Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Riek s]

TT parcour is slightly downhill. So i expect high speeds and potentially lower time gaps then if it were really flat or false flat in the other direction .

The wind will determine how much chance remco has to win the TT. If it is tailwind with this parcour he might get steep competition from the heavier riders)
If it is a headwind... difference could be huge.
Looking at the TT of Mas he isn't that bad. I think with a gap of 2minutes... REmco might see him at the end in a very long stretch, but don't think he will catch him.

 

[Extinction]

So a great effort and crushed the competition no doubt, but not as fast as I expected. Not apples to apples, but :12 faster than Yates, :14 than Valverde / MAL, :17 than Pinot, :19 than Quintana, :23 than Crushweak, :31 than Mas…all 2018 performances.

But was the 2018 stage ridden after a hard MTF previously? And what was the 2018 stage like, the same, harder, easier?

 

[Prim]

Sure, but remember Remco prepared specifically for long, high altitude climbs for this; at Livigno, or was it Bormio, I can't remember.

It was Livigno for whatever it is worth.

 

[Riek s]

So a great effort and crushed the competition no doubt, but not as fast as I expected. Not apples to apples, but :12 faster than Yates, :14 than Valverde / MAL, :17 than Pinot, :19 than Quintana, :23 than Crushweak, :31 than Mas…all 2018 performances.

True, but in the same ordeal
Simon Yates lost 1m3
Lopez 1m28
Valverde lost 1m32
Pinot 6m30


So today stage or at least the state of the groupetto at the end of the stage was completely different. So like you said not really apples to apples.


Edit i'm pretty sure in 2018 the fastest part of the climb was the last km, while here the fastest part was before that final km.

 

[Riek s]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXAGXCY0yUo

Yates attacked @ 700meters to go.

 

[Frobisher Bay]

Felt like he went to deep, probably to eager to get time on Mas/Roglic he went a bit to hard. If he paced better he might have had a better time/result. On the other hand he didn't prepare the climb so guess it is to be expected.

Hopefully he recovers from this since i think it might linger a bit more. His concurrent seemed to have paced a bit better. OFcourse he still rode it 40seconds faster than the others... almost 10s/km which is ...absurd. in his case it was 20s/km when he went...

Maybe I'm too excited as a Remco supporter, but this seems like a very odd comment. I wonder if anyone expected Remco to be the first of the favourites on this finish. Not even managed Evenepoel to be the first, he dealt everyone a blow of at least 40 seconds on an ascent of 3,8km? Now we're apparently nitpicking if he managed his effort stylishly and evenly enough? Barring CVOVID-issues which worry me very much, he's in pole position, two days before a time trial that has his name as winner written all over it. The only problem for me is that he didn't manage to get a stage win yet, despite being at least two times the fastest of the peloton.

 

[Lequack]

 

[Akuryo]

Seems that it wasn't too much of a stretch to have Remco as the favorite in this race. What a performance!

Fabio Jacobsen must be pissing his pants because if this continues, I don't think he'll ride Tour de France next year. And its even worse if your name is Tim Merlier.

Quickstep is the kind of team that would take Mørkøv, Jakobsen and another leadout rider to the Tour even if Evenepoel wins this Vuelta... look at the squads Uran had to deal with for example when he was one of the top favorites for the Giro back in his Quickstep days.

 

[Faserr]

Aerodynamic is important

 

[Extinction]

Quickstep is the kind of team that would take Mørkøv, Jakobsen and another leadout rider to the Tour even if Evenepoel wins this Vuelta... look at the squads Uran had to deal with for example when he was one of the top favorites for the Giro back in his Quickstep days.

Yea, but in fairness Uran is no Evenepoel in terms of the gravity factor within the Belgian cosmos.

 

[Extinction]

Needs an exorsist.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Is this a reference to Axelgaard's prediction? I read his bit about Evenepoel and the guy is f'ng clueless.

No, this is a reference to my own prediction. I had Evenepoel as my favorite, and obviously, some people mocked me for that.

And no, Axelgaard isn't clueless at all. He has some blindspots, but when youre previewing every single race in the world in length, youre bound to write some stupid ***.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Quickstep is the kind of team that would take Mørkøv, Jakobsen and another leadout rider to the Tour even if Evenepoel wins this Vuelta... look at the squads Uran had to deal with for example when he was one of the top favorites for the Giro back in his Quickstep days.

Nah, no way. Evenepoel is a much different animal, hes Belgian, hes the new Eddy riding on the biggest Belgian team. Urán was always a rider you didn't really need to support that much anyways.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

No, this is a reference to my own prediction. I had Evenepoel as my favorite, and obviously, some people mocked me for that.

And no, Axelgaard isn't clueless at all. He has some blindspots, but when youre previewing every single race in the world in length, youre bound to write some stupid ***.

I don't read everything he writes, i was talking about this preview. No problem with not declaring Evenepoel as one of the main favorites, but his arguments and motivation behind it were omfg mindboggling.

 

[Valv.Piti]

You simply cannot bring Mørkøv and Jacobsen + another leadout rider. What you can do though is bring some great rouleurs like Asgreen and Cavagna, some decent mountains domestiques and then you can leave Alaphilippe to himself on some of the stages that suit him. Bringing Jacobsen + entourage, that means Evenepoel has close to no real support since you simply cannot expect Julian to turn himself inside out for Remco like hes doing in this race when in France and in better condition.

If they do, we should collectively sue them.

 

[Riek s]

Maybe I'm too excited as a Remco supporter, but this seems like a very odd comment. I wonder if anyone expected Remco to be the first of the favourites on this finish. Not even managed Evenepoel to be the first, he dealt everyone a blow of at least 40 seconds on an ascent of 3,8km? Now we're apparently nitpicking if he managed his effort stylishly and evenly enough? Barring CVOVID-issues which worry me very much, he's in pole position, two days before a time trial that has his name as winner written all over it. The only problem for me is that he didn't manage to get a stage win yet, despite being at least two times the fastest of the peloton.

Don't be mistaken, i"m just as excited Remco supporter as you!

But since he didn't prepare the climbs of the vuelta, i think he has left some additional time here. Up untill now he is riding a semi perfect race (could have had a potential of up to 3 stage wins by now). But the last part of the climb, his face, the use of his back the struggle reminded me alot about the Giro where he did the same thing when he was absolutely done. I know out of experience that when you go that deep, you recover way more slowly then if you just hit the limit. Luckily it is a rest day, but i'm a bit afraid that this was a costly gain for him in the long run. (Hopefuly it is more of a Giro trauma then something else )

 

[Oldermanish]

Sure, but remember Remco prepared specifically for long, high altitude climbs for this; at Livigno, or was it Bormio, I can't remember.

Then I keep hearing doubts about his longue duree and high altitude prospects, and based on last year's Giro. However, this is absurd since at the time it was a botched attempt to pull a rabit out of the hat for all the reasons known.

Now, I ask myself, if Jai Hindley and Tao Geogeghen Hart can demonstrate a resigliancy at high altitude over three weeks (no offence to these excellent riders),why should Remco Evenepoel be any less physically capable? It would practically be a freak anomaly were he not. Of course, he still needs to demonstrate such, but at this rate, if he keeps it up, he'll win this Vuelta by 5 minutes to second place. So I just don't get, not the doubts, as I too harbor them, but the unreasonable skepticism, which is different. I mean with Remco were not exactly dealing with chopped liver.

I don't harbor doubts or skepticism on his abilities. I have reasonable benchmarks when it comes to racing and particularly GTs. Comparing output numbers from altitude camps and the skills of other riders outside of an actual race is speculation; which is largely what we do on this forum. I'm hopeful that, after coming back from a serious injury that he succeeds in this Vuelta.
I live at altitude and "train" to be more resilient. Just when I think I can manage a serious effort above 6,000' I discover another barrier at 6,100' and spend a few moments gathering my sh*t before going again. Until you're forced into that zone you may not know you're in Dangerville until you see the sign....

 

[Oldermanish]

So a great effort and crushed the competition no doubt, but not as fast as I expected. Not apples to apples, but :12 faster than Yates, :14 than Valverde / MAL, :17 than Pinot, :19 than Quintana, :23 than Crushweak, :31 than Mas…all 2018 performances.

He's learning what he can do. Not sure he spent alot of time worrying about what the guys behind him were doing and why should he? Manage what you can and win.

 

[Extinction]

Don't be mistaken, i"m just as excited Remco supporter as you!

But since he didn't prepare the climbs of the vuelta, i think he has left some additional time here. Up untill now he is riding a semi perfect race (could have had a potential of up to 3 stage wins by now). But the last part of the climb, his face, the use of his back the struggle reminded me alot about the Giro where he did the same thing when he was absolutely done. I know out of experience that when you go that deep, you recover way more slowly then if you just hit the limit. Luckily it is a rest day, but i'm a bit afraid that this was a costly gain for him in the long run. (Hopefuly it is more of a Giro trauma then something else )

While I respect your analysis, I beg to differ. Last year at the Giro he dropped like a stone from the back, the result of lack of racing after a horrific incident. There simply is no, nor can be, any comparison. Today he went to his limit from the front whilst dropping like stones his main rivals. It's nothing like being KOd by others from behind. He should recover just fine.

 

[BigCoward]

Anyone who is in Belgium confirm how mental the press are going currently?

 

[Extinction]

I don't harbor doubts or skepticism on his abilities. I have reasonable benchmarks when it comes to racing and particularly GTs. Comparing output numbers from altitude camps and the skills of other riders outside of an actual race is speculation; which is largely what we do on this forum. I'm hopeful that, after coming back from a serious injury that he succeeds in this Vuelta.
I live at altitude and "train" to be more resilient. Just when I think I can manage a serious effort above 6,000' I discover another barrier at 6,100' and spend a few moments gathering my sh*t before going again. Until you're forced into that zone you may not know you're in Dangerville until you see the sign....

I hear you, but Remco and all the pros prepare at altitude for these efforts. Surely his team knows his numbers above 2000 meters and are confident he can handle the thin air.

 

[303pbmf]

Anyone who is in Belgium confirm how mental the press are going currently?

They are very careful. It's only going to go mental when it's sure he"ll win.

 

[303pbmf]

I hear you, but Remco and all the pros prepare at altitude for these efforts. Surely his team knows his numbers above 2000 meters and are confident he can handle the thin air.

He trained on mortirolo and stelvio, I think he'll be fine. After TT I think he'll race differently as well.

 

[Riek s]

While I respect your analysis, I beg to differ. Last year at the Giro he dropped like a stone from the back, the result of lack of racing after a horific incident. There simply is, nor can be, any comparison. Today he went to his limit from the front whilst dropping like stones his main rivals. It's nothing like being KOd by others from behind. He should recover just fine.

His teammates stating in the interview that Remco told them he felt great at the beginning of the stage. He is also feeling great and happy with the steps so who am i to think he might have gone to deep

 

[Riek s]

well he prepared the ITT so can't wait . I probably won't know what to do tomorrow