Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[remcredo]

What a strange finish. He lost the wheel of Almeida in the first part of the sterrato, I think he was suprised by the sterrato or something and immediately lost seconds, then got more used to it and stopped losing seconds getting from 13th to 4th. I don't think this shows him inferior to Bernal (well maybe in explosivity), the sterrato wasn't really his thing. Curious to his explanation.

 

[Andre]

It just seemed that Bernal out-sprinted his competitors. I don't feel too worried that Remco is in second place; better than I expected at this time. Bernal feels probably forced to attack and get the few seconds on his rivals. Allez Remco!!

 

[TomBonnen2005]

• Starting cycling in 2017 (4 years ago)
• Breaking his pelvis in August 2020
• Staying away from his bike 4 weeks in January 2021
• Restarting normal trainings in April 2021
• Joining the Giro in May 2021 after 8 months without competition
• Being the second youngest competitor of this Giro
• Being the virtual GC leader after 10 stages (if you remove Bernal's 16sec bonifications)

This kid is amazing. His comeback is already a huge success, let's just enjoy his first multi-mountain stages and his first 3 weeks race, not expecting anything else from him than what he already showed.

 

[peterfin]

Remco's performance was somewhat similar to stage 4. He is not that explosive, probably less than a year ago. This puts him in the back of the leading group when the acceleration in the GC-group starts and further behind when Bernal makes his move. His average speed is still very high and this allows him to overtake many of his opponents prior to the finish line. I do think he made progress compared to stage 4 because Bernal was really brutal today, going all-in here and taking his first stage win in a GT.

I believe there are 4-5 stages left where a similar scenario could unfold: Bernal taking 10 seconds attacking in the last 2 km and also taking any boni's left. This may already be sufficient for Bernal to take the pink jersey home but I assume Ineos wants a bigger gap so I guess we see these attacks from Bernal much earlier in the mountains. It's not just Evenepoel that has a better TT, Vlasov is also good and risks of a puncture are always there to spoil an otherwise great effort. This is where things could get interesting because I am not that sure that a series of accelerations are good enough to distance Remco if Remco is still in a great shape.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

The only longer climb so far, Ciccone has suffered more than Evenepoel. In all 3 uphill finishes, of which 2 suited Ciccone a lot more than Evenepoel, Ciccone took 12s out of Evenepoel in total.

yeah it was a pretty long effort but the climb was pretty soft and exposed. There was a headwind, too. Evenepoel's result was only slightly surprising. Except that he didn't seem to be suffering as much as Bernal, Ciccone, Vlasov etc.

I'm guessing the stage 4 climb was the most relevant climb so far, considering what's still to come, but it's only a guess. I can understand the argument for the stage 6 MTF being a better indicator, though.

 

[Escarabajo]

I impressed with this kid. With all the pressure and adversity that he has had to endure during the last year his performance is very impressive.

 

[houtdffan]

Need to better position himself going into these climbs. He lost today as he started too far back.

He needs to use his diesel engine, go to the front and simply ride everyone off his wheel. Stop being at the back of the pack. Lance or Alberto could attack from there due to their sharp acceleration. That is not Remco's race

 

[Panda Claws]

• Starting cycling in 2017 (4 years ago)
• Breaking his pelvis in August 2020
• Staying away from his bike 4 weeks in January 2021
• Restarting normal trainings in April 2021
• Joining the Giro in May 2021 after 8 months without competition
• Being the second youngest competitor of this Giro
• Being the virtual GC leader after 10 stages (if you remove Bernal's 16sec bonifications)

This kid is amazing. His comeback is already a huge success, let's just enjoy his first multi-mountain stages and his first 3 weeks race, not expecting anything else from him than what he already showed.

You forget that Remco also took 2s bonification in an intermediate sprint.

 

[will-10]

• Starting cycling in 2017 (4 years ago)
• Breaking his pelvis in August 2020
• Staying away from his bike 4 weeks in January 2021
• Restarting normal trainings in April 2021
• Joining the Giro in May 2021 after 8 months without competition
• Being the second youngest competitor of this Giro
• Being the virtual GC leader after 10 stages (if you remove Bernal's 16sec bonifications)

This kid is amazing. His comeback is already a huge success, let's just enjoy his first multi-mountain stages and his first 3 weeks race, not expecting anything else from him than what he already showed.

I have no issues with the rest of your post, but leave it out...

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You forget that Remco also took 2s bonification in an intermediate sprint.

That's twisting the facts. Remco took 2s in an intermediate stroll.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Need to better position himself going into these climbs. He lost today as he started too far back.

He needs to use his diesel engine, go to the front and simply ride everyone off his wheel. Stop being at the back of the pack. Lance or Alberto could attack from there due to their sharp acceleration. That is not Remco's race

Minor incident in the tunnel set him back quite a few places

https://twitter.com/x/status/1393977944750559234

View: https://twitter.com/deceuninck_qst/status/1393977944750559234?s=20

 

[peterfin]

Remco said that he lost positions after the tunnel due to avoiding an Ineos driver that almost touched the back wheel of Bernal.

 

[TMJ]

The Pink Jersey is so close ...

For me it seems more likely that Remco will be able to follow tomorrow, but that Bernal and 1 or 2 other followers will just take away the bonification seconds that will put Bernal in pink. If Bernal then turns out to be better in the high mountains and eventually wins the Giro, then Remco would have come very close, but would never have worn pink. That would be pretty sad ...

Anyway winning the Giro by 10 minutes still is an option.

Very nice prediction. Spot on.

 

[Panda Claws]

What is the last time anyone won their very first GT ever anyway?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

What is the last time anyone won their very first GT ever anyway?

Thought Hinault, but he was a lot older.

 

[TMJ]

What is the last time anyone won their very first GT ever anyway?

Today on Eurosport they claimed it was Bernard Hinault at the 1978 Vuelta. He would have been 23 years-old.

 

[will-10]

What is the last time anyone won their very first GT ever anyway?

Cunego?
EDIT: Nope, should probably proof check myself next time

 

[hayneplane]

It’s exciting for the race to have a strong Ineos team with an in form attacking team leader top of the rankings but unlike past Ineos/Sky Leaders not having the best ITT so still needing to take the race by the horns despite already being in pink.

The uncertainty of how strong Remco currently is has to be a little unnerving for the DS calculations on the time gaps needed and where to go all in to get the time.

 

[Walter1234]

I really think he will limit the damage in the mountains very well, a lot better than people on here have predicted.

We need situations from those people! Who are they? Where is their cycling knowledge coming from?

 

[johnymax]

Maybe not clear, but that's exactly what I wrote: Bernal superior, and Remco winning a lot of GT's.
If Bernal is superior, and we already know that guys like Pogacar are at least as good, it would imply that both Bernal and Pogacar will deny many potential GT wins for (inferior) Remco.

That doesn't make sense. Either Remco is not inferior so he can win many, either he is inferior and he won't win many. You can't have both, unless you suggest that Remco will for sure win a lot of GT's in the future. And that is exactly what nobody dares to say for sure (making bold predictions before Remco even finished a GT), even not Remco's fanboys. But a guy who clearly isn't a fanboy is saying it. Really doesn't make sense.

They are talking about this Giro, Giro 2021. Bernal can very well be superior in this Giro (he is at the moment) and win. But Remco can still improve in the future and have a better preparation for a GT than he had this year (and without the injury he will). So it's not unimaginable to see him win GTs in the future, even if the current Bernal is superior to him. Also he can remain a little inferior to Bernal and Pogačar in the future, but that doesn't mean he won' t win GTs. I'd say the majority of cycling fans (excluding the Nibali thread) would say, Nibali was inferior to both Froome and Contador as a GT rider, yet he still managed to win many GTs.

 

[Walter1234]

Case in point. Physiological difference gets often ignored. Even when I mention it.

I like the remark in the sense that all riders break psychologically first. Always! It is always a matter of the mind if you stop your effort or descide not to push harder. There are no riders who can drive their body so far it gets destroyed in some way or they faint (or whatever). Always the mind descide first.
That is why it is more then the test watt/kg, Vo2max...

 

[red_flanders]

Bernal might be smelling blood? Or is Remco playing with Bernal? In the sense that he keeps Bernal at a few seconds to kick his ass in the last TT?

He’s not playing with anyone, he’s doing what he can. If he could have taken the jersey today, he would have. He’s not at 100%, and he’s happy with where he is. As he should be.

 

[Panda Claws]

Thought Hinault, but he was a lot older.

Would be fitting considering there is imo some resemblance there.

 

[Froome]

I did some calculations assuming that Bernal has an exceptional power to weight ratio (~7) for a 20 min effort but only average aerodynamics and Evenepoel has exceptional aerodynamics and a very high power to weight ratio (~6,5) but lower than Bernal. Using my estimates it seems that up to a slope of 4-5 degrees, Evenepoel has an advantage. I also tried to estimate Evenepoel vs a peloton (where the chasers have an aerodynamic advantage) and it looks like Evenepoel may already have advantage from a 2-3 degrees slope and upwards (unless they are all TT guys with reasonable climbing abilities). These are just rough estimates and there are many variables at play (weather, road conditions, energy left in the tank, mental abilities etc). Still, it may explain why Evenepoel can put minutes in to a chasing group, in particular in a hilly stage. It also means that if Bernal has indeed a better power to weight ratio, going with him to a final long and steep climb might not be the best strategy unless you can drain his energy prior to the climb.

Bernal can do 7 w/kg in a 20 min effort? Impossible, that's pantani's world.

 

[Big Doopie]

...He’s not at 100%, and he’s happy with where he is. As he should be.

This.