2024 Pog.
I don't think pog or remco escape each other on this parcours. There might be a gap on a hill but it would be closed afterwards. Assuming they don't mark each other out, it would come to a sprint, and I'm open minded about who would take it, given that we've seen some turns of speed from Remco in recent times.
 
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Interesting that it sounds like it's on Remco's side to decide on where he wants to be rather than whether this is a contract problem. I mean obviously that's going to be part of the calculus in any deal with a rider of his stature, but usually the sticking point is getting out of the current contract.

I can see where it would be a tough decision. Soudal isn't going to be the place to max out his salary. And while they've done a nice job with the GC team, it's probably not ever going to be UAE or Visma. On the other hand, has BRB shown that they are getting the most out of the talent on hand? The last word hasn't been written on that topic, but so far it's not overly impressive.
I see what you mean, but just like Soudal will never be like UAE, neither will Bora I believe.
 
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The team has announced 3 incoming transfers if i remember correctly. Eenkhoorn, Schachmann and Hayter. We also know of 3 outgoing transfers, Hirt, Masnada and Alaphilippe.

Maybe i'm reading too much into this, but doesn't it seems like the team might be moving away from the "GT/GC" idea? While Masnada and Hirt have turned out to be utterly useless the past years, they were originally brought onboard to transfer the team into a GC team. Alaphilippe leaving couldn't be helped, but he also had his place in a GC team. The only one of the 3 incoming transfers that might possibly have value as part of a GC team that can target a podium at the Tour, is Schachmann, and he isn't exactly the rider you would specifically bring onboard for that reason. I have a hard time imagining Eenkhoorn as a new Van Hooydonk for instance.

So i have to wonder, has a decision been made already?
 
The team has announced 3 incoming transfers if i remember correctly. Eenkhoorn, Schachmann and Hayter. We also know of 3 outgoing transfers, Hirt, Masnada and Alaphilippe.

Maybe i'm reading too much into this, but doesn't it seems like the team might be moving away from the "GT/GC" idea? While Masnada and Hirt have turned out to be utterly useless the past years, they were originally brought onboard to transfer the team into a GC team. Alaphilippe leaving couldn't be helped, but he also had his place in a GC team. The only one of the 3 incoming transfers that might possibly have value as part of a GC team that can target a podium at the Tour, is Schachmann, and he isn't exactly the rider you would specifically bring onboard for that reason. I have a hard time imagining Eenkhoorn as a new Van Hooydonk for instance.

So i have to wonder, has a decision been made already?
Valentin Paret-Peintre has been signed for 2025 too IIRC