Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

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You guys are amazing at breaking down races and race tactics and all that. I think the oddsmakers probably depend on most of the comments here. I'm serious. Anyway, up to now, it looks like they got it right.
 
Yes, it is a potentially dangerous stage, but i'm not convinced this is a stage where Evenepoel has to try something, like i already explained. It's still a long way to Milan. And he would need the help of his team to ditch all the other domestiques of his rivals before he can make a move, and i don't feel they are stronger than Ineos. So far especially Knox has been a disappointment. If the race dynamics evolve favorably, he can still give it a go.
It's 3 climbs back to back to back with little flat between. Those "cat 2s" are bonafide cat 1 climbs. 17.2km at 5.7% is NOT cat 2. It's a higher end cat 1. 15.3km at 5.5% is also a solid cat 1. Even the final climb of 10.1km at 5.2% is a solid cat 2.

Maybe he goes on that 9% section of the final climb
 
It's 3 climbs back to back to back with little flat between. Those "cat 2s" are bonafide cat 1 climbs. 17.2km at 5.7% is NOT cat 2. It's a higher end cat 1. 15.3km at 5.5% is also a solid cat 1. Even the final climb of 10.1km at 5.2% is a solid cat 2.

Maybe he goes on that 9% section of the final climb
So you think he's going to drop Bernal on the 9% section, do a faster descent as well, into the valley where there is a measily 4k flat section waiting? He'll take seconds at best on the climb itself, that is if he doesn't run into a counter and actually lose seconds, he'll risk taking too many risks in the descent where he's not going to go faster than a Colombian with a MTB track record anyway, just in order to take 20 seconds in the valley. Well, that's what i think, it's simply not worth it. Especially knowing it's still 10 days from Milan, with all the major climbs still coming.

If anything, he should have made a deal with Bernal and Ganna, to ride to the finish earlier today/yesterday after their boni sprint, along with Cavagna and/or Almeida. I think they could have taken extra time in the remaining 15k, on Vlasov, Carthy, Yates ea. And if it didn't work out, nothing lost but a 10 minute effort before rest day.

Anyway, that's what i think. If circumstances present themselves, by all means. And if he turns out the better man on the sterrati stage, even better.
 
I believe this has already been said, but the main factors for these two competitors are - sustainability for Remco (his tolerance appears to be a major driver in previous successes ... he just keeps going), and whether this also plays out in improvement during a GT, and back functioning for Bernal. Now if Remco does improve as the race goes on and shows that brilliant tolerance to a high pace, and if Bernal's back stays strong, then it will get very interesting.
 
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2nd in intermediate sprint >> would beat Ganna in ITT
Drops 10s on steep climb >> we don't talk about it
Can we stop using the word "dropped" when speaking about stages 4 and 9?

Attacking a guy known for his lack of explosivity and taking him 10 seconds on one acceleration is not what we can call dropped, otherwise we can tell that MVDP dropped Asgreen in the Tour of Flanders, and we saw the final result...

I kind of like the analogy with Asgreen/MVDP: we can not exclude that on 10-40 minutes climbs Remco may eventually be stronger than Bernal (even if I don't believe it due to his lack of training/competition).

Edit: this feeling is reinforced by the fact that at the end of both segments (500-600m each), Remco seemed to be the fastest/freshest rider while others faded
 
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So now we're at the point where we need to redefine words else they apply to Evenepoel. He was just attacking backwards.
Fine. How many dozens of times was Froome "dropped" on mountain stages he ended up winning or putting time into opponents? Call it whatever you want, but if you overreach with the conclusions you take from it, your analysis may end up being wrong in hindsight.
 
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So now we're at the point where we need to redefine words else they apply to Evenepoel. He was just attacking backwards.
What TomBonnen2005 meant is the following: Imagine there is this surprise for the riders, that the moment they cross the finish, they are told it's still 5k of climb. If they had to keep driving then (Bernal having jumped away) Remco would possibly return to Bernal, not needing explosivity, but just a hard pace. Again we don't know that, but we have seen similar situations, for example with Wellens who used explosivity to ride away from Remco on the climb, whereafter Remco used his hard pace to take him back and even (really) drop him. So dropping means your pace is faster than the others, not that you can sprint away from some hundred meters, which was the case in stages 4 and 9.
 
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So now we're at the point where we need to redefine words else they apply to Evenepoel. He was just attacking backwards.
No, just pacing himself knowing that he can sustain 600 Watts for 1min and 400 Watts for 5min while Bernal can sustain 800 Watts for 1min and 380 Watts for 5min. This alone could explain why Bernal made such a big gap on his initial acceleration and why the gap stabilized/slightly diminished afterwards. This probably also explains what happened in the Tour of Flanders. We'll have some answer on the Zoncolan and the later climbs.
 
Fine. How many dozens of times was Froome "dropped" on mountain stages he ended up winning or putting time into opponents? Call it whatever you want, but if you overreach with the conclusions you take from it, your analysis may end up being wrong in hindsight.
Are we gonna argue he wasn't dropped like a stone on Peyragudes 2017 now because he didn't get dropped on later stages? Or that he wasn't on Osimo 2018 cause it was short and just not the right climb for him.

This has nothing to do with overreaching based on short climbs and everythign with redefining terms and magical thinking. I haven't every seen this for any other rider. It's like arguing religion
 
Also; can we at least wait until Remco is dropped on an actual steep climb before claiming confidently that he can't do it? And I'm talking about being dropped, not losing 5-10 seconds at the end of the race.
Can we at least wait until Remco has shown anything in a 3 week race and multi-mountain high-altitude stages before hyping up the idea of him outclimbing everyone in the third week?
 
We're talking about dropping a GT winner who's better on steep climbs straight off the wheel on a false flat without being more explosive and being able to just accelerate him off.
The point of a wager isn't that you should agree, so I can't see the purpose of this evasive response.

I'll propose the avatar bet between you:

Will Remco Evenepoel drop (distance and maintain a gap to) Egan Bernal, while the latter is on the wheel of the former, on a [gradient of less than 5 %, or whatever you'll agree constitutes false flat] in this Giro?

If yes, Logic will pick an avatar for Red Rick to wear from after the Giro until [the end of the Tour, but you'll may agree to a different duration]. If no, vice versa.
 
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