Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

Page 168 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Let's be honest: nobody knows how Evenepoel will fare. Has the balance in his body been fully restored ? Is he just good or is he in top condition ? Was he able to simulate competition rhythm the last weeks ? Can he ride in the peloton already ? Has he already sufficient agility in the descents ? Or does the fear return at the first dangerous descent ? Can he handle tough mountain rides with a final climb ? Can he handle a three-week stage race? If any of those conditions are not met, Evenepoel will not win the Giro.
But if he already meets some of those conditions, Evenepoel could already show beautiful things.
The question is : can his team leaders restrain him sufficiently when he falls short in certain skills.
 
Mar 16, 2021
41
54
180
I guess you could say, from a statistical point of view, you could argue there is 1 in 3 chances Remco comes back as strong as before. In that case he has a 100% chance of winning. If he does not come back as strong as he was before, the other 2 out of 3 chances are devided between Bernal, Yates, Vlasov, Carthy... and as such, Remco has the biggest chance to win... if you know what i mean. So statistically you could argue that he has a bigger chance to win than Bernal or Yates, even if the chance that he doesn't even make the top 20, is also a lot bigger than that of Bernal or Yates. Not sure this is the reasoning behind his decision, but it could be. How anyone would divide the odds is another thing ofcourse.
Logic might be your friend, but maths isn't.
 
Last edited:
Apr 14, 2021
23
31
130
Okay, he doesn't have a 100% chance of winning even if at full strength...
Of course 100% is impossible but this thread got me thinking that the chance of victory for really dominant riders is probably higher than we would think. If we take Indurain for instance, the chance for his victory in one of his winning years must have been very high for him to have achieved 5 years in a row. Or he was extremely lucky. Not saying that Remco is anywhere near that level of course - just thinking from a statistical point of view that Indurain probably had 80%-90% chance of TDF victory in his heyday...
 
Of course 100% is impossible but this thread got me thinking that the chance of victory for really dominant riders is probably higher than we would think. If we take Indurain for instance, the chance for his victory in one of his winning years must have been very high for him to have achieved 5 years in a row. Or he was extremely lucky. Not saying that Remco is anywhere near that level of course - just thinking from a statistical point of view that Indurain probably had 80%-90% chance of TDF victory in his heyday...
Sure, the same with Armstrong. But still, crashes and misfortune are still a factor which makes 100 % impossible.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
You’d have to think he’s missing some « base » form after all these months + competition rythme. Coming back in competition after such a long time is pretty confronting for your body. A few (ex)pro’s recently attested to that.
It did look like he was hurting himself in the Ardennes these last 2 weeks.
A Remco at about 80% I reckon. A lot will depend on how he comes through the first week.
Either you falter because of the lack of competition and training or you grow during the race. The latter could be in his favor as opposed to other riders who might not be as « fresh ».
 
Apr 12, 2017
221
22
3,080
What's the general mood in belgian sports news, cautious/cautiously optimistic/very optimistic?
Imho the general mood is very cautious. I see a lot of articles stating the cautious "we'll see, day by day".
There is hope, there is some attention for Remco going to the Giro, but it's more focused on "finally in the peloton again" and not so much on how he will do in the GC.

That's my impression at least. I'm sure that will change lightning fast from the moment he starts showing signs of his former strength.
 
Of course 100% is impossible but this thread got me thinking that the chance of victory for really dominant riders is probably higher than we would think. If we take Indurain for instance, the chance for his victory in one of his winning years must have been very high for him to have achieved 5 years in a row. Or he was extremely lucky. Not saying that Remco is anywhere near that level of course - just thinking from a statistical point of view that Indurain probably had 80%-90% chance of TDF victory in his heyday...
And what was his probability of winning before the 1996 Tour? The selection bias is obvious here.
 
Double up, or triple up, it's going to be different for Remco for sure. Good races he's done earlier, but level is so much higher in every way for the Giro. Everybody's veins popping for reals now. But I bet old gits are just a bit nervous too, they've seen what he can do and probably thinking if he has same kind of week in week out stamina that Bernal and Pogi had when they entered GT's.
 
And what was his probability of winning before the 1996 Tour? The selection bias is obvious here.
Indeed, victory is never 100%, obviously an exaggeration but it can be close enough to be a meaningless distinction.

In recent times think Contador Giro 2011 (ironic example of course because it was deleted), Froome Tour 2016, who would've seriously doubted their win before the race without fan-coloured glasses?
 
Logic might be your friend, but maths isn't.
Clearly my math is better than your reading comprehension.
Okay, he doesn't have a 100% chance of winning even if at full strength...
I was simply explaining how his reasoning could have been. I'm not claiming anything. Simply saying the guy might have figured that if Remco is back in business, he has a huge chance. And that overal, that might be a bigger chance than other favorites have.
Ok I can see you are very excited about all that so I’ll step carefully.

You claim he is better than MvDP at what he does - but how many times has he actually beaten him in a direct fight? And how many times has he beaten WvA? Talk is cheap - I wanna see this guy beating MvDP and WvA, those two being all sweaty and desperate because they just couldn’t follow… and once he does that multiple times, then we can talk about him being better than them at what they do. Results-wise It could even be debated that WvA perhaps has better stage race credentials currently. His 2nd in Tirreno at that level and against such competition is worth more than any stage race Remco ever won.

What I’m trying to say is that for Remco sure, the potential is there, there’s a certain chance he wins (even you stopped at 33). But find a rationale for putting him up as a top favourite, you will not. It’s hype and it’s almost a bit insulting to all the GT specialists out there. Kind of like saying “you guys suck so much that I’m gonna put my money on an a guy that’s never raced this type of race before to beat you all”, isn’t it?

Any expert should account for all the factors and objectively include them in his evaluation. Inexperience, unknown quantity, injuries, absence from racing…. Of course, one needs to go against the odds if he wants to be spectacularly right… so IMO this guy doesn’t care about honest evaluation as much as he fancies the prospect of being spectacularly right.
True. I also don't believe van Aert and van der Poel are better sprinters than Evenepoel. They might win a sprint against him in a reduced group one day, but i'm talking about a real bunch sprint here. I mean, i haven't seen it yet. I'll believe it when they can beat Remco when all of them sprint in a good old fashioned mass sprint.

Sorry for the sarcasm, but reading your post, the only thing i can agree on is that we/people should be careful what to expect in the Giro. Other than that, your post reads like someone who hasn't seen him race in Poland, Burgos, San Sebastian, Adriatica Ionica, Baloise Belgium Tour, Tour of Germany, San Juan, Algarve or simply trying to deny what's right in front of you.
 
Last edited:
What's the general mood in belgian sports news, cautious/cautiously optimistic/very optimistic?
Moderately optimistic. They think he will not play fully in the beginning. If he survizes the first week well, there may be more. But in general. If he had not crashed in Lombardia, the Belgian press had the feeling Evenepoel would have won, both Lombardia and the Giro last season. But this time, given the circumstances, he is by no means the favorite of the Belgian press and most of the neutral Belgian cycling enthusiasts. But they hope he will surprise anyway.
 
Clearly my math is better than your reading comprehension.

I was simply explaining how his reasoning could have been. I'm not claiming anything. Simply saying the guy might have figured that if Remco is back in business, he has a huge chance. And that overal, that might be a bigger chance than other favorites have.

True. I also don't believe van Aert and van der Poel are better sprinters than Evenepoel. They might win a sprint against him in a reduced group one day, but i'm talking about a real bunch sprint here. I mean, i haven't seen it yet. I'll believe it when they can beat Remco when all of them sprint in a good old fashioned mass sprint.
Excuse me ? Logic etc doesn't believe Van Aert and Van der Poel are better sprinters than Evenpoel. This man is living on another planet, for sure. Both in a bunch sprint and in a small group sprint, Van Aert and VdPoel are way faster and more explosive. Even on an uphill finish. Unless on a (long) wall, as in Huy, in the Flèche . Of course, Evenepoel would be the better on a long climb.
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
Excuse me ? Logic etc doesn't believe Van Aert and Van der Poel are better sprinters than Evenpoel. This man is living on another planet, for sure. Both in a bunch sprint and in a small group sprint, Van Aert and VdPoel are way faster and more explosive. Even on an uphill finish. Unless on a (long) wall, as in Huy, in the Flèche . Of course, Evenepoel would be the better on a long climb.
He's not serious, he's jokingly claiming there's no proof VdP or VA would beat him in a mass sprint because that scenario hasn't happend yet.
 
Reactions: Ulfhednar

ASK THE COMMUNITY