Algarve, Norway San sebastian and Burgos are the races he can win
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Big Doopie
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Roglic to me seems above the rest (as usual), but I would wait for when the road goes uphill to evaluate Remco's level. We never doubted his TT ability.
Well, now let's see if the strava numbers means he's climbing a lot better at Basque Country. Would be great for his mental state.
Big Doopie
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well... rog is supposedly the better TT-er and remco actually had the best time at the top of the hard climb, so...
certainly not much to go on, but it seems like it was in the TT and technical part of the course that Remco lost time.
and the real gap is between the two of them and the rest, not rog and remco, let's be fair now.
And yet a more comprehensive analysis would need to be done to understand where he lost those 5 sec. If, as I suspect, it was mostly due to marginally slower cornering, this means he climbed just as fast as Primoz. Sure that won't necessarilly translate into same strength on the climbs during the stages, but it still means something. If Remco just doesn't get psyched out during the rest of this race's climbs, he may yet surprise himself. And if he surprises himself, he will really know if he can take it to the best on the climbs in stage races of this length, which would be the necessary first step to being able to do it for 3 weeks on end. Good luck to him.
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I don't really think cracking in Tirreno was anything psychological.
Now Itzulia might however give him a chance to make a decision between riding conservatively and trying some very aggressive moves.
Now Itzulia might however give him a chance to make a decision between riding conservatively and trying some very aggressive moves.
I think on the double-Carpena, yes. Because he wasn't even in the game the first go up, when he had been attacking Pogi on the previous days' albiet shorter climbs. I don't think a simple drop in level can explain it on the first Carpena ascent. There I really think he got psyched out or at least that was part of it.
Dropping like a brick before overtaking a bunch of guys is something he's done numerous times. Twice in the Giro last year, Lombardia last year. It's like he can't stay above threshold for much longer than 10 minutes
Yea, well, the way he came into the Giro I don't think allows for drawing a definitive conclusion. And the rest of last year, not always mind you, was conditioned by his lack of proper preparation due to the massive injury he sustained.
Granted, he also has not shown being able to stay above threshold for a sufficient amount of time to compete against the very best. It may be for these very reasons, however, that he I think was also psychologically defeated on the first Carpegna. I still say it remains to be seen if he can or cannot do it in the future. He needs a healthy year, without injury, and a solid Vuelta, then we shall have a better idea me thinks.
10 minutes above aerobic threshold? That seems like a lot, is that even a thing?
.....if he climbs at his rate rather than chasing small gaps. He needs to ride to his strength.
Threshold is generally defined as a 1h power. A 20 minute all out effort is slightly above between 5 and 10% above treshold depending on the rider.
That is it indeed. Tadej and Primoz are both blessed with having a stinging accelleration. Remco, as you say, is a diesel. At the same time he will have to learn how to react to the brutal changes in pace at the top of long climbs deep into a race. Not every rider has the same trajectory or capacities. Clearly Remco rose fast into being able to win as a pro, but not as meteoric as Tadej's rise into the pinacle of the sport. It may be that the Belgian simply needs more time to develop and, again, he had a major setback at Lombardia, the effects of which he could still be dealing with. That made him delay his grand tour debut. In the meantime Pogacar went from 3rd at the Vuelta to winning two Tours all in succession. It could thus also be that Remco will not be able to arrive at that level, but surely he needs to get through this season demonstrating that he has the potential to get there. If not, set new goals. But let's see.
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He got dropped at the food of the first Carpegna. That wasn't above threshold and it wasn't even close to 10 minutes.
Big Doopie
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so it's official, FWIW, remco had the fastest ascent of the climb with some steep gradients during the ITT, so it was not in the flat section before the climb that he bettered Rog.
He has done it numerous times and always in cold conditions. Somehow I still believe the cold impacts him more than others. At least, it's the most plausible explanation to me. When he got dropped at the first Carpegna climb he wasn't above his normal threshold at all. He actually said that he could't reach his normal power level at that time. His explanation was that he had a bad day and was just not good enough that day so he couldn't compete. However, he was very competitive prior to that moment and also said that he was not feeling bad so there was no indication that he was in a bad shape. Even in Lombardia he said he was feeling good prior to stalling at that climb. He won a race prior to Lombardia in a typical Remco attack so there was a good reason to believe that he was competitive.
Remco with some praise for the fellow man 
Evenepoel: I couldn't do anything more against 'idol' Roglic in Itzulia TT
'You needed a lot of balls to take risks' on technical course, says Belgian
"He won three times the Vuelta," he added, referring to Roglič. "So I think together with Tadej [Pogačar] he's the best GC rider in the world. He's a big idol and I'm looking up to him but that doesn't mean I'm not a bit disappointed to be second today."
Evenepoel: I couldn't do anything more against 'idol' Roglic in Itzulia TT
'You needed a lot of balls to take risks' on technical course, says Belgian
"He won three times the Vuelta," he added, referring to Roglič. "So I think together with Tadej [Pogačar] he's the best GC rider in the world. He's a big idol and I'm looking up to him but that doesn't mean I'm not a bit disappointed to be second today."
Big Doopie
BANNED
Remco with some praise for the fellow man
Evenepoel: I couldn't do anything more against 'idol' Roglic in Itzulia TT
'You needed a lot of balls to take risks' on technical course, says Belgian
"He won three times the Vuelta," he added, referring to Roglič. "So I think together with Tadej [Pogačar] he's the best GC rider in the world. He's a big idol and I'm looking up to him but that doesn't mean I'm not a bit disappointed to be second today."
probably reading too much into it, but i wonder if some of the pressure has actually come off after the setback in T-A and the unquestionable superiority of Pog.
now perhaps he can just focus on his growing his career at a normal rate and being the underdog in many races and enjoying when he has successes without just expecting them.
This. He needs to just focus on his own performances and watch he'll surprise us against the Bigs. For if he get's cought up with what they are doing, he defeats himself.
PS. It is nice that he says Roglic is an idol, but he needs to sporting wise believe he can also "slay the Badger" in a manner of speaking. Perhaps not now (which is unlikely), but he isn't going to be just "the kid" forever.
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I actually think he underestimates himself on the last climb, because he was .5 sec. up on Primoz at the first time check, then -8 at the second, which means he shipped time on the descent and technical part of the course. He then finished just 5 sec. down at the finish. This seems to indicate that he actually gained a couple of secs. on the final cobbled climb.Remco with some praise for the fellow man
Evenepoel: I couldn't do anything more against 'idol' Roglic in Itzulia TT
'You needed a lot of balls to take risks' on technical course, says Belgian
"He won three times the Vuelta," he added, referring to Roglič. "So I think together with Tadej [Pogačar] he's the best GC rider in the world. He's a big idol and I'm looking up to him but that doesn't mean I'm not a bit disappointed to be second today."
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That's jumping to conclusions. He has time to demonstrate otherwise.
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