Okay the 3 assumptions I'm talking about:
- Alaphilippe as high mountain domestique is a good idea. Which it really isn't. He was struggling to hang on for most of the Tour and he wouldn't be able to even do much work for Evenepoel in the best case, wasting one of the best stagehunters on maybe a few seconds here and there.
- Egan Bernal is only good on high altitude. He wins as much on low altitude as on high altitude, and he was really just not great in the 2nd week of the Tour last year.
- Evenepoel would be the standout favorite for the Tour. I wouldn't go that far. He'd be one of the favorites to win, but with him never having done a GT before I'm not sure why I'd go for the Tour at a first GT attempt, when the Giro suits him many times better and has a weaker field.
My rebuttals
1. Yes, Alap was struggling. However, he may be able to give that 3-4 good km. He'd not have to worry about conserving energy and hanging on like he did last year
2. Never said Bernal was bad at low elevations. He just may be unbeatable at the very high altitudes. Thus, Evenepoel has a chance given the lower elevations of this route.
3. Yes, the giro is better this year for Evenepoel with the TTs. No question about it. But, given his form, he'd have a real chance at this tour. As good as he is, he deserves to have the team dedicated to him