Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Big Doopie]

Remco's biggest superpower, if he gets back to 100%, and I really hope we see this one day, is that he can attack on unassuming "normal" stages and take minutes on the peloton if things go right. At least theoretically, whether that tactic can lead to a GT win remains to be seen.

well...yes, theoretically. However the team leaders need to be somewhat isolated first so there is no unity in chasing him like in Poland. I actually find it hard to see Bernal being isolated from Inios much. They have too many strong riders. I also think Remco could ship several minutes in the high mountains to an on fire Bernal. I hope I’m wrong. But this Giro is Bernal’s to lose.

 

[Red Rick]

Hehehe. Is that a wager?

We're talking about dropping a GT winner who's better on steep climbs straight off the wheel on a false flat without being more explosive and being able to just accelerate him off.

 

[Big Doopie]

I think it was a false flat downhill, and Ganna went too hard too early. Narvaez won that little sprint with his eyes closed.

mhmm. Not what I saw. Remco is being set up for the sprint. Ganna blew by with Bernal on his wheel creating quite a gap. Remco‘s teammate couldn’t close it. So Remco had to close it himself. He did and then without actually attacking simply rolled over Bernal. Well Bernal tried to get onto his wheel, he got dropped. Remco‘s effort was way longer than Bernal’s and he still flat out dropped him.

Isn’t that part of being an all-around rider? Shouldn’t that be valued as much as climbing 14% gradients? I think so. Unfortunately that’s not the case right now. And that is why Bernal is my pick to win.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

We're talking about dropping a GT winner who's better on steep climbs straight off the wheel on a false flat without being more explosive and being able to just accelerate him off.

What does the fact that he is a GT winner and a climber have to do with riding on a false flat?

 

[Red Rick]

What does the fact that he is a GT winner and a climber have to do with riding on a false flat?

Nah my bad they're completely unrelated.

Evenepoel will just take 5 minutes out of Bernal with his footballing skills

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Nah my bad they're completely unrelated.

Evenepoel will just take 5 minutes out of Bernal with his footballing skills

Time for bed.
It's funny because you were the one posting articles two pages back, about how muscle types differ and how TT skills =/= climbing above a certain %, but now all of a sudden, being better at steep climbs magically bestows you with these crazy rouleur skills at high speed vs the most aero rider of the peloton who had the world record holder cry for his mommy in his wheel.

What a petty remark.

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

Evenepoel will just take 5 minutes out of Bernal with his footballing skills

Evenepoel might not have that good of a kick up a slope, but surely he must have a good literal one. Next tunnel it won't be him losing so many positions.

 

[spalco]

We're talking about dropping a GT winner who's better on steep climbs straight off the wheel on a false flat without being more explosive and being able to just accelerate him off.

Why not? Betters than bernal have despaired in evenepoel's wheel on the flat.

I mean, obviously bernal wasn't going all out, race on the line, to follow remco, but he was dropped very quickly.

We have seen this many times before, that's what he can do when he's in top form. You give him 20 meters and you arrive at the finish 5 minutes after him.

Maybe not this year, but eventually.

In old school cycling that happened all the time even on non-mountainous stages.

 

[Red Rick]

Why not? Betters than bernal have despaired in evenepoel's wheel on the flat.

I mean, obviously bernal wasn't going all out, race on the line, to follow remco, but he was dropped very quickly.

We have seen this many times before, that's what he can do when he's in top form. You give him 20 meters and you arrive at the finish 5 minutes after him.

Maybe not this year, but eventually.

In old school cycling that happened all the time even on non-mountainous stages.

Which better riders?

I'm just baffled that we're focusing so much on a funky intermediate sprint where we're cherry picking so extremely hard we ignore Evenepoel comfortably got beaten in that sprint. Nobody is talking about how Narvaez surely is gonna crush the ITT now.

 

[Big Doopie]

Maybe not this year, but eventually.

bingo.

In old school cycling that happened all the time even on non-mountainous stages.

indeed. because in old school cycling leaders were more often isolated from their teams. merckx could attack on the flat from a group and they would not see him again because he basically was a better TTer than the rest... same with remco if you look at belgium and Poland stage wins and san sebastian.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

All this fuss about Remco stretching his legs. His first week of training is now complete. Now for the race.

 

[spalco]

Which better riders?

I'm just baffled that we're focusing so much on a funky intermediate sprint where we're cherry picking so extremely hard we ignore Evenepoel comfortably got beaten in that sprint. Nobody is talking about how Narvaez surely is gonna crush the ITT now.

Campenaerts for examples.

But you are right, i did qualify my statement. I think bernal put exactly as much into that 'sprint' as he wanted to and needed to, i think he is a very intelligent athlete (and probably person, not always the same thing).

 

[hayneplane]

I think Cavagna will prove to be an essential component of any forms of attacking plans in future stages. He has barely been seen since the day 1 ITT while Serry has been the team MVP so Remi should have plenty in the tank to brutalise the peloton on false flat or hilly terrain later in the race.

Similar roles could be on the cards for Narvaez for Ineos with his classics credentials set to make him a key domestique for the Montalcino stage.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Which better riders?

I'm just baffled that we're focusing so much on a funky intermediate sprint where we're cherry picking so extremely hard we ignore Evenepoel comfortably got beaten in that sprint. Nobody is talking about how Narvaez surely is gonna crush the ITT now.

You think this was based this on Bernal not being able to hold his heel today? I'm basing it on Bernal's mediocre rouleur skills, on Evenepoel's trademark since he started cycling, the way he has dominated every race he won. Ask any junior who ever rode in his wheel. Ask Campenaerts, ask Masnada, Skuijns ask Wellens... By the way, all of them better rouleurs or TT'ers than Bernal.

And Narvaez came from behind and had a 3-4 man slipstream to propel him forward. Have you ever seen a sprint? Have you ever noticed how the riders coming "from behind" always seem to be so much faster than the guy actually winning? This is not in the least the same thing as holding someone's wheel for 20 minutes at 50km/h with very little shelter behind a smaller and much more aero guy.

While it's possible Bernal can hold his wheel, i think you'd be nothing short of overconfident in claiming it as a fact. Especially based on "he's better at steep climbs" which has literally nothing to do with it.

 

[hayneplane]

You think this was based this on Bernal not being able to hold his heel today? I'm basing it on Bernal's mediocre rouleur skills, on Evenepoel's trademark since he started cycling, the way he has dominated every race he won. Ask any junior who ever rode in his wheel. Ask Campenaerts, ask Masnada, Skuijns ask Wellens... By the way, all of them better rouleurs or TT'ers than Bernal.

And Narvaez came from behind and had a 3-4 man slipstream to propel him forward. Have you ever seen a sprint? Have you ever noticed how the riders coming "from behind" always seem to be so much faster than the guy actually winning? This is not in the least the same thing as holding someone's wheel for 20 minutes at 50km/h with very little shelter behind a smaller and much more aero guy.

While it's possible Bernal can hold his wheel, i think you'd be nothing short of overconfident in claiming it as a fact. Especially based on "he's better at steep climbs" which has literally nothing to do with it.

I agree with most of that but I would argue that Bernal’s rouleur skills are vastly better than mediocre with numerous examples of how good he is in crosswind situations. For a climber he is as good as I have seen at holding position on the front and producing the power.

Evenepoel is clearly leagues above in terms of riding high tempo on flat and shallow uphill compared to Bernal but I think you underestimate Egan in this regard as he is still much better than any other climbing oriented GC guy in recent memory.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I agree with most of that but I would argue that Bernal’s rouleur skills are vastly better than mediocre with numerous examples of how good he is in crosswind situations. For a climber he is as good as I have seen at holding position on the front and producing the power.

Evenepoel is clearly leagues above in terms of riding high tempo on flat and shallow uphill compared to Bernal but I think you underestimate Egan in this regard as he is still much better than any other climbing oriented GC guy in recent memory.

I think Bernal's rouleur skills may be better than most GC riders, but overall saying they are mediocre seems rather fitting looking at the WT peloton, this is no dig or insult. Probably 2/3rd of his own team is better in this respect than him. Ganna, Castroviejo, Moscon, Narvaez... If there are 40-50 guys in the current Giro peloton better, i think i'm not saying anything strange with that comment. It wasn't meant to be dismissive, i just think it's realistic. The fact that van der Hoorn hasn't won a GT, or that Mohoric has gone home, or Vermeersch is a simple domestique, doesn't mean there aren't things they do better.

 

[houtdffan]

bingo.



indeed. because in old school cycling leaders were more often isolated from their teams. merckx could attack on the flat from a group and they would not see him again because he basically was a better TTer than the rest... same with remco if you look at belgium and Poland stage wins and san sebastian.

We could see leaders isolated on the next 2 stages. Stage 12 is rated medium mountain, but I checked all of those climbing profiles. 17km at 5.2 is not a cat 2 climb. It is a solid cat 1. That is a big time sleeper stage

 

[hayneplane]

Fa

I think Bernal's rouleur skills may be better than most GC riders, but overall saying they are mediocre seems rather fitting looking at the WT peloton, this is no dig or insult. Probably 2/3rd of his own team is better in this respect than him. Ganna, Castroviejo, Moscon, Narvaez... If there are 40-50 guys in the current Giro peloton better, i think i'm not saying anything strange with that comment. It wasn't meant to be dismissive, i just think it's realistic. The fact that van der Hoorn hasn't won a GT, or that Mohoric has gone home, or Vermeersch is a simple domestique, doesn't mean there aren't things they do better.

Fair enough if you are ranking it across all riders including powerhouse specialists. I had interpreted it as you discussing this in the context of the GC fight which is why I felt you were being overly dismissive.

All good.

 

[Andre]

He did look like Merckx today

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

We could see leaders isolated on the next 2 stages. Stage 12 is rated medium mountain, but I checked all of those climbing profiles. 17km at 5.2 is not a cat 2 climb. It is a solid cat 1. That is a big time sleeper stage

Yes, it is a potentially dangerous stage, but i'm not convinced this is a stage where Evenepoel has to try something, like i already explained. It's still a long way to Milan. And he would need the help of his team to ditch all the other domestiques of his rivals before he can make a move, and i don't feel they are stronger than Ineos. So far especially Knox has been a disappointment. If the race dynamics evolve favorably, he can still give it a go.

Fair enough if you are ranking it across all riders including powerhouse specialists. I had interpreted it as you discussing this in the context of the GC fight which is why I felt you were being overly dismissive.

All good.

I did include powerhouses, simply because i compare Evenepoel to those powerhouses as well. And one is a cut above, the other a cut below.

 

[hayneplane]

We don’t really know at this stage whether Knox has simply been horribly out of shape or is designated to conserve energy until the final half of the race to be ready to assist later.

 

[peterfin]

I am sure that Evenepoel can slowly accelerate and drop riders with a significant lower power to weight ratio on a false flat just because of their power limit. On a 1-2% climb 30-50% of the energy will be needed to climb so the impact of the aerodynamic drag diminishes greatly giving the wheel chaser less of an advantage. In the case of Evenepoel, that aerodynamic advantage is already limited because his aerodynamic posture makes the difference in drag force between both rides smaller than average. Things get even worse for the chaser if there is a tail wind.

For the same reason I think its difficult to drop Bernal when he keeps Evenepoel's wheel. I assume both have a comparable power to weight ratio so their peak power will be similar. Bernal will still have an aerodynamic advantage when driving behind Evenepoel and with similar power to weight ratio Bernal will still have power left regardless of the climbing angle. Of course, there are always other things at play (energy level, pain level etc). Those have an impact as well but normally, assuming Bernal keeps the wheel, he should not go in the red and drop the wheel. So normally Remco will need to attack him to ensure there is a gap and the flatter the road, the better for Remco as this is where his aero-advantage gives him the edge. If he can isolate him on a stage with a long flat or false flat part in the final, he can overpower him. I think it will be much more difficult to distance Bernal in the mountains unless Remco has an other edge (e.g. being more fresh by spending less energy during the stage, which is difficult as long as Bernal is supported by his team).

In a hilly or mountain stage you see it often that chaser die in the wheel of a stronger rider and drop but sometimes it even happens in a peloton. I remember Frank Vandenbroucke doing this in the Vuelta of 1999. He was leading the peloton on a false flat and with a slow acceleration he pulled the bunch on a line until it cracked including the guy chasing him.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I am sure that Evenepoel can slowly accelerate and drop riders with a significant lower power to weight ratio on a false flat just because of their power limit. On a 1-2% climb 30-50% of the energy will be needed to climb so the impact of the aerodynamic drag diminishes greatly giving the wheel chaser less of an advantage. In the case of Evenepoel, that aerodynamic advantage is already limited because his aerodynamic posture makes the difference in drag force between both rides smaller than average. Things get even worse for the chaser if there is a tail wind.

For the same reason I think its difficult to drop Bernal when he keeps Evenepoel's wheel. I assume both have a comparable power to weight ratio so their peak power will be similar. Bernal will still have an aerodynamic advantage when driving behind Evenepoel and with similar power to weight ratio Bernal will still have power left regardless of the climbing angle. Of course, there are always other things at play (energy level, pain level etc). Those have an impact as well but normally, assuming Bernal keeps the wheel, he should not go in the red and drop the wheel. So normally Remco will need to attack him to ensure there is a gap and the flatter the road, the better for Remco as this is where his aero-advantage gives him the edge. If he can isolate him on a stage with a long flat or false flat part in the final, he can overpower him. I think it will be much more difficult to distance Bernal in the mountains unless Remco has an other edge (e.g. being more fresh by spending less energy during the stage, which is difficult as long as Bernal is supported by his team).

In a hilly or mountain stage you see it often that chaser die in the wheel of a stronger rider and drop but sometimes it even happens in a peloton. I remember Frank Vandenbroucke doing this in the Vuelta of 1999. He was leading the peloton on a false flat and with a slow acceleration he pulled the bunch on a line until it cracked including the guy chasing him.

Theoretically on a neverending straight road with a fixed wind direction and speed, sure. But in reality when already at the limit for twenty minutes, when a gust of wind surprises you from behind a building, knocking you back a meter or two, or out of the slipstream of the rider in front of you, or after a bend or a corner where the front rider naturally takes one or two meters accelerating out of the corner before you can... then it's a different matter. I'm sure Campenaerts "should have been" capable of holding Evenepoel's wheel as well (which he did until his crash...) the truth is when the pace is unrelenting, that you can't keep closing these small gaps. He was dying in Evenepoel's wheel, on flat roads and he is the same height as Bernal and more aero to boot.

Evenepoel bridged a 2 minute gap to Masnada in 10km on rolling roads, dragged Masnada for another few km untill he was done. Lights out. When he attacked in San Sebastian on a light slope, Anacona could almost touch Skuijns rear wheel while Evenepoel was powering in the front, yet Anacona just saw him ride away one meter at a time and there was nothing he could do about it. And this was a few minutes after Evenepoel had to chase the peloton after having had a mechanical.

I've seen it a few too many times, to simply assume it couldn't happen to Bernal, "because he won a GT and is good on steep climbs".

 

[roundabout]

Yeah, as long as their FTPs (or whatever the relevant power measure is depending on the duration of the attack) are similar, there is little chance that aerodynamics alone would be enough to drop Bernal. Even at 2 m distance it's still something like 30% benefit to sit behind at 45 km/h

 

[Big Doopie]

We don’t really know at this stage whether Knox has simply been horribly out of shape or is designated to conserve energy until the final half of the race to be ready to assist later.

tired. And disappointed in himself. Unless he is lying on the cycling podcast.