Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[VayaVayaVaya]

Isn't this just us floundering around the obvious answer? Almost ever GT winner started as a young talent able to deliver inconsistent brilliance. They do tours and GTs to build their endurance and recovery abilities and, generally, after 4 or 5 GTs they have climbed the rates and are able to string day after day together and compete for the win. Exceptions to that patter are exactly that - exceptions. Pogacar didn't need that, sure, but Roglic did. Nibali did. Froome did. Contador did (although fewer reps). And so on. Let him ride a few GTs and drop like a stone here and there and earn some results in the 30s and 20s and then let's see. If he beats that, he's beating standard historical precedence.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I tend to agree. Remco’s TdS TT shows he was in good form and not tired as was being suggested here. But the more I read here and knowing his actual results I think he is better suited to one day races. It now seems like he may have over achieved at the 2021 Giro before withdrawing?

But I also find his weight gain suggested here peculiar. Wiki has him at 61 Kg which for his TT suggests climbing greatness. But what is his true weight today? Stage racing also requires recovery and other skills like descending and positioning and I don’t think he is great at these aspects of the sport? But again he is still young and developing and we speculate, time will tell us more.

A few days earlier I questioned his weight problems but after seeing his upper body yesterday I have to admit that he doesn't look like he should to conquer multiple mountain stages. He surely has a few kilos more than that, maybe 64-65 kg (he's much bigger than in early 2020 when he was 59-60 kg). @Logic-is-your-friend , you were right, I thought he got thinner recently but it was not the case in the TdS at least (maybe his weight fluctuates and he has problem with maintaining it).

He was 66.5 in Valencia. He was 64 at Liège. The plan was to weigh 63 at the start of the Vuelta. One would assume he is now somewhere between 64 and 63. Which is a few kilos heavier than many climbers who are smaller than 1m80, while he is only 1m71. Mas, taller and lighter. Bernal, taller and lighter. Bardet, 13cm taller and 1 kg heavier. Roglic, 6cm taller 1kg heavier. Fuglsang 10cm taller, 1kg heavier.

 

[Red Rick]

He was 66.5 in Valencia. He was 64 at Liège. The plan was to weigh 63 at the start of the Vuelta. One would assume he is now somewhere between 64 and 63. Which is a few kilos heavier than many climbers who are smaller than 1m80, while he is only 1m71. Mas, taller and lighter. Bernal, taller and lighter. Bardet, 13cm taller and 1 kg heavier. Roglic, 6cm taller 1kg heavier. Fuglsang 10cm taller, 1kg heavier.

Height doesn't say everything about body dimensions though. I think Evenepoel has relatively short arms and legs, which in scientific literature is inversely associated with climbing and time trialing performance IIRC. This is a weak association mind you. And I don't precisely know why that would be.

 

[postmanhat]

Does anyone know if he's riding the Belgium nationals?

 

[spalco]

Height doesn't say everything about body dimensions though. I think Evenepoel has relatively short arms and legs, which in scientific literature is inversely associated with climbing and time trialing performance IIRC. This is a weak association mind you. And I don't precisely know why that would be.

In my amateurish view it makes sense, because arms and legs weigh less than the torso. Longer limbs could make the proportions more optimal for an endurance athlete, because less weight is "wasted" on body parts that aren't directly useful for increased performance.

I'm pretty sure Remco should slim down a bit more btw, not aggressively, but over time. Obviously he's not fat by any reasonable definition, but those extra kilos make themselves known at this level.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Height doesn't say everything about body dimensions though. I think Evenepoel has relatively short arms and legs, which in scientific literature is inversely associated with climbing and time trialing performance IIRC. This is a weak association mind you. And I don't precisely know why that would be.

His short lower body (same with Van Wilder and Campenaerts for instance) is why they are much more aerodynamic on a TT bike. So i find it peculiar that that would be generally seen as a negative for TT riders. Shorter legs mean lower seat hight which results in a more aero position when using the aerobars.

 

[Andre]

it sounds a bit different in Belgian press today:

"I'm mainly refering to Thursday's stage, where I lost 2 minutes although an Ardennes-type parcours normally should have suited me. But I was way too relaxed. I thought the favourites would keep things together, and a Matthews-type of rider would win the stage. If I or the team would have approached it with more balls and taken the initiative, there's no way I would have lost 2 minutes. Physically and mentally we have messed it up. A total offday.

In that way I still differ compared to a rider like Geraint Thomas. He always races aggressively and alert, while I wasn't even prepared for the heat that day. I had the wrong helmet - you could fry an egg on it in the end. I didn't have any ice either, because I thought it wasn't necessary. Fortunately I'm learning quickly, and I'm not going to make that mistake again."

But well, not ideal indeed of course, and details like this can make a difference - but not if you get dropped on every climb anyway, and tbh by 2nd or 3rd class of GC riders. Not sure he has realized that.

edit: no Burgos for him anymore, btw: "At this level you have to save as much energy as possible. [...] That is why I go for Vuelta for a different approach. After my offday Thursday we immediately decided that I will take the Tour of Burgos off my schedule. I want to be as fresh as possible for the Vuelta"

That's another thing I like very much about Remco; when there is a mistake or miscalculation by either him or his team, he quickly and immediately notes it down and prevents it from happening again.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It could be he trains a little too hard leading up to stage races and lacks freshness for longer, harder, consecutive days.

Lets say he peaked for Liege. How much rest did he have between Liege amd Suisse?

I had already voiced my concerns whether it could be due to overtraining. So yeah, i don't know.

Does anyone know if he's riding the Belgium nationals?

He will.

 

[Unchained]

Finally bring him to a proper GT team. Just imagine him beeing in this year‘s BORA squad. Or INEOS. They both know what do to. QS apparently doesn‘t have a single clue I‘m afraid.

I don't completely agree and I think when the rainbow jersey and your top GC guy crash to the extent of a punctured lung..regroup and get the exposure..I think the riders he is surrounded by give him lots of opportunity..
Not sure where he would fit at Jumbo, or Energy..he shines like a younger Sagan..I think Remco could fit for many reasons and seasons at the TDF despite his lack of pure climbing ability..he looks to have enough punch for drag races w others considered sprinters..I think all young riders should be looking at TT skills as the segway to professional success..all current young superstars have parity with one another..super excited to see what the next few years look like..
waiting to see what Quickstep..does..I see Evenepoel as a complete wildcard..

 

[Cookster15]

Height doesn't say everything about body dimensions though. I think Evenepoel has relatively short arms and legs, which in scientific literature is inversely associated with climbing and time trialing performance IIRC. This is a weak association mind you. And I don't precisely know why that would be.

Glad you added that BMI is a weak association with climbing ability in scientific literature. We know Remco is a world class time trialler so he should have elite climbing ability and he has shown this on occasion albeit inconsistently.

Watts per kilo is king for climbing I don't believe it matters how you get there - the laws of physics don't care. At 61Kg Remco is world class. At 64Kg he is 5% down on W/Kg power and that 3kg saps recovery too. On leg length it is the ratio of femur to tibia length which is more important.

I also find it peculiar the claim that being short is an advantage for time trialing? A long flat back has always been a more aerodynamic profile than that of shorter riders. Tall riders in my experience are over represented in the strongest against the clock.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I also find it peculiar the claim that being short is an advantage for time trialing? A long flat back has always been a more aerodynamic profile than that of shorter riders. Tall riders in my experience are over represented in the strongest against the clock.

Maybe i misunderstood Rick's post, but i didn't think that's what he was saying? He was saying when the legs are short in relation to the rest of the body, that it is associated with weaker climbing/TT performance? He says inversely, so i assume he means short legs are not beneficial for a TT rider. But in that case, short legs mean low seat height... so that should mean better CdA.

 

[Cookster15]

Maybe i misunderstood Rick's post, but i didn't think that's what he was saying? He was saying when the legs are short in relation to the rest of the body, that it is associated with weaker climbing/TT performance? He says inversely, so i assume he means short legs are not beneficial for a TT rider. But in that case, short legs mean low seat height... so that should mean better CdA.

I am just saying climbing ability is determined by sustained watts per kilo - not how you obtain those numbers. For example, Domenico Pozzovivo is a climber with short legs.

What wowed me about Remco in 2018 was he was obviously a world class time trialler but when I discovered he was only 61Kg I knew that meant he should be able to climb. After all 61kg is the same weight as quoted for Alberto Contador in his prime but Contador was an excellent but not great time trialist.

So I think short legs or not are irrelevant. Remco's time trialling has already proved he has the power so then it comes back to his weight and recovery (for Grand Tours).

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I am just saying climbing ability is determined by sustained watts per kilo - not how you obtain those numbers. For example, Domenico Pozzovivo is a climber with short legs.

What wowed me about Remco in 2018 was he was obviously a world class time trialler but when I discovered he was only 61Kg I knew that meant he should be able to climb. After all 61kg is the same weight as quoted for Alberto Contador in his prime but Contador was an excellent but not great time trialist.

So I think short legs or not are irrelevant. Remco's time trialling has already proved he has the power so then it comes back to his weight and recovery (for Grand Tours).

I was specifically referring towards the part i quoted.

 

[Cookster15]

I was specifically referring towards the part i quoted.

He said this ....

Height doesn't say everything about body dimensions though. I think Evenepoel has relatively short arms and legs, which in scientific literature is inversely associated with climbing and time trialing performance IIRC. This is a weak association mind you. And I don't precisely know why that would be.

I don't buy this. The weak association in the literature is the relevant point IMO.

 

[ppanther92]

Isn't this just us floundering around the obvious answer? Almost ever GT winner started as a young talent able to deliver inconsistent brilliance. They do tours and GTs to build their endurance and recovery abilities and, generally, after 4 or 5 GTs they have climbed the rates and are able to string day after day together and compete for the win. Exceptions to that patter are exactly that - exceptions. Pogacar didn't need that, sure, but Roglic did. Nibali did. Froome did. Contador did (although fewer reps). And so on. Let him ride a few GTs and drop like a stone here and there and earn some results in the 30s and 20s and then let's see. If he beats that, he's beating standard historical precedence.

I agree with the only caveat that Evenepoel is exceptional in the sense that he shows outstanding displays of strength in other areas already. But you are right, Roglic (ITT and stage wins vefore stepping up the GC game) and Nibali (week-long tours and hilly classics) show that GTs are "harder" to get right than other things maybe.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He said this ....

I don't buy this. The weak association in the literature is the relevant point IMO.

You lost me. The weak association is referring to the short legs in relation to the rest of the body being bad for climbing/TT. So imho he's saying this (relatively short legs) is said to be bad for climbing/TT, but the proof for that is weak. And then you say ''I also find it peculiar the claim that being short is an advantage for time trialing? ''. But that wasn't the claim, it was quite the opposite unless i'm misunderstanding what he was saying. And then you say ''I am just saying climbing ability is determined by sustained watts per kilo '' so you suddenly start about climbing, while the initial comment i responded to was you talking about TT, not climbing. So...

Anyway, i'm sure it's all good, lol.

 

[Red Rick]

Isn't this just us floundering around the obvious answer? Almost ever GT winner started as a young talent able to deliver inconsistent brilliance. They do tours and GTs to build their endurance and recovery abilities and, generally, after 4 or 5 GTs they have climbed the rates and are able to string day after day together and compete for the win. Exceptions to that patter are exactly that - exceptions. Pogacar didn't need that, sure, but Roglic did. Nibali did. Froome did. Contador did (although fewer reps). And so on. Let him ride a few GTs and drop like a stone here and there and earn some results in the 30s and 20s and then let's see. If he beats that, he's beating standard historical precedence.

Nothing here is compatible with winning CSS in your first year and getting 2nd at the WC ITT.

 

[Extinction]

He is short, but stocky, so he will have to overcome this deficiency.

 

[Cookster15]

You lost me. The weak association is referring to the short legs in relation to the rest of the body being bad for climbing/TT. So imho he's saying this (relatively short legs) is said to be bad for climbing/TT, but the proof for that is weak. And then you say ''I also find it peculiar the claim that being short is an advantage for time trialing? ''. But that wasn't the claim, it was quite the opposite unless i'm misunderstanding what he was saying. And then you say ''I am just saying climbing ability is determined by sustained watts per kilo '' so you suddenly start about climbing, while the initial comment i responded to was you talking about TT, not climbing. So...

Anyway, i'm sure it's all good, lol.

I think logically - like your namesake . Watts per kilo is what should matter, not leg lengths or his height. Maybe I read Red Ricks comment differently.

But to win TTs means you have the power. If he weighs 61Kg that means he should be able to climb with the best and he has shown that albeit inconsistently. So was he ever 61Kg or is this Wiki mischief?

 

[Cookster15]

Height doesn't say everything about body dimensions though. I think Evenepoel has relatively short arms and legs, which in scientific literature is inversely associated with climbing and time trialing performance IIRC. This is a weak association mind you. And I don't precisely know why that would be.

Can you provide a link to this scientific literature? We already know Evenepoel can time trial so then his leg lengths or body dimensions are a moot point to his climbing potential? So his climbing potential then becomes a function of his weight?

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Why not? Those are exceptional performances that do not require GT level recovery and the ability to dig deep into well over and over and over again.

 

[Red Rick]

Can you provide a link to this scientific literature? We already know Evenepoel can time trial so then his leg lengths or body dimensions are a moot point to his climbing potential? So his climbing potential then becomes a function of his weight?

https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/bjsports/23/1/30.full.pdf

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

The problem with Evenepoel is that he rests too little. He came out of the training period for Itzulia in good shape. So early April. With hardly any rest he moved on to Liege . After that, he should have rested for at least two, maybe three weeks, and not competing in Norway. Instead, build up very slowly to Switzerland. Now he came from Norway tired, and started with a declining form in Switzerland.

Who thinks he's learned his lesson ? Not at all. He declared to rest only one week after Switzerland. OK, he won't do Burgos , but he will do San Sebastian. He will probably not be fresh enough for the Vuelta again, not for the second half anyway. And certainly not for the world championships.

 

[CHGJ2000]

S

Height doesn't say everything about body dimensions though. I think Evenepoel has relatively short arms and legs, which in scientific literature is inversely associated with climbing and time trialing performance IIRC. This is a weak association mind you. And I don't precisely know why that would be.

Shorter arms and legs should result in a significantly lower CdA with no significant loss in power, and iirc leg length is observed to be much more closely related to CdA than height. For climbing performance there would be some logic to it, in that longer arms/legs should result in improved cooling, but extremely hard to believe the TT one.

Nevermind, saw the research article, possibly just a result of the small sample size and ended up with an odd population.

 

[Oldermanish]

The problem with Evenepoel is that he rests too little. He came out of the training period for Itzulia in good shape. So early April. With hardly any rest he moved on to Liege . After that, he should have rested for at least two, maybe three weeks, and not competing in Norway. Instead, build up very slowly to Switzerland. Now he came from Norway tired, and started with a declining form in Switzerland.

Who thinks he's learned his lesson ? Not at all. He declared to rest only one week after Switzerland. OK, he won't do Burgos , but he will do San Sebastian. He will probably not be fresh enough for the Vuelta again, not for the second half anyway. And certainly not for the world championships.

Based on what I'm reading he should take the time to grow longer femurs.