Logic might be your friend, but maths isn't.
Last edited:
- Apr 14, 2021
- 1,598
- 3,010
- 10,180
Of course 100% is impossible but this thread got me thinking that the chance of victory for really dominant riders is probably higher than we would think. If we take Indurain for instance, the chance for his victory in one of his winning years must have been very high for him to have achieved 5 years in a row. Or he was extremely lucky. Not saying that Remco is anywhere near that level of course - just thinking from a statistical point of view that Indurain probably had 80%-90% chance of TDF victory in his heyday...
- May 9, 2010
- 11,069
- 2,540
- 28,180
We can all discuss, guess and predict how he will do at the Giro, but let's be real, of course he's gonna smoke the field.
- Nov 16, 2013
- 26,686
- 27,788
- 28,180
Sure, the same with Armstrong. But still, crashes and misfortune are still a factor which makes 100 % impossible.
I think he will be in decent shape. You can do a lot in training these days. Different ways to train. Measuring numbers. Tests and so on to see where you are at. I hope they wouldnt start him if it wasnt looking good.
Everything else and how it will go is just unknown. Dont know until the racing starts.
Everything else and how it will go is just unknown. Dont know until the racing starts.
- Jul 10, 2014
- 14,990
- 25,986
- 28,180
Last edited:
You’d have to think he’s missing some « base » form after all these months + competition rythme. Coming back in competition after such a long time is pretty confronting for your body. A few (ex)pro’s recently attested to that.
It did look like he was hurting himself in the Ardennes these last 2 weeks.
A Remco at about 80% I reckon. A lot will depend on how he comes through the first week.
Either you falter because of the lack of competition and training or you grow during the race. The latter could be in his favor as opposed to other riders who might not be as « fresh ».
It did look like he was hurting himself in the Ardennes these last 2 weeks.
A Remco at about 80% I reckon. A lot will depend on how he comes through the first week.
Either you falter because of the lack of competition and training or you grow during the race. The latter could be in his favor as opposed to other riders who might not be as « fresh ».
- Jul 7, 2013
- 8,048
- 14,899
- 23,180
he meant conditional probability
P(Remco in top form)=0.333
P(Remco's victory | Remco in top form)=1
P(other cyclist victory)=1-P(Remco in top form) (assuming Remco has no chance for victory if not in top form)
- Apr 12, 2017
- 485
- 477
- 10,380
Imho the general mood is very cautious. I see a lot of articles stating the cautious "we'll see, day by day".
There is hope, there is some attention for Remco going to the Giro, but it's more focused on "finally in the peloton again" and not so much on how he will do in the GC.
That's my impression at least. I'm sure that will change lightning fast from the moment he starts showing signs of his former strength.
- Apr 30, 2011
- 47,062
- 29,662
- 28,180
And what was his probability of winning before the 1996 Tour? The selection bias is obvious here.
- Jun 4, 2009
- 1,371
- 856
- 12,680
Double up, or triple up, it's going to be different for Remco for sure. Good races he's done earlier, but level is so much higher in every way for the Giro. Everybody's veins popping for reals now. But I bet old gits are just a bit nervous too, they've seen what he can do and probably thinking if he has same kind of week in week out stamina that Bernal and Pogi had when they entered GT's.
- Apr 13, 2021
- 7,444
- 19,481
- 17,180
- Feb 1, 2011
- 9,403
- 2,275
- 20,680
Indeed, victory is never 100%, obviously an exaggeration but it can be close enough to be a meaningless distinction.
In recent times think Contador Giro 2011 (ironic example of course because it was deleted), Froome Tour 2016, who would've seriously doubted their win before the race without fan-coloured glasses?
Bonimenier
BANNED
- Apr 1, 2019
- 4,291
- 5,930
- 16,180
More chance of finishing top 10, maybe. But Masnada won't win the Giro. Remco could.
Not his biggest fan, but I think it'll be a better race with him in it, even if we see a "normal" neo-pro GT where he only shows up on a few days.
- Jun 7, 2011
- 20,975
- 20,308
- 28,180
Clearly my math is better than your reading comprehension.
I was simply explaining how his reasoning could have been. I'm not claiming anything. Simply saying the guy might have figured that if Remco is back in business, he has a huge chance. And that overal, that might be a bigger chance than other favorites have.
True. I also don't believe van Aert and van der Poel are better sprinters than Evenepoel. They might win a sprint against him in a reduced group one day, but i'm talking about a real bunch sprint here. I mean, i haven't seen it yet. I'll believe it when they can beat Remco when all of them sprint in a good old fashioned mass sprint.
Sorry for the sarcasm, but reading your post, the only thing i can agree on is that we/people should be careful what to expect in the Giro. Other than that, your post reads like someone who hasn't seen him race in Poland, Burgos, San Sebastian, Adriatica Ionica, Baloise Belgium Tour, Tour of Germany, San Juan, Algarve or simply trying to deny what's right in front of you.
Last edited:
- Mar 29, 2012
- 3,641
- 5,392
- 19,180
Does he need to ride in the peloton? Most stages are OK for Remco's trademark solo wins, no?
Zoef-Lightning
BANNED
- Sep 21, 2020
- 550
- 379
- 4,280
Moderately optimistic. They think he will not play fully in the beginning. If he survizes the first week well, there may be more. But in general. If he had not crashed in Lombardia, the Belgian press had the feeling Evenepoel would have won, both Lombardia and the Giro last season. But this time, given the circumstances, he is by no means the favorite of the Belgian press and most of the neutral Belgian cycling enthusiasts. But they hope he will surprise anyway.
Zoef-Lightning
BANNED
- Sep 21, 2020
- 550
- 379
- 4,280
Excuse me ? Logic etc doesn't believe Van Aert and Van der Poel are better sprinters than Evenpoel. This man is living on another planet, for sure. Both in a bunch sprint and in a small group sprint, Van Aert and VdPoel are way faster and more explosive. Even on an uphill finish. Unless on a (long) wall, as in Huy, in the Flèche . Of course, Evenepoel would be the better on a long climb.
- Apr 13, 2021
- 7,444
- 19,481
- 17,180
- Feb 1, 2011
- 9,403
- 2,275
- 20,680
He's not serious, he's jokingly claiming there's no proof VdP or VA would beat him in a mass sprint because that scenario hasn't happend yet.
- Jun 7, 2011
- 20,975
- 20,308
- 28,180
Renaat Schotte is doing his utter most "stinky" best to keep his claim alive that Remco "once" told him that he would not be riding for GC, and that he believes him when he said he would work for Almeida. The fact that Almeida might very well leave the team in a few months and still hasn't signed a contract extension hasn't crossed his mind, or that we are now 8 weeks later, and a lot in Evenepoel's prep and form might have changed. Or simply the fact that his teammates so far are contradicting that, and two team directors have said Remco has a free role and can see how far he gets.
So there is the part of the press that keeps quoting this old interview by Schotte (since it was only published a week or so ago, while actually 2 months old), and there is the part of the press that uses their brain and think Remco will indeed try to find out how far he can go. Nobody is saying he can or is going to win, but you can feel the anticipation. De Cauwer, basically the Flemish godfather of cycling, said he feels he can podium from the info he's been fed.
Damn.
TRENDING THREADS
-
World Championship 2025: Men’s RR, September 28- Started by Berniece
- Replies: 2K
-
Il Lombardia 2025, monument, October 11
- Started by Krzysztof_O
- Replies: 792
-
Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread- Started by DNP-Old
- Replies: 35K
-
Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread- Started by Lequack
- Replies: 41K
-
European Championship 2025: Men’s RR, October 5- Started by Berniece
- Replies: 854
-
Teams & Riders The Great Big Cycling Transfers, Extensions, and Rumours Thread- Started by RedheadDane
- Replies: 13K
-
World Championship 2025: Men’s ITT, September 21- Started by Berniece
- Replies: 942
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram