Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Actually and even within this Tour you can see his peak and average efforts. JV has made it very easy on him based on his ability to surf the pack. Today's TT you saw full commitment, likely because it was so short and he felt his major competition for Stage 14 would do the same. He goes into some races below peak but has enough to strategically game the other guys. Last year's Giro was a case in point where he was serious until everyone gave up and let him go on every surge. It became a training camp.
Comparing him to early season Remco when fan fever was hottest is a great example. Remco was good but very underraced due to recovery training. That's exploitable and you may not see actual peak efforts out of either of those riders. When it happens; you know pretty quickly who has overcommitted.
MvP schooled Tadej in PR after Teddy crashed by making him work to get closer, then increasing the gap where he knew he could make the biggest difference at that late point in the race. He was much stronger than TP and used his fitness appropriately. He walks from cyclocross WC to Tour stage winner with the same ease as Pogacar.

Pogacar is definitely the most complete trained rider for this Tour. Is it all real? I don't know and few do.

I just made the post so I could use the words "orgasm" and "edging" in relation to Pog.

 

[Red Rick]

Maybe there is some overestimation but if it's sistematic the bulk of the argument still stands, especially considering his best performance came in arguably the hardest stage in the Tour.
One of my friends told me he was really sweating, so maybe he suffered from the heat, but I doubt that's the full story

Highest number on hardest stage >> almost guaranteed overestimate/perfect conditions/wasn't that hard.

He's just fatigued and getting worse, which is just a lack of base training.

 

[jmdirt]

I would find it very questionable if Evenepoel would take such a step suddenly

If he has a GREAT winter without injury or illness, and stays near his race weight as well, I would not be surprised to see a definite step.

 

[jmdirt]

He can hope that his legs come around, but so many things have to be battering him emotionally that may be hard to overcome.

JV catching him was a huge dagger through his psyche.

 

[Sciatic]

People always want to close down Remco GT ambitions.
Meanwhile he was third just last year. Where is Carlos Rodriguez, where is Mas, where are so many others...

I get it. He can do other stuff really good as well.
But there is rly no need for him to pick and choose. He can do both.
It's how a cycling season has always been set up.

Also, sponsors have a say in what programs riders choose, and most sponsors want their best rider at Le Tour.

 

[P4rthen0n]

Remco wasn't great in Fleche Wallone.
He wasn't great in the Tour de Romandie.
He wasn't great in the Dauphiné.
And now he hasn't been great in the Tour de France.

The writing was on the wall, but we kept hoping he would somehow get back to TdF 2024 form.

Tomorrow is gonna be hell for him. I really really hope he finishes alongside the best of the non-mutants.

 

[Red Rick]

Remco wasn't great in Fleche Wallone.
He wasn't great in the Tour de Romandie.
He wasn't great in the Dauphiné.
And now he hasn't been great in the Tour de France.

The writing was on the wall, but we kept hoping he would somehow get back to TdF 2024 form.

Tomorrow is gonna be hell for him. I really really hope he finish alongside with the best of the non-mutants.

I think there has been optimism mainly because the Dauphine ITT was really good, and because he wasn't much better in the Dauphine last year before having his best Grand Tour. But to me it looks to be downhill from here. While he's in 3rd, I'm basically already writing him off for the podium.

 

[Berniece]

I think there has been optimism mainly because the Dauphine ITT was really good, and because he wasn't much better in the Dauphine last year before having his best Grand Tour. But to me it looks to be downhill from here. While he's in 3rd, I'm basically already writing him off for the podium.

He's going to crack tomorrow, and win a stage later in the TDF, and finish top 15 in GC.

 

[Red Rick]

He's going to crack tomorrow, and win a stage later in the TDF, and finish top 15 in GC.

Maybe. I don't really get 2023 Vuelta vibes though. And there's like 2 good breakaway opportunities for a guy like him.

 

[Psycat]

Trouble is he will never beat Vingegaard or Pogacar, so you do have to question whether the GT focus makes that much sense...

Doesn't make much sense for anybody not named Pogacar if you view it in that context. He could probably contend for a GT they are not present for so why not just dodge them? Everyone relevant should dodge Pogacar.

 

[Berniece]

Maybe. I don't really get 2023 Vuelta vibes though. And there's like 2 good breakaway opportunities for a guy like him.

But does he care about finishing behind Vauqelin every stage? Think he rather drops back 1 stage and then goes for a win later.

 

[Oldman]

I just made the post so I could use the words "orgasm" and "edging" in relation to Pog.

I got a ban for making poopy humor. Well done!

 

[Oldman]

Highest number on hardest stage >> almost guaranteed overestimate/perfect conditions/wasn't that hard.

He's just fatigued and getting worse, which is just a lack of base training.

We all hoped that effect wouldn't show up but it's as you said. That's a problem when you carry the entire sponsor hopes for the team. That doesn't help on the pressure front.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Maybe. I don't really get 2023 Vuelta vibes though. And there's like 2 good breakaway opportunities for a guy like him.

In the 2023 Vuelta he showed before the crack that he could win a Mountain top finish, nothing to suggest that so far this Tour. But even without the best climbing leg he could win both stage 16 and 20 from a break if he loses 15-20 minutes on purpose tomorrow.

 

[Andre]

He needs to change something radically to come out of this GT rut he has been in. The guy is phenomenally good and it is not coming out in GT’s. Like many have hinted before me, I think the change that he needs will come with the change of teams. Everything gets a fresh start and it could be make the positive difference for the rest of his career. At Quickstep I am afraid he will stay in the rut. I don’t see him changing his direction and focus only on classics. He has the right ingredients for GT’s but lacks the team and the consistency. Of course the effect of the bad luck he has had has not helped at all. Still the change of teams will be the crucial step in his career he needs. He has to leave the QS nest he grew up in and challenge himself in a new environment with new teammates and new staff.

changing teams will make no difference as long as he keeps crashing and having mishaps. He's just not able to improve as long as he has to recuperate from crashing. It's like Logic is you friend said and also that Marx guy. Lomardia, Itzulia, and the Car door accident have taken its toll...he has come back from each one but it has impeded his natural progress. Go Remco Go!

 

[scribers]

What if he just focuses on being a one day racer and TT specialist?

 

[Red Rick]

What if he just focuses on being a one day racer and TT specialist?

Waste of time.

Evenepoel does not need to choose either/or. He needs to choose the right targets within.

 

[scribers]

It he’s mostly wished for and prepared to be a GT winner until now

But he seems to better with one day races.

 

[Andre]

What if he just focuses on being a one day racer and TT specialist?

he might then be more successful, but the same problem would still apply to all the time he has missed improving due to crashes

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Bora transfer and the continued Roglification of Remco confirmed: "It was a really bad day and a really bad performance for myself, and all the rest at this moment, I really don't care." Cue the media shitstorm?

 

[FroomeWagon]

Odds for podium in Paris:

Pogachar 1 to 50
Vinge 1 to 50
Lipovitz 2 to 5
Roglic 11 to 4
Remco 4 to 1 (~20% chance)
Olney 9 to 2

 

[Kwaremonster]

He's going to crack tomorrow, and win a stage later in the TDF, and finish top 15 in GC.

Him letting go of gc would potentially be bad news for MvdP and the others who target classics style stages.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Losing time on purpose would be terribly stupid, for the following reasons:

• He's third with only eight days to go. It's too late to change his strategy.
• Even if he loses a chunk of time, he can still finish between fourth and tenth. You don't just throw away a top 10 place. Otherwise fewer than ten riders would be riding for the top 10, which would be ridiculous.
• Other riders can get a bad day in the third week.
• Losing time doesn't guarantee to win a stage later.
• He's already got a stage win.

He'll just have to hang on and fight to limit the damage. Hopefully the Tourmalet will be taken quietly by the GC riders, otherwise it will be a tough day. If he gets through today without too much time loss, a decent place of honor remains possible. Finishing seventh with a stage win would be nothing to be ashamed of.

So why is he having difficulties? The autumn crash is one part of the explanation. Another problem is that he hasn't been reconnoitering the mountain stages. Computer simulations aren't the same as actually being there. Next year he'll need a different preparation if he wants to improve his GC chances.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Next year he'll need a different preparation if he wants to improve his GC chances.

And a different DS and a different coach / performance manager

 

[Berniece]

• He's third with only eight days to go. It's too late to change his strategy.

Why? More than enough stages he can make a move and go for the win if he isn’t a GC threat