Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Andre]

That depends which Ganna shows up. Not sure people have noticed, but Ganna's win ratio has taken a nosedive since last year. The team car not being allowed to ride right behind the rider, stacked with a wall of bikes on top, might have something to do with that. Out his last 6 TT's, Ganna has won... 1.

good to see you back Logic
Go Remco Go!

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I understand where you are coming from, still two week later after the WC he set a pretty impressive hour record. That was probably just a bad day in a really strange race ( I surerly did not expect Foss to win). He also lost some TTs in 2021, 3 in a row between Tirreno and Romandie., and he also lost the EC to Kung as he was working toward the WC. So i wouldn't say he is on the decline just yet. Still, getting the best of Remco won't be easy.

I didn't say or mean that he will only get worse. Or that he could never reach his former level again. Just that you can't argue that the past year he has not been a dominant TT'er at all, and his results don't come close to his 2020-2021 seasons. So for the moment i see no reason to assume he will be unbeatable at the Giro, which doesn't mean he can't win, obviously.

You can look for explanations for each of those lesser results, but it's a bit too much over too long a period to be coincidence imho.

 

[Netserk]

While he disappointed at the end of Algarve after going deep three stages in a row before that, he won the opening ITT in Tirreno with a dominant margin. His spring so far has been his best one, so if anything I expect him to be better in the Giro than in other years.

Last year in Tirreno, two weeks after Evenepoel had crushed Küng in Algarve, Ganna won the opening ~14 km ITT in Tirreno with a clear margin down to Evenepoel.

So for the opening ITT in the Giro this year, Ganna is the clear favourite. He should be fresh and in peak condition, and then he is by far the best TTer in the world. The only question mark is the hill in the end.

 

[Berniece]

So for the opening ITT in the Giro this year, Ganna is the clear favourite. He should be fresh and in peak condition, and then he is by far the best TTer in the world. The only question mark is the hill in the end.

He did target MSR and PR, so not sure if he's fresh and in peak condition.

 

[KZD]

While he disappointed at the end of Algarve after going deep three stages in a row before that, he won the opening ITT in Tirreno with a dominant margin. His spring so far has been his best one, so if anything I expect him to be better in the Giro than in other years.

Last year in Tirreno, two weeks after Evenepoel had crushed Küng in Algarve, Ganna won the opening ~14 km ITT in Tirreno with a clear margin down to Evenepoel.

So for the opening ITT in the Giro this year, Ganna is the clear favourite. He should be fresh and in peak condition, and then he is by far the best TTer in the world. The only question mark is the hill in the end.

I don't think that the hill in the end will make a significant difference as Ganna is also strong in these shallower gradientes.

However I can't agree that a rider that didn't win the Worlds, the Europeans or the Tour time trials last year, is by far the best TTer in the world.

 

[Riek s]

We can never rule out Ganna on a pan flat parcour.
Now the starting ITT with the small 1k climb shouldn't really be an issue for Ganna, (that climb itself should fit Roglic the best)
He has by far the most power to spare on such a parcour, which isn't technical at all. So unless their is a steep headwind, i think Ganna should be the favorite for the win. (he should be pushing 100W more than evenepoel i think.)

 

[Wookski]

What’s the consensus on Remco’s bike handling? He wasn’t really tested at the Vuelta and looked very sketchy in the closing kilometres at Liege.

 

[Salvarani]

What’s the consensus on Remco’s bike handling? He wasn’t really tested at the Vuelta and looked very sketchy in the closing kilometres at Liege.

He is not one of the best at that, but doesnt need to be if the others let him go.

 

[Wvv]

What’s the consensus on Remco’s bike handling? He wasn’t really tested at the Vuelta and looked very sketchy in the closing kilometres at Liege.

He'll never be MVDP, but he isn't below average anymore either. In Liège there was no reason at all to take risks, with the Giro in mind. He could've run to the finish in the last 5 km and still end up victorious.

 

[Didinho]

What’s the consensus on Remco’s bike handling? He wasn’t really tested at the Vuelta and looked very sketchy in the closing kilometres at Liege.

He was just trying to stay on his bike on the slippery descent, just like everyone else. And with being 1min30 ahead it's only normal to be carefull.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

What’s the consensus on Remco’s bike handling? He wasn’t really tested at the Vuelta and looked very sketchy in the closing kilometres at Liege.

I think he can descend well by taking risks but he isn‘t a natural on the bike. Attacking him on a descent and hoping he crashes has a slim chance of working but it would be very poor form. He also has a beautiful wife and as we learned during Romandie that makes you bad at descending.

 

[peterfin]

What’s the consensus on Remco’s bike handling? He wasn’t really tested at the Vuelta and looked very sketchy in the closing kilometres at Liege.

His bike handling his fine. If you are 1m30 in front in the final km of a wet, decending final of a monument your only goal is to reduce risk to a minimum.

 

[peterfin]

Regarding Ganna: we can doubt his shape but not his motivation. As an Italian he wants to shine and get that pink jersey. He will be difficult to beat.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Somebody mentioned the 2022 Tirreno TT which he won by "a clear margin" as an example. Well if you go back and actually look at that TT, you'd notice Evenepoel was behind 2s at the intermediate. After the split came a long straight section where Ganna got to overtake Albanese who started before him. Pogacar, who had actually lost 10s to Evenepoel at the intermediate, was not only able to not lose additional time in the second part, he was actually able to claw back time there... strange, no? See Pogacar got to overtake Tusveld where Ganna was able to overtake Albanese, which on a long straight section creates slipstream and a slingshot effect (you have to take into account the team car of the other rider as well). Evenepoel did not have the luck of starting behind an incompetent TT'er since he started behind Tratnik and was not so lucky to overtake anyone. So instead of losing an additional 10s in the second part, Pogacar closed the gap down to 7s at the finish, doing 13s faster than crude calculus would have you project based on the intermediate time. I think the first TT has yet to be invented where Pogacar is going to claw back time on Evenepoel on a long straight section by the coastline, lol.

He won this year's Tirreno TT in bad weather, that had been changing throughout the day, with a 28s gap to Kämna. The only guy at the start that could have realistically challenged him, said before the race he would take it easy.

Regarding Ganna: we can doubt his shape but not his motivation. As an Italian he wants to shine and get that pink jersey. He will be difficult to beat.

Of course he will be difficult to beat. But will his motivation be bigger for the opening Giro TT than for the WCC TT?

Anyway, He'll have to do it without his trusty sidekick, the teamcar, causing backdraft. Because we shouldn't be seeing this anymore with the new UCI rules:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637283098961358850

View: https://twitter.com/realBertBlocken/status/1637283098961358850

 

[DNP-Old]

Just five more sleeps until we will start our quest of conquering Italy, just like the man on his sleeves.

 

[Panda Claws]

Somebody mentioned the 2022 Tirreno TT which he won by "a clear margin" as an example. Well if you go back and actually look at that TT, you'd notice Evenepoel was behind 2s at the intermediate. After the split came a long straight section where Ganna got to overtake Albanese who started before him. Pogacar, who had actually lost 10s to Evenepoel at the intermediate, was not only able to not lose additional time in the second part, he was actually able to claw back time there... strange, no? See Pogacar got to overtake Tusveld where Ganna was able to overtake Albanese, which on a long straight section creates slipstream and a slingshot effect (you have to take into account the team car of the other rider as well). Evenepoel did not have the luck of starting behind an incompetent TT'er since he started behind Tratnik and was not so lucky to overtake anyone. So instead of losing an additional 10s in the second part, Pogacar closed the gap down to 7s at the finish, doing 13s faster than crude calculus would have you project based on the intermediate time. I think the first TT has yet to be invented where Pogacar is going to claw back time on Evenepoel on a long straight section by the coastline, lol.

He won this year's Tirreno TT in bad weather, that had been changing throughout the day, with a 28s gap to Kämna. The only guy at the start that could have realistically challenged him, said before the race he would take it easy.


Of course he will be difficult to beat. But will his motivation be bigger for the opening Giro TT than for the WCC TT?

Anyway, He'll have to do it without his trusty sidekick, the teamcar, causing backdraft. Because we shouldn't be seeing this anymore with the new UCI rules:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637283098961358850

View: https://twitter.com/realBertBlocken/status/1637283098961358850

I know the guy clarifies in the replies that he will announce the results soon but now the post just makes me crack up.
"My buddy and I are doing a study on X."
"Good for you I guess."

 

[Berniece]

Just five more sleeps until we will start our quest of conquering Italy, just like the man on his sleeves.

Good thing we don’t race in Sicily this year

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I know the guy clarifies in the replies that he will announce the results soon but now the post just makes me crack up.
"My buddy and I are doing a study on X."
"Good for you I guess."

They already did the study and he already stated in the replies it offers an advantage. He is also not going to be posting this tweet if the result is insignificant, since he has been hammering about the aero advantages of drag behind and in front of cars for years.

 

[Oldermanish]

They already did the study and he already stated in the replies it offers an advantage. He is also not going to be posting this tweet if the result is insignificant, since he has been hammering about the aero advantages of drag behind and in front of cars for years.

I'd say that photo alone demonstrates a very short period of the car's positioning in most cases. They are passing other cars so video could verify duration. Unless he has a stiff headwind there wouldn't seem to be much advantage. If he had an entire pack behind him that could be different. All of that being relevant or not; it wouldn't surprise me if the DS hoped for some advantage and wasn't above testing his theory for an advantage.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'd say that photo alone demonstrates a very short period of the car's positioning in most cases. They are passing other cars so video could verify duration. Unless he has a stiff headwind there wouldn't seem to be much advantage. If he had an entire pack behind him that could be different. All of that being relevant or not; it wouldn't surprise me if the DS hoped for some advantage and wasn't above testing his theory for an advantage.

It is well known that this offers a significant advantage and that this is the reason why Ineos started stacking the car with 8 bikes, for a TT behind one rider. Or do you think they expect him to puncture/crash 8 times? It is also the reason why the UCI has changed the rules so that team cars can not follow 10m behind a rider (as previously was possible) but now have to stay 25m behind the rider.

If you think this is an isolated incident, or only possible on a few sections of a TT, i fear you are mistaking.

 

[Oldermanish]

It is well known that this offers a significant advantage and that this is the reason why Ineos started stacking the car with 8 bikes, for a TT behind one rider. Or do you think they expect him to puncture/crash 8 times? It is also the reason why the UCI has changed the rules so that team cars can not follow 10m behind a rider (as previously was possible) but now have to stay 25m behind the rider.

If you think this is an isolated incident, or only possible on a few sections of a TT, i fear you are mistaking.

I don't think it would be isolated if a DS was right behind the rider; that'd be like having a wall of 6' teammates there, too. I was responding to the other photo where the car was farther back but as close as these images show it's pretty much aero-doping, for sure.

 

[Mayomaniac]

It is well known that this offers a significant advantage and that this is the reason why Ineos started stacking the car with 8 bikes, for a TT behind one rider. Or do you think they expect him to puncture/crash 8 times? It is also the reason why the UCI has changed the rules so that team cars can not follow 10m behind a rider (as previously was possible) but now have to stay 25m behind the rider.

If you think this is an isolated incident, or only possible on a few sections of a TT, i fear you are mistaking.

Let's not pretend that it's a one team/rider thing...

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Let's not pretend that it's a one team/rider thing...

I did not pretend anything. But it was Ineos that started the wall of bikes on top as i recall. Other teams just followed suit. It is also the rider who has to fight the biggest aero disadvantage (the biggest rider that has to punch the biggest hole in the air) who will have the biggest gain by the aero push. So let's not pretend this has not benefitted Ganna the past few years.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I did not pretend anything. But it was Ineos that started the wall of bikes on top as i recall. Other teams just followed suit. It is also the rider who has to fight the biggest aero disadvantage (the biggest rider that has to punch the biggest hole in the air) who will have the biggest gain by the aero push. So let's not pretend this has not benefitted Ganna the past few years.

I don't know if they started it (maybe it is like that), but there is footage of Jumbo doing it for Wout already back in 2019.

 

[Riek s]

don't think it matters who started it, but most top riders have been doing it for a while.
Would be great to have cars and motos in the front and back at bigger distances. (not only in TT).

Thinking about the double car incident in AGR. (Or Nibs going 100km/h..)