Of course, but that's an open question regardless even with perfect preparation, no injury and no time off though.yeah I know he is Evenepoel and such, but winning with no racing and at his age seems unlikely.
Pogacar was third in his first Vuelta, but that was a totally different story.
But I am curious to see how he will do in the mountain stages. His numbers might be impressive now on training, but you cannot simulate a 3-week course. He has never done this kind of race. The pressure is high and will his recovery be good enough during the race?
But that question should finally (!) get an answer, either fully, or partially. Even if he's not yet able to compete for the maglia rosa, I think we should get a better picture of his regeneration/consistency in a 3 week race.
I would say best case scenario: Domination from stage 1 to stage 21, no really bad days, winning the TTs and another 2-3 wins on regular stages
still good: clear improvements from week to week, losing a little time on some mountain stages, but generally hanging on, top10 result in the end, wins stage21 TT, maybe another stage somewhere, no terrible day and no more than one or two bad ones, some good long range solo breakaways win or lose
not good: several terrible days, not even close to winning a stage, worse in week 3 than week 1/2, struggling to hold onto the gruppetto in the mountains