Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[AlfaLum]

strange ride for Evenepoel today

He lost most of his time (except to Pog) on the first ascent. Wonder what happened there.

His time up the second ascent was not that bad

Probably trying to fool his opponents so they underestimate him when he is racing for his real goals this season..

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Keep thinking back to what Jonathan Vaughters said about Remco:

1. Will win a lot of races, but he doubted he was a GT rider
2, That his advantage was from his CdA and not that he pushed a lot of power

Quickstep must have data. It must show that he is not for longer or steep climbs. Not sure why they keep moving him in GT direction as opposed to targeting what he has shown to be very good at.

He pushes extremely big numbers for a rider his weight. Vaughters knows jack sht. Just being aero doesn't enable you to beat big engines like Küng or Asgreen, or previously Ganna on flat long TTs, or we'd see many small climbers do much better in TT's after simply working on their aero position. The only ones who come close are those who also push big numbers.

Also, he was also clearly not "spent" at the end of the stage, and he lost most of his time compared to the other mortals on the 1st climb, like Houtdffan said.

Oh I didn’t realize he crashed when I posted it. I just woke up, looked up the results on PCS, then read the raiders thread first before the race ones. My b.

Mas crashed, but Geoghegan Hart didn't, Kelderman didn't either to my knowledge. Lopes. Uran. They all finished behind him.

Today reminded me of Lombardia 2021, where he dropped early but finished strong.

 

[peterfin]

He said in the past that he suffers more in the cold than the heat. Maybe that had an impact today? Pog said in his interview that he saw him and some others suffer from the cold. During his pro years sofar he always performed best during late spring to season end, basically the best months in Europe, except for some stage races in Spain and Argentina where the weather was good as well.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He said in the past that he suffers more in the cold than the heat. Maybe that had an impact today? Pog said in his interview that he saw him and some others suffer from the cold. During his pro years sofar he always performed best during late spring to season end, basically the best months in Europe, except for some stage races in Spain and Argentina where the weather was good as well.

He did very good on Kartepe when it was cold and wet in 2019.

It seems like grasping at straws to be honest, but maybe there is something to it. Zoncolan last year was also gritty weather iirc. When he bonked in 2019 Romandie, it was also raining and cold. On the mountain stage in Adriatica Ionica where he dropped it was also raining (not sure about cold). But when riders get suffer from the cold, do they usually finish strong?

 

[Red Rick]

He did very good on Kartepe when it was cold and wet in 2019.

It seems like grasping at straws to be honest, but maybe there is something to it. Zoncolan last year was also gritty weather iirc. When he bonked in 2019 Romandie, it was also raining and cold. On the mountain stage in Adriatica Ionica where he dropped it was also raining (not sure about cold). But when riders get suffer from the cold, do they usually finish strong?

Even in flat ITTs his best splits are often in a headwind where CdA is more important.

Hes obviously not super heavy but I think his weight gets underreported

 

[Big Doopie]

He pushes extremely big numbers for a rider his weight. Vaughters knows jack ***.

you and i may not like it, but it seems like he nailed it so far.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Even in flat ITTs his best splits are often in a headwind where CdA is more important.

Hes obviously not super heavy but I think his weight gets underreported

He has a great CdA, that's not the point. The point is that only that isn't enough to take 2 medals at 2 WCs and 2 medals at 2 ECs. We also know his FTP is above 400. Even if his weight were underreported for 1 or 2 kg, that would still be top tier. Unless you think he weighs something like 69kg.

you and i may not like it, but it seems like he nailed it so far.

Maybe Vaughters can explain why his man Bissegger, of whom Vaughters claims has the best CdA of the peloton, and who is 15kg heavier, doesn't come close on long flat TTs.

 

[Salvarani]

Excluding races that he didnt finished. This is the furthest down on GC he will have finished in a stage-race since Deutschland Tour 2019, he finished 31th.

 

[GuntherL1]

Let's focus on the positives. He didn't take any wrong turns today.

 

[GuntherL1]

So Valencia is confirmed. Gradients of 10% or more have become a problem for him. That's peculiar because pre-crash it wasn't a problem in San Sebastian 2019, nor on the Picon Blanco in Burgos 2020, which is longer than the Carpegna but just as steep.
Edit: I forgot about the Sormano in Lombardy 2020.

 

[Big Doopie]

Maybe Vaughters can explain why his man Bissegger, of whom Vaughters claims has the best CdA of the peloton, and who is 15kg heavier, doesn't come close on long flat TTs.

hmm. maybe remco's strength is his CdA and his ability to maintain his personal maximum power for longer than most. However, that max power is not stratospheric.

may explain why he does better in longer TTs and why he tends to come back (or maintain better) after being dropped (Lombardy and today).

 

[roundabout]

a rider with FTP above 400 (at the reported weight) should not be dropped with 25+ people still there

 

[Red Rick]

He has a great CdA, that's not the point. The point is that only that isn't enough to take 2 medals at 2 WCs and 2 medals at 2 ECs. We also know his FTP is above 400. Even if his weight were underreported for 1 or 2 kg, that would still be top tier. Unless you think he weighs something like 69kg.


Maybe Vaughters can explain why his man Bissegger, of whom Vaughters claims has the best CdA of the peloton, and who is 15kg heavier, doesn't come close on long flat TTs.

Bisegger too hyperspecialistic to short ITTs.

Evenepoels W/kg that are referred to are generally lab values or sea level ITT values, which is different from climbs at 1000m+ average altitude.

Now either on shallower climbs he benefits a lot from being more aero and wheelsurfing very efficiently, or he legit puts out less watts/kg on steep climbs.

Or his 20 minute power falls off a cliff at the end of a stage compared to when fresh, which I dont really buy.

The funny thing about steep climbs is he doesnt seem bad on them when theyre short like yesterday

Also today he got dropped by like 35 guys and finished 13th. All around weird stuff

 

[houtdffan]

What is even stranger, the overwhelming majority of his time loss was when Alaphilippe was pacing him up the climb. He was dangling just off the back prior to that. Maybe Alap hurt more than helped today?

 

[Andre]

Back to the drawing board. I just wonder what kind of training plans he will now focus on moving forward. I still have faith that he can win some classics and monuments this year. I have no idea how will perform in La Vuelta. I hope he doesn't get demoralized by this.

 

[peterfin]

But when riders get suffer from the cold, do they usually finish strong?

I believe it's mostly a matter of energy. In such a cold stage you need more calories to keep your body at temperature as well. Frozen fingers don't help in maintaining a good eating and drinking habbit so that can make things worse.

It could be that this was at least part of the problem early on. Soler even helped him after he asked for a bidon. During the 2nd climb he may have regained most of his leg power, which explains the better performance at the end.

It's also an indication that Alaphilippe couldn't compete today while his plan was clearly to win the stage. There are others that suffered as well. It was too cold for many. Nevertheless Pogacar and others managed it well so it's no excuse. It's part of the game.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Bisegger too hyperspecialistic to short ITTs.

Evenepoels W/kg that are referred to are generally lab values or sea level ITT values, which is different from climbs at 1000m+ average altitude.

Now either on shallower climbs he benefits a lot from being more aero and wheelsurfing very efficiently, or he legit puts out less watts/kg on steep climbs.

Or his 20 minute power falls off a cliff at the end of a stage compared to when fresh, which I dont really buy.

The funny thing about steep climbs is he doesnt seem bad on them when theyre short like yesterday

Also today he got dropped by like 35 guys and finished 13th. All around weird stuff

That's not true. His FTP is based on efforts even during his junior years as reported by his trainer back then as well as climbing training this winter in Spain.

 

[Open Horizon]

I still have faith that he can win some classics and monuments this year.

 

[Red Rick]

That's not true. His FTP is based on efforts even during his junior years as reported by his trainer back then as well as climbing training this winter in Spain.

So reported from training and junior years.

Now he's 3 years into his senior career and Im not sure what his best W/kg estimate for a 20 minute + climb is. Picon Blanco cpmes down to 6.2 for 25 minutes and that may be the only 20 minute 6W+ climb

 

[Netserk]

What is even stranger, the overwhelming majority of his time loss was when Alaphilippe was pacing him up the climb. He was dangling just off the back prior to that. Maybe Alap hurt more than helped today?

He lost more time on the second ascent. He was 1'30'' behind the favourites at the finish line with one lap to go (Ala was done just shortly before that), he finished the stage 4'01'' down. He was 1'02'' behind the favourites at the top of the first climb.

 

[red_flanders]

I’m pretty disappointed after today. Thought he’d do more. First time I’ve really wondered about his potential.

 

[Red Rick]

He lost more time on the second ascent. He was 1'30'' behind the favourites at the finish line with one lap to go (Ala was done just shortly before that), he finished the stage 4'01'' down. He was 1'02'' behind the favourites at the top of the first climb.

1 minute slower first and then 1 minute 30 slower compared to the Vinge group?

I think he did the fastest 3km by some margin

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Maybe he's just not the next Eddy Merckx. Just a young lad who is good at some races and not so good at others.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So reported from training and junior years.

Now he's 3 years into his senior career and Im not sure what his best W/kg estimate for a 20 minute + climb is. Picon Blanco cpmes down to 6.2 for 25 minutes and that may be the only 20 minute 6W+ climb

I think even his Zoncolan effort was way better, 2 weeks into the Giro. Today he got dropped early on a much shorter climb by no-names.

 

[houtdffan]

He lost more time on the second ascent. He was 1'30'' behind the favourites at the finish line with one lap to go (Ala was done just shortly before that), he finished the stage 4'01'' down. He was 1'02'' behind the favourites at the top of the first climb.

Thought he was 1:30 down at the top of the second climb and 2 min behind at 1 lap to go?