Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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red_flanders said:
I don't think that's the calculus here. It's about what was promised to other riders (Jakobsen, Alaphillipe) about the Tour this year, and what was the "expected" pace of Remco's development. The latter I see more as an excuse to honor the former. Basically QS is OK holding him back a year (this was the original plan, etc.) to satisfy the other riders on the team. Other reason is they need a stronger team to support him at the Tour, and another year gives them some room to maneuver.

I don't see anything to indicate it's the sunk cost fallacy driving them except that eventually he has the goal of winning all 3 GT's. That's solvable in the future, I don't think that's driving a decision about this year.

All that said, I don't have any argument with folks like Boonen who think he should ride it this year. There are only so many chances.
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I think the framing of "We wanna win all 3" vs "We wanna win the Tour" matters a lot in this context. If all that matters is the Tour you probably go to the Tour. But Soudal-QS were never a team that only cares about Tour GC.

They may also think they don't have the team yet to win the Tour but somehow I don't see them getting a team of great climbing doms in one window
 
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Lequack

Lequack

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I agree. Plus TDF caters a lot to sprinters, they want every sprinter to come there so they make half the stages totally flat.
 
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Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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It just makes sense. They feel the supportteam is not ready in search of TDF glory. He wants to win all 3 (unlike the Vuelta which can act as a backup for a failed TDF, once you want to go 100% for the Tour, you can't ride the Giro for GC because it takes place 2 months before the TDF) so better do that now than to waste good years later on. Only alternative is to do it after he has won the TDF multiple times, and he's passed 30. Meanwhile Jakobsen might be on his final contract year, Alaphilippe might want to get a final chance to shine in the TDF. I can easily see why they would stick to the plan, even if the route somewhat favors him this year.

Berflamand said:
He's gone dark on Strava, no more uploads of his rides in Tenerife the last few days. At least I hope he's gone dark on purpose and there isn't something preventing him from training.
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He's clearly not being prevented from training. But he seems to be taking it easy, lol.

View: https://www.instagram.com/p/CpnibPArxFQ/
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
It just makes sense. They feel the supportteam is not ready in search of TDF glory. He wants to win all 3 (unlike the Vuelta which can act as a backup for a failed TDF, once you want to go 100% for the Tour, you can't ride the Giro for GC because it takes place 2 months before the TDF) so better do that now than to waste good years later on. Only alternative is to do it after he has won the TDF multiple times, and he's passed 30. Meanwhile Jakobsen might be on his final contract year, Alaphilippe might want to get a final chance to shine in the TDF. I can easily see why they would stick to the plan, even if the route somewhat favors him this year.
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Because of the routes, I think it's reasonable if he genuinely sees the Giro as a better GT target than the Tour this year.

However, given his versatility and additional seasonal goals (in this regard he is much more like Pogi than like Vingegaard) that better combines with the Tour, I don't think his seasonal plan will work out well. Or that is to say, that QS's plan won't favour Evenepoel. But maybe he'll prove me wrong by being good enough to contend for the win in Liège and the WCRR again (or as good as he would plausibly have been with the Tour instead of the Giro in his schedule).

The three main advantages of the Giro over the Tour are that the competition is generally weaker, that it has a different route (and weather) that may suit one better than that of the Tour, and that it is easier to combine with the Vuelta (at least for some). Maybe the first two factors will give him a better result than he would've gotten in the Tour, and maybe to a degree that outweighs the other considerations (I consider a Giro victory better than 2nd in the Tour, a Giro podium better than 4th in the Tour, and 3rd in the Tour better than 2nd in the Giro).
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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Netserk said:
Because of the routes, I think it's reasonable if he genuinely sees the Giro as a better GT target than the Tour this year.

However, given his versatility and additional seasonal goals (in this regard he is much more like Pogi than like Vingegaard) that better combines with the Tour, I don't think his seasonal plan will work out well. Or that is to say, that QS's plan won't favour Evenepoel. But maybe he'll prove me wrong by being good enough to contend for the win in Liège and the WCRR again (or as good as he would plausibly have been with the Tour instead of the Giro in his schedule).

The three main advantages of the Giro over the Tour are that the competition is generally weaker, that it has a different route (and weather) that may suit one better than that of the Tour, and that it is easier to combine with the Vuelta (at least for some). Maybe the first two factors will give him a better result than he would've gotten in the Tour, and maybe to a degree that outweighs the other considerations (I consider a Giro victory better than 2nd in the Tour, a Giro podium better than 4th in the Tour, and 3rd in the Tour better than 2nd in the Giro).
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I tend to think competition and overall difficulty of mountain stages tends to be more important than route. I don't think there's that many matchups where route matters that much. And overall mountain stage difficulty is more important than # of TT kilometers as well.
 
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houtdffan

Jul 20, 2019
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And what happens if Remco easily wins the giro and feels good afterward.

Why couldn't he ride the tour for experience, not with a dedicated team, with the understanding that if he somehow is in contention at the second rest day, or goes on an early escape and has a big lead at Puy de Dome, the sprinters and Alap become his donkeys for the remainder of the race
 
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peterfin

Feb 24, 2020
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While QS is no JV, they do have a team that can support him everywhere except on the steepest climbs. It should be sufficient. The team doesn't need to carry the weight of the race. Evenepoel can choose to ride defensive for 95% of the time. He has the capacity to make a major move almost everywhere except the sprint stages. And I also believe the TdF will suit him better. The weather during the Giro can be unpredictable and he has a history of failures when the cold hits him. I see the Giro as gamble. He either wins or fails. He has more to gain riding the TdF, not in the least having a chance to win it even if it is only 10%.
 
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peterfin

Feb 24, 2020
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houtdffan said:
And what happens if Remco easily wins the giro and feels good afterward.

Why couldn't he ride the tour for experience, not with a dedicated team, with the understanding that if he somehow is in contention at the second rest day, or goes on an early escape and has a big lead at Puy de Dome, the sprinters and Alap become his donkeys for the remainder of the race
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It's an option, regardless of his performance at the Giro. The problem is that it is basically impossible to aim for the podium at the Tour with the Giro in his legs.
 
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Big Doopie

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Should he win the Giro (not a sure thing whatsoever) he would be the current holder of two of the GTs at age 23.

Not too shabby.

He would also have truly tested himself at those long climbs at high altitude (something he had little of at last year’s Vuelta).

I really do not mind him checking off some big career wins/goals while Pog and Vingo slog it out at the TDF. if he can challenge them ever at such a race, another year and more GT experience would surely not hurt a bit.
 
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houtdffan

Jul 20, 2019
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
Who was the last one to podium Giro and Tour in the same year? How many have tried since, and how many racedays did they have? Even assuming Evenepoel is of the same calibre as Pog and Vinge, it's not exactly a trivial feat, regardless of the racedays.
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Froome 2018 was the last to podium in both

I never mentioned podiuming. I mentioned primarily racing for the experience. Only change the focus if the race plays out that way
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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houtdffan said:
I never mentioned podiuming. I mentioned primarily racing for the experience. Only change the focus if the race plays out that way
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You may not have mentioned podiuming, but the comment you responded to did, so that was what was being discussed.

houtdffan said:
Froome 2018 was the last to podium in both
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Right, Froome and Dumoulin. And what does Dumoulin's DS say about that now?

“Die twee grote rondes hebben Tom de nek omgedraaid”

Evenepoel already has more racedays than Dumoulin did in 2018 before he started the Giro.
 
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hfgon1

Jan 1, 2018
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I dont really understand why it's discussed. For me it's so clear that the Giro is the way better possibility this year. Remco is fantastic but he is not able to compete with Pogacar and Vingegaard on the hard climbs at the Tour de France yet. He would need to win time on other stages and while UAE and Jumbo have really strong teams to follow an attack those stages, there are just not much stages which give Remco such opportunities.

On the other side the Giro with 70km of individual time trialing and not so much supporting cast for the opponents (which are not even close to Pogacar and Vingegaard at the climbs) suits him perfectly and leaves him different opportunities for the schedule of the rest of the year. It's even possible to target a second grand tour with the Vuelta.
 
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Andy schleck

Andy schleck

Jul 18, 2020
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Lefevre knows more about cycling than all of us. He does not want remco yet in the tour, because he have the indications than remco doesn't yet have the capabilities to follow Vingegaard and pogacar in the climbs.

He wants remco in the giro because of the TTs and see him make more progresses in his climbing skills this year, and then face the best in the tour 2024.
 
Peyroteo94

Peyroteo94

Mar 20, 2022
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What a showdown between Rog and Remco in Catalunya. The route is perfect for a great duel. Let the best win and fingers crossed for no suspended stages
 
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Skijumper Roglic fan

Aug 28, 2021
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Remco vs Roglic in Giro could become a close duel. As close as Hindley vs TGH.

Remco and Roglic even look like bulls, with good upper bodies. You need that nowadays. Look how well former rower Jason Osborne rides. He was not far behind the best in UAE mountains. These guys, these bulls use all their body to climb these mountains. Remco is a powerful bull on his bike. In the ITT, he even is almost as good as Ganna is (!)…

Remco some day should try to win RVV, when he wants to add something new to his calendar. He even could win Roubaix with his power and endurance. But I think he would need to improve his technical skills on the cobbles beforehand.

Now I look forward to Catalunya: Remco vs Roglic, part I (part II will be Giro). Normally, I consider March‘s Catalunya as a rather „boring“ race, much weaker than April‘s Tour of the Basque Country. In 2023 however, Catalunya could become good.
 
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